At the Water's Edge

Scott
  • 4.7 (15)
  • News Commentary
  • Updated Weekly

The At the Water’s Edge Podcast explores national security and geopolitics from an insider’s perspective, looking at how national power, industrial policy, diplomacy, and military might shape our world and America’s place in it.

  1. 3d ago

    Saudi Arabia's Nightmare: The Reality of the Houthi Missile Threat

    Houthi missiles are hitting Riyadh’s main airport, and it’s turning into Saudi Arabia’s worst-case scenario. One strike killed at least 12 people and injured around 300. Flights are cancelled, and the oil executives Saudi Arabia was trying to host have pulled out. This week I trace how we got here, starting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman: his rise to power, the 2017 Ritz-Carlton purge, and his 2015 decision to go to war in Yemen with a military built to protect the monarchy, not to fight. A decade of escalation pushed Iran to arm the Houthis with better and better asymmetric weapons, and that same adaptation is now being used against U.S. forces. Then the bigger question: if the House of Saud can’t keep the kingdom safe, what happens to the deal that has kept it stable? I walk through what’s at stake, from global oil and food supplies to who controls Mecca and Medina. For more on the strategic side of the Iran conflict, go back and listen to the Escalation Trap series with Robert Pape. Want to go one step further? Members of The Briefing Room on YouTube get this week’s companion video, which looks at what most likely comes next if something happens to MBS. https://youtu.be/6E_cTl9em2A

  2. 4d ago

    France, Iran, and the Road to World War III: The Real Risk | Robert Pape

    Ten ships hit in the Strait of Hormuz in a single week, the most of the entire war. Houthi missiles shut down Riyadh's airport in the largest set of attacks in Saudi Arabia's modern history. Now France has confirmed it is sending radar and air defense assets to protect Saudi Aramco infrastructure at Yanbu, less than a couple hours' drive from Medina.Professor Robert Pape returns to explain how France's move could carry the war into Europe, and why the escalation trap is now compounded by a dangerous new dynamic: preemption.We cover:- Why foreign troop deployments are the strongest risk factor for suicide terrorism, from 9/11 to Mali- Why the Houthis have never been defeated, and how the fighting could open the door to AQAP- Radar orientation and why Saudi Patriots may have been blind to Houthi missiles- What the leaked three-day air plan has in common with Desert Storm's Instant Thunder- How four actors with incentives to strike first create a spiral that looks a lot like July 1914- MANPADS, drones, and the growing risk to commercial airlinersWant the full Q&A with Professor Pape? Join The Briefing Room on YouTube. Members get the complete Q&A the same day as the interview, plus members-only content every week.00:00 This week's escalation00:39 Professor Pape returns01:28 Ten ships hit in Hormuz, Riyadh airport struck02:28 France moves to defend Aramco at Yanbu05:00 Why this isn't a world war (yet)07:33 Foreign troops and suicide terrorism: Mali and 9/1114:23 MBS and the Saudi-Houthi war15:38 Yanbu, Medina, and the sectarian map18:45 Can French air defense even help?23:13 Everyone's in the escalation trap now24:30 The three-day air plan and Instant Thunder34:08 Preemptive spirals: a four-player game35:46 The illusion of control and the road to World War I38:15 How this becomes a true world war40:09 MANPADS, drones, and airliners42:45 Q&A preview

  3. 6d ago

    U.S. Brigades Last 24 Hours Against Ukraine’s Drones | MG Duane Miller

    What happens when a U.S. brigade trains against Ukraine's drone forces? They usually have to reset the exercise within 24 hours. Major General Duane Miller, until recently Deputy Commanding General of Security Assistance Group–Ukraine, explains why America is not ready for the speed of modern war. After more than two years watching Ukraine fight, MG Miller argues that the speed of learning is now a measure of national power. Ukraine pushes new tactics, software updates, and drone fixes to the front in two to three weeks. The U.S. averages over a decade to field a new weapon system. In this episode: - Why Ukraine's edge isn't the drones but the learning loop behind them - What happens when U.S. brigades face Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Force - Why Patriot software updates still move by courier - Why Ukraine has stopped wanting some U.S. munitions - How defense primes and procurement rules slow innovation - What the U.S. military should change before the next first battle Links: MG Miller's article, "The Speed of Learning: The New Measure of National Power": https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/speed-learning-new-measure-national-power-duane-miller-ldake/ Watch the full episode on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Had-NK89U_I At the Water's Edge is a national security and geopolitics podcast hosted by Scott Kelly, a former Green Beret. The views expressed are those of the guest and do not represent the official position of the U.S. Army or Department of Defense.

