CAPS Unlock Podcast

Peter Leonard
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  1. 3d ago

    Caspian tragedy forces Kazakhstan’s army reckoning

    We began this week’s edition of the CAPS Unlock podcast with the deaths of 14 Kazakh servicemen during a naval exercise on the Caspian coast. Seventeen men were swept into the sea during an amphibious landing, but only three survived. The Defence Ministry initially attributed the disaster to a sudden deterioration in the weather, but weather forecasters had already issued a warning. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev later said the servicemen had not been properly equipped with life jackets. Five officers have been detained, Defence Minister Dauren Kosanov has been removed, and two commissions are examining both the incident and the wider condition of Kazakhstan’s armed forces. The tragedy has revived arguments over military safety, compulsory service and whether lessons were learned after a similar fatal exercise in 2015. Also, we considered Kyrgyzstan’s order for 10 freight locomotives from the U.S. company Wabtec. The purchase will renew almost a third of the national operator’s fleet and comes as Kyrgyzstan builds the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway. Wabtec is American, but its regional manufacturing base is the LKZ factory in Astana, which it now owns outright. We trace that factory’s Kazakh, Russian and American history, and ask how the locomotive order fits alongside Chinese railway construction and Kyrgyzstan’s new transit-trade agreement with Pakistan. These projects reveal an emerging transport system built from American technology, Kazakh industry, Chinese infrastructure and access to South Asian ports. For our interview, recorded during ASIAC Days in Almaty, we spoke to Aleksei Chigadaev, a doctoral candidate in political science at Freie Universität Berlin. His ongoing research treats Chinese e-commerce as a form of infrastructural power. Chinese companies may supply not only a product but also the marketplace, payment system, warehouse, delivery network and data storage behind the purchase. This makes trade more efficient and easier to regulate, but it may also leave Kazakhstan dependent on commercial systems controlled elsewhere. Links * 14 Dead on the Caspian: What Questions Has the Tragedy Posed for Kazakhstan’s Army?, Informburo * Kazakhstan’s Tokayev Dismisses Defence Minister After 14 Die During Naval Exercise, Reuters * Bodies of Two Missing Caspian Servicemen Found; Search Operation Completed, Kazakhstan Ministry of Defence * Kyrgyzstan Will Purchase 10 Mainline Freight Locomotives from the United States, Kabar * How Kazakhstan Is Poised to Drive Wabtec’s Growth in Central Asia, Wabtec * Work Proceeds on Tunnels for the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan Railway, Kyrgyz Ministry of Transport and Communications * Joint Statement by the Leaders of Pakistan and Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan Ministry of Foreign Affairs Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

  2. Sep 22

    Why does gas-rich Kazakhstan need Gazprom?

    This week, after an unplanned delay, we return to the podcast with a discussion of Kazakhstan’s seemingly growing reliance on Russian natural gas for its domestic needs. The country plans to buy around 11 billion cubic metres from Gazprom in 2026, almost three times last year’s volume, with another 9 billion under discussion for 2027. That sounds counterintuitive for a major oil-and-gas producer. The explanation lies less in the size of Kazakhstan’s reserves than in its ability to process the gas it extracts and turn it into marketable fuel. Disruptions at Tengiz, damage to the Russian processing plant serving Karachaganak and repeated delays to new processing capacity at Kashagan have squeezed supply just as household connections and industrial demand have expanded. Russian imports may address the immediate shortage, but the continued high volumes anticipated next year point to a more structural problem. In our other topic of discussion, we turn to the case of Mansur Movlayev, a 31-year-old Chechen dissident detained in Kazakhstan since May 2025. Russia seeks his extradition over an accusation that he financed extremist activity. Movlayev says the case is politically motivated and that Chechen security forces previously abducted and tortured him. Kazakhstan has refused him asylum and approved his extradition, although an interim-measures request from the UN Human Rights Committee calls on Kazakhstan not to remove him while it considers his complaint. After Kazakhstan’s Cassation Court upheld the refusal of asylum, Movlayev attempted to take his own life and reportedly made a second attempt while he received hospital treatment. His case tests Kazakhstan’s obligation not to return anyone to a country where they face a credible risk of torture. For our interview this week, we speak to Zebo Isakova, Doctor of Science in Economics at Kimyo International University in Tashkent. Her paper, “Corridors Without Coordination: Why Uzbekistan’s Digital Trade Reforms Have Not Yet Produced an Integrated Export System,” appears in The Argument, CAPS Unlock’s policy essay series. Isakova argues that Uzbekistan has invested heavily in roads, railways and digital trade procedures without fully connecting the agencies responsible for individual shipments. Exporters must still navigate separate systems, repeat information and wait for sequential approvals. Larger companies can absorb those costs; smaller businesses frequently cannot. Links * Corridors Without Coordination: Why Uzbekistan’s Digital Trade Reforms Have Not Yet Produced an Integrated Export System, by Zebo Isakova * Why Has Kazakhstan Started Deporting Political Activists?, by Temur Umarov * Russian Gas Supplies to Kazakhstan Could Triple to 11 bcm in 2026 — Deputy Minister, Interfax Kazakhstan * Россия захватывает газовую отрасль Казахстана? (Is Russia Taking Control of Kazakhstan’s Gas Industry?), Exclusive.kz * “I’m Tired of Injustice”: Chechen Activist Mansur Movlayev Attempted Suicide After Kazakhstan Denied Him Asylum, Bureau.kz * Остался только страх. Почему Казахстан отказывает в убежище уроженцу Чечни (Only Fear Remains: Why Kazakhstan Is Denying Asylum to a Chechen Native), Caucasus.Realities Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

