Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

Carson Investment Research
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This podcast takes a deep dive into the market-moving events to cut through the noise and help you identify what really matters. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, and is a product of the Carson Investment Research Team.The information included herein is for informational purposes and is intended for use by advisors only, and should not be copied, reproduced, or re-distributed without the consent of CWM, LLC. Carson Partners offers investment advisory services through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Coaching and CWM, LLC are separate but affiliated companies and wholly-owned subsidiaries of Carson Group Holdings, LLC. Carson Coaching does not provide advisory services. 

  1. 1d ago

    Here's Our Midyear Outlook 2026 (FvF Ep. 196)

    In this mid-year outlook episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, revisit their 2026 forecast and explain why they've raised their S&P 500 target from 12-15% to 15-18% for the year, while holding bonds steady at 3-5%. They walk through how AI capex has become a macroeconomic story as much as a market one, contributing roughly 90 basis points per quarter to real GDP growth, and why hyperscaler spending plans for 2026 and 2027 keep getting revised sharply higher. The conversation covers the labor market's quiet resilience, why business creation data suggests confidence rather than desperation, an inflation picture that isn't going away despite market expectations for Fed rate hikes, and a sector rotation story where former "value" stocks like Micron have become momentum plays almost overnight. Ryan and Sonu also dig into earnings estimate revisions, midterm-year volatility patterns, diversifiers like gold and managed futures, and swap stories from their World Cup travels before previewing next week's guest. [Key Takeaways] Carson raised its 2026 S&P 500 target from 12-15% to 15-18% at the midpoint of the year, with the index already up 11% total return year-to-date; bonds remain forecast at 3-5%.AI-related hardware and software investment (excluding data centers) has contributed about 45% of real GDP growth over the last five quarters, roughly 90 basis points per quarter.Hyperscaler capex estimates keep climbing: the five largest tech spenders were projected to spend $470 billion in 2026 back in November; that figure is now $740 billion, with 2027 estimates rising from $530 billion to nearly $900 billion.S&P 500 2026 EPS estimates have risen from $308 to $339 a share (up 10%) since the start of the year, with 2027 estimates up 12%, led by technology, energy, and materials.The labor market shows underlying strength despite headline softness, with unemployment at 4.2%, average payroll growth around 110,000 a month, and falling continuing claims.Inflation remains sticky due to incomplete tariff pass-through, reshoring-related cost increases, and rising computer/software prices, a reversal from the deflationary tech trends of the 1990s. Jump to: 0:00 - Welcome And The Midyear Setup 1:45 - Why We Raised The Stock Target 5:38 - AI Spending Shows Up In GDP 9:44 - The Consumer Looks Better Than Feels 14:20 - Business Creation As A Confidence Signal 17:08 - The Real Leaders Inside “Tech” 18:53 - Earnings Keep Getting Revised Higher 27:03 - The Inflation Problem Isn’t Gone 31:06 - The Fed Pause Versus Hike Pricing 35:00 - Second-Half Equity Playbook And Rotation 42:19 - Volatility, Breadth, And Midterm Patterns 49:06 - Bonds, Oil Headlines, Gold, Diversifiers 52:55 - World Cup Travel Notes And Wrap-Up 57:08 - Disclosures Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

  2. Jul 8

    The Summer Rally Continues (FvF Ep. 195)