  4. Oct 9

    The Rise of the Mecca Alliance: Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia's Game Plan

    Fifty-nine days after it was signed, the Mecca Pact has been activated. Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey have agreed to send forces to defend the kingdom against the Houthis. The alliance itself isn’t the real danger. The danger is when it was formed. Scott breaks down how the Houthis pushed Riyadh to call in its new allies: strikes on four Saudi cities, attacks on the East-West pipeline that lets Saudi oil bypass the Strait of Hormuz, threats to Saudi airspace, and a drone the Saudis say was headed for Mecca. He separates what the pact is from what it isn’t, and reads the fine print on domestic approval, “all those responsible,” and Pakistan’s insistence that the pact is purely defensive. Scott also covers what Turkey can actually bring (combat-proven drones, a growing defense industry, and a conscript army that isn’t built for “away games”), why Turkey’s constitution puts treaty approval and troop deployments in separate articles, and why Yemen is nothing like northern Syria. Then Pakistan: nearly six decades of military ties to Saudi Arabia, a three-front squeeze at home, and a delicate role as mediator between Washington and Tehran. Finally, the big picture: with the U.S. tied down in its war with Iran, middle powers are building their own security order. Could alliances formed after a war starts create a 1914-style escalation chain? And why this is about state power politics, not a Sunni religious bloc. What does the Mecca Pact mean for Israel? The members-only companion episode is available now in The Briefing Room, our members-only community on YouTube: [MEMBERSHIP LINK] Follow Scott on Substack: https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg

  5. Oct 8

    The Most Dangerous Weeks of the Iran War Are Here | Robert Pape

    We’re in the most dangerous weeks of the Iran war since March, and the midterms are the reason. Professor Robert Pape returns to explain the wicked incentives pushing President Trump toward escalation before November 3rd, and why every option likely landing on his desk hands Tehran the advantage. Pape walks through the three clocks converging on the midterms. The USS Theodore Roosevelt and a second Marine Expeditionary Unit are closing within striking range of Iran. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve has plateaued while Iran strikes more tankers in Hormuz than in any week of the war. And inflation inside Iran, which Pape puts near 100%, is tempting Washington to try to break Iran’s economy with air power. He explains why striking Iran’s refineries could invite a retaliatory strike on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq facility that would hurt America more than Iran, and why landing Marines on Larak Island, Hormuz Island, or near Chabahar would hand Iran fixed targets without breaking its kill chain. We also cover the recent Tel Aviv flight incident, the drone threat that moved U.S. B-1 bombers out of an RAF base, and what history says about how long it takes a suicide terrorism campaign to reach the U.S. homeland once ground forces are committed. Want Pape’s take on whether the Mecca Pact pulls Pakistan and Turkey into this war, and whether the overlapping U.S. and Israeli elections double the danger? The rest of the conversation is available in The Briefing Room, our members-only community on YouTube: [MEMBERSHIP LINK] Read Robert Pape’s Substack, The Escalation Trap: https://escalationtrap.substack.com Follow Scott on Substack: https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg Watch on YouTube: [YOUTUBE LINK] At the Water’s Edge brings you insights beyond the headlines, with a practitioner’s view on national security and geopolitics. Hosted by Scott Kelly, former Green Beret and founder of Grayzone Advisory.

  6. Oct 4

    The Truth About Veteran Support Systems and How to Fix Them

    Veterans die by suicide at a rate 72% higher than their civilian peers, and women veterans at a rate 101% higher. Lyndsay Tkach, Wounded Warrior Project's Director of Mental and Brain Health Services, has spent twelve years working on that problem. In the series finale, she explains why she calls suicide "a human issue" rather than only a medical one, and what it would take to reach veterans at scale before a crisis hits. This conversation covers the risk factors that sit outside the therapist's office (financial distress, chronic pain, sleep problems, broken relationships), the difference between risk factors and warning signs, and how WWP screens every warrior who comes in through its financial, physical, and mental health programs. It also takes on a hard question: how do you screen a community that learned to lie on every health survey? Along the way, Lyndsay shares that one in four WWP warriors surveyed reported suicidal thoughts in the past year, why connection may be the most underused intervention, and why families need support too. If you or someone you know is in crisis, call or text 988 (Suicide & Crisis Lifeline), or reach the Veterans Crisis Line at 988, press 1. This is Episode 5, the finale, of Still Here, a five-part series produced in partnership with Wounded Warrior Project for Suicide Prevention Awareness Month. Catch up with Episodes 1–4 (Zach, Lindsey, Sam, and Joe) if you haven't yet. Chapters: 0:00 Cold open: the final chapter of Still Here 0:40 Welcome, and introducing Lyndsay 1:12 How big is veteran suicide? The numbers behind the "22 a day" debate 2:47 "Suicide is a human issue," not just a medical one 4:06 Why veterans are at higher risk: losing structure and purpose in transition 5:56 The gaps in how veterans get help 8:18 Beyond therapy: non-clinical help and the four protective factors 10:32 Risk factors vs. warning signs 12:04 Screening before a crisis happens 13:33 No magic list: how WWP's triage program works 15:48 Who gets screened, and the one-in-four finding 17:06 "We all lied on every health survey": screening when people don't tell the truth 20:08 Does it matter whether a human or a form asks? 21:52 System gaps vs. veterans not asking for help 23:48 Where is the biggest room for improvement? Connection 26:05 Where to start: resources for veterans and families 27:35 Families, and the 135 people affected by a single suicide Learn more about Wounded Warrior Project: woundedwarriorproject.org

