On The Markets

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Understanding the stock market and economy probably wasn’t on your bucket list when you were a kid, when you graduated high school or even today 😂.  And yet there it is, day after day, looming in the background and affecting real life events for you and your family, good and bad.  Why’d it go up?  When’s it going down?  Wait, is “the market” actually much bigger than just 500 US stocks?  It’s complicated.  And they make it complicated on purpose!  On The Markets gives context to complexity.  A stock market and economy show in plain English.  Hosted by Fermata Advisors co-founders Daren Blonski CFP® AIF®, Chris Sipes CFP ® AIF®, podcast host Dano Weir and more. The team shares the weekly economic, governmental and technical inputs that may be affecting the performance outputs in your portfolio, tax situation and more.  Powered by the brands of Fermata Advisors, including Sonoma Wealth, Fermata 401k and Fermata Tax, headquartered in Sonoma, California with offices across Northern California in Santa Rosa, San Rafael, Auburn and Chico.

  1. 21h ago

    The AI Buildout Just Got Repriced

    AI chip stocks experienced their fair share of volatility this week, despite how the week ended. Is this further rumblings of an AI selloff? Or something else entirely? Let's find out On The Markets. This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principal Daren Blonski CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir: • A bottom for small and mid caps? Why the rest of the market may actually start pulling it’s weight soon. • You heard the Mag 7 were “down”? Daren’s got the charts to show why AI chip stocks are actually just trading sideways. • Gold sits at a critical juncture, and Bitcoin needs to decide who it wants to be. Full video available on our YouTube Channel: https://youtu.be/MvepRvtChzs Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis?utm_source=spreaker&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=otm-2026-10-23 CHAPTERS 0:00 Intro: This Week's Topics 1:43 Mega Cap Concentration vs. Breadth 2:07 S&P 500 Trading Range 4:11 Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) 5:27 Russell 2000: A Possible Bottom? 6:39 Midterm Election Worries 7:28 Emerging Markets Double Top 8:12 Developed Markets 9:59 RSP vs. SPY Breadth Ratio 11:11 S&P 500 vs. Small Caps Ratio 11:50 Data Center Debt in Retirement Funds 12:57 AI IPOs: xAI, Anthropic and OpenAI 14:04 The Dot-Com S-Curve 15:50 Rockets and the Efficiency of Compute 17:02 OpenAI's 722 Math Problems 18:35 VIX Volatility 19:39 Tariff and COVID Volatility Spikes 20:42 MOVE Index: Bond Volatility 20:58 Iran and the OSINT Community 22:03 10-Year Treasury Yield 24:05 Was Inflation Already Priced In? 25:11 The Yield Curve 26:30 Oil at $103 a Barrel 27:10 Oil, Iran and the Midterms 29:44 Is Oil Pricing In a Larger Conflict? 30:42 Split Government as a Check on Power 31:24 OSINT and Executive Jets 32:19 Gold Near $4,000 32:41 Why Rebalancing Matters 33:28 Bitcoin Chart Patterns 34:22 Cyber Hacks and Quest Diagnostics 34:48 AI Tools in Financial Services 35:48 A Theory on AI Regulation 37:05 Automobiles, Railroads and AI 37:47 Horse and Buggy Adoption 39:37 Medical Advances and AI Optimism 41:55 Philip Morris on a Run 43:49 Getty Images Goes Bankrupt 45:08 Disrupt Yourself 46:09 Wrapping Up References: https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-street-futures-dip-after-ai-rout-telecoms-slide-2026-10-23/ https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/26/10/62556800/equal-weight-sp-500-rsp-spy-best-month-since-2009-rotation https://www.investopedia.com/stock-market-today-dow-jones-s-and-p-500-10232026-12189475 https://www.bessemertrust.com/insights/weekly-investment-update-10232026 https://investinglive.com/stocks/dow-leads-stocks-lower-small-caps-win-the-week/ https://ourfinancialsecurity.org/files/brace-for-impact-scherer-jenkins-omi-october2026-web https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/data-center-asset-backed-securities-are-latest-ai-pitch https://www.forbes.com/sites/chastity-murphy/2026/10/23/the-banks-behind-ai-are-protected-your-retirement-is-not/ https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/22/treasurys-bonds-ai-yields.html https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202610238213/10-year-treasury-yield-falls-to-4987-this-week-data-talk https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/23/oil-price-brent-wti-iran-war-saudi-arabia.html https://www.nationthailand.com/business/trading-investment/40072669 https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/weekly-wrap-bitcoin-under-pressure-211200361.html https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/21/getty-images-files-for-bankruptcy-advances-restructuring-plan.html https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/getty-images-says-investor-litigation-helped-push-it-bankruptcy-2026-10-22/ https://apnews.com/article/quest-cyber-breach-82dbe1fa6ba06cf6514bc16f73e64fe1