    In Episode 195 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, celebrate the Dow's first close above 53,000 and break down the fastest 1,000-point milestone in the index's history. They unpack what's really driving the S&P 500's 10% first-half gain, splitting the return into earnings growth, margin expansion, and multiple contraction to make the case that this rally isn't a valuation-driven bubble. The episode also covers the widening gap between mega-cap tech and the "lag 7," how AI is quietly showing up in small-cap and industrial stock returns, record highs across advance-decline lines, and why a stretched momentum trade doesn't have to mean disaster for the second half. Ryan and Sonu also swap origin stories marking their four- and seven-year anniversaries at Carson, react to Team USA's World Cup exit, and preview next week's mid-year outlook. [Key Takeaways] The S&P 500's 10% first-half return was driven almost entirely by fundamentals: earnings growth contributed 18 percentage points while multiple contraction subtracted about 8.5 points, meaning stocks are actually cheaper than they were six months ago.Forward margins have jumped from roughly 14.5% to 16% since January, contributing 10 percentage points to the year-to-date return alongside 8 points from sales growth tied to nominal GDP.Technology gained 33% in the first half even as the "Mag 7" fell about 4%, showing how much dispersion exists within the sector as AI-driven names pull away from laggards like Apple and Microsoft.AI's influence now stretches well beyond big tech: roughly 12 of the Russell 2000's 23% first-half gain traced back to AI-linked names, with industrials contributing more than financials.Multiple advance-decline lines, including the NYSE, S&P 500, small-cap, and global Dow, hit all-time highs, a breadth signal that has historically preceded market peaks by about 11 months on average.The S&P 500 momentum index's trailing one-year excess return sits in the 96th percentile versus the last 40 years, prompting Carson to trim some momentum exposure in favor of diversification rather than trying to time an exit.Jump to: 0:00 - Welcome And Market Milestones 0:58 - Dow 53,000 And Summer Rally 3:26 - What Really Drove Returns 8:31 - AI Volatility Plus Sector Rotation 16:31 - Breadth Signals And Slingshot Stats 23:29 - Momentum Extremes And Risk Management 28:45 - Ryan’s Carson Origin Story 32:05 - Sonu’s Origin Story And AI Era 42:04 - World Cup Heartbreak And Leadership 47:57 - Payrolls Takeaways And Wrap-Up Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

  3. Jul 1

    Stop, Drop, & Rotate (FvF Ep. 194)

    In Episode 194 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, take on the "June swoon" and the powerful market rotation shaking up underlying sector leadership. They analyze insights from Sonu's time at the Economic Club of New York, covering Scott Bessent’s speech on national security industrial policy, Kevin Warsh's influence at the Fed, and the broader message of the global market. The episode also digs into an unprecedented market breadth anomaly, a massive weekly outperformance in healthcare, the state of small caps, and why the current bull market is far from finished. From Apple’s steep hardware price hikes and roaring nominal consumer spending to structural lessons from the 1990s dot-com bubble, the conversation connects the week's biggest headlines to the harder macroeconomic data underneath. Key Takeaways: The S&P 500 logged a five-day losing streak, yet advancing stocks outnumbered decliners every single day, a market anomaly unseen in nearly 30 years. Meanwhile, major advanced-decline lines hit all-time highs.While mega-cap tech paused, mid-caps rose 2.9% and small caps grew 3% month-to-date. Concurrently, healthcare staged an extraordinary 8% weekly jump, marking its largest weekly outperformance on record.Market warnings are often early; the S&P 500 doubled over the three years following Alan Greenspan's 1996 "irrational exuberance" speech. Navigating secular waves like AI requires strategic re-diversification, not exiting the equity market early.While inflation-adjusted real consumption sits around 2%, nominal spending rocketed at an 8.6% annualized pace over the last three months. Because corporate revenue is nominal, this massive wave of consumer spending continues to bolster corporate earnings.Driven by AI-related memory chip shortages, Apple announced steep price hikes including 30% for the HomePod mini and 55% for Apple TV. This demonstrates how one company's supply chain inflation becomes another tech supplier's margin expansion.Massive fiscal deficits at 6% to 7% of GDP mirror the late 1960s, continuing to inject liquidity and minimize near-term recession risks. We expect the Fed to keep rate cuts on pause as core services inflation remains sticky at a 4% annualized pace.While June represents a seasonally weak timeframe, July is historically the strongest month for stocks over the past 20 years, closing positive in 13 of the last 14 years. Jump to: 0:02 - Welcome And NYC Market Leaders 6:36 - June Swoon Turns Into Rotation 9:50 - Breadth Thrust And Sector Breakouts 16:24 - AI Momentum And Dotcom Lessons 27:40 - Inflation Pressures And Apple Pricing 33:32 - Fed Pause Risks And Fiscal Deficits 35:42 - July Seasonality And Wrap Up Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

  4. Jun 24

    Let’s Run It Hot (FvF Ep. 193)

