Chip Stock Investor Podcast

Nicholas Rossolillo; Kasey Rossolillo
  • 4.6 (14)
  • Investing
  • Updated Weekly

Semiconductors are the heart of the modern economy. These small devices that manipulate the flow of electricity run everything from our PCs and smartphones to our cars to manufacturing. The semiconductor industry is at an inflection point of renewed growth, powering new movements like generative AI and electric vehicles. The Chip Stock Investor Podcast explores how semiconductors work, and especially the business of chips. Follow Nicholas and Kasey to learn how chip technology has become the engine of the world, and how to invest in its growth.

  1. 1d ago

    Is Amkor a Buy After Nvidia’s $3 Billion Deal?

    Amkor (AMKR) stock: a solid Q3 2026 and a bigger Nvidia deal, so why are we still passing? In this video: what Amkor actually does in advanced packaging, what drove its Q3 2026 results and margin jump, and why we’d rather own the equipment makers behind packaging than the packager itself. Sponsored by Fiscal.ai. See disclosure in the sponsor block below. Amkor posted Q3 2026 revenue of $1.99B (flat YoY), gross margin up about 400 bps to 18.3%, and net income up 50% YoY to roughly $191M. Free cash flow turned negative on $548M of capex, and Nvidia expanded its commitment to $3B total with a new $1.3B for South Korea. The stock now trades around a mid-teens forward P/E, but 2027 expansion spending could weigh on profits. That’s why we prefer packaging equipment exposure, like Applied Materials, which is raising its BESI stake to 20%. Chapters 0:00 - Amkor Q3 2026 and the AI Packaging Bottleneck 1:05 - What Amkor Does: Advanced Packaging Explained 2:35 - Why Packaging Is Now a Key Industry Bottleneck 3:20 - Nvidia’s $3B Commitment and the TSMC Partnership 4:50 - Q3 Results: Revenue, Net Income, and Free Cash Flow 6:15 - Segment Breakdown: Computing and Auto Up 37% 7:10 - Why an 18% Gross Margin Isn’t a Red Flag 8:45 - Balance Sheet Strength and Q4 2026 Guidance 10:15 - Valuation Reset: Should AMKR Trade at a Premium? 12:00 - Our Verdict: Why We Prefer Packaging Equipment — LINKS & RESOURCES — Join Semi Insider — $120/year Semi Insider is Chip Stock Investor's paid research service: all research as it happens, the CSI 100 + quarterly outlook, dashboard tools (Compare Companies, Reverse DCF, supply-chain mapping), weekly live Q&A, portfolio moves before execution, and the private Discord. Join: https://chipstockinvestor.com/features-and-pricing Free demo: https://demo.chipstockinvestor.com/ Sponsor — Fiscal.ai This video is sponsored by Fiscal.ai, the financial data platform we use at Chip Stock Investor. Get 15% off any paid plan: https://fiscal.ai/csi Disclosure: That is an affiliate link — if you sign up, we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. It helps support the channel. All our links & socials: https://linktr.ee/chipstockinvestor Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal. CSI doesn't own shares of Amkor as of publication. Positions can change without notice.

    Is Amkor a Buy After Nvidia’s $3 Billion Deal?

  2. 5d ago

    The Next AI Breakthrough Isn't Chips — It's What They're Made Of (with Shalini Sharma, Ph.D.)

