Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

Carson Investment Research
  • 4.8 (45)
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  • UPDATED WEEKLY

This podcast takes a deep dive into the market-moving events to cut through the noise and help you identify what really matters. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, and is a product of the Carson Investment Research Team.The information included herein is for informational purposes and is intended for use by advisors only, and should not be copied, reproduced, or re-distributed without the consent of CWM, LLC. Carson Partners offers investment advisory services through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Coaching and CWM, LLC are separate but affiliated companies and wholly-owned subsidiaries of Carson Group Holdings, LLC. Carson Coaching does not provide advisory services. 

  1. 1D AGO

    Live From Future Proof (Special Edition)

    Recorded live from the beach at Future Proof in Miami, this special episode of Facts vs Feelings brings Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, to the main stage for a wide-ranging conversation on markets, macro, and the forces driving today’s volatility. Against the backdrop of a rapidly shifting news cycle, Ryan and Sonu break down the dramatic swings in oil prices, the implications of geopolitical tensions for global markets, and what it all means for investors navigating an environment of inflationary growth. They also discuss why they remain constructive on equities despite recent volatility, how global market breadth is expanding beyond the U.S., and the portfolio positioning they believe makes sense in the current environment. From Fed policy and inflation trends to the strength of the labor market and signals from credit markets, the discussion highlights the difference between headline-driven fears and the underlying data shaping the economic outlook. Ryan and Sonu also explore where their outlook could be wrong, including risks tied to gold, small caps, and shifts in monetary policy. Key Takeaways Oil volatility matters: Large swings in energy prices can ripple through inflation, global trade, and market sentimentInflation may remain sticky: Core inflation near 3 percent could limit how aggressively the Federal Reserve cuts ratesGlobal markets are broadening: International equities have been contributing meaningfully to returns alongside U.S. stocksLabor markets remain resilient: Low layoffs and steady income growth continue supporting the economyPortfolio diversification still matters: Exposure across global equities, gold, and selective sector positioning may help navigate uncertainty Jump to: 0:00 — Opening and Live Show Setup 1:18 — Live from Miami! 3:20 — Oil Market Whiplash and Why It Matters 6:25 — Portfolio Positioning: Stocks, Gold, and Bonds 9:05 — Signs of a Global Bull Market 11:20 — Midterm Year Volatility and Market Corrections 13:55 — The Fed, Inflation, and the Labor Market 17:40 — How Carson Research Supports Advisors 19:40 — Where Our Outlook Could Be Wrong 23:20 — Signals from Tech, Staples, Credit, and Crypto 28:40 — CPI, PCE, and Final Thoughts Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    31 min

  2. 2D AGO

    Talking About AI with Steve Hou and Kai Wu (Ep. 178)

    Artificial intelligence continues to dominate headlines and investment flows, but understanding the technology behind it requires looking beyond the hype and into the structure of the ecosystem itself. In this episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, sit down with Steve Hou of Bloomberg and Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital to explore how the AI economy actually works, from the infrastructure powering it to the applications beginning to reshape industries. The conversation moves through the full AI stack, including semiconductors, computing power, models, and software layers, while also examining how competition, innovation, and investment are shaping the next phase of the technology cycle.  Key Takeaways • The AI stack matters: Chips, infrastructure, models, and applications each play a distinct role in the ecosystem • Compute demand keeps expanding: AI adoption continues to drive demand for semiconductors and data infrastructure • Competition is accelerating: Innovation across companies may push AI models toward commoditization • Productivity gains will vary: Some sectors may see faster AI-driven improvements than others • Markets are pricing the shift: Investor expectations around AI continue shaping technology and equity markets Steve Hou and Kai Wu are not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by this individual may not be representative of CWM, LLC. Jump to: 0:02 — Opening And Guest Intros 1:46 — Kai And Steve’s Quant Backgrounds 6:56 — Two ChatGPT Moments And AI Agents 10:45 — Compute Demand And Industrial Tailwinds 17:03 — Models Commoditize, Orchestration Rises 23:39 — AI, Inflation, And Energy As Constraint 31:17 — Europe, Korea, And Defense Capacity 38:02 — Software’s Reset And Duration Risk 46:30 — Timelines, Diffusion, And S-Curves 53:05 — Active Selection Across Regions 59:15 — Building Firms With AI Force Multipliers 1:03:49 — Mentors, Simplicity, And Implicit Knowledge 1:05:44 — Closing And Disclaimers Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    1h 9m