    The AI Buildout Just Got Repriced

  2. Oct 16

    Is the AI Bubble Being Tested? Debt, 5% Yields and the Rotation Out of Tech

    Tech stocks pulled back this week as investors questioned the debt funding the AI buildout, while the Dow gained 550 points Thursday as money rotated into other sectors. With the 10-year Treasury yield above 5% and September inflation at 3.7%, borrowing costs are now part of the AI story. This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Daren Blonski CFP®, Chris Sipes CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir: • You think your inflation is high at the grocery store? Why business inflation makes it look tame. • Are tariffs to blame? How is it possible that imports and exports are both spiking? • Is the AI market finally giving up the ghost? Or is this another speedbump on the way back to all-time highs? Daren’s got a chart that shows one view of the market actually had a good week. Full video available on our YouTube Channel: https://youtu.be/1cnaeqyMI_0 Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis?utm_source=spreaker&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=otm-2026-10-16 CHAPTERS 0:00 Intro: This Week's Topics 1:31 Tesla's Flying Car Stunt 3:59 Split vs. Unified Congress and Stocks 5:11 Sentiment: AAII, Fear and Greed, Bitcoin 7:01 September CPI at 3.7% 8:09 Business Inflation (PPI) at 6.3% 9:38 Import and Export Prices 11:00 Social Security's 3.6% COLA for 2027 12:22 Record Earnings Growth Expectations 13:26 Micron and Nvidia's Share of Q3 Earnings Growth 14:17 AI Build-Out Shifts From Cash Flow to Debt 14:58 CoreWeave and the Cost of Debt 16:08 Hurdle Rates and Cost of Capital 16:24 Starting Yields and Future Bond Returns 17:35 Fed Odds Ahead of the Midterms 18:08 Why Rate Hikes Don't Bite Like Before 19:50 Housing Supply at a 10-Year High 22:04 Home Prices and Zestimates 22:50 Slower Home Sales in Sonoma County 23:44 Technicals: S&P 500 Heat Map 25:48 Apple Amid the Rotation 26:22 S&P 500 Trading Range and Equal Weight 28:04 Russell 2000 Small Caps 29:21 Emerging Markets Double Top 30:19 Developed Markets 30:51 S&P 500 Stocks Above the 200-Day 32:01 10-Year Treasury Yield 32:22 The U.S. Dollar (DXY) 32:53 Oil Between $80 and $100 34:19 Gold 34:46 Bitcoin 35:37 Seasonality and the Midterms 36:13 Top-Performing Sectors of 2026 37:36 Energy, Oil and Inflation 37:58 Magnificent Seven and Tesla 38:56 Netflix's Sell-Off 41:45 FICO and AI Disruption 42:27 Getty Images and AI Disruption 43:41 Wrapping Up References: https://www.investopedia.com/stock-market-today-dow-jones-s-and-p-500-10152026-12174789 https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/coreweave-shares-bonds-slide-further-ai-debt-fears-mount-2026-10-15/ https://x.com/lanceroberts/status/2111059704667410612 https://x.com/mikezaccardi/status/2111049767958573059 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_10142026.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm https://x.com/byHeatherLong/status/2110718924224405588 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ximpim.nr0.htm https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202610163526/us-import-prices-rose-in-september https://www.ssa.gov/news/en/press/releases/2026-10-14.html https://x.com/charliebilello/status/2110864456762671360 https://x.com/charliebilello/status/2110196546348130753 https://x.com/ryandetrick/status/2110198650827850175 https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/10162026-existing-home-sales-nar-inventory-prices-appr https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales

    Is the AI Bubble Being Tested? Debt, 5% Yields and the Rotation Out of Tech

  3. Oct 9

    Bond Market After a Lost Decade: Lessons for Investors

    Bonds are historically known to be the safe part of your portfolio, but over the past decade they've seemed anything but. Looking at rolling 10-year returns, U.S. bonds are now in their worst stretch in more than 200 years of data. The good news is that yields are a lot higher now, which may set up a very different decade ahead for bond investors. This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principal Chris Sipes CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir: • A look at bonds’ lost decade, and how this stretch compares to every other decade going back to the 1930s. • What higher bond yields today could mean for investors who rely on their portfolio for income. • Stock valuations are close to their 1999 highs. What could the pattern of bonds be telling us about other asset classes? Full video available on our YouTube Channel: https://youtu.be/tc29n1F2A0I Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis CHAPTERS 0:00 Intro: This Week's Topics 1:47 Lifetime Taxes by State 3:21 Join the Live Stream 3:54 Sentiment: AAII, Fear and Greed, Bitcoin 5:10 Investors Flowing Into Bond Funds 5:40 Nominal vs. Real Bond Yields 7:34 Yield and Duration as Return Expectations 8:49 What Is a Lost Decade? 9:29 Developed vs. Emerging Market Yields 10:28 10-Year Treasury Returns by Decade 11:29 Bianco: Bond Returns Back to 1793 12:14 The 1870s Railroad Boom 14:54 Do Coupons Count in a Lost Decade? 15:31 How Coupons Cushion Rising Rates 16:47 Growth and the ISM Services PMI 17:20 Equity Issuance vs. Buybacks 18:05 AI Capex Concentration 18:55 Total U.S. Debt vs. GDP 20:28 The Shiller CAPE Ratio 22:23 Three Lost Decades in Stocks 25:01 Valuations and Sequence Risk 25:55 CAPE and Subsequent Returns 27:03 Could You Withstand a Lost Decade? 28:38 Why Market Timing Signals Fail 29:29 Sector Drawdowns Since Jackson Hole 31:28 Dynamic Pricing in Grocery Stores 33:10 Maryland's New Grocery Pricing Law 34:08 A DJ Set at the NYSE 35:02 It's All Money: Social Security Timing 35:57 Technicals: S&P 500 36:41 Russell 2000 Small Caps 37:12 Developed and Emerging Markets 38:25 Bond Market Technicals: AGG 39:16 Long-Term Bonds: TLT 39:53 Gold Treading Water 40:49 Bitcoin's Golden Cross 41:50 10-Year and 30-Year Treasury Trends 43:13 So, Did Bonds Hit a Bottom? 43:39 Wrapping Up References: https://x.com/charliebilello/status/2107157376252133696 https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/2096729819472138571 https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/2096729823154434228 https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/mi-guide-to-the-markets-us.pdf https://www.finra.org/investors/insights/bonds-interest-rate-changes-duration https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/news-publications/inside-supply-management-magazine/blog/2026/2026-10/ism-pmi-reports-roundup-september-2026-services/ https://x.com/jasonfurman https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/2106373679311618528 https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/table/by-month https://ria.disciplinefunds.com/2025/12/31/the-financial-planners-2026-outlook/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-how-much-youll-pay-in-taxes-in-your-life/ https://www.cbsnews.com/baltimore/news/maryland-law-prevent-dynamic-grocery-pricing/

    Bond Market After a Lost Decade: Lessons for Investors

  4. Oct 2

    The Jobs Report Was Bad. Stocks Rose. Here's the Catch.

