Nascent 🪺 Podcast

Mike Vladimer

Nascent is a strategy for startups with no customers -- a methodology for founders to decide within days (not years!) whether their idea is an opportunity worth pursuing. nascentidea.com

  1. 029: No, don't use legendary founders' recipe for success. You can't mimic their intuition.

    5d ago

    029: No, don't use legendary founders' recipe for success. You can't mimic their intuition.

    Advice from legendary entrepreneurs doesn't work for the rest of us because the legends have an innate sense for good startup ideas that they can't explain. We can't mimic their intuition but we can copy it with a measurement system. In this episode: (00:00) What legendary founders see (03:19) What founders need, but not how to achieve it (06:09) The signal is People in Pain — and it's invisible (09:44) The People-to-Prospect Funnel makes the invisible visible (12:01) Yardstick of Pain to ERNY Value: from signal to number Are you new to the Nascent podcast? Start with Episode 019 Let's connect: Newsletter: https://nascentstartups.com Miro board with visuals and frameworks: https://miro.com/app/board/uXjVGhU2Xoo=/ Work with Mike: https://nascentidea.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mikevladimer YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@nascentidea Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5BtFtYF6nVUkLu7d7VVnSY Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nascent-startups-podcast/id1728760830 Twitter: https://x.com/NascentIdea Reach Mike at Podcast@NascentIdea.com Links and sources: Nascent Ep028: Yes, the easiest way to analyze discovery interviews is with the Yardstick of Pain. Nascent Ep027: No, don't interpret discovery interviews by feel. Nascent Ep022: Yes, search for People in Pain. But they're invisible. Paul Graham lecture at Stanford Peter Thiel, Zero to One Nascent frameworks referenced: People in Pain™ — The first signal a startup might have a customer. Every customer starts as a Person in Pain. People-to-Prospect Funnel™ — Five-layer funnel: Blockers → Distractions → People in Pain → Prospects → Customers. Founders with no customers face a sea of blockers and have to identify the few People in Pain hidden inside it. Yardstick of Pain™ — A three-bucket emotional scale (hurting, fine, joyous) that founders apply to each discovery interviewee. Only people who are hurting become customers. Introduced in Episode 027. ERNY™ (Estimated Revenue Next Year) — Quantified $-value of a pivot built from the ground up with no customers today, calculated only using discovery interviews. See Episode 019 for the roadmap.

    15 min
  2. 028: Yes, the easiest way to analyze discovery interviews is with the Yardstick of Pain.

    Jun 1

    028: Yes, the easiest way to analyze discovery interviews is with the Yardstick of Pain.

    When founders run discovery interviews, they don't know what they're searching for, so they don't know if they found it. Here's the most important quality to extract from an interview: Is there any evidence that the interviewee might care about your startup idea? To determine this, founders can apply Nascent's Yardstick of Pain™ as the first step to identifying people who might become customers. Previously in Episode 27, Mike introduced the Yardstick of Pain™ -- a three-part scale (hurting, fine, joyous). Here in Episode 28, Mike applies it in a case study where a founder wanted to pursue a startup idea ONLY if it might get CUSTOMERS. In this episode, you'll listen to real audio clips of real interviews and see how we categorized interviewees' Pain. Episode 028: Yes, the easiest way to analyze discovery interviews is with the Yardstick of Pain. See it applied in a case study. In this episode: (00:00) Most founders don't know what they're looking for (03:52) Meet Flora the founder (06:04) Founders' biases can cause misinterpretation (11:59) Words and tone reveal emotions (13:21) The Yardstick of Pain explains who might become a customer and why Are you new to the Nascent podcast? Start with Episode 019: https://www.nascentstartups.com/p/019-the-next-100-episodes-on-nascent Let's connect: Newsletter: https://nascentstartups.com Miro board with visuals and frameworks: https://miro.com/app/board/uXjVGhU2Xoo=/ Work with Mike: https://nascentidea.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mikevladimer YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@nascentidea Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5BtFtYF6nVUkLu7d7VVnSY Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nascent-startups-podcast/id1728760830 Twitter: https://x.com/NascentIdea Reach Mike at Podcast@NascentIdea.com Links and sources: Nascent Ep027: No, don't interpret discovery interviews by feel. Nascent Ep026: No, don't trust self-reported data from discovery interviews. Nascent Ep022: Yes, search for People in Pain. But they're invisible. Nascent frameworks referenced: Yardstick of Pain™ — A three-bucket emotional scale (hurting, fine, joyous) that founders apply to each discovery interviewee. Introduced in Episode 027, applied here. People in Pain™ — The first signal a startup might have a customer. Every customer starts as a Person in Pain. Defined in Episode 022. ERNY™ (Estimated Revenue Next Year) — Quantified $-value of a pivot built from the ground up with no customers today, calculated only using discovery interviews. Previewed at end of episode; see Episode 019 for the roadmap.

