Texas Land Guys: The Art of Real Estate Deal Making

Texas Land Guys

The Dosch brothers share an insiders perspective on transacting the biggest commercial land deals shaping the Lone Star State. With decades of experience brokering deals between land owners and real estate developers they discuss the art of making these deals happen in a fast paced competitive market. With their partners, they have built the leading commercial land brokerage company in the State of Texas, covering the booming TX triangle, with offices in Houston, DFW and Austin/San Antonio. Through their podcast they bring you into the boardroom and inside the deals that move the market.

  1. 6d ago

    Episode 83: 4 Types of Sellers—and How to Negotiate With Them with Trey McGhin

    In this episode of the Texas Land Guys Podcast, Tom Dosch and Trey McGhin break down four common types of developers and sellers they encounter in Texas land deals. They explain how each type approaches negotiations and why recognizing these patterns can lead to better outcomes. Every property has a story, but every developer has a strategy. Knowing the difference can mean closing a deal or watching it fall apart. Tom and Trey walk through four seller types they regularly see in Texas land transactions: the High Anchor, the Shop It Around seller, the Slow Walker, and the Term Trader. Rather than treating these behaviors as obstacles, they dig into what motivates each one, why they negotiate the way they do, and how buyers and brokers can respond effectively without making costly mistakes. Through real negotiation stories, they highlight how patience, trust, and clear communication often outperform aggressive tactics. The conversation also zooms out to the bigger picture of Texas real estate, including how new wealth flowing into the state is fueling investment in land and development. But no matter how strong the market becomes, successful deals still come down to understanding people. Sellers want different things, buyers face different pressures, and brokers play a critical role in keeping negotiations productive rather than emotional. Whether you are buying land, selling property, or simply curious about how major deals come together, this episode offers practical insights into the human side of negotiation and the strategies that help both sides reach the closing table. Key Takeaways Wealth from ventures like SpaceX is flowing into Texas land and development. That trend continues to fuel the state's growth. Sellers often fall into recognizable negotiating patterns. Knowing which type you're dealing with changes your strategy. The High Anchor seller starts far above market value and refuses to budge. Patience or market growth is often the only path to a deal. The Shop-It-Around seller quietly pits buyers against each other. That approach erodes trust and can drive away serious developers. The Slow Walker uses silence and delays as leverage. Sometimes it's strategic. Other times, it's caused by family ownership, LLC issues, or other complications. The Term Trader negotiates every detail, even small ones. Even so, they usually want to reach the closing table. A strong property can overcome a difficult seller. These tactics rarely work on a weak site. The best response is a credible willingness to walk away. That message is usually stronger in person than over email. Brokers who educate sellers with real market data build trust. That trust often leads to repeat business, even when a deal doesn't close. In This Episode: [00:00] Introduction [00:27] Catching up with Trey McGhin [00:56] The road to becoming a quadrillionaire [01:57] Wealth flows into Texas land [03:49] Introducing the four types of land sellers [05:41] High anchor sellers [11:25] Shop-it-around sellers [17:57] Slow walker negotiators [24:48] Term trader deal points [27:54] How to counter difficult sellers: the credible walk-away [33:05] Wrap up and where to follow  Resources and Links Podcast Texas Land Guys Podcast https://dmre.com/ Trey McGhin https://www.linkedin.com/in/trey-mcghin-14926960 https://dmre.com/ https://ascentinv.com/ https://100xharvest.org/ Tom Dosch https://www.linkedin.com/in/tom-dosch-37263b3b/ https://dmre.com/ https://ascentinv.com/ https://100xharvest.org/

    Episode 83: 4 Types of Sellers—and How to Negotiate With Them with Trey McGhin
  2. Jul 28