    The September jobs report came in well short of expectations, and stocks rose anyway. On The Markets this week looks at why a weaker payroll print pushed the odds of an October Fed hike lower, and why that still leaves mortgages above 7% and the 10-year near 5.2%. This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Daren Blonski CFP®, Chris Sipes CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir: • Market was flat for the week? Don’t look under the hood... • Worried about a divided house, senate and executive branch? How have markets performed historically during periods of divided government? Full video available on our YouTube Channel: https://youtu.be/NRy6VpHN2b4 Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis CHAPTERS 0:00 Intro: This Week's Topics 1:42 AI Thumbnails and the Algorithm 3:15 Midterms: S&P 500 Returns After Elections 5:23 Divided Government and Annual Returns 6:33 Sentiment: AAII, Fear and Greed, Bitcoin 7:26 Treasury Rates: The Story of the Year 9:09 Rates as a Hurdle Rate 9:48 Inflation Sensitivity and 2022 Returns 11:24 Growth and Inflation Regimes 13:42 Bonds, 2008 and Deflation 14:20 Starbucks Closures and 2008 Echoes 15:10 Recency Bias and Market Timing 17:00 75% of S&P 500 Stocks Down in September 17:22 Real Estate Affordability 19:02 A Beckett Real Estate Market 19:37 The Wealth Effect 20:24 Equal Weight vs. Cap Weight S&P 500 21:57 Equal Weight's Weekly Losing Streak 22:29 Bilello on the Bond Market Drawdown 24:08 Bonds vs. European Stocks 25:33 Household Wealth Led by Equities 26:16 Average Up Year vs. Average Down Year 27:16 The U.S. Equity Risk Premium 28:58 Why Rates Are Rising: Deficits 30:02 AI Hyperscaler Borrowing 30:29 Does Presidential Style Move Bonds? 32:11 Chris on Bonds as Loans 33:26 Oil and the 10-Year Treasury 34:03 Nominal GDP Growth 34:31 PCE Inflation 35:25 Unemployment Rate at 4.2% 36:17 Unemployment Below 5%: Historical Context 37:33 Do the Jobs Numbers Add Up? 39:13 Why Stocks Rose on a Weak Jobs Report 40:53 Technicals: S&P 500 Heat Map 41:39 Big Tech Supporting the Index 43:02 RSP vs. SPY: Market Breadth 43:41 Small Caps: IWM vs. SPY 44:34 Emerging and Developed Markets 45:22 Stocks Above the 50-Day Average 46:03 Stocks Above the 200-Day Average 47:01 VIX and MOVE Volatility Check 47:41 High-Yield Debt Appetite 48:22 Discretionary vs. Staples 49:45 The 2-Year, 10-Year and Mortgages 50:57 Daren on Oil's $80 to $100 Range 51:51 Gold Near $4,000 52:06 Bitcoin Chart Check 52:46 Daren's Base Case for Year-End 53:21 Jobless Claims and Personal Income 53:43 30-Year Mortgage Rates Near 7.2% 54:51 Chart Check: Tractor Supply 56:30 The COVID Homesteading Boom 58:49 Chart Check: FICO and AI Disruption 1:00:13 Disney and Customer Experience 1:00:49 Peter Lynch: Buy What You Know 1:01:43 Falling in Love With a Stock 1:03:27 Wrapping Up References: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm h ttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/jobs-report-september-2026.html https://schwabnetwork.com/articles/closing-bell-stocks-rally-as-weak-jobs-report-cuts-fed-hike-odds https://x.com/mikezaccardi/status/2104539369046442130 https://x.com/mikezaccardi/status/2104537608596475916 https://x.com/barchart/status/2105412942531338290 https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2105400135970631839 https://x.com/Barchart/status/2105449669639762041 https://x.com/charliebilello/status/2105299184756650273 https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61984 https://x.com/barchart/status/2104841143699530044 https://x.com/rbadvisors/status/2105290749390790678 https://ycharts.com https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-august-2026 https://x.com/charliebilello/status/2106041060354924917 https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mortgage-rates-average-728

    The Jobs Report Was Bad. Stocks Rose. Here's the Catch.