  3. Sep 1

    SCO’s future looking increasingly Chinese

    This week, we begin in Bishkek, where leaders have gathered for a Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit that marks 25 years since the group took its present institutional form. The prestige has come at a considerable cost for the host city, with road closures, commercial restrictions and severe disruption as Kyrgyzstan stages the summit alongside the World Nomad Games. We look back at the SCO’s origins as a forum created to settle borders and reduce tension between China, Russia and the newly independent Central Asian states. We then ask what the organisation has become as its membership and ambitions have expanded. China now dominates regional trade, supplies the manufactured goods Central Asia wants and buys many of its raw materials. Russia remains important through migration, security and inherited economic links, but it cannot match China’s manufacturing capacity. We also examine the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway and Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s reported praise for “Chinese-style modernisation,” a revealing sign of China’s appeal as an economic, technological and increasingly political model. From Bishkek, we turn to Kazakhstan’s first election for its new 145-seat, single-chamber Kurultai. Adilet won 71.17 percent of the vote and 110 seats after it absorbed the former ruling party, Amanat. International observers said the election was technically well prepared but offered little genuine political choice. We consider whether Kazakhstan’s promised constitutional reset has produced anything substantially new, as well as the appointments of Yerlan Karin as vice president and Aibek Dadebay as speaker. We also look ahead to the new People’s Council and the succession speculation that now surrounds the 2029 presidential election. For our interview this week, we spoke with Ainagul Amatbekova, lead researcher for State of Youth Civic Engagement in Kyrgyzstan’s Shrinking Civic Space. The report challenges the idea that young Kyrgyz people have become apathetic. Civic participation has not disappeared, but has become quieter, safer and more local, with greater emphasis on volunteer work, mutual aid, education and online activity. Amatbekova explains how political pressure intersects with less visible barriers such as poverty, migration, gender and the divide between urban and rural communities. She also sets out what governments, civil society organisations and donors could do to make youth participation safer, more meaningful and more accessible. Links State of Youth Civic Engagement in Kyrgyzstan’s Shrinking Civic Space — https://capsunlock.org/publications/state-of-youth-civic-engagement-in-kyrgyzstans-shrinking-civic-space/ World Nomad Games: Did the Experiment Work? — https://capsunlock.org/world-nomad-games-did-the-experiment-work/ Xinhua report on Xi Jinping’s meeting with Shavkat Mirziyoyev and “Chinese-style modernisation” - https://russian.news.cn/20260901/860d5d94ce8d4b43b4af0f52c0ddd52d/c.html OSCE/ODIHR, preliminary findings on Kazakhstan’s parliamentary election - https://odihr.osce.org/odihr/667167 Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