    In Episode 193 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, talk about the passing of former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan and what his 18-year tenure actually produced for markets. Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting as chair featured a statement that clocked in at roughly 130 words and told markets almost nothing about how the new Fed intends to make decisions. Sonu makes the case that despite all the hawkish headlines, dot plot drama, and a two-year yield that jumped 16 basis points on Fed day (the largest single-day move on a Fed decision since 2008), actual real policy rates are more accommodative now than they were in March. The committee is split 9-9 on whether to hike this year, Warsh has opted out of the dot plot entirely, and inflation is running well above target, with core PCE likely to finish the year above 3.3%. Apple's announcement that iPhone prices are going up due to memory chip shortages puts a real-world face on the inflation story. PPI for semiconductor chips and printed circuit boards is running above 100% annualized. Meanwhile the Dow, Russell 2000, and S&P MidCap 400 all closed at all-time highs last Thursday, which is the market's own vote on whether any of this is a crisis. The episode closes with a look at sector leadership, why communication services being down 6% to 7% year-to-date while tech is up 33% is genuinely strange, and why momentum breaking down is the signal to potentially worry about and why it isn't breaking down yet. Key Takeaways:  Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan oversaw a 190% gain in the S&P 500 over 18 years, second only to William McChesney Martin. He also presided over two bubbles that burst within a decade, the tech crash, and the housing collapse, producing what remains the worst decade for equity investors in history.Kevin Warsh's first Fed statement came in at roughly 130 words, the shortest non-emergency statement in modern Fed history. He also declined to submit a dot plot projection. The practical effect is that markets are now pricing guidance from the other 18 members, who are not stepping back from the spotlight.The dot plot went 9-9 on whether to hike in 2026. Three months ago, 12 of 19 members expected at least one cut this year. That shift may explain the volatility. 428 S&P 500 stocks fell on Fed day, the broadest single-day decline of the year, but it does not automatically mean the Fed is hawkish.After subtracting the Fed's own inflation projections from its own rate projections, real policy rates are actually more accommodative now than in March, dropping from an implied 0.7% real rate to 0.5%. With core PCE running around 3.5% to 3.8% annualized, the real policy rate is effectively near zero.Apple's decision to raise iPhone prices due to memory chip shortages is the real-world confirmation of a broadening inflation story. PPI for semiconductor chips and printed circuit boards is running above 100% annualized.The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Russell 2000, and S&P MidCap 400 all closed at all-time highs last Thursday. The NYSE advance-decline line and the small cap advance-decline line both hit all-time highs the prior Tuesday. Jump to: 0:00 — World Cup Weekend and Father’s Day 3:07 — Remembering Alan Greenspan’s Fed 8:05 — A New Chair and a Short Statement 13:25 — Dot Plot Split and Market Shock 19:45 — Yield Curve Signals and Bond Surprise 24:35 — AI Supply Chains and Price Pressure 28:20 — The Case for a Dovish Fed 34:40 — Economy Strength and Running It Hot 37:10 — A Car Break in Reality Check 40:35 — Breadth Seasonality and Sector Rotation 53:20 — Closing Thoughts and Listener Requests Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

  5. Jun 17

    Talking Behavioral Finance with Nobel Prize Winner Dr. Richard Thaler (FvF Ep. 192)

