Predictably Irrational: Our Effort to Understand Human Behavior

Ross Miller

The human brain works in mysterious ways, and not always in the ways we think it does. We do strange things for the unknown reasons and we do common things often without thought. As a result, we are often unaware of how impulsive and predictable we can be. We often fail to think on the reasons that are behind our actions. In this podcast, students from a Japanese university explore their own understanding of these issues and hopefully, provide the listener with some insight into how our brains work and how to be more aware of our own thinking.

  1. Jan 23

    The "Free" Factor

    In this episode, the hosts explore how the word "free" acts as a powerful psychological switch that fundamentally changes human behavior. Drawing on the theories of Dan Ariely, the discussion examines the shift between market norms, where we act out of self-interest, and social norms, where fairness and community take center stage. From the competitive frenzy over Yakult 1000 to the quiet restraint shown at a free rubber band station, the team shares insights from a real-world field study to explain why "free" is not just a price, but a social signal that determines how we treat one another

    22 min

  2. Jan 23

    The Trap of the "Future Self"

    In this episode, hosts Michael, Emil, and Sota dive into why we consistently make decisions we know are bad for us, focusing specifically on the hot-cold empathy gap. They explore the psychological struggle of procrastination, explaining how our "cold" logical state fails to predict how our "hot" emotional state will behave under the pressure of a deadline. By comparing Dan Ariely’s research on student deadlines with their own local survey data, the hosts reveal that we are "predictably irrational" when it comes to trusting our future selves. The episode concludes with practical advice on moving away from unreliable willpower toward building smarter systems.

    12 min

  3. Jan 23

    The High Price of Ownership

    In this episode, student hosts Spencer, Angelo, and Nozomi explore the endowment effect. This is a behavioral bias where we value things we own more than they are objectively worth. They also discuss the IKEA effect, which explains our tendency to overvalue products we have personally put labor into, such as handmade items or assembled furniture. By sharing results from their own multilingual survey, the hosts examine how these psychological traps manifest differently across Japan, Italy, and the United States

    14 min

  4. Jan 23

    The High Cost of "Zero"

    In this episode, student hosts Khin, Hein, and May explore the psychological "zero trap" based on Chapter 3 of the book Predictably Irrational. The discussion centers on how the word "free" fundamentally changes human decision-making, often leading us to make choices that are logically inferior or more expensive in the long run. By combining Dan Ariely’s theories with their own original research, the hosts reveal why we are willing to sacrifice quality and time just to avoid paying a single cent (or yen).

    11 min

  5. Jan 23

    The Trap of Endless Options

    In this episode, student hosts Hasib, Daisuke, and Itsuki explore why humans have a psychological impulse to keep every door open, even when having too many choices becomes counterproductive. Drawing on the theories of Dan Ariely, the hosts discuss how the fear of losing options leads to stress, exhaustion, and a lack of focus in student life. They conclude that closing doors is not a loss of freedom, but a necessary commitment that allows for growth and better results

    13 min

  6. Jan 23

    The Battle Between Pleasure and Productivity

    In this episode, student hosts Adrian, Ryo, and Tomoka explore the universal struggle of procrastination and self-control. By examining why we often choose immediate pleasure over long-term goals, the hosts discuss how human behavior is predictably irrational when it comes to managing time and distractions,. The episode features a breakdown of a famous MIT classroom experiment regarding deadlines, original survey data from university students, and personal stories about the "autopilot" nature of social media scrolling.

    17 min

  7. Jan 23

    Why We Overvalue Our Own Effort

    In this episode, hosts Karei and Mari explore the psychological tendencies that lead us to make predictably irrational decisions. Drawing on concepts from the book Predictably Irrational, the duo discusses the IKEA effect—the tendency to overvalue products we have built ourselves—and the sunk cost effect, which explains why we struggle to let go of projects or experiences after investing time or money into them. Through survey data and relatable examples, they examine how emotional attachment and the fear of wastefulness (In Japanese: "mottainai") often override objective logic in our daily lives

    10 min

  8. 01/28/2025

    Logical Fallacies

    For our final episode of Season 3, we’re diving into Logical Fallacies—those deceptive thinking traps that can undermine even our most well-reasoned arguments. From slippery slopes to false dilemmas, our student presenters will break down common fallacies and share insights from their research on how these errors affect decision-making and communication. Thanks for joining us this season! We will be back with more episodes in January 2026!

    13 min
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The human brain works in mysterious ways, and not always in the ways we think it does. We do strange things for the unknown reasons and we do common things often without thought. As a result, we are often unaware of how impulsive and predictable we can be. We often fail to think on the reasons that are behind our actions. In this podcast, students from a Japanese university explore their own understanding of these issues and hopefully, provide the listener with some insight into how our brains work and how to be more aware of our own thinking.

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