  3. MAR 4

    We’ve Got a Lot of Problems (Ep. 177)

    Oil spikes. Gas jumps above $3. Inflation expectations shift in a matter of days. Suddenly the market isn’t debating disinflation or AI productivity. It’s asking whether we’re entering a new inflation shock. In Episode 177 of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, walk through what’s happening beneath the headlines. They explain how the Strait of Hormuz disruption is impacting oil flows, why gasoline prices move markets faster than geopolitics, and how rate-cut expectations shifted dramatically in just one week. The conversation moves from energy markets to ISM prices paid, AI-driven infrastructure demand, memory chip shortages, and what this means for inflation volatility in the years ahead. Key Takeaways: • Oil shock hits fast: Disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude and gas prices sharply higher, immediately shifting inflation expectations • Rate cuts repriced: Markets quickly reduced expectations for multiple Fed cuts as inflation data and energy pressures mounted • Inflation volatility regime: Elevated base inflation combined with external shocks increases the risk of short-term price spikes • AI demand adds pressure: Infrastructure buildout and memory chip shortages are contributing to near-term pricing strength • Economic backdrop still stable: Leading indicators suggest the economy entered this period near trend, not in recession territory • Portfolio construction matters: We believe diversifying beyond traditional bonds remains critical in a more inflation-sensitive world. Jump to: 0:02 — Setting The Stage: Problems Pile Up 1:08 — Gas Price Surge Hits Home 2:46 — Markets Sell Off And Tech’s Role 3:43 — Oil Jumps And Strait Of Hormuz Risk 6:15 — Energy, Diesel, And Food Cost Pressures 8:38 — Firsthand Gulf Perspective And LNG Shock 12:35 — Portfolios For 3% Inflation World 16:24 — Gold, Bonds, And Risk-Off Mechanics 20:07 — Fewer Fed Cuts And PCE vs CPI 24:55 — Small Caps, Rates, And Risk Appetite 28:40 — Fed Independence And Politics Reality 32:48 — Inflation-Volatility Regime, Not The 1970s 36:48 — Diversify Your Diversifiers Strategy 40:25 — VIX Spike And Geopolitics Playbook 45:10 — Trend vs Recession: Leading Indicators 49:22 — ISM PMI: Expansion But Price Pressure Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    53 min

  4. MAR 3

    Social Hour With Cullen Roche (Ep. 2)

    The Social Hour format loosens things up, and this time Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are joined by Cullen Roche, founder of Discipline Funds and author of Pragmatic Capitalism and Your Perfect Portfolio. What makes this conversation different is Cullen’s dual lens. He thinks like a macro investor, but he builds portfolios like a financial planner. That combination leads to a deeper discussion around matching assets to liabilities, duration, inflation realities, and how advisors should think through long-term construction instead of reacting to headlines. Key Takeaways: • Narrative vs. numbers: Headlines move quickly, but underlying data often tells a steadier story  • Sentiment remains dynamic: Investor positioning continues to shift alongside economic signals  • Leadership rotation continues: Sector performance reveals subtle changes beneath the surface  • Macro themes persist: Growth, inflation, and policy remain central drivers of direction  • Perspective matters: Long-term discipline still anchors sound decision-making Cullen Roche is not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by this individual may not be representative of CWM, LLC. Jump to: 0:00 - Live Kickoff And Colin’s Books 2:50 - First Principles Over Financial Noise 6:10 - Origins Of Pragmatic Capitalism And QE 11:30 - From Anonymous Blogger To Public Voice 13:40 - We’re Savers, Not Stock Pickers 17:53 - Inflation Jitters And Market Divergences 23:30 - Diversification Vs Diversification 28:20 - Simplicity, Costs, And Portfolio Design 32:40 - Behavioral Bias: You Are The Risk 38:00 - Macro Claims And What Doesn’t Compute 44:00 - AI’s Disruptive Decentralization 50:10 - Labor, Layoffs, And Data You Can Trust 55:20 - Small Caps, International, And Factors Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick  Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Connect with Cullen: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cullenroche/  • X: https://x.com/cullenroche  Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    1h 2m

