Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

Felix Nikolas Prehn
  • 4.8 (15)
  • Investing
  • Updated Daily

Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. Felix — alongside his golden retriever Winston — interprets the economy and markets.

  1. 4h ago

    US Debt Buyback Programme: What Doubling Money Printing Means

    The US Treasury's decision to double its debt buyback programme and run it through to early November is the focus of this episode. Felix Nikolas Prehn, a former investment banker, traces how the government is creating new money to purchase its own long-dated bonds at the same time as Japan, historically the most loyal foreign holder of American debt, sold roughly 88 billion dollars of US bonds in a single month. He sets out how real world inflation since 2020 has, in his view, exceeded 100 per cent, and notes that the dollar has lost roughly 93 per cent of its value since 1971 on official figures alone. He examines the additional pressure of an estimated one trillion dollars in corporate borrowing for AI data centres, the physical movement of gold out of US vaults at record levels, and the concentration of S&P 500 gains in just ten names. He concludes that holding assets with real pricing power matters more than ever when the money supply is expanding this fast. In this episode: 00:00 Treasury doubles its debt buyback programme through to November 01:00 Physical gold leaving US vaults at record export levels 01:33 Japan sells 88 billion dollars of American debt in one month 04:05 Real inflation since 2020 estimated at well over 100 per cent 05:36 How the buyback mechanism works and who pays for it 06:36 Fed rate expectations diverge from government loosening 13:46 AI buildout adds roughly one trillion dollars in new corporate debt 17:19 Pattern matches the 1971 closing of the gold window Sources mentioned: US Treasury refunding statement, https://home.treasury.gov Japanese investor holdings of US debt (Ministry of Finance Japan), https://www.mof.go.jp/english/ US Bureau of Labour Statistics (dollar purchasing power), https://www.bls.gov Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast. Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com Research: https://prehninstitute.com Author site: https://felixprehn.com Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

    US Debt Buyback Programme: What Doubling Money Printing Means

  2. 5h ago

    Felix Nikolas Prehn: What Happens If The World Stops Needing Dollars For Oil

    A missile strike in Saudi Arabia kicks off a chain reaction that can end in higher inflation and a weaker dollar, even if you never follow foreign policy. We connect the 1974 petrodollar deal, the Saudi riyal peg, central bank gold buying, and what to check in your own holdings before the market reprices risk.  • the missile strike as a currency and portfolio story  • why oil spikes hit gas, groceries, heating, then investments  • the 1974 oil for dollars arrangement and why it supports the US dollar  • how the Saudi riyal peg forces Saudi rates to shadow the Fed  • what it means when Saudi trims US Treasuries  • the physical risk in shipping routes and refinery targets  • the financial side door of non dollar settlement systems like mBridge  • why central bank gold buying matters even when gold prices fall  • a simple at home checklist to map holdings and stress test for inflation  Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

  3. 10h ago

    Felix Nikolas Prehn: The Credit Reset

    We break down why America’s jump in borrowing costs signals a credit reset that can ripple through mortgages, pensions, and stock valuations long before mainstream headlines change. We connect cracked corporate bond charts in AI-linked giants to broad market weakness, then map out why silver and long-term bonds could become opportunity zones if the Fed is forced to respond.  • defining the credit reset in plain English and why yields reprice everything  • showing how higher Treasury yields collide with $40T in government debt  • walking through the three policy doors and why inflationary money printing is tempting  • reading bond market stress in Oracle, SpaceX, Meta-linked financing, and Paramount  • explaining concentration risk as AI becomes a huge share of index performance  • unpacking the $1.6B silver outflow and how trend funds plus leverage create forced selling  • outlining why metals can benefit when the Fed expands liquidity, with clear risks if it does not  • making the contrarian case for long-term bonds and how duration cuts both ways  • emphasizing process over predictions, plus position sizing and downside control  Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