  7. Oct 2

    Is Iran's War Spreading? Three Incidents, One Dangerous Pattern

    Masked men with vans full of fuel outside the British base that launched B-52s against Iran. A FlyDubai co-pilot stabbing his captain on a flight to Tel Aviv. A drone knocking out power to the Prophet's Mosque in Medina. Three incidents in one week, as Iran's 45-day deadline on the U.S. blockade expires and a third American carrier heads for the region. Is Iran launching a terror campaign? I don't think so. If Iran is behind these incidents, it looks less like an offensive and more like a regime testing three different escalation paths, all before U.S. combat power peaks in late November. In this solo brief, I walk through each incident the way I'd brief a commander: what we know, what we don't, the competing explanations, and my confidence level. Then I cover where this fits on Iran's escalation ladder and the indicators to watch over the next six weeks. Chapters: 00:00 Is Iran escalating through terror? 02:47 Bottom line up front 03:41 Incident 1: RAF Fairford 08:44 Incident 2: The FlyDubai cockpit attack 12:49 Why this doesn't fit the pilot-suicide pattern 18:31 Incident 3: The Medina grid strike 21:30 Why now? The November window 23:54 What to watch next Mentioned in this episode: Gray zone operations with F. David Diaz: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-RUmBaqkTQ&t=33s Robert Pape on the Escalation Trap: https://www.youtube.com/@AttheWatersEdge-r5e/playlists Watch the full video version, with maps and the flight data, on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlp8SIKfNIY Members of The Briefing Room on YouTube get a companion video on state use of suicide terrorism: who becomes a suicide attacker, why states have used them, and why most stopped. https://www.youtube.com/@AttheWatersEdge-r5e/membership Substack: https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg

  8. Sep 29

    Trump needs a "LAST CHAPTER" in Iran | Trita Parsi

    Trita Parsi argues Trump is looking for a "last chapter" in Iran, an ending that makes the whole war look worth it, and that diplomacy won't give him one. Iran's president flew to New York in the middle of a war to put a deal on the table, and Trump rejected it within days. Trita Parsi, co-founder and executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, joins At the Water's Edge to explain what Iran was really offering and why both sides may be heading toward a third round of war. We discuss why Iran's UNGA proposal mirrors the collapsed MOU, and why sanctions can hurt Iran without changing its policy. Parsi puts the odds of major U.S. escalation after the midterms at 70–80%, and explains why Iran may try to strike first. We also get into what a Democratic Congress could mean for the war and for Secretary Hegseth, and his argument that Europe is already a party to the conflict. On China, he covers Chinese commercial satellite imagery, China's role in holding down oil prices, and the soaring cost of escorting tankers through the Gulf. We close on why Tehran won't make irreversible nuclear concessions to a president it doesn't trust. Chapters: 00:00 Iran's president comes to New York 00:43 Iran's new offer and the MOU 03:16 Are sanctions actually working? 05:52 Has Washington learned anything? 08:10 The odds of U.S. escalation 09:41 What if Democrats win the midterms? 12:03 Why Iran wants a deal before the midterms 14:08 Real offer or message to the world? 16:25 Is Europe already in this war? 20:31 Will China or Russia get involved? 26:06 Could Iran overplay its hand? 28:44 Where to find Trita Parsi Guest: Trita Parsi, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft quincyinst.org tritaparsi.substack.com X: @tparsi Watch the full video on YouTube: At the Water's Edge Subscribe on Substack: substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg At the Water's Edge is a national security and geopolitics podcast hosted by Scott Kelly, a former Green Beret and one of the last ground force commanders in Afghanistan. Views expressed by guests are their own.

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Ratings & Reviews

4.7
out of 5
15 Ratings

About

The At the Water’s Edge Podcast explores national security and geopolitics from an insider’s perspective, looking at how national power, industrial policy, diplomacy, and military might shape our world and America’s place in it.

Information

  • Creator
    Scott
  • Years Active
    2023 - 2026
  • Episodes
    105
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © Scott
  • Show Website
    At the Water's Edge

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