    16 min
  3. 027: No, don't interpret discovery interviews by feel.

    May 26

    027: No, don't interpret discovery interviews by feel.

    Founders WASTE a year on bad startup ideas because they struggle to answer the question "How can I make sense of what interviewees tell me?". Today, founders typically evaluate responses using the criterion "I know a validated assumption when I see it" -- a recipe for fooling yourself. Instead, founders can use Nascent's structured approach to categorizing interviewees' Pain, which is the first step to assessing the viability of a startup idea. Previously in Episode 26, Mike detailed Nascent's approach to capturing data. Here in Episode 27, Mike introduces Nascent's approach to analyzing data, starting with the Yardstick of Pain™, a three-part scale (hurting, fine, joyous). Founders categorize each interviewee and then iterate in small batches of ~5 interviews. This is Episode 027: No, don't interpret discovery interviews by feel. Instead, use the Yardstick of Pain. In this episode: (00:00) Don't fool yourself (03:33) Test systems must have consistency and repeatability (05:02) Nascent's four-part structure: Gather, Capture, Categorize, Iterate (05:35) The Yardstick of Pain: hurting, fine, joyous (07:13) FAQs about the Yardstick of Pain (10:15) Examples: Uber and a precision agriculture startup Are you new to the Nascent podcast? Start with Episode 019 Let's connect: Newsletter: https://nascentstartups.com Miro board with visuals and frameworks: https://miro.com/app/board/uXjVGhU2Xoo=/ Work with Mike: https://nascentidea.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mikevladimer YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@nascentidea Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5BtFtYF6nVUkLu7d7VVnSY Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nascent-startups-podcast/id1728760830 Twitter: https://x.com/NascentIdea Reach Mike at Podcast@NascentIdea.com Links and sources: Nascent Ep026: No, don't trust self-reported data from discovery interviews. Nascent Ep023: No, don't mimic successful founders. Instead, meet the guy solving startups' biggest challenge. Nascent Ep022: Yes, search for People in Pain. But they're invisible. Wong-Baker FACES Pain Rating Scale: https://wongbakerfaces.org Richard Feynman, "Cargo Cult Science": https://calteches.library.caltech.edu/51/2/CargoCult.htm NSF I-Corps: https://new.nsf.gov/funding/initiatives/i-corps Nascent frameworks referenced: Yardstick of Pain™ — A three-bucket emotional scale (hurting, fine, joyous) that founders apply to each discovery interviewee. Introduced this episode. People in Pain™ — The first signal a startup might have a customer. Every customer starts as a Person in Pain.

    15 min
  4. 026: No, don't trust self-reported data from discovery interviews.

    May 21

    026: No, don't trust self-reported data from discovery interviews.

    A key reason that founders WASTE a year on bad startup ideas is that they accept low-quality data that they'd NEVER accept elsewhere. Specifically, founders "capture" data from discovery interviews using their memory and their notes -- self-reported data that's a recipe for getting fooled. Instead, they need recordings to actually capture what interviewees say. This is the first episode in a series on how Nascent approaches data in discovery interviews. Mike walks through why memory and notes deceive founders, why engineers would never accept self-reported data anywhere else, and how Nascent's four-part data structure (Gather, Capture, Categorize, Iterate) gives founders a way to be decisive in days. Some founders are worried about recording so Mike addresses this fear and shares best practices. In this episode: (00:00) Don't fool yourself (03:12) Three types of data to analyze startup ideas (06:22) Founders get fooled by low-quality data (08:01) People in Pain are the fundamental force startups operate on (10:49) Nascent's four-part structure for data: Gather, Capture, Categorize, Iterate (12:57) Best practices to overcome the challenges of recording Are you new to the Nascent podcast? Start with Episode 019: https://www.nascentstartups.com/p/019-the-next-100-episodes-on-nascent Let's connect: Newsletter: https://nascentstartups.com Miro board with visuals and frameworks: https://miro.com/app/board/uXjVGhU2Xoo=/ Work with Mike: https://nascentidea.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mikevladimer YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@nascentidea Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5BtFtYF6nVUkLu7d7VVnSY Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nascent-startups-podcast/id1728760830 Twitter: https://x.com/NascentIdea Reach Mike at Podcast@NascentIdea.com Links and sources: Nascent Ep022: Yes, search for People in Pain. But they're invisible. https://www.nascentstartups.com/p/022-yes-search-for-people-in-pain Nascent Ep025: No, searching for People in Pain is not marketing. https://www.nascentstartups.com/p/025-no-searching-for-people-in-pain Richard Feynman, "Cargo Cult Science" https://calteches.library.caltech.edu/51/2/CargoCult.htm Nascent frameworks referenced: People in Pain™ — The first signal a startup might have a customer. Every customer starts as a Person in Pain. People-to-Prospect Funnel™ — A 5-layer funnel showing the path of any person to becoming a customer (introduced in Ep022).

