Markets, Mystics and Mayhem

Kiwibank

Join the Kiwibank Economists and the occasional special guest on this weekly series. We'll delve into data, decipher policy decisions, monitor the markets and analyse the issues impacting the Kiwi economy. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Alexandra Turcu, and Elliott Lowe. Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

  1. 6d ago

    Young labour force(d) to the back of the queue

    We have a labour market round-up this week. The unemployment rate was 5.6% for the June quarter. This lags behind the rest of the economy, so it's a reflection of where we were 6-9 months ago. That's before the strength we saw in January and February (and before the oil crisis). Youth are the shock absorbers that take the impact when the economy hits a bump. With a 17.2% unemployment rate for those aged 15 to 24, compared to 3.5% for those aged 35 to 44. Youth unemployment has always been elevated relative to older groups, but the current level is among the highest seen in 14 years. Overall, the picture feels bleak. Wages are not keeping up with prices (2% wage growth vs 4.1% inflation) and households are going backwards. But not all of NZ is feeling it the same way. Unemployment was 6% for the North Island compared to only 3.7% in the South Island. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Alexandra Turcu and Elliott Lowe. Follow our economic commentary & insights here. Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

  2. Aug 4

    Central banks holding. Confidence beefed up

    We take a look at an international central bank roundup. Three banks held their rates steady last week, more concerned about growth and demand destruction than inflation pressures. We agree, we'd like to see the same here. Back home we dive into confidence data. Although the oil crisis has given both households and businesses a headache, things appear to be recovering. Albeit slowly. We talk about some beefy topics most weeks... none more so than Kiwi beef exports and the surge in demand from the US. Just in time to save us from a drop-off in demand from China. Talk about good luck! Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Alexandra Turcu and Elliott Lowe. Follow our economic commentary & insights here. Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

  3. Jul 28

    Rainy day savings & price growth ravings

    The latest inflation data revealed some big, scary numbers. Inflation is running at 4.1%, the highest since 2023. Electricity, meat, and of course fuel prices were up sharply. However, domestic inflation finally eased, and the core measures of inflation that strip away volatile energy and food prices are a lot less frightening. Kiwi households continue to uphold good savings habits. Although the ever soaring cost of living continues to be the biggest barrier to household savings. Geopolitical uncertainty rages on and oil prices bounce around. Renewed conflict in the Strait of Hormuz is driving business and consumer uncertainty here in Aotearoa. One thing is certain, though, and that's Jarrod's plans to convert his home into a cattle farm. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Alexandra Turcu and Elliott Lowe. Follow our economic commentary & insights here https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/.   Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

  4. Jul 21

    Confidence up, spending down. What's going on?

    The NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows that domestic trading activity remains weak, but cost pressures are still pushing higher. Kiwi businesses are reaching the end of their buffers and higher prices may just follow. With positive net migration, we have more people arriving than leaving the country. But that's not true for Kiwi passport holders, most of whom are still heading off to Australia for better work opportunities. One bright spot for our economy is tourism. The May 2026 data printed higher than last year - so there's hope for a good winter season (if we can get any snow). Aussies were the most likely to pop over for a visit. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Alexandra Turcu and Elliott Lowe. Follow our economic commentary & insights here https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/. Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

  5. Jul 13

    Hiking interest rates: WHY?!

    The RBNZ has raised the interest rate to 2.5%. And we aren't happy. But we have a special guest on the podcast to help distract us from our foul mood. Mieneke Perniskie, Kiwibank Senior Dealer, Financial Markets joins us to discuss the implications for exchange rates. The Kiwi dollar has taken a battering this year, off the back of the oil crisis. The Kiwi-Aussie exchange rate in particular has made our exports go on sale. Good news for exporters! And we can see it in Manufacturing PMI. As the interest rates head to neutral (wherever that ends up landing), we speculate what the rest of the world is doing. And what that means for our rate differentials, and of course, currency. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Alexandra Turcu and Elliott Lowe. Follow our economic commentary & insights here. Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

  6. Jun 30

    Adaptation, Anticipation and Apprehension

    Oil prices have returned to pre-war levels. The market expects the price of Dubai crude to remain between $60-70 US/barrel through to the end of the decade. The rosier oil picture lowers medium term inflation risk and reinforces our call: hold the OCR and give the economy breathing room. Read more about our call in our mid-year outlook note. We're cautiously optimistic that AI will enhance New Zealand's productivity, rather than replacing our jobs as Economists. We remain keenly interested in its impact on crowding out, regulatory lag, and competition. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Alexandra Turcu and Elliott Lowe. Follow our economic commentary & insights here. Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

  7. Jun 23

    AI is booming and Oil is dooming

    We look back in time (one week) and so much has changed. We almost had a peace deal to celebrate. Oil prices dropped on hopes the deal would hold. As always, we speculate on the next move in markets, given the uncertain territory we have to navigate. The first quarter of the year and the GDP results which printed higher than expected. A stronger starting point for the year means that the demand destruction we've been feeling this quarter might set us back without completely derailing the Kiwi economy. Data points to the AI investment boom as a driver of growth domestically. We make many convincing arguments as to why we (economists) can't be replaced by AI (yet). None more salient than interpreting the future of oil distribution from the Middle East and its impact on where prices are going next. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here. Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

  8. Jun 16

    We talk interest rates, with a hawk

    The Reserve Bank’s official cash rate is meant to help keep the Kiwi economy stable. We talk about the optimal cash rate and make some calls with Kiwibank Rates Trader, Graham Hughes. International rates have an impact on the Kiwi through currency moves. Rates differentials between NZ and Aussie are no exception. A move higher in Kiwi rates at a time when the Aussies have finished hiking could drive moves the NZD/AUD cross. On one point we agree with a hawkish Graham, rate hikes will have to be part of the RBNZ story in the future. The question is how soon? And how high should rates go? Hosted by Jarrod Kerr and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here. Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

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Join the Kiwibank Economists and the occasional special guest on this weekly series. We'll delve into data, decipher policy decisions, monitor the markets and analyse the issues impacting the Kiwi economy. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Alexandra Turcu, and Elliott Lowe. Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

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