    Episode 82: Why Everyone's Wrong About Data Centers

    In this episode of the Texas Land Guys Podcast, hosts Tom and Tim Dosch tackle one of the most polarizing topics in commercial real estate today: data centers. Once seen as cutting-edge, high-tech assets, data centers have become a political lightning rod, with opposition surging across the political spectrum. The brothers break down the real arguments, both for and against, and explore why data centers are critical infrastructure for the modern digital economy. Tom and Tim share their firsthand experience working on data center deals, from the speculative early days to today's complex, highly regulated environment. They address common misconceptions about water and power consumption, comparing data center usage to everyday staples like almonds, and explain why the narrative of "greedy developers" doesn't hold up to scrutiny. The conversation also covers the long, risky process of securing power, the massive deposits required, and why many sellers still refuse to sell to data center buyers, even at a premium. The episode also delves into the geopolitical implications of the data center race. With China producing more than twice as much electricity as the United States and rapidly expanding its AI capabilities, the brothers argue that limiting data center development is not simply an economic mistake but a national security concern. They also explore futuristic solutions, including Elon Musk's vision for space-based data centers, and discuss how countries like Argentina could become AI hubs if excessive regulation pushes investment away from the U.S.  Whether you're a landowner, developer, or just someone trying to understand the noise around data centers, this episode offers a balanced, insider perspective on one of the most consequential debates in real estate today. Key Takeaways Data centers have become critical infrastructure supporting AI, cloud computing, and the digital economy. Power availability, not land, is often the biggest obstacle to developing new data centers. Texas remains one of the nation's leading destinations for large-scale data center development because of its business-friendly environment. Expanding power generation will play a major role in supporting future economic growth and AI innovation. The U.S. is in a direct infrastructure and AI race with China, which is investing heavily in nuclear power and data center capacity. Elon Musk’s SpaceX and others are exploring space-based data centers as a potential solution to terrestrial power and cooling constraints. Understanding the facts behind data center development helps landowners and investors make better long-term decisions. In This Episode: [00:00] Introduction [02:44] Texas is the data center capital of the world [03:35] How the political attacks on data centers escalated [08:24] The water usage debate and the almond industry comparison [11:05] Debunking the "zero regulation" narrative [13:49] Power, the grid, and long-term utility investment [15:54] Why data center land deals are so hard to close [19:41] The U.S.-China nuclear power gap [21:13] China vs. U.S. electricity production by the numbers [22:11] Data centers in space and the SpaceX angle [26:25] Anthropic, OpenAI, and the U.S.-China AI race [27:42] Texas's pro-growth stance on data centers and AI [28:09] Is opposition to data centers really bipartisan? [28:41] Speculation on where the anti-data center narrative originates [30:26] Where data centers actually get built [32:27] Closing thoughts: data centers as infrastructure  Resources and Links Podcast Texas Land Guys Podcast https://dmre.com/ Tim Dosch https://www.linkedin.com/in/tim-dosch-67a07899 https://dmre.com/ https://ascentinv.com/ https://100xharvest.org/ Tom Dosch https://www.linkedin.com/in/tom-dosch-37263b3b/ https://dmre.com/ https://ascentinv.com/ https://100xharvest.org/

    Episode 82: Why Everyone's Wrong About Data Centers
  3. Jul 21

    Episode 81: Where the Herd Is Going (And What They're Missing)

    In this episode of the Texas Land Guys Podcast, Tom Dosch sits down with Trey McGhin to examine where development activity is moving across Dallas-Fort Worth. They break down improving multifamily leasing, stronger industrial demand, and the submarkets attracting the most attention from developers and investors. The conversation explores why apartment concessions are beginning to tighten after years of oversupply and declining rents. Tom and Trey explain how fewer construction starts, lower construction costs, and improved leasing velocity could create a meaningful opportunity for multifamily developers who can secure capital. They also address the disconnect between improving real estate fundamentals and one of the toughest equity markets experienced developers have seen. Institutional investors remain cautious, while developers with private capital, creative financing, and strong equity relationships are finding ways to stay active. Tom and Trey share real intelligence from the field, including nearly 40 offers on a Plano property, strong leasing velocity in Grand Prairie, record-setting land sales in McKinney, and rising industrial demand tied to AI and data centers. They also identify markets where raising capital remains difficult and highlight the areas they believe offer the strongest opportunities over the next three to five years. Key Takeaways Multifamily leasing is improving across several established DFW submarkets. Apartment concessions are tightening as fewer projects enter the pipeline. Lower construction costs are creating a temporary opportunity for developers. Institutional equity remains difficult to secure despite improving fundamentals. Industrial demand continues to strengthen because of AI and data centers. Grand Prairie remains strong across multiple development types. Plano is becoming one of DFW’s most competitive development markets. McKinney and Celina may offer strong long-term opportunities. Chisholm Trail, Anna, Melissa, Denton, and Celina remain challenging for institutional capital. In this episode: [00:00] Introduction[00:28] Tom Dosch welcomes Trey McGhin[02:32] A volatile start to 2026[03:14] Interest rate uncertainty[04:38] Improving multifamily leasing across DFW[07:29] Has the apartment market reached the bottom?[09:40] Lower construction starts and future rent growth[11:44] Why it may be go time for multifamily developers[12:45] Falling construction costs[13:21] AI, data centers, and industrial demand[14:22] Improving fundamentals versus the equity freeze[16:19] Where the development herd is going[18:15] Grand Prairie and North Dallas demand[24:28] Plano’s development momentum[29:20] The long-term case for McKinney[30:42] Celina’s short-term challenges[35:00] The top DFW markets for development[37:21] Markets where raising capital remains difficult[39:08] Closing remarks Resources and Links Podcast Texas Land Guys Podcast https://dmre.com/ Trey McGhin linkedin.com/in/trey-mcghin-14926960 https://dmre.com/ https://ascentinv.com/ https://100xharvest.org/ Tom Dosch https://www.linkedin.com/in/tom-dosch-37263b3b/ https://dmre.com/ https://ascentinv.com/ https://100xharvest.org/