  4. 1d ago

    Fed Losing Control: How AI Borrowing Reshapes Bonds And Gold

    The Federal Reserve is losing its grip on long term interest rates, according to senior Goldman Sachs traders who describe the central bank as more passenger than driver. Felix Nikolas Prehn walks through the mechanism: technology companies building AI infrastructure are on track to issue more debt than the US government next year, with borrowing approaching 1.3 trillion dollars. That wave is absorbing global savings, pushing bond yields higher and creating inflation before any productivity gains arrive. Meanwhile, central banks have doubled annual gold purchases to over 1,000 tonnes, absorbing roughly a third of new mine supply and thinning the market available to other buyers. Goldman's metals desk calls the recent gold pullback an elongated pause rather than a top, viewing 4,000 dollars an ounce as a floor. Silver offers larger potential moves in both directions owing to its far thinner investment market. The episode concludes that inaction carries its own considerable risk. In this episode: 00:00 Goldman traders say the Fed is now a passenger 01:33 Gold desk calls the dip an elongated pause 04:38 AI borrowing set to dwarf US government debt 06:10 The global savings glut era is declared over 08:41 AI spending is inflationary before productivity arrives 09:42 Government bond buybacks called a firecracker in a hurricane 16:48 Central banks doubled gold purchases to over 1000 tonnes 20:24 Silver offers bigger upside but violent drops Sources mentioned: Goldman Sachs cross-asset trading desk, https://www.goldmansachs.com Tony Kim, Goldman Sachs global metals trading Mark Wilson, Goldman Sachs equity franchise sales Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast. Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com Research: https://prehninstitute.com Author site: https://felixprehn.com Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

    Fed Losing Control: How AI Borrowing Reshapes Bonds And Gold

  5. 1d ago

    Gold And The Financial Reset: Why Central Banks Are Buying

    Gold pulled back roughly 20 per cent from its highs, yet central banks bought a record amount in a single quarter, spending some 40 billion dollars on the metal. Felix Nikolas Prehn connects this buying spree to a broader pattern: Bank of America data showing productivity and consumer confidence falling together for the first time since 2008, despite 1.5 trillion dollars already spent on AI. He examines the concentration risk inside the S and P 500, where 70 per cent of this year's gains came from just ten AI related stocks. He outlines the BRICS backed Unit settlement system, designed to bypass SWIFT and underpinned by 40 per cent gold, potentially launching later this year. Drawing parallels with the 1940s, when the Federal Reserve pinned rates to absorb government debt and inflation halved the purchasing power of savings in six years, he argues the same debt playbook is repeating now with US debt again above 120 per cent of GDP. In this episode: 00:00 Productivity and consumer confidence fall together for the first time since 2008 03:32 1.5 trillion dollars spent on AI with no measurable productivity gain 05:05 Altman, Amodei and Musk call to slow AI development 06:06 Ten stocks account for 70 per cent of S and P 500 returns this year 11:12 Central banks bought a record amount of gold in a single quarter 13:14 The Unit settlement system backed by 40 per cent gold explained 14:46 Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan gold price targets up to 6000 dollars 17:23 The 1940s debt playbook and how it quietly eroded savings Sources mentioned: Bank of America (Michael Hartnett research) Goldman Sachs, https://www.goldmansachs.com JP Morgan, https://www.jpmorgan.com ING, https://www.ing.com Financial Times, https://www.ft.com Kitco, https://www.kitco.com OpenAI (Sam Altman), https://www.openai.com Anthropic (Dario Amodei), https://www.anthropic.com Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast. Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com Research: https://prehninstitute.com Author site: https://felixprehn.com Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

    Gold And The Financial Reset: Why Central Banks Are Buying

  6. 2d ago

    Sulphuric Acid Ban And Dollar Crisis: What Comes Next

    Sulphuric acid may be an obscure commodity, but its sudden disappearance from global markets matters. Felix Nikolas Prehn explains how Russia's export ban, following China's earlier cut, removes the two largest suppliers of a chemical essential to fertiliser production. The remaining supply depends on Middle Eastern sulphur shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, the same chokepoint carrying a fifth of the world's oil. With crude above one hundred dollars a barrel and Chevron's chief executive stating that price buffers are exhausted, Prehn argues that energy and food inflation will arrive together. He then examines how Washington's sanctions programme is pushing foreign holders away from the dollar, why hedge funds sitting on 2.2 trillion dollars of leveraged treasury positions pose a systemic risk, and why central banks have bought 22 billion dollars of gold in three weeks. He concludes that the Federal Reserve is trapped between defending the bond market and defending the currency, and that the likely outcome is further money printing. In this episode: 00:00 Russia bans sulphuric acid exports, following China's earlier cut 01:02 Half the world's sulphur transits the Strait of Hormuz 02:02 Oil above one hundred dollars and rising 03:05 Fertiliser shortage threatens food prices 04:05 Chevron CEO says price buffers are exhausted 06:40 Dollar weaponised through sanctions on Iran 10:43 Hedge funds hold 2.2 trillion dollars in leveraged treasury trades 17:53 Fed trapped between bond market and dollar stability Sources mentioned: Chevron (CEO remarks on fuel crisis), https://www.chevron.com US Treasury (Operation Economic Outcast sanctions), https://home.treasury.gov Federal Reserve, https://www.federalreserve.gov Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast. Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com Research: https://prehninstitute.com Author site: https://felixprehn.com Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