    Is chip materials science, not just GPUs, becoming the next AI bottleneck? In this video: what large quantitative models (LQMs) are and how they differ from LLMs, why the shift to 3D chips makes new materials critical, and how SandboxAQ plans to use its $500M CHIPS award.Shalini Sharma, Ph.D., who leads semiconductor materials innovation at SandboxAQ and previously worked at Applied Materials, joins us to explain how AI and quantum-based simulation can screen millions of candidate chemistries before anything reaches a lab.We cover SandboxAQ's business model and four CHIPS focus areas: PFAS-free chemistries, catalysts and precursors, fab backup batteries, and rare-earth-free magnets. We also discuss what faster materials R&D could mean for suppliers like Applied Materials, Entegris, Qnity, and Shin-Etsu, and for onshoring the chip supply chain.Chapters00:00 Intro: Shalini Sharma and SandboxAQ01:15 LQMs vs. LLMs explained02:20 Why materials are the hidden AI bottleneck03:55 From 2D scaling to 3D chips and the Angstrom era06:30 CFETs, compound semis, and science as a search problem09:15 Do LQMs have a scaling law?10:30 GPUs, ASICs, and where quantum computing fits12:10 Applied Materials vs. SandboxAQ culture16:45 Favorite science meme17:20 The $500M CHIPS award20:00 Supply chain risk: 90% of key magnet materials made abroad20:55 How SandboxAQ makes money22:45 Three go-to-market paths, including LQMs on Claude24:15 Customers and the four CHIPS verticals30:20 PFAS in data center cooling fluids31:50 What this means for materials suppliers33:45 A new wave of industrial startups?36:40 Applied Materials' AI tools for process recipes40:05 Wild card: best spot in Palo Alto41:45 Wrap-up— LINKS & RESOURCES —Join Semi Insider — $120/yearSemi Insider is Chip Stock Investor's paid research service: all research as it happens, the CSI 100 + quarterly outlook, dashboard tools (Compare Companies, Reverse DCF, supply-chain mapping), weekly live Q&A, portfolio moves before execution, and the private Discord.Join: https://chipstockinvestor.com/features-and-pricingFree demo: https://demo.chipstockinvestor.com/All our links & socials: https://linktr.ee/chipstockinvestorDisclaimer: For education only — not financial advice. Do your own research.#SandboxAQ #MaterialsScience #Semiconductors

    The Next AI Breakthrough Isn't Chips — It's What They're Made Of (with Shalini Sharma, Ph.D.)

  3. 6d ago

    How to Value Unprofitable Businesses: Ouster (OUST Stock) Example -- Normalized Profit Calculator

    Ouster stock: what has to go right over the next 10 years to justify ~$41 a share? In this video: Ouster’s (OUST) Q2 2026 results, why plunging LiDAR sensor prices are actually good news, and how to value an unprofitable growth company with our new normalized profit and peer benchmarking calculator. Ouster grew revenue 56% year over year to $55M in Q2 2026, more than tripled sensor shipments to over 17,000, and pushed GAAP gross margin to 49%, all while holding operating expenses nearly flat. But it still runs a −37% operating margin and −28% free cash flow margin. Our normalized profit scenario shows today’s price already assumes about 30% annual revenue growth for a decade and a 20% FCF margin. That makes OUST a hold in our small bets basket, with a closer look if shares fall toward $30. Join Semi Insider and get access to the new "normalized profit" calculator! $120/year until November 30, 2026. Join: https://chipstockinvestor.com/features-and-pricing Free demo: https://demo.chipstockinvestor.com/ Chapters 00:00 Intro: Ouster (OUST) and our small bets basket 00:40 Where Ouster fits in the end-market cycle: auto, industrial, and physical AI 02:55 Q2 2026 results: color LiDAR and 56% revenue growth 04:20 Falling selling prices and the Jevons paradox 05:15 Q3 guidance, gross margin, and operating expense control 06:55 The financials: operating and free cash flow margins 08:45 Reverse DCF and “pretend profitability” 10:05 Peer group benchmarking: Hesai, Aeva, Teledyne 12:10 Normalized profit calculator walkthrough 13:55 Adding a margin of safety 15:10 Other checks: balance sheet, cash, and share dilution 15:55 Our take: hold, and the price levels we’re watching — LINKS & RESOURCES — Join Semi Insider — $120/year Semi Insider is Chip Stock Investor's paid research service: all research as it happens, the CSI 100 + quarterly outlook, dashboard tools (Compare Companies, Reverse DCF, supply-chain mapping), weekly live Q&A, portfolio moves before execution, and the private Discord. Join: https://chipstockinvestor.com/features-and-pricing Free demo: https://demo.chipstockinvestor.com/ All our links & socials: https://linktr.ee/chipstockinvestor Disclaimer: For education only — not financial advice. Do your own research. Ownership: CSI owns shares of Ouster as of publication. Positions can change without notice. #Ouster #LiDAR #Semiconductors

    How to Value Unprofitable Businesses: Ouster (OUST Stock) Example -- Normalized Profit Calculator