    Episode 81: Where the Herd Is Going (And What They're Missing)
  4. Jul 14

    Episode 80: Trends Shaping the Back Half of 2026

    In this episode of the Texas Land Guys Podcast, brothers Tom Dosch and Tim Dosch reunite after summer travels to take the pulse of the Texas land market. They break down the surprising activity in DFW multifamily, the steady but cautious vibe in Houston, and the shifting sentiment as we head into the back half of 2026. The conversation dives deep into the headwinds and tailwinds shaping the market: interest rate uncertainty, the lingering effects of the Iran war on inflation, and the massive capital still chasing “blue chip” suburban sites. They also tackle the bigger picture, including how AI is reshaping the workforce, why consumers are feeling squeezed despite positive job numbers, and the looming battle over data center development and regulation. Tom and Tim share real intel from the field, including a Plano property that generated 35 offers in 13 days, the return of infill development in Houston’s inner loop, and why some landowners may finally be forced to capitulate on pricing as bank extensions run dry. They also explore the K-shaped economy, SpaceX’s big move to Grimes County, and what the Federal Reserve’s next move could mean for developers and sellers alike. Tune in for a grounded, forward-looking discussion on where the Texas land market stands and where it’s headed through the rest of 2026. Key Takeaways Texas real estate is showing early signs of stabilization after an uncertain first half of 2026. Multifamily fundamentals are improving in select submarkets as leasing activity strengthens. Institutional investors remain eager to acquire high-quality development sites despite elevated interest rates. Many speculative landowners continue holding unrealistic pricing expectations based on the 2021 market. Higher cap rates remain one of the biggest obstacles to new development and investment sales. Texas continues to benefit from billions of dollars in AI, energy, and infrastructure investment. Consumer affordability remains a growing concern for both housing demand and the broader economy. AI is increasing productivity across businesses, but its long-term impact on employment remains uncertain. Data centers are becoming one of the most important and controversial real estate asset classes. The second half of 2026 will likely be shaped by interest rates, AI adoption, regulation, and continued population growth in Texas. In This Episode: [00:00] Introduction [00:33] Summer travel and balancing work with family [04:36] Q2 Texas market review begins [04:51] Dallas–Fort Worth market outlook [07:22] Houston market update [08:23] Why multifamily fundamentals are improving [12:06] Q3 predictions begin [12:06] Interest rates and market expectations [18:46] Cap rates and investment sales challenges [21:36] Federal debt and inflation concerns [24:14] Consumer affordability and AI's impact on jobs [27:17] Housing affordability challenges [32:14] AI, productivity, and future employment [34:22] Data centers and AI infrastructure [36:07] Public resistance to AI and regulation [37:48] Why Texas remains well-positioned [40:23] Final predictions for the second half of 2026 [40:55] Closing remarks  Resources and Links Podcast Texas Land Guys Podcast https://dmre.com/ Tom Dosch https://www.linkedin.com/in/tom-dosch-37263b3b/ https://dmre.com/ https://ascentinv.com/ https://100xharvest.org/ Tim Dosch https://www.linkedin.com/in/tim-dosch-67a07899 https://dmre.com/ https://ascentinv.com/ https://100xharvest.org/