  4. Jul 21

    From population boom to AI diplomacy: Central Asia's next chapter

    Central Asia is one of the world’s youngest and fastest-growing regions, but what do the latest demographic trends tell us about its future? This episode begins with new population figures from Kyrgyzstan, where the latest statistics point not only to continued growth but also to accelerating urbanisation. The discussion explores why Bishkek is expanding faster than the country as a whole, what falling fertility means for the region in the longer term, and why demographic change is becoming one of Central Asia’s defining policy challenges. The conversation then turns to Uzbekistan, where the country’s first population census in more than three decades revealed more than 810,000 additional residents compared with previous official estimates. We discuss what this means for measuring economic performance, labour markets and long-term development planning, and why the census may ultimately improve policymaking despite raising new questions about productivity and employment. In our interview section, Hugh McLean, Senior Adviser on Climate Change Education at CAPS Unlock, discusses an upcoming new policy discussion paper arguing that climate change education should become a compulsory element of education systems across Central Asia. Drawing on more than 1,000 contributions from young people through the Turn It Around Central Asia initiative, he explains why climate education should focus not only on environmental knowledge but also on agency, community action and preparing future generations for a changing climate. The episode concludes with a discussion of the World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai, where China outlined its vision for global AI governance. The hosts examine Kazakhstan’s participation, the creation of a new international AI cooperation organisation, Central Asia’s increasingly important role in global technology diplomacy, and the opportunities and risks that accompany growing dependence on foreign AI ecosystems. LINKS Turn It Around project - https://capsunlock.org/projects/tia-central-asia-cards-eng/ Kyrgyzstan population news - https://24.kg/obschestvo/381849_naselenie_kyirgyizstana_prevyisilo_74milliona_chto_pokazala_novaya_statistika/ Uzbekistan population surpasses 39 million - https://www.gazeta.uz/ru/2026/06/30/population-uzbekistan/ Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

  5. Jul 14

    Kazakhstan’s uranium bargain with China

    Central Asia’s electricity systems are under growing strain. Kyrgyzstan expects to import more than 4 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity this year as rising demand collides with its heavy dependence on hydropower and low water levels at the Toktogul Reservoir. Tajikistan faces a similar problem: reduced inflows into the Nurek Reservoir have cut power generation and forced the government to curb electricity exports ahead of another difficult winter. Uzbekistan, meanwhile, has set a new record for summer electricity consumption as extreme heat drives greater use of air conditioning. The country has so far managed to match demand with production, helped by rapid growth in solar generation. But the wider regional problem remains unresolved: despite complementary power systems, electricity trade within Central Asia still accounts for only a small share of total demand. This week’s guest is Antoine Magnier, a master’s student in political science at McGill University who recently completed an internship with CAPS Unlock. His new paper, Kazakhstan’s Uranium Bargain: Trading Resources for Technology, examines the deepening nuclear relationship between Kazakhstan and China. China needs secure uranium supplies for its rapidly expanding fleet of nuclear reactors and wants foreign markets for its technology. Kazakhstan wants to move beyond the export of raw uranium and secure a larger role in fuel production, reactor construction and the wider nuclear supply chain. Magnier explains how Astana is attempting to trade access to its resources for technology, while avoiding excessive dependence on either China or Russia. The episode closes with a look at how false copyright complaints and coordinated reporting campaigns can turn social-media moderation systems into tools of extortion and political pressure against journalists, media outlets and election observers in Kazakhstan. LINKS * Antoine Magnier, Kazakhstan’s Uranium Bargain: Trading Resources for Technology - https://capsunlock.org/publications/kazakhstans-uranium-bargain-trading-resources-for-technology-2/ * Uzbekistan’s record summer electricity consumption - https://www.spot.uz/ru/2026/07/11/electricity-summer/ * Kyrgyzstan’s projected electricity imports for 2026 - https://24.kg/ekonomika/381062_bolee_4milliardov_kilovatt-chasov_elektroenergii_importiruetkr_v2026_godu/ * Tajikistan’s winter electricity outlook and Nurek Reservoir levels - https://asiaplus.news/2026/07/13/predstoyashhej-zimoj-sveta-budet-bolshe-ministr-energetiki-tadzhikistana-dal-prognoz-na-otopitelnyj-sezon/ Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

  6. Jul 7

    The rise of AI surveillance in Kazakhstan

    Uzbekistan’s strategic outlook continues to evolve. This week we examine President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s landmark state visit to Georgia, the first by an Uzbek president in more than two decades. Beyond the diplomatic symbolism, we discuss what was actually agreed: plans to deepen cooperation on the Middle Corridor, new logistics infrastructure centred on Georgia’s Black Sea ports, and a growing economic partnership that could reshape Uzbekistan’s access to European markets. We then turn to Kyrgyzstan, where former security chief Kamchybek Tashiyev has been convicted in the high-profile “Letter of the 75” case. We assess why the suspended prison sentence matters, what it says about the relationship between President Sadyr Japarov and his former ally, and whether the latest reshuffle of the country’s security apparatus represents genuine institutional reform or simply a redistribution of power. In our interview slot, we’re joined by Paolo Sorbello, editor of the English service of independent Kazakhstan news outlet Vlast.kz, to discuss his major recent investigation into the country’s rapidly expanding digital surveillance infrastructure. Drawing on extensive reporting, Sorbello explains how facial recognition, AI-powered CCTV, smart-city projects and large-scale data collection are becoming embedded in everyday life. We discuss the government’s case for these technologies, their role in policing and public services, and the broader questions they raise about privacy, accountability and political control. LINKS * Paolo Sorbello’s feature on Kazakhstan’s digital surveillance system (Vlast.kz) - https://vlast.kz/english/69775-kazakhstans-big-brother.html Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

