Fighting with Numbers: UFC Betting Through An Analytical Lens

Rob Moreno
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Fighting With Numbers is the UFC betting podcast where analytics meet fight talk. Hosted by Rob Moreno of VSiN's First Strike, each episode breaks down upcoming cards through model grades, matchup data, and betting angles that actually matter. No hype, no clickbait — just data-driven analysis that helps you read the lines, not the headlines. Whether you’re chasing sharp value, tracking fighter trends, or just love hearing the story behind the stats, this show gives you the edge every fight week. New episodes drop every week — where numbers tell the story inside the Octagon.

  1. 22H AGO

    UFC 325 Betting Predictions: Volkanovski vs Lopes 2 | Fighting with Numbers

    In this episode of Fighting with Numbers, Rob Moreno breaks down UFC 325, featuring a smaller card with only six fights modeled. He discusses the importance of patience and discipline in betting, analyzes key matchups including Rafael Faziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy, Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint-Denis, and the main event between Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes. The episode emphasizes the value of the betting model and the need for strategic decision-making in a selective betting environment. Follow Bobby on all social media platforms:@TheRobbeo And make sure to subscribe here and on YouTube so you never miss an episode! Chapters 00:00 Introduction to UFC 325 and Overview of the Card 01:24 Analyzing Rafael Fiziev vs Mauricio Ruffy 04:51 Dan Hooker vs Benoit Saint-Denis: A Fight for Violence 09:11 Main Event Breakdown: Volkanovski vs Lopes Rematch

    15 min

  2. JAN 22

    UFC 324 Betting Preview: Gaethje vs Pimblett | Fighting with Numbers

    In this episode of Fighting with Numbers, Rob Moreno dives into UFC 324, analyzing key matchups including Alex Perez vs. Charles Johnson, Natalia Silva vs. Rose Namajunas, Sean O'Malley vs. Song Yadong, and the main event featuring Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett. Utilizing a predictive model, Rob discusses the odds, statistics, and insights that guide his betting strategies, emphasizing the importance of data-driven decision-making in sports betting. Follow me on social media!X: @TheRobbeo Instagram: @TheRobbeo TikTok: @TheRobbeo And make sure to check out the Substack for even more detailed notes and a full UFC model prediction card. FightNumbers.substack.com Chapters 00:00 Introduction to UFC 324 and the Podcast 03:10 Fight Breakdown: Alex Perez vs. Charles Johnson 05:52 Fight Breakdown: Natalia Silva vs. Rose Namajunis 08:36 Co-Main Event: Sean O'Malley vs. Song Yedong 12:22 Main Event: Justin Gaethje vs. Patty Pimlet 18:42 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

    20 min

  3. 12/11/2025

    UFC Vegas 112: Royvval vs Kape (One Last Event)

    It’s the final UFC event of the year, and we’re closing 2025 with a deep dive into UFC Vegas 112: Brandon Royval vs Manel Kape. After a 6-4 week, the model sits at 176-101-15 (63.54%), locking in a profitable season no matter what happens on Saturday.   In this episode, we break down a few key fights with full data-driven analysis, matchup insights, betting angles, and projected outcomes. Plus: a look back at the 2025 season, the evolution of the model, and what’s coming in 2026.   Follow for more: 🐦 Twitter: @TheRobbeo 📸 Instagram: @TheRobbeo 📱 TikTok: @TheRobbeo 📝 Substack: FightNumbers.substack.com 🎙️ Catch me on VSiN’s First Strike throughout the year.

    19 min

  4. 12/04/2025

    UFC 323 Betting Preview: Merab vs Yan 2, Pantoja vs Van

    The UFC closes out the PPV era with a monster card at UFC 323, live from T-Mobile Arena — and we’re breaking down all the numbers that matter. Two championship fights headline the final mega-event of 2025: Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van for the flyweight belt, and Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan 2 for the bantamweight championship. With only two events left in the year and a long six-week offseason ahead, this is a crucial week for bettors, pick’em players, and anyone chasing season-long edges.   This episode features full analytical breakdowns from El Modelo, as the system enters the week 170-97-13 (63.67%). We dig into a few fun fights to wager on — including striking profiles, xR% advantages, grappling efficiency, finishing upside, and all the hidden stats that shape fight outcomes.   Follow me everywhere: Twitter/X: @TheRobbeo Instagram: @TheRobbeo Substack newsletter: FightNumbers.substack.com Catch me on VSiN’s First Strike every Wednesday for more betting breakdowns. Available everywhere you get your podcasts and on YouTube.    One more card left after this — let’s finish the year strong.

