Fighting with Numbers: UFC Betting Through An Analytical Lens

Rob Moreno
  • 4.8 (8)
  • Fantasy Sports
  • Updated Weekly

Fighting With Numbers is the UFC betting podcast where analytics meet fight talk. Hosted by Rob Moreno of VSiN's First Strike, each episode breaks down upcoming cards through model grades, matchup data, and betting angles that actually matter. No hype, no clickbait — just data-driven analysis that helps you read the lines, not the headlines. Whether you’re chasing sharp value, tracking fighter trends, or just love hearing the story behind the stats, this show gives you the edge every fight week. New episodes drop every week — where numbers tell the story inside the Octagon.

  1. 6d ago

    Ankalaev vs Guskov + Pack Rip Vol. 2 | UFC Abu Dhabi Betting Preview | FWN Ep. 50

    The UFC is in Abu Dhabi this week and Rob is back with another lean card, another early morning start, and another pack rip. Two fights make the cut for the model this week — an undefeated prospect with a suffocating grappling game looking to stay perfect, and a former light heavyweight champion returning in a last-minute main event against a hungry replacement opponent. Short card, safe plays, and whatever comes out of the pack. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com.  Chapters 00:00 Introduction to UFC Abu Dhabi and Episode Overview  00:56 Recap of Last Week's Model Performance and MMA Betting Reality  02:23 Current UFC Betting Climate and Card Preview  03:37 Introduction to Pack Rip Tradition and Social Media Presence  05:57 Fighter Profile: Nurullo Aliev vs Mike Davis  09:14 Main Event Breakdown: Magomed Ankalaev vs Bogdan Guskov  19:05 Betting Predictions and Line Movements for Main Event  21:17 Pack Rip Card Opening and Collectible Highlights  24:24 Closing Remarks and How to Follow for More Content Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

  2. Jul 14

    Dricus Du Plessis vs Kamaru Usman + Live Card Rip | UFC Oklahoma City Breakdown | FWN Ep. 49

    The UFC heads to Oklahoma City for a shorter card this week, and Rob starts by addressing the elephant in the room — Conor McGregor's knee gave out in the first round, BSD dropped a fight he didn't see coming, and somehow we move forward. On a data-thin slate, the model still finds two fights worth talking about: a co-main event where the Tier 1 favorite's price sends us straight to the prop market, and a main event where a former welterweight champion steps into a new division as a big underdog with a very clear blueprint for winning. Plus — something new this week. Rob rips open a UFC trading card pack live on air. No script. Just vibes and whatever comes out of the pack. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com. Chapters 00:00 Intro and UFC Oklahoma City overview 01:28 Recap of recent UFC fight results and lessons learned 02:24 Discussion on Conor McGregor's return and fan disappointment 05:08 Preview of UFC Oklahoma City main card and data limitations 06:10 Open UFC trading cards live on air 07:20 Analysis of Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan 13:05 Preview of UFC main event: Duplessis vs Uzman 19:34 Live UFC card rip and closing thoughts 23:02 Final betting thoughts and episode wrap-up Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

  3. Jul 7

    McGregor is Back | UFC 329 Model Breakdown | FWN Ep. 48

    The Mac is back. Five years removed from his last fight and six years since his last win, Conor McGregor steps back into the octagon at welterweight for a rematch against Max Holloway that nobody saw coming when they first met back in 2013. Rob breaks down the UFC 329 card through the model. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com.   Chapters 00:00 Welcome Back Mac 02:04 Analyzing Women's Flyweight Fight: Cortez vs. Wang 05:15 Robert Whitaker's Move to Light Heavyweight 09:40 Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Paddy Pimblett: A Lightweight Clash 13:46 The Return of Conor McGregor: Holloway Rematch 20:24 Final Thoughts and Betting Insights Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

