Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

Carson Investment Research
  • 4.8 (46)
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This podcast takes a deep dive into the market-moving events to cut through the noise and help you identify what really matters. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, and is a product of the Carson Investment Research Team.The information included herein is for informational purposes and is intended for use by advisors only, and should not be copied, reproduced, or re-distributed without the consent of CWM, LLC. Carson Partners offers investment advisory services through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Coaching and CWM, LLC are separate but affiliated companies and wholly-owned subsidiaries of Carson Group Holdings, LLC. Carson Coaching does not provide advisory services. 

  1. 2D AGO

    Is There Light at the End of the Tunnel? (FvF Ep. 181)

    In Episode 181 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into one of the most consequential geopolitical developments in recent memory, the ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis, and what it means for oil markets, global supply chains, and your portfolio. They break down what it would mean if the U.S. exits the conflict without reopening the strait, why Iran could emerge as a de facto regional hegemon, and how a potential toll system on tanker traffic could reshape global energy economics. They also explore why crude oil remains stubbornly elevated despite ceasefire signals, the growing "air pocket" in global oil supply as floating storage drains, and the long term instability risks including nuclear proliferation that could keep an ongoing risk premium baked into energy prices. On the markets side, Ryan and Sonu make the case that this pullback is unlike any bear market on record, with the S&P 500 taking an unusually long time to reach even a 5% decline from its peak. They walk through why the year to date drawdown is almost entirely explained by multiple contraction and not deteriorating earnings, and how forward EPS and profit margins continue to hit new highs even as headlines stay grim. The duo also examine the dramatic drawdowns in mega cap tech names, why the market may be pricing in a recession that isn't materializing, and why diversification across sectors, styles, and geographies is paying off in ways many investors haven't seen in years. The episode wraps with a Disney and Universal trip report, Sonu's allergy update, Ryan's eye health journey, and a big congratulations to his daughter Susanna on her college commitment to Penn State. Key Takeaways: Trump withdrawing without reopening the strait could establish Iran as the dominant regional powerA tanker toll system could generate $100B+ annually for Iran, reshaping Middle East geopoliticsThe S&P 500 decline is 100% multiple contraction; earnings and margins remain strong tailwindsForward 12 month EPS is up 7% in Q1 alone, with half of that gain coming during the crisisNo bear market since WWII has started with such a slow initial 5% decline, a historically unusual patternMega cap tech stocks are down 22 to 35% from highs, pricing in a recession that hasn't arrivedDiversification across value, international, commodities, and small caps is quietly working Jump to: 0:00 – Welcome and the Great Kit Kat Heist  2:10 – Trump's Potential Pullback and Hormuz Control  5:50 – Iran's Toll Scenario and Global Leverage  9:10 – Why Oil Stays Elevated Despite Peace Signals  11:55 – Energy as a Strategic Hedge Trade  16:10 – Hedging Activity and Encouraging Market Breadth  18:45 – Tanker Traffic Slowdown and Supply Time Lags  22:05 – Floating Storage Drawdown Explained  35:23 – Mega Cap Tech Drawdowns and Recession Pricing  41:10 – Slow Burn Selloff and What the VIX Is Telling Us  48:05 – Diversification Lessons From Lost Decades  56:50 – Final Thoughts and Listener Requests Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    1 hr

  2. 3D AGO

    Social Hour With Sam Ro & Frank Cappelleri (Social Hour Ep. 3)

    The Social Hour is back for its 3rd episode — and this one did not disappoint. Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are joined by two sharp voices from the industry: Frank Cappelleri, founder of CappThesis, and Sam Ro, founder of TKer. Fair warning: Sonu joins live from Epcot, Ryan gets an unexpected visit from housekeeping mid-stream, and the conversation somehow wraps up with a heated debate about Predator Badlands. But in between, there's a lot of substance. They dig into what's been driving market volatility, why closing near the lows matters more than the headlines, and what the technicals are actually telling us right now. Frank shares his screen and walks through charts on trading boxes, the VIX, and the tech-to-energy rotation that's hitting historic extremes. Sam breaks down why diversification still makes sense even when everything seems to move together, and what consumer spending data is, and isn't, telling us. Sonu connects the dots between oil supply disruptions, the Fed's difficult position, and what it would actually take to spark a near-term rally. Key Takeaways: Closes near the lows matter: 11 of the last 12 sessions closing weak signals bears are in controlTech vs. energy rotation: The ratio just hit its lowest weekly RSI reading in recorded historyPrivate credit check-in: Why it doesn't look systemic, yet,  and what to watchThe Fed's dilemma: Inflation keeps running hot; how long can they stay patient?Bitcoin watch: Still hasn't made a new low and that might mean somethingDiversification reminder: Mag 7 drawdowns are a painful but timely lessonFrank Cappelleri and Sam Ro are not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by these individuals may not be representative of CWM, LLC. Jump to: 0:00 - Welcome & Guest Intros  6:21 - Why Markets Turned Ugly  11:06 - Oil Supply Fears & What It Takes To Rally  22:20 - Private Credit Systemic Risk Debate  30:50 - Chart Read: Weak Closes, VIX & the 200-Day Line  43:36 - Energy Surge vs. AI Capital Spending  52:24 - Gold, The Fed Box & Bitcoin As A Risk Signal Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick  Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Connect with Sam: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sammyro/ • X: https://x.com/SamRo Connect with Frank: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/frank-cappelleri-cfa-cmt-a319483/ • X: https://x.com/FrankCappelleri Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    1h 4m

