Navigating Noise

Filter Labs

Navigating Noise is a weekly interview show about how critical decisions get made when the data behind them breaks down. Hosts Jonathan Teubner, founder of AI intelligence company FilterLabs, and Erol Yayboke, former Pentagon deputy chief of staff, talk with analysts, operators, and decision-makers working in intelligence and information operations. Each episode asks one question: how do you know what's actually happening in places that are hard to see? Season 2 covers the data supply chain behind info ops, the analyst under pressure, and the future of the craft.

  1. 7h ago

    How Microsoft Predicted the Ukraine War Before the Pentagon with CSIS Director Emily Harding

    When Russia invaded Ukraine, it wasn't a general who saw it coming first… it was Microsoft. Sensors planted across Ukraine picked up a massive spike in cyberattacks on banks, transport, and command-and-control, and the company picked up the phone and warned the White House. That moment, says intelligence veteran Emily Harding, is when the line between a tech company and a defense company quietly disappeared. Harding is a VP at CSIS, a former CIA analyst, NSC Iran director, and architect of the bipartisan Senate Intelligence Russia report. She walks host Erol Yayboke through the most destabilizing shift in modern conflict: the data center is now a battlefield, and nobody has agreed on the rules. If Iran hits a server farm in Italy, who got attacked? If China strikes an AWS cloud, does the US go to war? These are the questions keeping deterrence strategists up at night, and the answers aren't written yet. In this conversation: Why Microsoft, Amazon, and Google are now "on the front lines" of three conflicts at onceThe 2014 Sony hack as a failed test case and what the US must do differentlyHow adversaries decide a hospital's data center is "fair game"The World War One alliance trap hiding inside US tech policyWhy Harding is an AI optimist who still calls ChatGPT a "professional mansplainer"How 90% of useful intelligence now lives in open source and why that's dangerousThe free-speech line a democracy can't cross, even to fight propaganda Subscribe to Navigating Noise for sharp analysis of the forces shaping global conflict and information. Watch on YouTube, listen on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

    37 min
  2. 6d ago

    Why Truth Is More Dangerous Than Lies in an Information War | Maggie Feldman-Piltch

    Maggie Feldman-Piltch calls herself a propagandist, and she means it. She made stickers of Putin's face with the Barbie movie font that spread to over two dozen languages, and she found out he wasn't happy about them. That, she'll tell you, is the whole point. In this episode, Maggie joins Erol to break down why America is fighting an information war with both hands tied… constrained by bureaucratic boxes built in 1947, a cultural allergy to the word "propaganda," and a fundamental misunderstanding of what that word actually means. Propaganda, she argues, is morally neutral. It's a tool. And the truth told better than a lie is the most powerful version of it. In this episode of Navigating Noise: - How a single Barbie-Putin sticker became a global campaign and why Maggie considers getting PNG'd from authoritarian countries a career goal - Why propaganda doesn't mean lies and how America's refusal to use the word is costing it the information war - The National Security Act of 1947 and why the bureaucratic "boxes" it created are hampering U.S. information operations - Why adversaries specifically target women's online spaces, and what that tells us about how they view democracy - The "dupe" vs. "counterfeit" shift and how language changes are used as a tool of influence - What the Knapsack Girl Squad, the Munich Security Conference bathroom, and a bedazzled phone-receiver handbag have in common - Her company Iceberg and why IP theft from consumer brands is a national security issue - The billboard she'd put up for billions to seeSubscribe to Navigating Noise on YouTube, Spotify, and Apple Podcasts. Follow Maggie on Substack at Non-State Actress.

    55 min
  3. Jun 2

    How to (Actually) Apply New Technology to Irregular Warfare, with Nickolas Wilcox @ CACI

    Nickolas Wilcox is a Senior Program Manager at CACI International and one of the lead practitioners shaping the future of irregular warfare and operations in the information environment. He has spent his career on both sides of the tool: as the Green Beret who inherited the thing that didn't work, and now as the person helping build the next one. His argument is blunt: the bottleneck was never the AI, the data, or the platform. It's the planning culture that treats risk as a bureaucratic barrier instead of a design variable. This episode of Navigating Noise is a practitioner's guide to what it would actually take to close that gap and an honest look at why the U.S. keeps not closing it. Highlights from this first episode of Season 2: Why Nick says "technology is the easy part" and what that means for anyone selling tools to the governmentThe concept of "speed of relevancy" and how to build a decision loop that can actually respond in timeWhy the U.S. is brilliant at individual-level influence and structurally unable to operate at scaleHow adversaries fill the narrative vacuum every time and why kinetic action without a story is open to interpretationMarket share of opinion: what it is, why it's the only endgame in irregular warfare, and how you lose it incrementallyWhat micro-targeting going biological actually looks like (and why a Walmart can already do it)How Nick ended up in law school and why learning to argue the law changed how he runs operations Subscribe to Navigating Noise on YouTube, Spotify, and Apple Podcasts.