  4. Jun 24

    Fiziev vs Torres | UFC Baku Model Predictions | FWN Ep. 47

    The UFC heads to Baku, Azerbaijan this week as Rafael Fiziev looks to make a statement in front of his home crowd against a red-hot Manuel Torres — a fighter who has barely seen a second round in his entire MMA career.  If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com.   Chapters 00:00 Introduction and Recent Performance Review 02:03 Upcoming UFC Event in Baku, Azerbaijan 03:13 Fight Breakdown: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson 07:43 Fight Breakdown: Rafael Faziv vs. Manuel Torres 14:04 Conclusion and Future Outlook Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

  5. Jun 17

    UFC Vegas 119: Kape vs Horiguchi 2 | FWN Ep. 46

    Back at the APEX after one of the wildest events in UFC history. Rob recaps the White House card and gets into UFC Vegas 119 — a shorter card headlined by a legitimate flyweight title eliminator between Manel Kape and Kyoji Horiguchi.  If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com.   Chapters 00:00 Here We Go 05:02 Analyzing Upcoming Fights at UFC Vegas 119 14:32 Main Event Breakdown: Manel Kape vs. Kyoji Horiguchi Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

  6. Jun 10

    UFC Freedom 250 | White House Bets | FWN Ep. 45

    The UFC takes it outside — literally — as the promotion sets up on the lawn of the White House for a card with two title fights and genuine history on the line. Rob breaks down fights through the model, including a heavyweight title fight where the model says one thing and the heart says another, and a lightweight main event where the undefeated El Matador looks to add another legend to his list. The outdoor environment, the crowd, the weather — this one comes with unknowns that no model can fully account for. That's what makes it must-watch television. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com.   00:00 Introduction and Event Recap  02:02 UFC Freedom 250 Overview  04:37 Weather and Environmental Factors  06:24 Diego Lopes vs. Steve Garcia Breakdown  11:16 Alex Pereira's Historic Title Shot  16:32 Main Event: Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje Analysis  23:35 Closing Thoughts and Final Predictions Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

    UFC Freedom 250 | White House Bets | FWN Ep. 45

  7. Jun 2

    UFC Vegas 118: Muhammad vs Bonfim | Betting Predictions | FWN Ep. 44

    UFC Vegas 118 lands at the APEX this week with a former welterweight champion looking to stop the bleeding against a rising contender riding serious momentum. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com. Chapters 00:00 Introduction to UFC Vegas 118 Preview 02:53 Analyzing the Undercard Fights 06:42 Co-Main Event Breakdown: Allen vs. Shahbazyan 09:32 Main Event Discussion: Muhammad vs. Bonfim 14:48 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

    UFC Vegas 118: Muhammad vs Bonfim | Betting Predictions | FWN Ep. 44

  8. May 26

    UFC Macau: Song vs Figueiredo | Betting Predictions | FWN Ep. 43

    The UFC is back from a week off and so is Fighting With Numbers. This week the promotion heads to Macau for an early morning card — 4AM Eastern for those of us stateside. Rob breaks down two fights through the model, including a light heavyweight matchup where the numbers are lopsided enough to hunt props over the moneyline, and a main event featuring a former two-time flyweight champion whose decline is written all over the data. Short pod, clear model sides, and a prop market worth paying attention to before fight night. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com. Chapters 00:00 Fighting with Numbers Returns 01:46 UFC Macau Preview: Co-Main Event Breakdown 05:41 Main Event Analysis: Song vs Figgy 09:28 Conclusion Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

    UFC Macau: Song vs Figueiredo | Betting Predictions | FWN Ep. 43
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About

Fighting With Numbers is the UFC betting podcast where analytics meet fight talk. Hosted by Rob Moreno of VSiN's First Strike, each episode breaks down upcoming cards through model grades, matchup data, and betting angles that actually matter. No hype, no clickbait — just data-driven analysis that helps you read the lines, not the headlines. Whether you’re chasing sharp value, tracking fighter trends, or just love hearing the story behind the stats, this show gives you the edge every fight week. New episodes drop every week — where numbers tell the story inside the Octagon.

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