  3. MAR 25

    It Takes Two To Tango (FvF Ep. 180)

    In Episode 180 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, discuss a volatile market environment shaped by inflation concerns, rising yields, geopolitical uncertainty, and shifting investor sentiment. They break down why a rough week in markets may not be as unusual as it feels, how inflation is changing the way investors should think about diversification, and why bonds may not provide the same protection they once did. The conversation covers risk-on signals inside the market, falling consumer staples, rising yields competing with dividend stocks, and why inflation regimes change which sectors win and lose. They also discuss Federal Reserve policy challenges, why inflation may remain stubborn, and how corporate earnings and margins continue to support the broader bull market despite volatility. They also explore market history, including how often 5% pullbacks turn into corrections or bear markets, why midterm years tend to be more volatile, and why long-term investors should expect pullbacks as the cost of investing. From diversification strategies and managed futures to investor sentiment extremes and earnings growth trends, this episode focuses on separating short-term fear from long-term market reality. Key Takeaways: Pullbacks are normal: 5–10% dips rarely become bear markets Inflation shifts winners: Sectors and diversification strategies matter more than ever Bonds may not hedge: Rising yields challenge traditional allocations Sentiment extremes can signal opportunities: Record bearishness can be a contrarian buy Earnings remain a tailwind: Margins and profits continue supporting the bull market Jump to: 0:00 – Welcome! 1:06 – Disney Update & Livestream Announcement 2:02 – Monday Rally Then a Rough Week 4:18 – Iran Talks: Rumors vs Reality 8:50 – Risk-On Signals Inside the Market 12:19 – The Fed’s Inflation Problem Returns 19:51 – Favorite Finance Movies 21:49 – Chuck Norris Tribute & Jokes 25:04 – How 5% Pullbacks Usually End 30:35 – When Bonds and Gold Don’t Hedge 37:03 – Travel Chaos, TSA, Clear & Thanks 40:54 – Midterm Year Volatility & Closing Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com [inflation regime investing, market volatility midterm years, federal reserve inflation problem, diversification in inflation environment, bonds vs stocks inflation, managed futures diversification strategy, investor sentiment indicators, stock market pullbacks history, earnings growth stock market outlook, interest rates and equities, portfolio diversification strategies, macroeconomic investing outlook, inflation and profit margins, market corrections vs bear markets]

    46 min

  4. MAR 18

    Strait to Trouble (FvF Ep. 179)

    The most dangerous shortages are the ones you don’t see coming. What happens when global oil flow is disrupted and the Strait of Hormuz becomes a bottleneck for the world economy? In Episode 179 of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, break down what really happens when energy markets get stressed. From the difference between Brent crude and WTI crude to why strategic reserves can’t fix everything overnight, the conversation moves beyond gas prices and into the full inflation chain. They explore how diesel, shipping costs, helium supply, and fertilizer prices all connect—and how those pressures can quietly show up later in food prices and global growth. From bearish sentiment and ETF outflows to why rallies often start when positioning gets crowded, they look at what investors may be missing. The discussion touches on tech and software as “cash flow now” plays, the resilience of Bitcoin, and how crypto and stablecoins could play a role when global trade gets constrained.  Key Takeaways:  • Hidden shortages matter: Supply shocks ripple far beyond what shows up at the pump  • Inflation chain reaction: Energy impacts shipping, agriculture, and food prices over time  • Market positioning: Extreme sentiment can set the stage for sharp reversals  • Alternative assets: Tech and crypto may behave differently during inflation stress  • Policy impact: Energy disruptions complicate the outlook for rate cuts and inflation expectations Jump to: 0:00 Welcome and St. Patrick’s Day 1:15 The 11:30 PM Doorbell Mystery 5:50 Oil Prices And The Sweet Spot 8:05 Strait Of Hormuz Supply Shock 12:40 SPR Release And The Shortfall 16:40 Fertilizer Prices And Food Inflation 18:55 Market Bounce After A Rough Stretch 26:00 Sentiment Extremes And Capitulation Signals 33:50 Tech Leadership And Software Resilience 40:30 Bitcoin Strength And A Crypto Theory 46:00 Private Credit Fears And Financials 52:55 The Fed Trapped By Inflation 1:04:15 Closing And Live Stream Details 1:07:25 Standard Investing Disclosures Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    1h 9m