    In this special live episode of Facts vs Feelings from Carson's Second Quarter Summit in Chicago, Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese sit down with Nobel Prize-winning economist Dr. Richard Thaler for a conversation that ranges from NFL draft strategy to retirement savings design to why markets keep producing events that are statistically supposed to be impossible. Thaler breaks down his "Loser's Curse" research on the NFL draft, explaining why top picks are systematically overvalued and why trading down is almost always the smarter move. Twenty years and a Nobel Prize later, teams have barely improved their ability to predict talent. The better-than-the-next-guy stat went from 52% to 53%. The conversation covers Bob Shiller's work on excess market volatility, what it actually means when 10-sigma events keep showing up every decade, and why the coming wave of major IPOs is forcing index providers into decisions that are anything but passive. On the behavioral side, Thaler walks through the three pillars that transformed 401k design: automatic enrollment, target date funds, and Save More Tomorrow and why the UK's approach to retirement mandates got the balance right. He also gets into mental accounting and why a $2 million gain in home equity has almost no impact on spending while a direct deposit hits a checking account and disappears immediately. Key Takeaways:  NFL teams have had 20 years, full quant departments, and AI-powered scouting to improve on Richard Thaler's draft research. Their ability to rank players better than a coin flip moved from 52% to 53%. Tom Brady was picked 199.The first pick in the NFL draft is not worth six second-round picks. Trading down is the winning strategy, and trading a pick this year for a pick next year where the going rate is one round works out to roughly a 120% implied interest rate.When stocks get added to the S&P 500, the price pops. Andre Shleifer proved it in grad school with a paper called "Do Demand Curves Slope Down for Stocks?" The answer was yes, and it was controversial at the time. Now everyone knows it and the SpaceX IPO is about to test it at a scale the market has never seen.Buying an IPO on day one looks exciting and has historically cost investors around 30% in underperformance versus the market over the following three years, according to Jay Ritter's data.Making enrollment the default in 401k plans, rather than requiring employees to opt in, had a bigger impact on retirement savings rates than any amount of financial education. Which box comes pre-checked should be irrelevant. It isn't.A $2 million gain in home equity produces almost zero change in spending. The same money landing in a checking account gets spent. Mental accounting is not a quirk; it shapes how wealth actually moves through the economy, and you can't model the wealth effect without accounting for where the money sits.This episode was recorded on 4 June 2026, prior to the SpaceX IPO on 12 June 2026.  Comments and opinions expressed at time stamp 18:40 and beyond regarding SpaceX and its anticipated public offering reflect information available at the time of recording. Jump to: 0:00 - Live From Chicago Kickoff 0:35 - Sponsor Message From Pimco 1:13 - Welcoming Nobel Laureate Richard Thaler 2:31 - The NFL Draft Loser’s Curse 9:03 - Can You Fire Your Team 10:31 - Why Markets Swing Too Much 18:35 - IPOs Index Rules And Demand Shocks 24:24 - Live T-Shirt Toss Intermission 25:47 - Nudges That Fix Retirement Saving 34:33 - Education Versus Mandates In Policy 38:45 - Fees Transparency And Trust 41:09 - Mental Accounting And The Wealth Effect 45:13 - Final Thanks And Sign-Off 45:42 - Important Disclosures Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

  6. Jun 10

    Live from Chicago with Jim Bianco and Jeff Kilburg (FvF Ep. 191)

    In Episode 191 of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, go live from Chicago with Jeff Kilburg, Founder and CEO & CIO at KKM Financial, and Jim Bianco, President at Bianco Research, for a wide-ranging conversation on where markets stand now and what could matter next. The episode centers on the bull market’s concentration in AI and large-cap tech, the durability of the rally, the role of active management, and why diversification may need to look different than it did a decade ago. The conversation also digs into earnings momentum, cross-ownership in AI, the impact of higher bond yields on long-duration assets, and whether software is being transformed or disrupted by AI. From bubbles and breadth to bond yields, oil shocks, and portfolio construction, the episode connects live market commentary to the forces shaping returns underneath the surface. Jump to: 0:00 — Live Crowd and Big Questions 1:48 — What A Bubble Really Means 6:00 — Earnings Momentum and AI Optimism 12:35 — Circular Ownership and AI ROI 16:05 — AI Replaces Software or Adds Cost 21:55 — 60/40 Is Not Dead Just Different 30:10 — Return Stacking and Better Diversifiers 36:30 — Oil, Inflation Volatility, and Bonds 41:40 — Concentration, Active Picks, And Dispersion 47:20 — Hard-Won Advice and Closing Thanks Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

  7. Jun 3

    Talking SpaceX IPO (FvF Ep. 190)