  7. Jun 30

    The long arm of Turkmenistan

    Russia’s fuel crisis is no longer just Russia’s problem. As Ukrainian strikes continue to disrupt refinery capacity, shortages are spreading across the country, forcing Moscow to manage supplies and raising difficult questions for its neighbours. We examine what this means for Kazakhstan, whose own refining capacity remains limited despite its vast oil reserves, and for Kyrgyzstan, which depends heavily on Russian fuel imports. We also look at how widening price differences have fuelled an extraordinary smuggling economy stretching across Central Asia. We then turn to President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s visit to Brussels. While headlines focused on the announcement of roughly $12 billion in commercial agreements, we ask whether the more consequential developments were political rather than financial. We discuss progress towards an EU-Kazakhstan visa facilitation agreement, new aviation arrangements, and what closer cooperation with European partners could mean for Kazakhstan’s long-term economic development and technological ambitions. In the interview slot, we speak with Hugh Williamson, director of the Europe and Central Asia division at Human Rights Watch, following the publication of the organisation’s major new report on Turkmenistan’s campaign against activists at home and abroad. The report documents imprisonment, enforced disappearances, surveillance of exiled dissidents, pressure on family members, passport restrictions and alleged forced returns from countries including Turkey and Russia. Williamson explains how Turkmenistan has expanded its methods of transnational repression, why September 2022 marked a turning point, and whether international pressure can realistically improve one of the world’s most closed political systems. Links * Human Rights Watch report on Turkmenistan’s transnational repression of activists - https://www.hrw.org/feature/2026/06/24/lives-destroyed-for-speaking-out-turkmen-activists-at-home-and-in-exile/the * Reuters report on Russia’s request to Kazakhstan for AI-92 gasoline supplies - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-asks-kazakhstan-gasoline-ease-shortages-sources-say-2026-06-24/ * European Commission statement following President Tokayev’s visit to Brussels - https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/de/statement_26_1436 Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

  8. Jun 23

    What Central Asia teaches us about happiness

    This week’s episode begins with Uzbekistan’s historic World Cup appearance, the first by any Central Asian country. The opening match against Colombia did not deliver the result Uzbek fans wanted, but it did produce the country’s first ever World Cup goal and a striking display of regional support. From fan zones in Bishkek to messages of solidarity from neighbouring countries, Uzbekistan’s campaign has become more than a football story. It has also offered a glimpse of how sport can shape identity, pride and regional feeling across Central Asia. The episode then turns to Kazakhstan, where the newly created Adilet party has merged with Amanat, the long-dominant pro-presidential party formerly known as Nur Otan. What initially looked like a potential shake-up of Kazakhstan’s managed political system now looks more like a rebranding exercise. The discussion looks at what the merger says about political engineering, elite management and the coming elections to Kazakhstan’s new single-chamber Kurultai. For this week’s interview, the focus shifts to a very different subject: happiness. Professor Shoirakhon Nurdinova of the Kimyo International University in Tashkent discusses her book Happiness and Life Satisfaction in Central Asia, the first major comparative study of subjective well-being across the region. The book asks how people in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan evaluate their own lives, and whether standard international measures of happiness capture what really matters in Central Asia. Nurdinova argues that income and GDP alone do not explain life satisfaction. Family trust, freedom of choice, informal support networks, health, employment patterns and local institutions such as the mahalla can matter just as much, and sometimes more. The conversation also explores why Western models of happiness may fail to capture Central Asian realities, and what policymakers should learn from looking beyond growth figures. Links Shoirakhon Nurdinova, Happiness and Life Satisfaction in Central Asia — https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-95-3082-3 Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

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havli.substack.com

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  • Creator
    Peter Leonard
  • Years Active
    2024 - 2026
  • Episodes
    61
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Peter Leonard
  • Show Website
    CAPS Unlock Podcast

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