  5. MAR 12

    Live From Future Proof (Special Edition)

    Recorded live from the beach at Future Proof in Miami, this special episode of Facts vs Feelings brings Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, to the main stage for a wide-ranging conversation on markets, macro, and the forces driving today’s volatility. Against the backdrop of a rapidly shifting news cycle, Ryan and Sonu break down the dramatic swings in oil prices, the implications of geopolitical tensions for global markets, and what it all means for investors navigating an environment of inflationary growth. They also discuss why they remain constructive on equities despite recent volatility, how global market breadth is expanding beyond the U.S., and the portfolio positioning they believe makes sense in the current environment. From Fed policy and inflation trends to the strength of the labor market and signals from credit markets, the discussion highlights the difference between headline-driven fears and the underlying data shaping the economic outlook. Ryan and Sonu also explore where their outlook could be wrong, including risks tied to gold, small caps, and shifts in monetary policy. Key Takeaways Oil volatility matters: Large swings in energy prices can ripple through inflation, global trade, and market sentimentInflation may remain sticky: Core inflation near 3 percent could limit how aggressively the Federal Reserve cuts ratesGlobal markets are broadening: International equities have been contributing meaningfully to returns alongside U.S. stocksLabor markets remain resilient: Low layoffs and steady income growth continue supporting the economyPortfolio diversification still matters: Exposure across global equities, gold, and selective sector positioning may help navigate uncertainty Jump to: 0:00 — Opening and Live Show Setup 1:18 — Live from Miami! 3:20 — Oil Market Whiplash and Why It Matters 6:25 — Portfolio Positioning: Stocks, Gold, and Bonds 9:05 — Signs of a Global Bull Market 11:20 — Midterm Year Volatility and Market Corrections 13:55 — The Fed, Inflation, and the Labor Market 17:40 — How Carson Research Supports Advisors 19:40 — Where Our Outlook Could Be Wrong 23:20 — Signals from Tech, Staples, Credit, and Crypto 28:40 — CPI, PCE, and Final Thoughts Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    31 min

  6. MAR 11

    Talking About AI with Steve Hou and Kai Wu (FvF Ep. 178)

    Artificial intelligence continues to dominate headlines and investment flows, but understanding the technology behind it requires looking beyond the hype and into the structure of the ecosystem itself. In this episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, sit down with Steve Hou of Bloomberg and Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital to explore how the AI economy actually works, from the infrastructure powering it to the applications beginning to reshape industries. The conversation moves through the full AI stack, including semiconductors, computing power, models, and software layers, while also examining how competition, innovation, and investment are shaping the next phase of the technology cycle.  Key Takeaways • The AI stack matters: Chips, infrastructure, models, and applications each play a distinct role in the ecosystem • Compute demand keeps expanding: AI adoption continues to drive demand for semiconductors and data infrastructure • Competition is accelerating: Innovation across companies may push AI models toward commoditization • Productivity gains will vary: Some sectors may see faster AI-driven improvements than others • Markets are pricing the shift: Investor expectations around AI continue shaping technology and equity markets Steve Hou and Kai Wu are not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by this individual may not be representative of CWM, LLC. Jump to: 0:02 — Opening And Guest Intros 1:46 — Kai And Steve’s Quant Backgrounds 6:56 — Two ChatGPT Moments And AI Agents 10:45 — Compute Demand And Industrial Tailwinds 17:03 — Models Commoditize, Orchestration Rises 23:39 — AI, Inflation, And Energy As Constraint 31:17 — Europe, Korea, And Defense Capacity 38:02 — Software’s Reset And Duration Risk 46:30 — Timelines, Diffusion, And S-Curves 53:05 — Active Selection Across Regions 59:15 — Building Firms With AI Force Multipliers 1:03:49 — Mentors, Simplicity, And Implicit Knowledge 1:05:44 — Closing And Disclaimers Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    1h 9m

