Ajmal Sohail Counterterrorism & Counterintelligence

Ajmal Sohail

Jihadi-Terrorism and Insurgency, Militancy and Violent Extremism in Central-South Asia, Middle East and Africa. ajmals.substack.com

  1. Oct 5

    Non‑State Cyberterrorism: The Invisible Frontline of Modern Conflict

    Podcast Episode Summary In this Prime Time conversation with Anewz TV, Ajmal Sohail reframes cybersecurity as a national‑security battlefield dominated not by states, but by non‑state actors who exploit digital ecosystems with unprecedented speed and anonymity. He explains how extremist groups, who are responsible for severe harm, human rights violations, and destabilizing violence offline now leverage cyber tools to amplify fear, disrupt essential services, and manipulate public perception. Cyberterrorism, he argues, is no longer defined by technical sophistication but by access, intent, and the ability to outsource capabilities through global criminal networks. Sohail breaks down the three pillars of non‑state cyberterrorism: ideologically driven extremist organizations, criminal syndicates acting as cyber‑mercenaries, and lone‑actor radicals who operate below traditional intelligence thresholds. Together, they form a volatile ecosystem where ideology, crime, and technology intersect. He highlights how this terror‑crime nexus enables actors to rent ransomware kits, purchase access to breached systems, and deploy coordinated digital harassment campaigns, all without possessing advanced cyber skills themselves. The interview underscores a critical warning: non‑state cyberterrorism thrives in the gaps between jurisdictions, platforms, and outdated security frameworks. As Ajmal notes, these actors exploit soft targets, legacy infrastructure, and human vulnerabilities faster than governments can adapt. His message is clear, unless nations modernize their intelligence posture and treat cyberterrorism as a strategic threat rather than a technical nuisance, non‑state actors will continue shaping the next decade of global insecurity. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit ajmals.substack.com/subscribe

  2. Sep 12

    The 9/11 Legacy: Twenty‑Five Years Later, The War That Reshaped the World

    The attacks of September 11th were not just a moment of horror, they were a geopolitical rupture that forced the world to rebuild its entire security architecture from the ground up. Intelligence agencies that once operated in silos were pushed into unprecedented cooperation, and global alliances were reshaped around a single strategic imperative, namely preventing the next catastrophic attack. Musa Bin Ali Yet a quarter century later, the systems born in the aftermath of 9/11 are struggling to keep pace with a threat landscape that has evolved far beyond the imagination of 2001. Hence, terrorism did not vanish, it mutated, especially the hierarchical networks of al‑Qaeda gave way to decentralized cells, lone‑actor extremists, and hybrid groups blending ideology with criminality. Technology accelerated this shift, encrypted platforms, AI‑driven propaganda, and digital financing created a battlefield without borders. Europe, particularly Germany, now finds itself at the center of this new era, facing radicalization hubs, migration‑linked vulnerabilities, and intelligence blind spots that demand a modern, tech‑driven counterterrorism posture. The Taliban-Alqaida Partnership Twenty‑five years on, the greatest lesson of 9/11 is that security cannot remain static. The failures of strategy, inconsistent partnerships, and underinvestment in prevention continue to haunt global counterterrorism efforts. To confront today’s threats, predominantly from cyber sabotage to digitally‑enabled extremism, nations must embrace imagination, coordination, and innovation. This episode explores how far we’ve come, where we fell short, and what must change to prevent the next seismic shock to global security. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit ajmals.substack.com/subscribe

  3. Sep 10

    The Mecca Pact Under Fire: When Reality Cuts the Interview Short

    The interview you just gave, abruptly cut short the moment you began laying out the operational truth, is itself the story. This podcast episode captures what the broadcast didn’t allow to air: a clear, unfiltered assessment of how the Mecca Pact has already failed its first real test, and why the reactions from Türkiye and Pakistan were so weak, so hollow, and so politically evasive that the interviewer chose to end the segment rather than confront the implications. In this episode, you walk listeners through the essential points that never made it to screen. You explain how the Houthi attacks, barely a month after the pact’s signing should have triggered a unified response under the “attack on one is an attack on all” clause. Instead, Türkiye issued a vague condemnation calling for “restraint,” while Pakistan minimized the strikes as “recent incidents” and urged dialogue. Neither referenced the pact. Neither offered support. Neither treated the attack as collective defense. You also describe how your analysis, grounded in your two Eurasia Review op‑eds, first op‑ed and second op‑ed, directly contradicted the narrative the broadcaster expected. Once you highlighted the structural fragility of the pact, the absence of operational mechanisms, and the political hedging by both partners, the interview ended abruptly. Not because of time, but because the truth was too uncomfortable. This podcast episode restores what was cut: the full strategic picture, the uncomfortable realities, and the expert analysis that explains why Saudi Arabia now stands alone despite the promises of the Mecca Pact. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit ajmals.substack.com/subscribe