    25 min

  5. 11/20/2025

    Tsarukyan vs Hooker: UFC Qatar Betting Preview

    UFC Qatar is here — and with only three events left in the year, it’s all about tightening the screws and finding the smartest possible spots. This week’s card is a morning start with a smaller batch of model predictions, but there are some sharp angles to attack, including live underdogs and stylistic matchups the numbers actually like.   In today’s episode, we break down three key fights — Hermansson vs Oralbai, Spivac vs Gaziev, and the main event between Arman Tsarukyan and Dan Hooker — with full statistical context, xR% comparisons, and model probabilities.   I’ll also talk briefly about my year-long pick’em contest grind, what the model saw last week, and how we’re approaching these final three events of the season.   Follow the show & stay connected: • Twitter/X: @TheRobbeo • Instagram & TikTok: @TheRobbeo • Substack: http://FightNumbers.substack.com • Catch me on VSiN’s First Strike throughout the week as well   If you enjoy the episode, don’t forget to rate, follow, and share — it really helps the podcast grow.   Let’s make the most of these early-morning edges. Enjoy UFC Qatar!

    21 min

  6. 11/13/2025

    UFC 322 Betting Preview: JDM vs Makhachev, Shevchenko vs Weili

    UFC 322 is one of the deepest cards of the entire year, with two massive title fights — Jack Della Maddalena vs Islam Makhachev for the welterweight belt, and Valentina Shevchenko vs Weili Zhang for the women’s flyweight championship.   This week, the model is coming off a 5–4 event and now sits at 159-92-12 on the year. With only five UFC events left on the calendar, we’re digging into the smartest angles on a card absolutely loaded with elite matchups.   In this episode of Fighting With Numbers, I break down five key fights using a blend of hard data, matchup nuances, and model projections. Including live underdog opportunities, dangerous favorite spots, and where the numbers diverge from the odds.

    24 min

  7. 10/29/2025

    UFC Vegas 110: Can Steve Garcia Keep the Streak Alive Against David Onama?

    The UFC returns to the Apex for UFC Vegas 110 — and Rob’s breaking down the numbers! After a few rough weeks for the model (now at 63.56%), it’s time to bounce back with a stat-driven look at this post-PPV card headlined by Steve Garcia vs David Onama.   Tune in for the usual mix of betting talk, model insights, and fight-week storylines, all in one data-powered episode. Follow Rob on Twitter/X, Instagram, and YouTube: @TheRobbeo, and check out the written breakdowns at FightNumbers.substack.com.   For more UFC coverage, catch Rob every week on VSiN’s “First Strike” alongside Dave Ross, breaking down odds, props, and best bets for fight night.   🎧 Listen. Learn. Bet smarter. VKFLGPrI0PVqjXUrjxdX

    15 min

  8. 10/22/2025

    Can Tom Aspinall Cement His Legacy? UFC 321 Betting & Stats Breakdown

    The UFC heads to Abu Dhabi for a massive double-title event at UFC 321: Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane, and Fighting With Numbers is breaking it all down!   Rob Moreno (@TheRobbeo) dives deep into the data and betting angles across five key matchups — from Umar Nurmagomedov’s bounce-back fight to the vacant strawweight title clash between Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba. Plus, full analysis on Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane as the heavyweight division looks to crown its true king.   📊 Model Record: 4-5 last week | 64.35% overall on the year   🎧 Subscribe & Follow: Twitter / Instagram: @TheRobbeo YouTube: http://youtube.com/@TheRobbeo Newsletter: FightNumbers.Substack.com Also catch Rob every week on the First Strike Podcast from VSiN with Dave Ross   If you enjoy the episode, hit like, subscribe, and drop a comment with your favorite bet of the week — let’s keep building this community of data-driven fight nerds!

    22 min
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Fighting With Numbers is the UFC betting podcast where analytics meet fight talk. Hosted by Rob Moreno of VSiN's First Strike, each episode breaks down upcoming cards through model grades, matchup data, and betting angles that actually matter. No hype, no clickbait — just data-driven analysis that helps you read the lines, not the headlines. Whether you’re chasing sharp value, tracking fighter trends, or just love hearing the story behind the stats, this show gives you the edge every fight week. New episodes drop every week — where numbers tell the story inside the Octagon.

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