    19 min
  5. 025: No, searching for People in Pain is not marketing. Marketers have knowledge that founders don't

    May 11

    025: No, searching for People in Pain is not marketing. Marketers have knowledge that founders don't

    This is a follow-up episode in response to a listener question regarding Episode 022. The listener asked: Isn't searching for People in Pain just marketing? No. Marketing deploys the knowledge a business already has. Searching for People in Pain is the project of figuring out whether it's even worth it to try to get that knowledge in the first place. This episode unpacks the most-abused word in startups ("customers") and contrasts how marketing works in an established, conventional business with customers versus an attempt at marketing for a customer-breakthrough tech startup with no customers. In brief, marketers run a knowledge-flywheel powered by existing customers' data. By contrast, startups with no customers are a data disaster. In this episode: (00:00) A data disaster (02:49) The most important and misunderstood word in entrepreneurship: "customer" (03:53) Recap of Ep 022 — the People-to-Prospect Funnel (05:09) In conventional businesses founders can LEARN about existing problems and solutions (06:56) Customer-breakthrough startups require founders to CREATE knowledge about problems and solutions (07:28) Audience question in detail (08:26) Effective marketing requires knowledge of messaging + economics (10:27) The invisible chain of events behind marketing (12:56) The cold-start problem that blocks tech startups Are you new to the Nascent podcast? Start with Episode 019: https://www.nascentstartups.com/p/019-the-next-100-episodes-on-nascent Let's connect: Newsletter: https://nascentstartups.com Miro board with visuals and frameworks: https://miro.com/app/board/uXjVGhU2Xoo=/ Work with Mike: https://nascentidea.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mikevladimer YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@nascentidea Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5BtFtYF6nVUkLu7d7VVnSY Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nascent-startups-podcast/id1728760830 Twitter: https://x.com/NascentIdea Reach Mike at Podcast@NascentIdea.com Links and sources: Nascent Ep022: Yes, search for People in Pain. But they're invisible. https://www.nascentstartups.com/p/022-yes-search-for-people-in-pain "The Lean Startup" by Eric Ries https://theleanstartup.com/ John Wanamaker quote on advertising https://www.azquotes.com/author/15273-John_Wanamaker Typical advertising conversion rates and costs: - https://www.ruleranalytics.com/blog/insight/conversion-rate-by-industry/ - https://firstpagesage.com/reports/digital-marketing-conversion-rate/ - https://totalproductmarketing.com/marketing-insights/conversion-rate-display-ads-all-industries/ - https://www.cometly.com/post/typical-conversion-rate-guide Nascent frameworks referenced: People in Pain™ — The first signal a startup might have a customer. Every customer starts as a Person in Pain, but they're invisible. People-to-Prospect Funnel™ — A 5-layer funnel showing the path of any person to becoming a customer.

    16 min
  6. 024: No, don't jump and "assemble a plane on the way down". Instead, use the Chain of Success

    May 6

    024: No, don't jump and "assemble a plane on the way down". Instead, use the Chain of Success