  4. Sep 8

    THE FAULT LINES OF POWER: Germany’s Election Night Through a Security Lens

    The interview unfolds at a moment when Germany stands at a crossroads, not only politically, but strategically. Elections in Europe’s anchor state are never just domestic events; they are stress tests for the continent’s resilience. As the results emerge, so do the vulnerabilities: cyber intrusions probing the edges of democratic infrastructure, disinformation networks attempting to distort public perception, and extremist ecosystems watching closely for any sign of fragmentation. In this conversation, the focus sharpens on the hidden battlefield, the hybrid threats that exploit uncertainty long before ballots are counted. Germany’s political gravity has consequences far beyond Berlin, when institutions face pressure, hostile actors from foreign intelligence services to jihadist networks responsible for severe harm and human rights violations, while attempting to project relevance. They weaponize instability, amplify polarizing narratives, and seek operational cover in moments, when governments are distracted. The interview captures this tension, namely how a democratic process becomes a strategic opportunity for those, who thrive in chaos, and how Europe’s collective security posture must adapt to counter these evolving risks. For listeners, this episode becomes more than an analysis of election results. It is a reminder that modern security is no longer defined by borders or armies alone. It is shaped by information, perception, and the ability of societies to withstand pressure without fracturing. Germany’s election night is a case study in that struggle a moment, where democracy, resilience, and geopolitical reality collide. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit ajmals.substack.com/subscribe

  5. Sep 1

    From Shockwaves to Shadows: ISIS‑K’s Tactical Evolution in Khorasan

    Ajmal Sohail breaks down the world’s most adaptive jihadist threat, and why the next battlefield is already here. The DW interview begins with a stark reality: for years, ISIS‑K, a violent extremist organization responsible for mass atrocities and human rights violations relied on high‑signature attacks to announce its presence in Afghanistan. These operations were designed for maximum visibility: mass‑casualty suicide bombings, complex assaults on urban centers, and headline‑dominating strikes against civilian and government targets. The goal was simple, shock, fear, and global attention. In the early phase of Wilayat Khorasan, these attacks served as proof of capability, a demonstration of ideological purity, and a challenge to both the Taliban and regional intelligence services. Likely, the battlefield changed, after the Taliban takeover in 2021, ISIS‑K found itself under constant pressure, losing safe houses, facilitators, and freedom of movement. The group’s networks were disrupted, its commanders hunted, and its urban cells forced into survival mode. Under these conditions, high‑signature attacks became too costly, too risky, and too revealing. Every explosion exposed a logistical chain; every complex operation risked the loss of irreplaceable operatives. Thus, the tactical pivot emerged, SIS‑K shifted toward low‑signature attacks, operations that leave minimal forensic traces, require small teams, and allow rapid execution and escape. Grenade attacks, targeted shootings, magnetic IEDs, assassinations, and unclaimed bombings became the new norm. These strikes maintain pressure, create fear, and sustain the group’s relevance without exposing its command structure. Low‑signature attacks are harder to attribute, easier to repeat, and perfectly suited for a group rebuilding its networks under hostile conditions. The contrast is stark. High‑signature attacks were about spectacle; low‑signature attacks are about survival. High‑signature operations demanded resources, planning, and manpower; low‑signature operations demand only intent and opportunity. In the evolving landscape of Khorasan, ISIS‑K has learned that visibility can be fatal, and ambiguity can be a weapon. For analysts, this shift is not a sign of weakness, it is a sign of adaptation. ISIS‑K is recalibrating, conserving strength, and preparing for the next phase of its campaign. The group’s move into low‑signature operations reflects a deeper strategic logic: stay alive, stay relevant, and strike where attribution is blurred and response is delayed. Hence, in the shadow war of Khorasan, ISIS‑K has traded shockwaves for silence, and silence, in this conflict, is often more dangerous. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit ajmals.substack.com/subscribe