  5. FEB 25

    No Tariffs for You! (Ep. 176)

    A Supreme Court decision wipes out a major tariff mechanism, GDP comes in softer than expected, and AI fears collide with an AI spending boom. On the surface, it feels like three separate stories. In Episode 176 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, connect the dots and ask a bigger question: what actually changed, and what simply made headlines? They break down the Court’s ruling on IEEPA tariffs, what it means for policy going into a midterm year, and why markets barely flinched. From there, the conversation shifts to fourth-quarter GDP, where a weak headline number masked far stronger private demand beneath the surface. The episode then moves into the AI debate, examining the surge in hardware and software investment, the role of energy and power demand, and the viral “AI crash” scenario that sparked fears of a white-collar doom loop. Along the way, they explore global market leadership, sector dispersion, and why human behavior still sits at the center of economic outcomes even in a world shaped by algorithms. Key Takeaways: • Tariff authority reset: The Supreme Court’s ruling removed a major executive tariff tool, reinforcing checks and balances while reducing policy uncertainty • GDP weakness needs context: A government shutdown distorted headline growth, while private demand remained solid • AI spending is real: Hardware and software investment tied to AI contributed meaningfully to 2025 growth • Scenario vs. reality: Extreme AI displacement models raise important questions, but macro consistency and demand dynamics matter • Market dispersion is widening: Software weakness, industrial strength, and global outperformance highlight a split beneath the surface Jump to: 0:00 — Tariff Shock And Supreme Court Ruling 5:30 — Market Reaction, Odds And Policy Limits 9:40 — Tariff Refunds And Who Ultimately Paid 13:50 — China, Trade Winners And Political Timelines 22:00 — GDP Miss Explained And Core Demand Strength 31:00 — AI Capex Surge: Chips, Software And Scale 35:00 — Power Demand, Energy And Inflation Pressures 38:30 — The AI Doom Loop Scenario Debate 47:40 — Market Split: Semis, Software And Global Leaders 55:00 — Portfolio Implications And The Human Edge Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    1h 5m

  6. FEB 18

    A Tale Of Two Markets (Ep. 175)

    Markets keep climbing, headlines keep swinging, and yet sentiment still feels stuck somewhere between cautious and confused. In Episode 175 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, zoom out to examine what is actually driving markets right now and where investors may be misreading the signals. From shifting expectations around growth and inflation to the way earnings, liquidity, and policy are interacting beneath the surface, they separate the emotional narrative from the measurable data. The conversation moves through current market leadership, valuation concerns, recession odds, and the risks that deserve attention without overreacting to every headline. They also explore what history suggests about similar environments, how positioning can amplify volatility, and why staying disciplined often feels hardest right when it matters most. Key Takeaways: • Earnings remain the foundation: Corporate profits continue to anchor market strength, even as narratives shift week to week  • Sentiment lags fundamentals: Investor psychology still reflects caution despite improving breadth and resilient data  • Policy and liquidity matter: Rate expectations, fiscal dynamics, and capital flows are shaping the next phase of returns  • Volatility is part of the process: Pullbacks and headline shocks fit within historical patterns of ongoing expansions  • Discipline beats drama: Long-term investors benefit more from structure and perspective than from reacting to every news cycle Jump to: 0:00 - New Titles And Warm-Up Banter 2:42 - Framing A Tale Of Two Markets 5:10 - Sector Splits And Market Breadth 11:55 - Global Equity Strength And Style Shifts 16:30 - AI Shockwaves Across Industries 22:40 - Tech’s Three Tracks: Software, Semis, Telecom 27:35 - Short Interest, Contrarian Signals In Tech 31:30 - International Rallies And Country Leaders 37:15 - Jobs Revisions And Labor Market Reality 44:20 - Youth Employment, AI Fears, And Data 50:05 - Spurious Correlations And Market Folklore 56:20 - CPI Details, Shelter Math, And Services Heat Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    1h 1m