  7. MAR 4

    We’ve Got a Lot of Problems (FvF Ep. 177)

    Oil spikes. Gas jumps above $3. Inflation expectations shift in a matter of days. Suddenly the market isn’t debating disinflation or AI productivity. It’s asking whether we’re entering a new inflation shock. In Episode 177 of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, walk through what’s happening beneath the headlines. They explain how the Strait of Hormuz disruption is impacting oil flows, why gasoline prices move markets faster than geopolitics, and how rate-cut expectations shifted dramatically in just one week. The conversation moves from energy markets to ISM prices paid, AI-driven infrastructure demand, memory chip shortages, and what this means for inflation volatility in the years ahead. Key Takeaways: • Oil shock hits fast: Disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude and gas prices sharply higher, immediately shifting inflation expectations • Rate cuts repriced: Markets quickly reduced expectations for multiple Fed cuts as inflation data and energy pressures mounted • Inflation volatility regime: Elevated base inflation combined with external shocks increases the risk of short-term price spikes • AI demand adds pressure: Infrastructure buildout and memory chip shortages are contributing to near-term pricing strength • Economic backdrop still stable: Leading indicators suggest the economy entered this period near trend, not in recession territory • Portfolio construction matters: We believe diversifying beyond traditional bonds remains critical in a more inflation-sensitive world. Jump to: 0:02 — Setting The Stage: Problems Pile Up 1:08 — Gas Price Surge Hits Home 2:46 — Markets Sell Off And Tech’s Role 3:43 — Oil Jumps And Strait Of Hormuz Risk 6:15 — Energy, Diesel, And Food Cost Pressures 8:38 — Firsthand Gulf Perspective And LNG Shock 12:35 — Portfolios For 3% Inflation World 16:24 — Gold, Bonds, And Risk-Off Mechanics 20:07 — Fewer Fed Cuts And PCE vs CPI 24:55 — Small Caps, Rates, And Risk Appetite 28:40 — Fed Independence And Politics Reality 32:48 — Inflation-Volatility Regime, Not The 1970s 36:48 — Diversify Your Diversifiers Strategy 40:25 — VIX Spike And Geopolitics Playbook 45:10 — Trend vs Recession: Leading Indicators 49:22 — ISM PMI: Expansion But Price Pressure Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    53 min

  8. MAR 3

    Social Hour With Cullen Roche (Social Hour Ep. 2)

    The Social Hour format loosens things up, and this time Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are joined by Cullen Roche, founder of Discipline Funds and author of Pragmatic Capitalism and Your Perfect Portfolio. What makes this conversation different is Cullen’s dual lens. He thinks like a macro investor, but he builds portfolios like a financial planner. That combination leads to a deeper discussion around matching assets to liabilities, duration, inflation realities, and how advisors should think through long-term construction instead of reacting to headlines. Key Takeaways: • Narrative vs. numbers: Headlines move quickly, but underlying data often tells a steadier story  • Sentiment remains dynamic: Investor positioning continues to shift alongside economic signals  • Leadership rotation continues: Sector performance reveals subtle changes beneath the surface  • Macro themes persist: Growth, inflation, and policy remain central drivers of direction  • Perspective matters: Long-term discipline still anchors sound decision-making Cullen Roche is not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by this individual may not be representative of CWM, LLC. Jump to: 0:00 - Live Kickoff And Colin’s Books 2:50 - First Principles Over Financial Noise 6:10 - Origins Of Pragmatic Capitalism And QE 11:30 - From Anonymous Blogger To Public Voice 13:40 - We’re Savers, Not Stock Pickers 17:53 - Inflation Jitters And Market Divergences 23:30 - Diversification Vs Diversification 28:20 - Simplicity, Costs, And Portfolio Design 32:40 - Behavioral Bias: You Are The Risk 38:00 - Macro Claims And What Doesn’t Compute 44:00 - AI’s Disruptive Decentralization 50:10 - Labor, Layoffs, And Data You Can Trust 55:20 - Small Caps, International, And Factors Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick  Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Connect with Cullen: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cullenroche/  • X: https://x.com/cullenroche  Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    1h 2m
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About

This podcast takes a deep dive into the market-moving events to cut through the noise and help you identify what really matters. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, and is a product of the Carson Investment Research Team.The information included herein is for informational purposes and is intended for use by advisors only, and should not be copied, reproduced, or re-distributed without the consent of CWM, LLC. Carson Partners offers investment advisory services through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Coaching and CWM, LLC are separate but affiliated companies and wholly-owned subsidiaries of Carson Group Holdings, LLC. Carson Coaching does not provide advisory services. 

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