  6. Jun 4

    The Geopolitics of Terror: Afghanistan and Pakistan’s Shadow War

    The Transcript 1 second Recent remarks by Kayas, the EU foreign policy chief, during his trip to Islamabad 7 seconds have sparked a new wave of debate in political and media circles. In his blunt statement, 14 seconds he referred to attacks by groups based in Afghanistan against Pakistan, saying that Islamabad has the right to defend itself against these 23 secondsaggressions. This stance is significant for several reasons. First, it maysignal a shift in Europe’s — and even the world’s — discourse regardingAfghanistan’s security crisis after 30 seconds theTaliban’s return to power. Second, has Pakistan succeeded in convincing theinternational community that Taliban-ruled Afghanistan has become a base forterrorism against its neighbors and beyond? This is the debate of the day. 1:11 Greetings, welcome to “Debate of the Day.” I am Vaid Pekan, and my guests today are Mehrab Sarjoi, a Baloch political activist from London; Ajmal Sohail, counterterrorism expert from Germany; and Sang Siddiqi, political activist from the Netherlands. 1:27 We begin with Mr. Sohail: where is the geography of terrorism? Ajmal Sohail’s Remarks 1:36 It is very interesting, because today terrorism has no geography. 1:43 Terrorism today is largely directed through cyberspace, so we cannot designate a specific geography for terrorist activities. But what is important is that, as youmentioned, the EU seems to have been influenced by Pakistan’s narrative — thatPakistan is defending itself against 2:16 terrorist activities originating from Afghanistan. What pains me is that either theinternational community, the West, and Europe are turning a blind eye to thefacts, or they are being deceived by Pakistan. This is not new. 2:40 In 2011, when Osama bin Laden was hunted down in Pakistan during President Obama’s term, despite the fact that the U.S. had pursued him for 11 years as the symbol of anti-democracy and anti-American values, he was found in Pakistan. And in that same year, Pakistan became a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council. 3:36 If anyone researches how Pakistan managed to secure that seat in 2011, they will see the irony. Regarding the EU’s statements, what is striking is that Pakistan isbehind much of what happens in Afghanistan and the region. 4:07 If necessary, I can share written documents with you showing how Pakistan iscomplicit — not just complicit, but leading — in these matters, while trying towash its hands and blame Afghanistan. My aim is not to defend Afghanistan orthe Taliban, but to show that the Taliban are instruments of Pakistan, managedby it for tactical and strategic purposes. 5:10 I have a letter from Pakistan’s military intelligence (ISI), dated February 5 of thisyear, about a meeting in Rawalakot. Representatives of groups such as “Network47” led by Mufti Asghar Kashmiri, and Taliban representative Ibrahim Sadr, wereinvited. The meeting discussed relocating Kashmiri and Hamas militants intoAfghanistan and opening training centers. 6:20 The letter specifies provinces like Herat, Kandahar, and Helmand as locations for these camps. It was even confirmed by Afghan officials in Kandahar. 7:32 So where are the terrorist camps located? Without doubt, some are in Afghanistan, used by Pakistan against other countries — for example, against India through Kashmiri militants, and in the Middle East through Hamas. 8:28 Another letter from Pakistani intelligence refers to “Night Birds,” a codename forISIS-Khorasan. It states that ISI relocated ISIS fighters into Balochistan touse them against Baloch separatists and to pressure Afghanistan. 9:34 With the Taliban’s return, have terrorist centers shifted from Pakistan to Afghanistan?Partly, yes — for Pakistan’s tactical and strategic interests, especiallyagainst India, China, and in the Middle East. 10:32 Terroristgroups can be divided into three categories: · Global groups:al-Qaeda and ISIS. · Regional groups:ISIS-Khorasan, the Taliban, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, Islamic Movement ofTajikistan, etc. · Local groups:operating between Afghanistan and Pakistan with state awareness and support. 26:32 Now, why have the Taliban entered this game? What benefit do they see in supporting terrorist groups? 26:41Professionally speaking, we must clarify the definition of terrorism. If weaccept the cliché definition — any non-state group that takes up arms forpolitical, economic, social, religious, or ideological reasons, killingcivilians and disrupting life — then even resistance groups fighting oppressiveregimes would be called terrorists. 27:27 For example, Baloch liberation groups mostly target Pakistani military, notcivilians. If we apply the cliché definition, then even Ahmad Massoud’sNational Resistance Front fighting the Taliban would be labeled terrorist. Thatis incorrect. 28:44 We must distinguish between groups fighting a legitimate government versus those fighting an occupying, illegitimate regime. The Taliban themselves areterrorists, so resistance against them cannot be defined as terrorism. 30:07 Pakistan has succeeded in pushing its narrative diplomatically, through lobbying, so that EU officials echo its stance. Meanwhile, the Taliban have also lobbied to deny it. But the presence of terrorist groups in Afghanistan is undeniable. 30:49 The Taliban allow these groups to operate, giving Pakistan a pretext to claim “legitimate defense” and attack Afghanistan whenever it wishes. 31:15 Pakistan uses these groups as tools of influence — against Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and others. The Taliban lack deterrence power, so they use terrorist groups as a substitute for defense. 32:01 Afghanistan has indeed become recognized globally as a center of terrorism. 33:41 The Taliban’s strategy is not truly effective, but they use these groups to exertinfluence. Pakistan, however, has far greater freedom to threaten and attackAfghanistan under this pretext. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit ajmals.substack.com/subscribe

    The Geopolitics of Terror: Afghanistan and Pakistan’s Shadow War

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Jihadi-Terrorism and Insurgency, Militancy and Violent Extremism in Central-South Asia, Middle East and Africa. ajmals.substack.com