Heller-Hurwicz Office Hours

Heller Hurwicz

Welcome to Heller-Hurwicz Office Hours, a podcast featuring University of Minnesota economists and their research. In the podcast we’ll explore economic topics that impact our daily lives and discuss economic research aimed at improving our understanding of major societal challenges. We’ll highlight how careful economic research can inform policy decisions.

  1. 1d ago

    S4E1: After the Sledgehammer: Measuring the Impact of Trump's Trade Agenda

    More than a year after President Trump launched one of the most dramatic shifts in U.S. trade policy in decades, what does the evidence actually tell us? In April 2025, the administration imposed sweeping tariffs designed to reduce trade deficits, boost domestic manufacturing, and reshape America's role in the global economy. The policy sparked fierce debate, with supporters promising an industrial renaissance and many economists warning of significant economic costs. Since then, the path has been anything but straightforward, culminating in a landmark Supreme Court ruling striking down the administration's emergency tariffs. On May 5, 2026, economists Tim Kehoe and Mike Waugh joined us for this episode of Heller-Hurwicz Office Hours, to assess the first year of Trump's trade agenda. Drawing on the latest data and economic research, they examine how tariffs have affected trade flows, domestic production, prices, and supply chains—and whether the results align with the administration's goals. The conversation explores what economists have learned from this unprecedented policy experiment, what questions remain unanswered, and what the future may hold for U.S. trade policy in an increasingly uncertain global economy. Topics include: Trump's 2025 tariff strategy and its objectivesThe economic impact of broad-based tariffsManufacturing, trade deficits, and supply chain adjustmentsThe Supreme Court's tariff rulingWhat the data show after one yearThe future of U.S. trade policyHeller-Hurwicz Office Hours features University of Minnesota economists and their research, helping listeners make sense of today's most important economic challenges.

    27 min

  2. 2d ago

    LECTURE: HHEI Spring 2026 Roundtable: Debt, Demographics, and the Future of U.S. Fiscal Sustainability

    As the United States faces rising federal debt, it is also experiencing both a rapidly aging population and a falling birth rate, raising urgent questions about the long-term sustainability of the nation’s fiscal path. The Heller-Hurwicz Economics Institute’s Spring 2026 Roundtable explored how demographic change, entitlement spending and macroeconomic forces are shaping the outlook for U.S. public finances.Julie Bunn moderated a discussion with leading economists, Jesús Fernández‑Villaverde of the University of Pennsylvania and Hannes Malmberg of the University of Minnesota. Together, they examined recent trends in the national debt, the fiscal pressures associated with an aging population and the policy challenges the United States may face in maintaining long-run fiscal sustainability.The conversation provided insights into the economic forces driving federal debt dynamics and what demographic projections imply for the future of taxation, government spending and fiscal policy in the United States.

    1h 30m

  3. 12/13/2025

    S3E10: Drivers of Falling Fertility: Professor Michèle Tertilt on What Economic Analysis Reveals

    Why are people having fewer children and what does this mean for our economic future? U.S. fertility rates have been declining for decades, now sitting well below the replacement level needed to sustain population growth. This long-running trend carries major implications for economic growth, fiscal stability, and the future of programs like Social Security and Medicare.In this episode of Heller-Hurwicz Office Hours, Professor Michèle Tertilt breaks down what economic research reveals about the forces behind falling fertility. She discusses how comparison motives—the tendency for individuals to shape decisions based on the consumption, lifestyles, or choices of their peers—may be contributing to declining birth rates across advanced economies. Drawing on her recent work, she highlights what policymakers might consider as they debate proposals ranging from tax incentives to expanded childcare to reforms aimed at balancing work and family life.

    23 min

  4. 12/09/2025 ·  Bonus

    LECTURE: Central Bank independence: Critical for economic growth and stability?