    Episode 80: Trends Shaping the Back Half of 2026
  5. Jul 7

    Episode 79: What Banks Really Want From Developers in 2026 with Matthew Heinrich

    In this episode of the Texas Land Guys Podcast, host Tom Dosch sits down with the show’s first-ever banking guest, Matthew Heinrich of Liberty Capital Bank. Matthew brings a unique perspective to the table, having transitioned from a decade in the fitness industry to a 15-year career in commercial lending. The conversation covers the current state of land lending in Texas, the importance of communication in banking, and the explosive growth reshaping the northern DFW suburbs. Matthew pulls back the curtain on how banks evaluate land loans, explaining why only about 30% of banks have a strong appetite for land deals right now, and why relationship and communication are the true currencies that keep projects alive. He also shares his passion for church lending and his leadership role as Executive Director of Dallas Real Estate Ministries (DREAM) , a 40-year-old organization that brings together real estate professionals for networking, discipleship, and doing business with God at the center. The conversation also turns to the explosive growth of McKinney, where Matthew has lived for over 22 years. He reflects on watching the city more than double in population, the transformation of Highway 121 from a dirt-bike track to a 12-lane corridor, and the massive developments now stretching north toward Melissa and Anna. Whether you're a developer, landowner, or just someone interested in the intersection of faith and business, this episode is packed with insight. Tune in for an insightful conversation on banking, leadership, faith, and the relationships that drive successful real estate deals. Key Takeaways Banks remain interested in land lending, but they are significantly more selective than they were a few years ago. The strongest land loans have a clearly defined development plan rather than a long-term buy-and-hold strategy. Most banks would rather help borrowers work through challenges than foreclose on a property. Commercial banking is fundamentally a relationship business built on trust and long-term partnerships. Church lending requires balancing faith with financial wisdom and disciplined planning. Dallas Real Estate Ministries has become one of the fastest-growing faith-based real estate communities in North Texas. McKinney's rapid expansion illustrates how infrastructure, jobs, and thoughtful development continue pushing North Texas growth northward. Long-term success in both business and life comes from combining expertise, relationships, and strong personal values. In This Episode: [00:00] Introduction [00:29] Meet commercial banker Matthew Heinrich [01:55] What banks want from land deals [03:34] Land loans, bridge financing, and timelines [05:47] Why communication keeps projects alive [09:00] Loan-to-value ratios and interest rates [11:49] From fitness coach to commercial banker [16:56] The unique world of church lending [19:46] Why Matthew joined Liberty Capital Bank [21:59] Inside Dallas Real Estate Ministries [25:19] Why local testimonies matter [26:26] Growing DREAM across North Texas [27:52] Fatherhood, faith, and leadership [31:06] DREAM's annual real estate gathering [32:16] McKinney's explosive growth story [36:44] Development keeps moving north [38:24] The future of North Texas real estate [43:06] Where to connect with Matthew [44:21] Closing thoughts Resources and Links Podcast Texas Land Guys Podcast https://dmre.com/ Matthew Heinrich LinkedIn:https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-e-heinrich Email (Banking): mheinrich@libertycapitalbank.com Email (DREAM): matthew@dallasrealestateministries.org DREAM Website: https://www.dallasrealestateministries.org/ Liberty Capital Bank: https://www.libertycapitalbank.com/ Tom Dosch https://www.linkedin.com/in/tom-dosch-37263b3b/ https://dmre.com/ https://ascentinv.com/ https://100xharvest.org/

    Episode 79: What Banks Really Want From Developers in 2026 with Matthew Heinrich
  6. Jun 30

    Episode 78: How AI Is Changing Texas Real Estate (And How We're Using It)