    In Episode 190 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, take on the SpaceX IPO and what it could mean for indexes, mega-cap weights, and the next phase of the AI trade. They’re joined by Blake Anderson, Director of Portfolio Management at Carson Group, for a wide-ranging conversation on market breadth, small caps, tech leadership, Google’s AI spending, software, and the growing influence of data centers and high-quality cash flows in today’s market. The episode also digs into the latest rally in stocks, the role of FOMO, the state of the bond market, and why this bull market may still have more room to run even as leadership narrows. From IPO mechanics and index inclusion rules to the economics of AI infrastructure, the conversation connects the market’s biggest headlines to the harder data underneath. Key Takeaways: The S&P 500 is up nine consecutive weeks. When it has gained more than 15% in April and May combined, June has never been lower and the rest of the year averages nearly 19% gains.Small caps are up 18% year-to-date and it seems like nobody is talking about it. A third of those returns trace back to three companies, all tied to data centers and AI infrastructure.SpaceX chose the Nasdaq, and Nasdaq changed its rules. Mega-cap companies can now be assessed for index inclusion just 15 days post-IPO instead of waiting six months.At a $2 trillion valuation against $19 billion in 2025 revenue, SpaceX carries a price-to-sales ratio above 90. Historically, IPOs with price-to-sales above 40 average a 94% first-day pop, but a negative 45% three-year return.A deal disclosed in the SpaceX S1 could see Anthropic pay up to $15 billion annually for data center capacity, nearly matching SpaceX's entire 2025 revenue in a single contract.Google is raising $80 billion in equity and has cut buybacks to zero. AI infrastructure spending has moved from optional to existential, with payoff timing still uncertain. Jump to: 0:00 — Welcome and the SpaceX question 1:19 — Markets rip higher after the spring rally 10:33 — Breadth, small caps, and hidden leaders 14:10 — FOMO signals and the bubble check 15:59 — Blake joins on tech and rates 20:48 — Google funds AI data centers 26:22 — Software’s AI reset and data moats 29:13 — SpaceX IPO filing and index rule changes 43:01 — IPO stats, valuation risk, and consumer wrap Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com #SpaceXIPO #FactsVsFeelings #investing #stockmarket #AI #techinvesting #IPO #smallcaps #SP500 #bullmarket #NVIDIA #Starlink #Anthropic #OpenAI #marketanalysis #portfoliomanagement #indexfunds #WallStreet #fintech #CarsonGroup

  8. May 27

    Deal or No Deal (FvF Ep. 189)

    In Episode 189 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, break down the disconnect between how people feel about the economy and what the hard data is actually showing. They connect the dots between oil prices, inflation expectations, Treasury yields, and why markets may not be reacting to geopolitical headlines the way many investors expect. It’s a real-time look at the K-shaped economy: tighter budgets at the bottom, resilient spending at the top. Ryan and Sonu walk through stretched momentum after an eight-week rally, sector rotation beneath the surface, and another massive earnings season. They also explain why private AI investments are quietly becoming a meaningful contributor to public company profits, something many investors still aren’t fully accounting for. Key Takeaways: Oil prices, Treasury yields, and inflation expectations remain tightly connected even when markets appear calm.Consumer behavior is splitting across income levels, reinforcing the idea of a K-shaped economy.Soft data like sentiment surveys continues diverging from hard data like earnings and employment.Earnings, buyback activity, and AI exposure are reshaping market leadership.Market momentum remains strong, but sector leadership underneath the surface keeps rotating.Bond markets may be the biggest force shaping Fed expectations and investor behavior going Jump to: 3:06 — Strait Tensions and Oil Prices 6:41 — The All-Electric Ferrari Debate 8:39 — Consumer Strain Signals 13:15 — Consumer Sentiment Hits Record Lows 21:37 — Home Water Leaks and Insurance Headaches 25:18 — Sector Breadth and Market Leadership 33:15 — Momentum Crowding and the Win Streak 37:41 —Earnings and Buybacks 45:01 — Private AI Valuations Inside Public Earnings 48:13 —Health Data and AI Coaching 50:44 — Chicago Live Show Details 54:00 — Grading Powell and New Fed Risks 1:05:12 — Fed Hike Odds and Week Ahead Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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About

This podcast takes a deep dive into the market-moving events to cut through the noise and help you identify what really matters. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, and is a product of the Carson Investment Research Team.The information included herein is for informational purposes and is intended for use by advisors only, and should not be copied, reproduced, or re-distributed without the consent of CWM, LLC. Carson Partners offers investment advisory services through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Coaching and CWM, LLC are separate but affiliated companies and wholly-owned subsidiaries of Carson Group Holdings, LLC. Carson Coaching does not provide advisory services. 

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