    Sulphuric Acid Ban And Dollar Crisis: What Comes Next

  7. 2d ago

    Rate Hikes And Oil Shocks: Why Central Banks Are Buying Gold

    Gold and its role during supply side inflation form the core of this episode. Felix Nikolas Prehn, an economist and former investment banker, traces the parallels between the current environment and the 1970s oil shock, when gold rose from roughly 100 dollars to 850 dollars. He argues that raising interest rates does not address inflation driven by energy input costs and instead punishes borrowers while leaving the underlying price pressure intact. The episode examines how 8 trillion dollars of US government debt must be refinanced at higher rates, why the debt to GDP ratio now matches post war levels, and how that constrains the authorities from holding rates high long enough to suppress inflation. Central banks are responding by buying gold at the fastest pace since the late 1990s. Prehn concludes that inflation is likely to run hotter than official figures suggest, eroding the purchasing power of cash and concentrated equity portfolios alike. In this episode: 00:00 Fed raises rates into an oil shock 01:02 Farming input costs and diesel prices surge 03:34 Supply side versus demand side inflation explained 08:08 Energy costs multiply through the economy 09:39 Dollar purchasing power decline since 2000 12:43 Government debt refinancing at higher rates 14:17 Volcker era compared with current debt levels 19:55 Central bank gold buying at fastest pace in decades Sources mentioned: Financial Times, https://www.ft.com US Federal Reserve, https://www.federalreserve.gov John Boyd Jr. (American farmer) Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast. Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com Research: https://prehninstitute.com Author site: https://felixprehn.com Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

    Rate Hikes And Oil Shocks: Why Central Banks Are Buying Gold

  8. 3d ago

    US Oil Reserve At 44 Year Low: What Three Signals Reveal

    The US strategic petroleum reserve has fallen to its lowest level since 1982 after 26 consecutive weeks of withdrawals. Felix Nikolas Prehn, an economist and former investment banker, argues this drawdown is not about supply shortages but about suppressing the oil price to keep inflation figures manageable while the government prepares to print more money. He links the reserve depletion to two other developments: the US Treasury doubling its own debt buybacks to four billion dollars per operation, and the fact that three private companies, SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI, are now valued above 45 years of public tech listings combined. Household exposure to equities has reached a record, with five stocks making up 30 per cent of the S&P 500. Prehn notes that central banks are buying gold at the fastest pace since 1997 and that informed sellers are rotating out of technology names into cash generating businesses. He concludes that the dollar has lost 93 per cent of its purchasing power since 1971 and that the same pattern is being repeated. In this episode: 00:00 US strategic petroleum reserve at a 44 year low 01:02 Three signals appearing at the same time 02:33 Debt trap and why inflation is the only political exit 04:37 Venezuelan oil cannot meet reserve specifications 05:38 Manufactured calm before an inflation spike 08:41 Treasury doubles buybacks of its own debt 11:46 Three private firms worth more than 45 years of IPOs 15:19 Informed money rotates into boring toll booth businesses Sources mentioned: US Strategic Petroleum Reserve data, https://www.energy.gov US Department of the Treasury, https://home.treasury.gov Berkshire Hathaway, https://www.berkshirehathaway.com SpaceX, https://www.spacex.com Anthropic, https://www.anthropic.com OpenAI, https://www.openai.com Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast. Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com Research: https://prehninstitute.com Author site: https://felixprehn.com Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

    US Oil Reserve At 44 Year Low: What Three Signals Reveal
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Ratings & Reviews

4.8
out of 5
15 Ratings

About

Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. Felix — alongside his golden retriever Winston — interprets the economy and markets.

Information

  • Creator
    Felix Nikolas Prehn
  • Years Active
    2023 - 2026
  • Episodes
    609
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2026 Goat Academy Ltd
  • Show Website
    Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

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