New South Politics

Matt OHern

Hear political news across the southeast. Hosted by Matt O’Hern, editor and publisher at NewSouthPolitics.com Covering governors such as Ron DeSantis of Florida, Brian Kemp of Georgia, John Bel Edwards of Louisiana, Andy Beshar of Kentucky, Bill Lee of Tennessee, Glenn Youngkin of Virginia, Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas, Senators Marco Rubio, Rick Scott, Raphael Warnock, John Ossof, Tim Scott, Lindsey Graham, Marsha Blackburn, Bill Hagerty, Cindy Hyde Smith, Roger Wicker, Josh Hawley, Roy Blunt, Mitch McConnell, Rand Paul, Tommy Tubberville, Katie Britt, Ted Budd, Thom Tillis and more.

Episodes

  1. 11/14/2022

    Trump vs Ron DeSantis - Round 1

    It didn’t take long for Donald Trump to attack the latest threat to his  2024 presidential campaign. Within hours of Ron DeSantis’ record-breaking re-election in Florida, Trump was downplaying the feat and taking as much credit as possible for the win. While DeSantis was soaking in the warmth of the national media spotlight, Trump was the target of criticism of conservatives across the board.  The vast majority of candidates who Trump endorsed were already on pace to win their election. Conversely,  candidates who suffered the worst loss margins or underperformances even in victory were the candidates who made Trump’s policies and personal support an integral part of their campaign platform. Following Trump’s criticism of DeSantis, many conservatives voiced their desire to turn the page from Trump, and move on to DeSantis, including columnists such as Ann Coulter and  respected conservative publications such as National Review, The Hill, and more. Even Trump’s former press secretary, Kayleigh Mcaneny said Trump should postpone his 2024 candidacy announcement until the Georgia runoff ends on December 6th.  DeSantis can proudly point to his present policies as his future plan meanwhile Trump is stuck on complaining about the 2020 election being stolen. Money always plays a huge role in elections DeSantis best chance for success is to build a coalition of support from other likely contenders who may opt not to run including Nikki Haley and Tim Scott. If you recall the 2016 Republican primary Trump faced a large field which divided the competition and enabled him to win winner take all states with less than 50% support. Voters may have already forgotten this key fact: In 2016, it wasn’t until many other competitors dropped out of the race when we saw Trump saying serious competition from the remaining two contenders Ted Cruz and John Kasich. If the GOP primary starts and ends with DeSantis as trumps only challenger, Trump won’t be able to deflect toward other candidates and will benefit from a fractured opposition vote as he did en route to his nomination in 2016. In some ways, Trump versus DeSantis could resemble the intense battle between Hillary Clinton and Obama in the 2008 Democratic Primary. Clinton was the overwhelming favorite and American’s already knew her backstory, which wasn’t as charming as her opponent. Trump is a known commodity with a support base that has virtually no room for growth conversely DeSantis is a rising star with plenty of blue ocean to expand his base of support. DeSantis is in a position where he can focus strictly on touting his positives on the other hand Trump is forced into a position where he must go negative on DeSantis rather than focusing on himself. Ultimately, it’s easy to see how conservatives will view DeSantis as a the most proactive protagonist for their fight in the culture war for America’s future. New South Politics, founded by Matt O’Hern, was created to inform and update voters in southern states on both about the latest developments surrounding the top political issues surrounding the 2022 midterm and the 2024 elections. Since 2004, O’Hern has worked with political campaigns in roles ranging from major projects involving nationwide digital marketing for Presidential campaigns, down to grassroots efforts  at the local level.