    Reid Hoffman was WRONG when he said "starting a company is like jumping off a cliff and assembling a plane on the way down -- your willingness to jump is your most valuable asset as an entrepreneur." "Willingness to jump" is not even his most valuable asset! His most valuable asset is his ability to know whether a startup idea has a chance of success. Only then is willingness to jump valuable, not disastrous. This episode introduces the Chain of Success: a framework to prioritize our work when seeking an early signal about whether a startup idea is worth pursuing. In this episode: (00:00) Don't build a plane while flying — Reid Hoffman's quote (03:08) Founders focus on winners (1% exits are $10M+) (04:42) Distribution of startup outcomes (hat tip 🎩 Jared Heyman, Rebel Fund) (09:46) 1 year wasted on a $0 exit = unacceptable (10:40) Nascent's 10x improvement goal (11:43) The Chain of Success framework (13:21) Two strategic points: fragility and signal (14:38) Only prioritize the riskiest link: paying customers (17:27) Chain of Success applied to doctors (gunshot vs paper cut) (22:24) Chain of Success applied to airplanes (wings vs seatbelts) (24:04) Go record one conversation (25:00) Mailbag: feedback from Michael Are you new to the Nascent podcast? Start with Episode 019: https://www.nascentstartups.com/p/019-the-next-100-episodes-on-nascent Let's connect: Newsletter: https://nascentstartups.com Miro board with visuals and frameworks: https://miro.com/app/board/uXjVGhU2Xoo=/ Work with Mike: https://nascentidea.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mikevladimer YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@nascentidea Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5BtFtYF6nVUkLu7d7VVnSY Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nascent-startups-podcast/id1728760830 Twitter: https://x.com/NascentIdea Reach Mike at Podcast@NascentIdea.com Links and sources: Nascent Ep020: The biggest problem in startups. https://www.nascentstartups.com/p/020-the-biggest-problem-in-startups Nascent Ep021: No, getting customers is the wrong goal. https://www.nascentstartups.com/p/021-no-getting-customers-is-the-wrong Nascent Ep022: Yes, search for People in Pain. But they're invisible. https://www.nascentstartups.com/p/022-yes-search-for-people-in-pain Nascent Ep023: No, don't mimic successful founders. https://www.nascentstartups.com/p/023-no-dont-mimic-successful-founders Reid Hoffman quote — "starting a company is like jumping off a cliff" https://x.com/reidhoffman/status/1481071139221049345 Jared Heyman references: https://jaredheyman.medium.com/on-the-power-law-of-y-combinator-startups-19cfb39863d6 and https://jaredheyman.medium.com/on-yc-startup-exits-2025-update-c6017e8e526e CB Insights — Top reasons startups fail https://www.cbinsights.com/research/report/startup-failure-reasons-top/ Tom Eisenmann, Why Startups Fail https://www.amazon.com/Why-Startups-Fail-Roadmap-Entrepreneurial/dp/0593137027 Nascent frameworks referenced: Chain of Success™ — A visualization tool showing the components (customers, product, etc.) a business needs to succeed. If any link breaks then the Chain breaks and the business fails. The Chain of Success reveals 3 strategic takeaways: Fragility, Signal and Focus. ERNY™ — Estimated Revenue Next Year from the ground up with no customers today, calculated by analyzing recorded discovery interviews. People in Pain™ — The first signal a startup might have a customer. Every customer starts as a Person in Pain.

    27 min
  7. 023: No, don't mimic successful founders. Instead, meet the guy solving startups' biggest challenge

    Apr 29

    023: No, don't mimic successful founders. Instead, meet the guy solving startups' biggest challenge

    The biggest challenge in entrepreneurship is that founders of startups with no customers need a way to know if they're about to "make something people want". In this episode, Mike details three experiences that enable him to solve this challenge: (1) measurement systems -- Mike worked for years quantifying consumer products, (2) crossing boundaries -- Mike uses concepts outside conventional entrepreneurship to create Nascent's quantification frameworks and (3) table stakes -- Mike has decades of experience with startups and teaching. In this episode: (00:00) "Make something people want" is like saying airplanes just need to "get in the air" (01:10) For the rest of us, instinct is not enough (01:39) What Nascent is and why Mike created it (02:21) Welcome to the Nascent podcast (02:55) Nascent lets startups with no customers Estimate Revenue Next Year (03:34) Three reasons Mike is the right person to build Nascent (05:23) Twenty years in startups; ten in Silicon Valley (05:54) Create, collaborate, communicate — Mike's three working modes (07:21) Mike's superpower: explaining things (08:11) From engineer to regulator — measuring messy, unstructured products (10:51) From "Your idea sucks." to "Why does my idea suck?!" (13:23) Discovery interviews need an analysis framework (14:29) The danger of "you'll know a good startup idea when you see it" (16:22) Crossing boundaries — the beach, languages (17:26) From perceiving invisible electrons to invisible People in Pain (19:41) The Alexa employee anecdote — circuitous career paths and unexpected payoffs (21:12) CTA: send this episode to a founder who needs it (22:04) Mailbag: Claudia's outreach (22:33) Outro Links and sources: - Nascent Ep020: The biggest problem in startups remains unsolved. https://www.nascentstartups.com/p/020-the-biggest-problem-in-startups - Nascent Ep021: No, getting customers is the wrong goal. Instead search for People in Pain. https://www.nascentstartups.com/p/021-no-getting-customers-is-the-wrong - Nascent Ep022: Yes, search for People in Pain. But they're invisible. https://www.nascentstartups.com/p/022-yes-search-for-people-in-pain - Y Combinator — the "make something people want" motto https://www.ycombinator.com/ - Paul Graham's "internal compass" quote https://paulgraham.com/before.html - Steve Blank https://steveblank.com/ - Jerry Engel https://haas.berkeley.edu/faculty/engel-jerome/ - Innovation Corps (I-Corps) at the National Science Foundation (NSF) https://www.nsf.gov/funding/initiatives/i-corps - The Mom Test by Rob Fitzpatrick https://www.momtestbook.com/ - Helen Rennie — cooking instructor https://www.youtube.com/user/helenrennie - Richard Feynman — "you are the easiest person to fool" https://calteches.library.caltech.edu/51/2/CargoCult.htm Nascent frameworks referenced: - ERNY™ — Estimated Revenue Next Year from the ground up with no customers today, calculated by analyzing recorded discovery interviews. - People in Pain™ — The first signal a startup might have a customer. Every customer starts as a Person in Pain. Let's connect: - Newsletter: https://nascentstartups.com - Work with Mike: https://nascentidea.com - LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/mikevladimer - YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@Nascentidea - Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5BtFtYF6nVUkLu7d7VVnSY - Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nascent-podcast/id1728760830 - Twitter: https://x.com/NascentIdea - Visuals and frameworks (Miro): https://miro.com/app/board/uXjVGhU2Xoo=/ - Reach Mike at Podcast@NascentIdea.com