  4. Oct 20

    CoreWeave Bond Crash: Why CRWV & Neocloud Stocks Are Tumbling

    CoreWeave’s 9.75% senior notes saw yields surge past 15% as bond prices slid, dragging equity down with them. In this episode, we break down why rising borrowing costs squeeze fixed-price GPU contracts, what CoreWeave’s balance sheet reveals about its next debt raise, and how we’re adjusting our portfolio. Timestamps0:00 Why Neocloud Investors Are Hurting Right Now1:20 The 2022 Playbook: Rising Yields vs. Growth Stocks2:20 CoreWeave’s 9.75% Senior Notes Explained3:15 Balance Sheet Check: $5.5B Cash vs. Debt4:40 The Bond See-Saw: Prices Down, Yields Up7:35 Reason #1: A Flood of AI and Government Debt8:55 Reason #2: Is the Neocloud Bubble Ending?9:50 Bondholders First, Shareholders Last11:00 The 2015 Shale Bust Parallel & Our Portfolio Moves Links & ResourcesJoin Semi Insider: https://chipstockinvestor.com/features-and-pricingFree Demo: https://demo.chipstockinvestor.com/All Links: https://linktr.ee/chipstockinvestor Disclaimer: Educational only, not financial advice. CSI holds positions in CoreWeave and Nebius as of publication.

    CoreWeave Bond Crash: Why CRWV & Neocloud Stocks Are Tumbling

  5. Oct 19

    Wix at 7.5x Free Cash Flow: Deep Value or Value Trap?

    Wix took on $1.1B in 0% convertible notes priced near $210/share, then bought back $1.6B of stock, all with shares trading around $75. Is management seeing value the market is missing, or is WIX a value trap? Wix (WIX) has been one of the hardest-hit names in this year’s SaaSpocalypse. The market has been pricing software companies as if the AI labs will absorb everything. The numbers tell a more complicated story. Revenue re-accelerated 15% year over year to $563 million in Q2 2026, driven by price increases and by Base44, the vibe coding app builder Wix acquired in June 2025. Base44 crossed $150 million in annualized recurring revenue in May. In this video, Nick and Kasey break down Wix Harmony, Base44, and Base1, Wix’s proprietary LLM built to lower AI inference costs and lift gross margins. We walk through the balance sheet, the $1.6 billion net share repurchase, and an AI investment cycle that cut quarterly free cash flow from $156 million to $53 million. Then we run a reverse DCF and our normalized profit calculator, compare WIX to Shopify, Figma, and Adobe on valuation, and explain how we’re handling our own position. Our approach is a small-bets basket with a hard rule for reassessing. If you want the reasoning behind more names like this one, Semiconductor Insider covers the process in more depth. Get access to all our research, weekly live Q&A events, and a growing set of tools to build your process. Create your free demo account now at https://www.chipstockinvestor.com 📰 Why Chip Stock Investor Is Becoming a Software Business: https://chipstockinvestor.com/why-chip-stock-investor-is-becoming-a-software-business/ Linktree for all our socials: https://linktr.ee/chipstockinvestor If you found this video useful, please make sure to like and subscribe! 0:00 - Wix After the SaaSpocalypse: Dead or Mispriced? 2:00 - “Reports of My Death”: Why Wix Still Has Real Assets 3:00 - Wix Harmony vs. Base44: Two Paths to AI Site Building 4:00 - Base44 vs. the AI Labs: $150M ARR in Under a Year 6:00 - Base1: Why Wix Is Building Its Own LLM 7:45 - $1.1B Convertible Notes & a $1.6B Buyback 10:00 - Revenue Re-Accelerates 15%, Free Cash Flow Drops 14:00 - Valuation: Reverse DCF vs. Normalized Profitability 19:00 - WIX vs. SHOP, FIG & ADBE: Value or Value Trap? 20:45 - Our Decision: Sell, or Hold in the Small Bets Basket? ******************************************************* Affiliate links that are sprinkled in throughout this video. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy it, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction! Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal. CSI owns shares of Wix. #Investing #StockMarket #WIX #Base44 #Shopify

    Wix at 7.5x Free Cash Flow: Deep Value or Value Trap?