  5. Sep 25

    Why Are Bond Yields Rising to the Highest Level Since 2004

    The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.48 percent on September 24, the highest since 2004, with the 10-year near 5.21 percent and the 2-year at 4.93 percent. This week on On The Markets we explain why bond yields are rising after the September 16 hike, and what that move means for mortgage rates, stocks, and borrowing costs. This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Daren Blonski CFP®, Chris Sipes CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir: • Why are AI competitors all asking for a slowdown all of a sudden? • China came to DC...what could that mean for the bond market? • Why the key with the bond market is not where it goes, it’s how fast. Is this structural decline? Or just the September Daren predicted might be coming? Full video available on our YouTube Channel: https://youtu.be/2k8Y0hvrOIM Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis CHAPTERS 0:00 Intro: This Week's Topics 0:52 Show Open 1:23 AI Thumbnails and the Show's History 2:28 Meme: The Dark Knight Rises and the Bond Market 4:01 Can Treasury Control the Long End? 5:46 AI Leaders at the UN Security Council 7:10 Regulation, Moats and Low-Cost Chinese Models 9:10 Suspect Timing and the IPO Question 10:54 U.S. Data Center Capacity vs. the World 12:44 Data Centers, Power Draw and Affordability 14:05 The Mag 7 Are Driving the Market 14:52 Data Center Debt and Rising Rates 15:37 Why Higher Yields Can Pull Money From Stocks 16:36 Nasdaq Moves Toward 23-Hour Trading 19:19 Xi Visits DC: Chinese Banks and Treasuries 22:23 AP: Diplomats Told to Say "Super Intelligence" 22:52 It's All Money: A Deep Dive on Bonds 23:31 Technicals: The S&P 500 Bull Flag 25:10 The Weekly Close and the Qs 25:55 Mega Caps vs. the Utility Sector 27:06 Paul Harvey and the Rest of the Story 27:39 RSP: The Equal-Weight S&P 500 28:46 IWM: Small Caps and a Weekly Double Top 30:22 Midterm-Year Seasonality 31:23 Breadth: A Look Under the Hood 32:43 TIPS, the VIX and the MOVE Index 34:06 The 2-Year and 10-Year: Why Speed Matters 35:16 Mortgage Rates Top 7% 36:17 AI and the S-Curve 36:51 From Radio to the Internet 37:50 Dollar Index 38:14 Gold 39:15 Bitcoin 40:00 Humble Pie: Meta and Muse 41:16 Meta's New Glasses 42:06 Muse, Marketplace and Financial Services 44:16 Meta's One-Week Rebound 45:24 The Puke Point and Trend Reversals 46:42 TLT and Diversification 47:50 Schwab Sells Off on AI Competition Fears 48:20 Wrapping Up 48:52 Closing and Sign-Off References: https://www.reuters.com/business/us-30-year-bond-yield-rises-highest-since-2004-selloff-deepens-2026-09-24/ https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/24/us-treasury-yields-bonds-fed-inflation.html https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20260916a1.pdf https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mortgage-rates-average-703 https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/whats-move-index-and-why-it-might-matter https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-25/treasury-volatility-set-for-biggest-jump-in-year-as-bonds-churn https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/23/altman-amodei-un-ai-safety.html https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20260923-ai-leaders-urge-caution-at-un-with-anthropic-chief-pledging-to-slow-down https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-welcomes-xi-washington-looking-trade-win-2026-09-24/ https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2026/09/04/chinese-banks-turn-to-us-treasuries-after-raising-dollar-deposit-rates-sources-say https://www.nasdaq.com/docs/nasdaq-global-trading-hours-faqs https://apnews.com/article/trump-super-intelligence-rebrand-ai-diplomats-02123c7bf18c692a12b2b3e3b9ce30c5 https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/metas-muse-lights-another-fire-under-the-ai-trade-22092026 https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-street-expects-metas-ai-agent-shape-into-new-revenue-engine-2026-09-22/

    Why Are Bond Yields Rising to the Highest Level Since 2004

  6. Sep 18

    The Fed Just Raised Rates. Here's What Changes for Your Money.