    23 min
  8. 022: Yes, search for People in Pain. But they're invisible.

    Apr 22

    022: Yes, search for People in Pain. But they're invisible.

    Episode 022: Yes, search for People in Pain. But, they're invisible. In this episode, Mike introduces the distinction between conventional businesses (where knowledge exists) and breakthrough startups (where founders must create new knowledge). He details the challenge for founders of customer-breakthrough startups: to create knowledge, they must identify People in Pain who are invisible. To distinguish invisible People in Pain from visible customers, Mike presents the People-to-Prospect Funnel, a 5-layer framework for understanding what it takes for a startup to get a customer. In this episode: (00:00) Let's go get customers, right? Wrong! (00:53) Intro: trying to get customers is too tedious (02:02) Recap: why searching for People in Pain is easier than chasing customers (04:43) All businesses use knowledge to provide pain relief to People in Pain (05:17) Conventional businesses vs. breakthrough startups (05:57) Example of a conventional business: the pizza shop (08:33) Examples of technology-breakthrough: Ozempic, teleportation (10:17) Examples of customer-breakthrough startups: Airbnb, Uber (11:05) How a founder, Paul, used Nascent to decide in days (11:35) Founders make two investments in knowledge creation (12:53) Why People in Pain are invisible (14:11) Antennas on your head -- developing a new sense of Pain (15:21) The People-to-Prospect Funnel: 5 layers from blockers to customers (17:56) Example of the People-to-Prospect Funnel: a food cart pod (22:26) CTA: who are the People in Pain you're searching for? Nascent frameworks referenced: - People in Pain™ -- the first signal a startup might have a customer; every customer starts as a Person in Pain - People-to-Prospect Funnel™ -- 5-layer funnel: blockers, insidious distractions, People in Pain, prospects, customers - Knowledge-creation project -- The Nascent definition of a startup where founders must create new knowledge - Categorizing businesses by knowledge -- new solution to an obvious problem vs. new solution to a hidden problem - Doubtful vs. possible -- the binary assessment of whether success for a startup idea is doubtful or possible. Let's connect: - Newsletter: https://nascentstartups.com - Visuals and frameworks (Miro): https://miro.com/app/board/uXjVGhU2Xoo=/ - Work with Mike: https://nascentidea.com - LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/mikevladimer - YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@Nascentidea - Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5BtFtYF6nVUkLu7d7VVnSY - Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nascent-podcast/id1728760830 - Twitter: https://x.com/NascentIdea - Email: Podcast@NascentIdea.com Links and sources: - 021: No, getting customers is the wrong goal. Instead search for People in Pain. https://open.spotify.com/episode/7caiudvijZhCrKDjlHKzsw?si=D80_hfneTSONn8cndHAV0w - Yums of PDX https://www.yumsofpdx.com/ Your startup is a knowledge creation project. The knowledge you need doesn't exist yet -- you have to create it. And the most important piece of that knowledge comes from identifying invisible People in Pain who might someday become your customers.

    23 min
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Ratings & Reviews

5
out of 5
4 Ratings

About

Nascent is a strategy for startups with no customers -- a methodology for founders to decide within days (not years!) whether their idea is an opportunity worth pursuing. nascentidea.com

Information

  • Creator
    Mike Vladimer
  • Years Active
    2024 - 2026
  • Episodes
    26
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Mike Vladimer
  • Show Website
    Nascent 🪺 Podcast