    In this episode of the Texas Land Guys Podcast, brothers Tom Dosch and Tim Dosch take a deep dive into the topic dominating every conversation in 2026: artificial intelligence. From how they're using it day-to-day in brokerage to the broader implications for real estate, the economy, and society, this episode covers the full landscape of where AI stands and where it's heading. The hosts share real examples from the field, including how Claude helped Tom decode a 30 page commercial contract in seconds, and how a first-time landowner used Gemini to spot a lopsided buyer offer before it cost them. But they're equally candid about AI's blind spots, from a model that rated Anna over Grand Prairie for multifamily investment based on future projections rather than today's market reality, to landowners who walk in convinced their site is worth 20 million dollars because an LLM told them so. The conversation also turns to the bigger picture: AI agents buying real estate, SpaceX data center satellites, the SpaceX and Anthropic IPOs, UBI funded by government equity stakes in AI companies, and the anti-AI backlash growing on college campuses and LinkedIn alike. Tom and Tim bring both enthusiasm and caution. The technology is extraordinary, but expertise, context, and relational knowledge still matter more than most social media posts will admit. Tune in for a grounded, real-world look at AI through the eyes of two land brokers who are using it every day and who know exactly where it falls short.

    Episode 78: How AI Is Changing Texas Real Estate (And How We're Using It)
  7. Jun 23

    Episode 77: What Happens When Capital Returns to Texas Real Estate? (Part Two)

    In this episode of the Texas Land Guys Podcast, Tim and Tom Dosch continue the conversation with David Marshall and Trey McGhin in part two of their deep dive into the state of Texas real estate. The group kicks things off discussing the new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, and what potential rate cuts later this year could mean for liquidity, recycled capital, and the wave of unsold deals developers are sitting on. The conversation dives into construction costs, with the team comparing historical cost bases on Houston high-rises and garden-style deals to today’s market, noting that while pricing has cooled in the short term thanks to compressed sub margins, it’s only a matter of time before costs climb again. Houston’s all-in construction costs continue to run 10–15% below Dallas, with garden-style product penciling in the $170–$190 per unit range.  Industrial remains the standout asset class across both markets, with equity chasing well-located sites along the Grand Parkway and into McKinney, even as developers push further out to fringe areas in search of supply. Data center development is generating buzz but few closed deals, slowed by long power-delivery timelines and growing public pushback. Meanwhile, single-family is working through an oversupply of lots, BTR remains largely stalled outside of a handful of larger sites, and land/lot banking continues to be a release valve for builders trying to manage balance sheet risk. The episode wraps on a lighter note as the group shares their summer plans with family, from Hawaii and Italy to Colorado road trips, before reflecting on the importance of stepping away from the deal grind to spend time with their kids. Tune in for the second half of this candid conversation on where Texas real estate stands today and where it's headed next. Key Takeaways Industrial is the clear winner. Equity is flowing to industrial projects across Texas. Developers are pushing to fringe areas. Core sites have become scarce. Construction costs are softening. Subcontractor margins are compressing. Houston garden-style costs ($170–$190/unit) are now 10–15% below Dallas. Single-family is stalled. Oversupply of lots and slow sales are hurting builders. Activity is limited to smaller infill sites. BTR is nearly dead. Poor performance has sidelined top developers. Data centers face power hurdles. Delayed delivery is killing most deals. Land banking is on the rise. Builders seek capital partners to offload land risk. In This Episode: [00:00] Introduction [00:31] Liquidity and rate cuts [02:00] Construction costs reality [04:02] Houston multifamily build costs [05:41] Industrial capital hotspot [08:24] Data centers and power [11:36] DFW industrial expansion [16:26] Single-family slowdown [18:36] Townhomes and zoning traps [21:12] Houston homebuilding outlook [22:55] Cities forcing bad zoning [24:05] Townhome exit strategies [24:22] Scottsdale rent reality check [24:59] Markets always turn [25:21] Build to rent slowdown [27:34] Why BTR math breaks [29:17] Summer plans and travel [34:18] Work stress and family time [37:59] Closing thoughts  Resources and Links Podcast Texas Land Guys Podcast https://dmre.com/ Trey McGhin linkedin.com/in/trey-mcghin-14926960 https://dmre.com/ https://ascentinv.com/ https://100xharvest.org/ David Marshall linkedin.com/in/david-marshall-91b3a2252 https://dmre.com/ https://ascentinv.com/ https://100xharvest.org/ Tom Dosch https://www.linkedin.com/in/tom-dosch-37263b3b/ https://dmre.com/ https://ascentinv.com/ https://100xharvest.org/ Tim Dosch https://www.linkedin.com/in/tim-dosch-67a07899 https://dmre.com/ https://ascentinv.com/ https://100xharvest.org/