  6. Oct 19

    Is the Neocloud Bubble Popping? What TSMC Q3 Tells Us

    TSMC just beat the high end of its own guidance, and on the same day CoreWeave’s debt traded at a 15% yield. Here’s how to square the two, and why we’ve been flagging neocloud balance sheet risk for over a year. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) delivered another standout quarter in Q3 2026: $46.7 billion in revenue, a 66% gross margin, and a 58.7% operating margin. Nearly 80% of wafer revenue came from 7nm and below. High-performance computing (HPC) grew 22% sequentially to about 68% of revenue, driven by agentic AI and data center demand. CapEx guidance now sits at $60–64 billion as the foundry leader accelerates its second Arizona fab, evaluates Texas, and scales advanced packaging. Like ASML, TSMC remains capacity constrained, and the two-year growth runway looks wide open. The neocloud story is very different. We break down the balance sheet metrics we’ve tracked for CoreWeave and Nebius: CapEx-to-revenue, debt-to-equity, and debt-to-assets. We explain why a crowded, undifferentiated AI infrastructure market may not generate enough revenue to justify the debt. This isn’t the end of the AI bull market. It may be a mid-cycle shakeout that rewards quality, self-funding hyperscalers, and healthy balance sheets. We also share how we’re positioned. 🎥 Neocloud video referenced in this episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mkCxTqDVrYc This video is sponsored by Fiscal.ai, the financial data platform we use every day at Chip Stock Investor. Get 15% off any paid plan at https://fiscal.ai/csi If you want the reasoning behind more names like this one, Semiconductor Insider covers the process in more depth. Get access to all our research, weekly live Q&A events, and a growing set of tools to build your process. Create your free demo account now at https://www.chipstockinvestor.com 📰 Why Chip Stock Investor Is Becoming a Software Business: https://chipstockinvestor.com/why-chip-stock-investor-is-becoming-a-software-business/ Linktree for all our socials: https://linktr.ee/chipstockinvestor If you found this video useful, please make sure to like and subscribe! 0:00 - TSMC Q3 2026: A Record Quarter and a Neocloud Warning 0:45 - TSMC’s 40% Run and Its Role at the Base of the Chip Stack 1:40 - Q3 Breakdown: $46.7B Revenue, 66% Gross Margin, 7nm and Below 2:20 - HPC Hits 68% of Revenue and $60–64B CapEx Guidance 3:00 - Agentic AI Demand, Arizona Fab 2, and Advanced Packaging 4:25 - Long-Term Bets: High-NA EUV Photomasks and Sony Deal 5:20 - Is TSMC Still a Buy? The Two-Year Growth Runway 5:45 - CoreWeave Bonds Hit 15% Yield: What the Market Woke Up To 6:30 - Neocloud Red Flags: CapEx/Revenue, Debt/Equity, Debt/Assets 9:10 - Our Positions and the Coming Mid-Bull Market Shakeout ******************************************************* Affiliate links that are sprinkled in throughout this video. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy it, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction! Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal. CSI owns shares of TSMC. #Investing #StockMarket #TSMC #CoreWeave #Neocloud

    Is the Neocloud Bubble Popping? What TSMC Q3 Tells Us

  7. Oct 14

    ASML Q3 2026 Earnings: Sold Out Through 2028 & The New WFE Cycle

    ASML just reported Q3 2026 earnings, and management delivered a major update: the company cannot fully meet customer demand for the next two years. With net sales hitting €11.66 billion—up 55% year over year—these results reshape the trajectory for the entire wafer fab equipment (WFE) industry. In this episode, we break down the quarterly print and what extended capacity constraints mean for semi equipment through 2028: End-Market Shift: How memory chipmakers and installed base management offset softer logic spending to drive the top-line surge. Profitability & Cash: Net income near €5 billion (including ~€500M from ASML’s Mistral AI stake) and the rebound in free cash flow after several lumpy quarters. Q4 2026 Guidance: The setup for ~52% revenue growth and record gross margins near 57%. Revisiting Our 2028 Call: Why our earlier thesis on a potential 2028 equipment slowdown looks completely different now that ASML is weighing expansion beyond its planned 30% capacity bump. The Fab Five & Sector Strategy: What this supply crunch signals for Applied Materials, Lam Research, KLA, and Tokyo Electron following the post-June sell-off—and why macro equipment allocation matters more than single-stock picking at this stage of the AI cycle. Timestamps: 0:00 ASML Kicks Off Chip Earnings Season 1:10 The EUV Moat: Why Lithography Is a Choke Point 3:00 Sales by End Market: Memory Picks Up the Slack 4:10 Q3 2026 Revenue: +55% and the Lumpy Sales Cycle 6:00 Net Income, the Mistral AI Gain & Free Cash Flow 7:30 Revisiting Our 2028 Slowdown Call 8:10 Q4 Guide: +52% Growth and Record ~57% Margins 9:00 Capacity Constrained Through 2028: Why It’s Bullish 11:10 Fab Five Sell-Off: Is Equipment on Sale? 12:00 Allocation Over Stock Picking: Our Takeaway Sponsor: Try Fiscal.ai, the financial data platform we use every day. Get 15% off any paid plan at https://fiscal.ai/csi Join Semiconductor Insider: Get early access to our complete research, weekly live Q&As, and proprietary equipment tracking tools at https://chipstockinvestor.com Platform Vision: Why Chip Stock Investor Is Becoming a Software Business: https://chipstockinvestor.com/why-chip-stock-investor-is-becoming-a-software-business/ Connect with Us: https://linktr.ee/chipstockinvestor Affiliate links are sprinkled throughout our show notes. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction! Content in this episode is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal. Chip Stock Investor owns shares of ASML.