    This week the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent on September 16, its first hike in over three years. On this episode of On The Markets, we break down why that move is making borrowing more expensive for mortgages, credit cards, and business loans. We will unpack what the Fed is signaling on inflation and what it means for your wallet and portfolio. This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Daren Blonski CFP®, Chris Sipes CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir: • Rates are going up. How did the treasury market react? • Do treasuries even matter? Why American households are more overweight in another asset class more than ever before. • Conventional wisdom says rates up-market down...then why does Daren say “September’s alright so far”? Full video available on our YouTube Channel: https://youtu.be/cJNkIYWFQXM Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis CHAPTERS 0:00 Intro: This Week's Topics 0:41 Show Open 1:22 Was the Hike Already Priced In? 2:05 A 12-0 Vote: Did Warsh Have a Choice? 2:46 Warren Buffett Steps Down as Berkshire Chairman 5:32 Vibes: A Diversified "Bond" Portfolio 6:14 Fed Credibility and Independence 7:40 Politics and Expectations for the Fed 9:46 First Unanimous Fed Decision in Years 10:27 The 2-Year Treasury vs. the Fed Funds Rate 11:52 Should It Have Been 50 Basis Points? 13:15 The K-Shaped Economy and Boomer Spending 13:59 Jim Bianco on Oil and Inflation 16:00 Households at a Record Equity Allocation 16:42 TINA: There Is No Alternative 17:23 Energy: Costco, Saudi Oil and the SPR 19:29 Sentiment: AAII Bears at a 52-Week High 20:53 Canada's Counter-Tariffs by State 21:35 The Shrinking Equity Risk Premium 23:00 China's Treasury Holdings at 2008 Lows 23:43 Central Banks Shift Toward Gold 24:25 Pensions and Endowments Leave Fixed Income 25:07 Recency Bias in Asset Allocation 25:51 When an Asset Class Is Left for Dead 27:55 Importing More Inflation Than the Pandemic 28:35 Lessons From 1873: When Bonds Shine 29:58 Price-Sensitive vs. Price-Insensitive Buyers 30:42 Real Median Household Income Hits a Record 31:23 AI CapEx: The Hyperscaler Build-Out 32:50 Vibes: Dreamforce and the 49ers 36:21 Technicals: S&P 500 Decision Zone 40:34 The Qs: Large-Cap Tech Holds the Market 41:14 Seasonality and Annual Fractals 42:40 Betting Markets: Midterm Odds 44:02 Rates Up, Liquidity Still Loose 46:07 Rates vs. Liquidity Explained 49:38 The End of the Dot Plot 50:59 Market Breadth: RSP, IWM and Participation 54:26 Stocks Above the 200-Day Moving Average 55:10 VIX and MOVE Volatility Check 56:37 Gold and Bitcoin Levels to Watch 57:59 Mortgage Rates and the Housing Market 59:21 Chart Check: Salesforce 1:01:39 Wrapping Up References: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20260916a1.pdf https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20260916.pdf https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-excluding-food-and-energy https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/ https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2026/income-poverty-health-insurance-coverage.html https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey https://ycharts.com https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/18/buffett-stepping-down-as-berkshire-chairman.html https://x.com/rbadvisors/status/2100208328940957953

    The Fed Just Raised Rates. Here's What Changes for Your Money.