    Episode 77: What Happens When Capital Returns to Texas Real Estate? (Part Two)
  8. Jun 16

    Episode 76: The Capital Freeze: What's Really Happening in Texas Real Estate

    In this episode of the Texas Land Guys Podcast, the hosts have a full house. Tom and Trey join from Dallas, while Tim and David call in from Houston. They kick things off by celebrating Trey's recent promotion to principal at DMRE and looking back on the early days of the Dallas office. The conversation dives into the challenges facing Texas multifamily development. Rents are softening even as new supply slows, a trend the team ties to inflation and job insecurity among young professionals. In Houston, infill activity is showing slight signs of life, but only in submarkets with real barriers to entry, like the 290 corridor. With land prices reaching $200 to $300 per square foot, high-rise projects remain nearly impossible to pencil out. Equity has become the industry's biggest obstacle. Developers are spending millions on pre-development costs with no guarantee of closing, and some are walking away from deals entirely. Creative financing, including LIHTC, HUD programs, and pref equity, is no longer optional. In Dallas, capital is flowing toward urban wrap projects, while suburban garden-style deals have slowed. Houston still leans suburban, though infill interest is slowly growing. Despite Texas leading the nation in population and job growth, tight equity and high construction costs continue to test even the most experienced developers. Tune in for an inside look at how Texas Land Guys are navigating today's market and finding creative ways to get deals done. Key Takeaways Equity is now the biggest obstacle to getting multifamily projects started. Many developers say this is the most difficult fundraising environment of their careers. Developers are spending $1 million to $2 million on plans and pre-development costs before they can even secure capital partners. Houston's infill apartment rents remain surprisingly soft despite limited new supply and very few project starts. Dallas still attracts significant multifamily interest, but developers are increasingly focused on highly urban locations or well-positioned suburban opportunities. Institutional equity groups have become extremely selective and often require projects to be nearly shovel-ready before making commitments. Affordable housing, tax credit projects, HUD financing, and public-private partnerships remain some of the most active areas of multifamily development. Developers are increasingly using preferred equity, co-GP structures, and creative financing solutions to complete projects. In This Episode: [00:00] Introduction [00:47] Trey becomes a principal [01:22] How the Dallas office started [02:23] Israel trip and team growth [06:19] Strong, interesting Houston submarkets [09:20] High-rise reality check [12:39] Heights and Washington rent declines [15:48] Why equity is so tight right now [19:31] Creative capital stack solutions [23:32] Institutions hold the leverage [25:11] Distressed land and market reality [26:26] What makes an infill deal work [27:47] Texas growth versus development challenges [29:22] Affordable housing and financing strategies [32:40] Houston remains focused on suburban development [35:13] The Energy Corridor land value correction [37:04] Why Grand Prairie remains a bright spot [43:32] Downtown Dallas faces new headwinds [45:02] Why equity funds pulled back [45:56] Final thoughts  Resources and Links Podcast Texas Land Guys Podcast https://dmre.com/ Trey McGhin linkedin.com/in/trey-mcghin-14926960 https://dmre.com/ https://ascentinv.com/ https://100xharvest.org/ David Marshall linkedin.com/in/david-marshall-91b3a2252 https://dmre.com/ https://ascentinv.com/ https://100xharvest.org/ Tom Dosch https://www.linkedin.com/in/tom-dosch-37263b3b/ https://dmre.com/ https://ascentinv.com/ https://100xharvest.org/ Tim Dosch https://www.linkedin.com/in/tim-dosch-67a07899 https://dmre.com/ https://ascentinv.com/ https://100xharvest.org/

    Episode 76: The Capital Freeze: What's Really Happening in Texas Real Estate
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About

The Dosch brothers share an insiders perspective on transacting the biggest commercial land deals shaping the Lone Star State. With decades of experience brokering deals between land owners and real estate developers they discuss the art of making these deals happen in a fast paced competitive market. With their partners, they have built the leading commercial land brokerage company in the State of Texas, covering the booming TX triangle, with offices in Houston, DFW and Austin/San Antonio. Through their podcast they bring you into the boardroom and inside the deals that move the market.

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