    ASML Q3 2026 Earnings: Sold Out Through 2028 & The New WFE Cycle

  8. Oct 13

    SpaceX (SPCX): Neocloud Giant or Overhyped AI Data Center Play?

    SpaceX (SPCX) is down from its post-IPO highs, and it’s quietly become one of the biggest neoclouds in the AI data center buildout. Is it hype, or is there a real strategy behind the xAI and Cursor deals? In this episode, we take an objective, numbers-first look at SpaceX as a public company, setting aside the Elon Musk controversy to focus on the business: Why a rocket and satellite company merged with xAI and spent $60 billion in stock on the AI coding platform Cursor. Breaking down the reported compute-leasing deal with Google, the path toward a $41 billion annualized run rate by year-end, and the goal of 10 gigawatts of compute by 2027. Looking at the feasibility and plan to put Nvidia Vera Rubin-based data centers in orbit. Analyzing 92% revenue growth in the June 2026 quarter, Starlink connectivity vs. AI segment revenue, adjusted EBITDA vs. EBIT, an $18.4 billion quarterly CapEx ramp compared with CoreWeave and Nebius, and a balance sheet with $100 billion in cash. Does SpaceX belong in our portfolio right now, and which space economy stocks are on our watch list? Timestamps: 0:00 SpaceX After the IPO: Neocloud Hype or Real Strategy? 1:05 Separating the Business From the Elon Musk Controversy 2:30 The xAI Merger: Why a Rocket Company Bought an AI Lab 4:00 The $60B Cursor Deal and Filling Its Own Data Centers 5:00 Google Deal, $41B Run Rate and the Power Outage Problem 7:05 10 Gigawatts by 2027 and Nvidia Data Centers in Orbit 10:00 Financials: 92% Revenue Growth and Shrinking Operating Profit 11:45 CapEx Ramp: SpaceX vs CoreWeave vs Nebius 13:15 Starlink vs AI Segment, EBITDA vs EBIT and the Balance Sheet 18:00 Is SPCX a Buy? Our Verdict and Space Stock Watch List Join Semiconductor Insider: Get our complete research, weekly live Q&As, and tools to build your process at https://chipstockinvestor.com Why Chip Stock Investor Is Becoming a Software Business: https://chipstockinvestor.com/why-chip-stock-investor-is-becoming-a-software-business/ Connect with Us: https://linktr.ee/chipstockinvestor Affiliate links are sprinkled throughout our show notes. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction! Content in this episode is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal. Chip Stock Investor holds no shares of SpaceX. Episode DescriptionTimestampsResources & Links

    SpaceX (SPCX): Neocloud Giant or Overhyped AI Data Center Play?
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4.6
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About

Semiconductors are the heart of the modern economy. These small devices that manipulate the flow of electricity run everything from our PCs and smartphones to our cars to manufacturing. The semiconductor industry is at an inflection point of renewed growth, powering new movements like generative AI and electric vehicles. The Chip Stock Investor Podcast explores how semiconductors work, and especially the business of chips. Follow Nicholas and Kasey to learn how chip technology has become the engine of the world, and how to invest in its growth.

Information

  • Creator
    Nicholas Rossolillo; Kasey Rossolillo
  • Years Active
    2023 - 2026
  • Episodes
    510
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Nicholas Rossolillo; Kasey Rossolillo
  • Show Website
    Chip Stock Investor Podcast

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