Arthur Hayes says the Bitcoin bear market ended at $58,000, and a Fed rate hike next week would not change that. Arthur co-founded BitMEX, the exchange that invented the perpetual swap in 2016, and now runs Maelstrom, his family office, as Chief Investment Officer. We recorded on 8 September, two weeks before BitMEX shuts down for good and one week before the Fed meets with the market pricing a hike. His argument is that none of that is what moves Bitcoin. The Treasury doubled its long-end buybacks, the Fed is buying bills through Reserve Management Purchases, and Japan is being asked to repatriate $2 trillion, which is why he thinks yield curve control is coming and why he only tracks the quantity of money, not its price. What we get into Why the $58,000 liquidation candle was the bottom, and what the $63,000 to $82,000 rip in six trading days was really about. The three signals that told him the Fed is trapped: Warsh holding rates, Japan's repatriation order, and the buyback upsize. Why raising rates is inflationary once debt is this high, and why he says the rate is almost irrelevant to Bitcoin. His altcoin book: Ethereum as the most hated mega cap, Ethena's 5x target, Uniswap to $20, and why Hyperliquid is too big for the same return. FLOP, his new network that pays AI agents in compute: no presale, no VC allocation, and how to mine it on a rented GPU. Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/k2a3kEgcijs Follow Arthur on X: https://x.com/CryptoHayes His essays: https://cryptohayes.substack.com Chapters 0:00 Intro 1:39 BitMEX shuts down on its own terms 3:10 The bear market ended at $58K 6:36 Warsh held rates: the Fed is already printing 8:41 Japan is told to bring $2 trillion home 10:41 The buyback upsize is yield curve control 11:51 Short gamma: why $63K to $82K took six days 13:02 What actually moves Bitcoin, in plain English 14:44 The dollar has to get weaker 17:16 Control the yield or the currency, not both 18:55 Why a rate hike is almost irrelevant 20:01 Hiking rates is inflationary under fiscal dominance 22:35 Is it time for altcoins yet? 23:33 Ethereum: the most hated mega cap 24:27 Ethena and Uniswap: tokens that pay holders 28:06 Do L2 tokens deserve a bid? 30:08 Why Robinhood built on Ethereum 31:30 Hyperliquid: best DEX, too big for 5x 34:29 FLOP: what are you actually paying for? 37:03 Food for your AI agent 39:05 A token launched the Bitcoin way: no presale 43:07 Why FLOP compute starts out almost free 45:17 Agents that eat, remember and coordinate 47:08 How to mine FLOP on a rented GPU 49:31 The airdrop: TechnoCore and 13 million agents 51:35 Dennis's to-do list and the anti-Sybil rule 54:27 Where to find Arthur Join The Coiners, our trading dashboard and community: https://thecoiners.io Follow Dennis on X: https://x.com/virtualbacon Courses, exchange guides and all links: https://virtualbacon.com Nothing here is financial, legal or tax advice. The content is solely the opinions of the speakers, who are not licensed financial advisors. Trading cryptocurrencies carries a considerable risk of loss.