  7. FEB 11

    Deja Vu All Over Again (Ep. 174)

    After a brutal stretch for software, AI-linked stocks, and crypto, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, step back to ask a familiar question: are markets reacting to real deterioration, or replaying last year’s fear cycle with new headlines? As Claude-triggered concerns ripple through software and hyperscalers, they unpack their theories on why prices have fallen far faster than earnings, how valuation compression has reached levels not seen in over a decade, and why sentiment has turned sharply negative even as the S&P 500 flirts with new highs. From there, the conversation widens. Ryan and Sonu connect record-setting AI capital spending to broader profit growth, explain why global markets like Japan and emerging economies are quietly leading returns, and revisit Bitcoin’s drawdown through the lens of software, risk appetite, and historical market behavior. Along the way, they explore why recessions remain elusive amid massive fiscal and corporate investment, why breadth continues to improve beneath volatile leadership, and why moments that feel uncomfortable often end up shaping the next leg of the cycle. Key Takeaways: AI fear is recycling a familiar playbook: Software and tech selloffs reflect sentiment shocks more than collapsing fundamentalsValuations reset without earnings damage: Multiple compression has driven declines even as forward profit expectations riseCapex is reshaping the cycle: AI investment has reached historic levels with implications for growth, margins, and inflationGlobal leadership is expanding: Japan and emerging markets are outperforming as breadth improves outside U.S. megacapsVolatility feels louder than it is: Flat index returns mask sharp rotations that reward discipline over reactionJump to: 0:00 — Kicking Off With Sports And Stocks 1:08 — Deja Vu: Tech Turmoil Returns 3:18 — The Claude Crash And Software Selloff 7:45 — Valuations, Momentum, And Narrative Risk 12:45 — Hyperscalers’ CapEx Arms Race 18:55 — Bitcoin, Correlations, And Sentiment 25:10 — Global Rotation: Japan Surges, Dollar Softens 30:20 — Dow 50K, Compounding, And Milestones 34:30 — Earnings Strength And Multiple Math 39:20 — Upcoming Data, Outlook, And Closing Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    58 min

  8. FEB 6

    Social Hour With Brian Belski (Ep. 1)

    Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP and Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, went live for the very first Facts Vs Feelings: Social Hour livestream on Friday, 1/30. They kicked things off with special guest Brian Belski for a relaxed, wide-ranging conversation that blended big-picture macro, markets, and a bit of fun along the way. Jump to: 0:00 - Live Stream Kickoff And Banter 3:45 - Belski’s Background And Career Arc 12:30 - Founding Humilus And Investing Philosophy 20:10 - Gold’s Selloff, Fed Debates, And Inflation 31:00 - Secular Bull Market Case And History 40:05 - Travel Detour And Airport Talk 45:10 - Earnings Versus Multiples And Tech Leadership 53:00 - Financials, Mid Caps, And Small Cap Opportunity 1:00:00 Advisors, Building A Firm, And Contrarian Mindset Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    1h 2m
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4.8
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About

This podcast takes a deep dive into the market-moving events to cut through the noise and help you identify what really matters. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, and is a product of the Carson Investment Research Team.The information included herein is for informational purposes and is intended for use by advisors only, and should not be copied, reproduced, or re-distributed without the consent of CWM, LLC. Carson Partners offers investment advisory services through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Coaching and CWM, LLC are separate but affiliated companies and wholly-owned subsidiaries of Carson Group Holdings, LLC. Carson Coaching does not provide advisory services. 

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