Week 4 gave us statement wins, close calls, major injuries and another shakeup in the NFL hierarchy. Aaron Schatz and Mike Tanier recap the biggest games from the weekend using DVOA, Post-Game Win Expectancy, playoff simulations and matchup data to separate what actually happened from what the final scores might suggest. 🏈 Rams 24, Eagles 20 Los Angeles controlled the efficiency battle despite the close score, finishing with a 96% PGWE. The Eagles went 0-for-12 on third down, averaged just 3.0 yards per play, and lost Saquon Barkley and Quinyon Mitchell during the game. The result also reshapes the NFC East picture, with Dallas now leading FTN’s division simulations. 🏈 Patriots 29, Bills 26 Was this the upset everyone saw coming? Buffalo blitzed Drake Maye 21 times but recorded only one sack, while New England finished with a 60% PGWE. The Bills still lead the AFC East in most simulations and remain the conference favorite. 🏈 Chiefs 30, Raiders 27 Las Vegas kept settling for field goals and paid for it late. A Dareke Young kick-return fumble helped Kansas City create separation, while Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer both produced strong receiving lines. Despite the win, the Chiefs finished with only a 62% PGWE. 🏈 49ers 24, Broncos 14 San Francisco remains on top of the DVOA rankings and still has not allowed a sack through four games. The 49ers’ offense exploded in the fourth quarter after Denver lost Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss, while questions continue about Denver’s slow starts offensively. 📊 Reverse PGWE Games Aaron and Mike examine the games where the result didn’t match the underlying performance, including Packers-Buccaneers, plus three near 50/50 outcomes: Browns-Steelers, Giants-Cardinals and Cowboys-Texans. That also leads into a bigger discussion about Houston and Tampa Bay as two of the strongest 0-4 teams by DVOA since 1978. 📈 DVOA Top 12 After Week 4 San Francisco stays No. 1, Jacksonville sits No. 2, and Kansas City, Buffalo and Baltimore round out the top five. The guys also discuss Minnesota’s extreme offense/defense split and Carolina posting the best offensive DVOA of the week. 🏈 Monday Night Football Preview: Falcons at Saints The show closes with Atlanta-New Orleans, including DVOA rankings, playoff odds and the Saints -1.5 / 47.5 total. Topics include: Rams-Eagles fallout, Patriots-Bills upset, Chiefs-Raiders, 49ers-Broncos, injury updates, reverse PGWE games, the best 0-4 teams by DVOA, updated DVOA Top 12 and Falcons-Saints on Monday night. What was your biggest takeaway from Week 4? Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