    In a time of persistent inflation, fiscal strain, and global uncertainty, the question of central bank independence has taken on renewed urgency. Widely accepted as a cornerstone of economic stability, independence is now being reexamined as some governments push for more direct influence over monetary policy. Watch this December 8, 2025 webinar for a conversation with former top leaders of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank: former President, Gary Stern, and former Director of Research, Art Rolnick, and the Hoover Institution's John Cochrane exploring questions about appropriate governance of central banks in democracies–and the risks in governments exerting more political control to address today’s complex economic challenges. Panelists discussed historical perspectives, current research, and the future of central bank independence in an era defined by both crisis management and political pressure.

    59 min

  5. 11/21/2025

    S3E9: Automation, Adaptation, and Employment: Economist Kyle Herkenhoff on AI’s Labor Market Impact

    Artificial intelligence is advancing faster than most policymakers — and many workers — can keep up. In this episode of Heller-Hurwicz Office Hours, economist Kyle Herkenhoff joins us to break down what rapid AI adoption means for productivity, job displacement, wages, and the structure of the U.S. labor market.We explore whether today’s AI wave resembles the gradual diffusion of computers — or a deeper, structural transformation more akin to the shift from horses to cars. Herkenhoff discusses his recent research, how AI may reshape worker skill demand, and what these trends could mean for innovation, inequality, and long-term economic growth.

    23 min

  6. 10/28/2025

    S3E8: Prevention, Policy, and Political Deadlock: Economic Lessons from the Individual Market

    As the government shutdown stretches on, health policy sits at the center of America’s political gridlock. Recent legislative changes raise urgent questions about access, prevention, and long-term public health for millions who rely on the Affordable Care Act’s individual marketplaces for coverage. In this episode of Heller Hurwicz Office Hours, economist Assistant Professor Anran Li joins us to discuss insights from her new paper, “Commitment, Competition, and Preventive Care Provision.” We explore how competition among insurers, shifting policy incentives, and reduced coverage can alter investments in preventive care and what these dynamics reveal about the broader economic trade-offs of health reform under the Trump administration.

    24 min

  7. 10/14/2025

    S3E7: Plucking the Global Goose: Measuring Tariff Exposure in Trump's Trade War

    How far can governments go in taxing trade before the global economy hisses?In this Heller-Hurwicz Office Hours episode, we explore how to quantify which products, firms, and supply chains feel the sharpest tariff impact. Professor Tom Holmes joins us to unpack how Trump's tariffs target IP-heavy industries and global brands and walks us through a new framework for assessing tariff exposure. Drawing on his work-in-progress “Tariffs for Tax Revenue: Brands, Distribution Chains, and Tariff Choice,” we explore what it means to “pluck the goose” of global trade and what it takes to walk the line between efficiency and outrage.🔑 Topics: tariffs • trade policy • brand economics • intellectual property • innovation • revenue strategy • Trump economic policy • global supply chains • economic modeling

    26 min

  8. 10/02/2025

    S3E6: America’s Rising Debt: Demographics, Risk, and the Future of Fiscal Sustainability

    What does America’s increasing deficit mean for the economy? We explore the One Big, Beautiful Bill, demographics, and the risks to U.S. fiscal sustainability. America’s rising debt is one of the biggest challenges for U.S. economic policy. At the end of 2024, debt held by the public stood at 97% of GDP and is projected to reach 117% by 2034. The new One Big, Beautiful Bill adds even more pressure on the nation’s long-term fiscal sustainability. In this episode of Heller-Hurwicz Office Hours, Professor Hannes Malmberg of the University of Minnesota discusses how the One Big, Beautiful Bill impacts debt growth, what an aging population and rising inequality mean for the economy, and whether current fiscal policies set America up for resilience—or risk. Listeners will gain insights into: U.S. national debt trends and projections The economic impact of the One Big, Beautiful Bill The future of American fiscal sustainability and policy

    24 min
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Ratings & Reviews

5
out of 5
9 Ratings

About

Welcome to Heller-Hurwicz Office Hours, a podcast featuring University of Minnesota economists and their research. In the podcast we’ll explore economic topics that impact our daily lives and discuss economic research aimed at improving our understanding of major societal challenges. We’ll highlight how careful economic research can inform policy decisions.

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