    48 min
  4. 06/17/2025

    → How UFOs, Data, and Counterculture Collide: Chrissy Newton on Alien Encounters & Government Transparency

    In this episode of Navigating Noise, host Erol Yayboke sits down with Chrissy Newton, Founder of VOCAB Communications. They dive into the world of UFOs and UAPs through the lens of data analysis, emotional storytelling, and government transparency. Chrissy shares how her team approaches real eyewitness accounts, the surprising psychology behind belief in the unexplained, and how the UFO community is becoming a powerful countercultural force for transparency and change. They also explore how AI, policy, and fringe science are converging and why PR in the UFO space might be the most unforgiving in the world. ⏱️ Timestamps 00:00 – Intro: The many hats of Chrissy Newton 01:20 – Inside Discovery’s Alien Encounters: Fact or Fiction 02:30 – Evidence, psychology, and the Simon Cowell of UFOs 04:36 – How Chrissy applies data analysis to paranormal claims 06:34 – A UFO sighting in Toronto: How she verified it 08:40 – Telling people they’re wrong, without gaslighting them 11:00 – The UFO community as a global counterculture 13:39 – Chrissy’s communications work with Jacques Vallée & The Debrief 15:53 – How to do PR in the most skeptical space on the internet 18:53 – Why transparency is the #1 rule in the UFO world 20:36 – Why the UFO community is so passionate 23:24 – Fringe science, funding, and optimism 27:50 – Where AI meets UFO analysis and government policy 29:55 – Why shaping policy might be Chrissy’s next move 31:06 – The surprising people she meets on planes 35:54 – A Winston Churchill World War II nugget you won’t forget 🎧 Subscribe for more conversations like these #UFOs #AlienEncounters #ChrissyNewton #DiscoveryChannel #TheDebrief #FringeScience #GovernmentTransparency #NavigatingNoise #RebelliouslyCurious #DataAnalysis #AI #UAPs #PolicyChange

    37 min
  5. 06/10/2025

    Why the U.S.–China Relationship Feels So Tense Right Now, with Rorry Daniels, Managing Director, Asia Society Policy Institute

    A new normal? In this episode, Rorry Daniels, Managing Director of the Asia Society Policy Institute, and Erol Yayboke discuss U.S. - China competition and the changing global order. Rorry shares her surprising path from underground theater in LA to China policy leadership, and unpacks the misunderstood layers of the U.S.–China relationship, from national identity and economic anxiety to why both countries may be abandoning the rules-based global order. Erol and Rorry explore everything from: - Track 2 diplomacy - AI’s impact on political instability in Asia - How Chinese netizens are subtly pushing back - What most Western analysts still get wrong about Beijing Whether you're in tech, policy, or just trying to make sense of where the world is heading, this episode will give you new language and new frames, to understand the world’s most important bilateral relationship. — ⏱️ Timestamps 00:00 – Intro 01:00 – From screenwriting in LA to U.S.–China policy 02:00 – Producing a musical about terrorism (yes, really) 04:00 – Learning Chinese and discovering diplomacy 06:00 – What is Track 2 diplomacy, and why it matters 08:00 – How language shapes perception (and misperception) 10:00 – Building better AI with better language models 12:00 – China’s view of propaganda vs U.S. assumptions 14:00 – Are we living in “normal” geopolitical times again? 16:00 – Why China didn’t become more like the U.S. 18:00 – The two anxieties driving U.S. China policy 21:00 – The strategic geography of U.S. allies 24:00 – Why AI and chips are now central to foreign policy 26:00 – Can Asia avoid a U.S.–China “hegemony trap”? 28:00 – China’s mixed legacy with the rules-based order 30:00 – How Chinese citizens really feel about nationalism 34:00 – The code-switching and satire of Chinese netizens 36:00 – Why even top U.S. analysts misread China 39:00 – Can we model China’s future behavior? 42:00 – The push for modernity (and what may get in the way) 45:00 – What AI disruption means for Southeast Asia 48:00 – Will China adopt AI faster and at what cost? 51:00 – Why AI regulation in Asia is lagging behind 53:00 – How ASPI is convening the future of AI policy in Asia 🎧 Subscribe for more conversations like these. #china #usforeignpolicy #geopolitics #asiapolicy #aiandethics #asiainsideout #aspi #track2diplomacy #chinanetizens #uschina #navigatingnoise

    44 min
  6. 06/03/2025

    Rethinking Demographics, Power, and the Future, with Dr. Jen Sciubba, President & CEO of Population Reference Bureau

    The world is changing faster than our assumptions can keep up. In this episode of Navigating Noise, Erol Yayboke sits down with world-renowned demographer and President of the Population Reference Bureau, Dr. Jennifer Sciubba, to unpack one of the most misunderstood forces shaping our future: population change. They dive into: Why most U.S. cities are unprepared for depopulation The myths around immigration as a “fix” What demographers can predict with stunning accuracy and what they can’t Why flourishing, not fertility rates, should guide public policy The dangerous consequences of failing to fund and protect global data collection And how narrative bias, not numbers, shapes most of our debates on population If you care about the future of work, urban planning, national security, education, or climate adaptation… this conversation is for you. Dr. Sciubba is the author of 8 Billion and Counting: How Sex, Death, and Migration Shape Our World and a former advisor to the Department of Defense and U.S. intelligence community. Listen in and rethink what the data actually tells us. — To learn more about the Population Reference Bureau and their work, visit: https://www.prb.org To keep up with Jen, connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jensciubba New episodes of Navigating Noise drop weekly. Search for us wherever you get your podcasts.

    42 min

Ratings & Reviews

5
out of 5
2 Ratings

About

Navigating Noise is a weekly interview show about how critical decisions get made when the data behind them breaks down. Hosts Jonathan Teubner, founder of AI intelligence company FilterLabs, and Erol Yayboke, former Pentagon deputy chief of staff, talk with analysts, operators, and decision-makers working in intelligence and information operations. Each episode asks one question: how do you know what's actually happening in places that are hard to see? Season 2 covers the data supply chain behind info ops, the analyst under pressure, and the future of the craft.