    Trump vs Ron DeSantis - Round 1
  2. 11/04/2022

    Predictions on the 2022 Midterm in Florida, Georgia and North Carolina

    There has been a lot of talk about a red wave but I think there will be at least one swing state where democrats may fend off feisty challengers. In Florida, I think Marco Rubio will benefit from Ron DeSantis popularity. A rising tide lifts all boats, and I predict that DeSantis will come close to a double-digit win over hapless Charlie Crist, with Rubio performing a few percentage points lower, beating Val Demings by a margin between four to six percent. In Georgia, Brian Kemp, another popular governor in the south, should defeat Stacey Abrams by 5 to 7 percent. While Kemp will undoubtedly help Herschel Walker elevate his vote tally, I can't picture Walker or incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock winning the needed majority of voters to avoid a Senate runoff election. For the record, Georgia is one of only two states that holds runoffs from General Elections that don't reach a majority. The other state: Louisiana. You can read more about Louisiana's potential Senate-control shifting election on December 10th, HERE. Finally, in North Carolina, the Tar Heel state,  Republican Ted Budd has led nearly every poll during the past two months vs Democratic candidate Cheri Beasley, but all of his margins have been just a hair above the margin of error. This race could go either way, but with the general momentum favoring Republicans in the final stretch, I predict a two-point margin of victory for Budd, moving him up from his congressional seat to the senate chamber. Independent voters in rural and suburban counties will make the difference, and you can see my piece on that factor in the North Carolina politics blog roll in the "News by State" section of NewSouthPolitics.com   New South Politics, founded by Matt O’Hern, was created to inform and update voters in southern states on both about the latest developments surrounding the top political issues surrounding the 2022 midterm and the 2024 elections. Since 2004, O’Hern has worked with political campaigns in roles ranging from major projects involving nationwide digital marketing for Presidential campaigns, down to grassroots efforts  at the local level.

  3. 10/10/2022

    October Surprises at Vanderbilt and the University of Florida

    Election polls are always interesting, but the fact that two universities in power five conferences are opening their doors to conservative thought may prove to be a leading indicator that Democrats greatly overestimated their momentum leading into the 2022 midterms. Last week, the University of Florida disclosed that Republican Senator Ben Sasse was the sole finalist to become the school's next president, and Vanderbilt yielded to Republican state legislators in Tennessee by pausing its gender transition services on minors. For more analysis on the latest political trends in the south, visit NewSouthPolitics.com Show notes: Sources for this podcast Reports on Vanderbilt pausing  gender surgeries for minors: NBC News: https://www.nbcnews.com/nbc-out/out-news/vanderbilt-pause-gender-affirming-surgeries-minors-rcna51445 New South Politics: https://newsouthpolitics.com/2022/10/10/vanderbilt-pauses-gender-affirming-surgeries-on-minors-after-pressure-from-state-leaders/ Original reports of Tennessee legislators warning Vanderbilt to stop the surgeries: NBC News: https://www.nbcnews.com/nbc-out/out-politics-and-policy/tennessee-gop-urges-pediatric-clinic-stop-providing-gender-affirming-s-rcna50181 The Hill: https://thehill.com/changing-america/respect/equality/3672134-tennessee-gop-tells-hospital-to-stop-providing-gender-affirming-surgeries-says-legislature-must-act-immediately/ New South Politics: https://newsouthpolitics.com/2022/10/04/tennessee-state-assembly-members-tell-vanderbilt-to-stop-youth-gender-transition-surgeries/ Vanderbilt's initial response to the state assembly members: https://news.vumc.org/2022/09/21/statement-about-transgender-health-care-at-vumc/ Report of Senator Ben Sasse being chosen as the next president at the University of Florida: Florida Daily: https://www.floridadaily.com/ben-sasse-ready-to-take-over-as-the-next-president-of-the-university-of-florida/ Tampa Bay Times: https://www.tampabay.com/news/education/2022/10/06/university-floridas-finalist-president-is-nebraska-sen-ben-sasse/ New South Politics, founded by Matt O’Hern, was created to inform and update voters in southern states on both about the latest developments surrounding the top political issues surrounding the 2022 midterm and the 2024 elections. Since 2004, O’Hern has worked with political campaigns in roles ranging from major projects involving nationwide digital marketing for Presidential campaigns, down to grassroots efforts  at the local level.

    October Surprises at Vanderbilt and the University of Florida

About

Hear political news across the southeast. Hosted by Matt O’Hern, editor and publisher at NewSouthPolitics.com Covering governors such as Ron DeSantis of Florida, Brian Kemp of Georgia, John Bel Edwards of Louisiana, Andy Beshar of Kentucky, Bill Lee of Tennessee, Glenn Youngkin of Virginia, Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas, Senators Marco Rubio, Rick Scott, Raphael Warnock, John Ossof, Tim Scott, Lindsey Graham, Marsha Blackburn, Bill Hagerty, Cindy Hyde Smith, Roger Wicker, Josh Hawley, Roy Blunt, Mitch McConnell, Rand Paul, Tommy Tubberville, Katie Britt, Ted Budd, Thom Tillis and more.