  7. Sep 11

    Why Treasury Buybacks Are Not Lowering Bond Yields

    Secretary Bessent tripled long-end buybacks to push yields down, but the 10-year is holding near 4.95% and the 30-year hit 5.27% as inflation expectations repriced on tariffs and energy. Interest is growing among investors around why intervention is not working and what higher yields mean for borrowing and investing. This week on On The Markets we break down how buybacks work, why the market is pushing back, and what that may indicate about next week's Fed meeting. This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Daren Blonski CFP®, Chris Sipes CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir: • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declares “I am the house now” • S and P still near all-time highs? Then why is consumer sentiment at an all time low? • Nvidia just had “record earnings”? What about the half-trillion that didn't make it to the balance sheet? We look at the “off book” commitments of the hyperscalers. Full video available on our YouTube Channel: https://youtu.be/KF3zZBUi3ZI Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis CHAPTERS 0:00 Intro: This Week's Topics 1:37 Welcome & Remembering 9/11 (25th Anniversary) 6:46 Bessent: "I Am the House Now" (Treasury/Yen Clip) 11:43 Treasury Buybacks Explained ($2B to $6B) 14:42 AI CapEx, OpenAI's Comeback & AI Safety Fears 18:03 Global Trade Balances & Tariff Deficit Map 20:35 Sentiment Check: AAII, Fear & Greed, Bitcoin 21:36 Consumer Sentiment vs. Top 10% Spending Power 24:47 Hot PPI/CPI Data Fuels Rate Hike Bets 29:03 Hyperscalers' $3 Trillion AI Borrowing Binge 32:11 Market Flips From Pricing Cuts to Pricing Hikes 34:04 Housing Market Craters: Sales & Starts Collapse 36:17 Housing Affordability Crisis 38:03 Bond Market Duration Risk by Scenario 39:37 Why Isn't the Market Buying the Buybacks? 42:26 Vibes Segment: Nintendo's Tariff Refund Sale 43:36 Global Liquidity Tracker & the Saudi Pipeline Attack 46:03 S&P 500 Technical Analysis 47:51 VIX Volatility Check 49:05 Oil, Ceasefire Odds & the Houthi Pipeline Strike 51:48 Magnificent Seven & the AI Bubble Debate 53:56 Hidden AI Exposure in the S&P 500 Heat Map 56:02 Gold & Silver Technical Charts 59:36 30-Year Treasury & Housing Affordability Revisited 1:01:01 Bitcoin Chart Check 1:01:33 Apple's Foldable Phone & New Hardware-Focused CEO 1:05:17 SpaceX Breakout & Grok AI Agents 1:06:09 Dollar Index & Weekly Market Wrap 1:06:46 Nike, Peloton & Disney: A Warning for AI Valuations 1:10:16 Closing Thoughts & Sign-Off References: https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/edgy-bond-investors-unconsoled-by-bessents-big-buyback-2026-09-10/ https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/20/bessents-efforts-in-the-treasury-market-so-far-havent-worked-heres-what-else-he-can-try.html https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/20/treasury-bond-buybacks-long-term-yields.html https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/mortgages/article/why-treasurys-6-billion-bond-buyback-didnt-lower-mortgage-rates-174923069.html https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/ https://ycharts.com

    Why Treasury Buybacks Are Not Lowering Bond Yields

  8. Sep 4

    Why Mortgage Rates Are Rising While the Fed Holds Steady

    Mortgage rates are pushing toward 7% at 6.83% on the 30-year while the Fed held its benchmark at 3.50% to 3.75% and the 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.3%. This week on On The Markets we explain why mortgage rates follow the long end of the curve and not the Fed funds rate and what doubled Treasury buybacks signal for bonds, borrowing costs and the $40 trillion debt backdrop. This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Daren Blonski CFP®, Chris Sipes CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir: • Are mortgages basing to go higher? Or are they starting a distribution pattern and heading lower? Daren's got the charts and his take on the situation. • Why rates likely won’t come down despite the 2nd best jobs report of the year. • The impact rates have had on bonds, a traditional inflation hedge. • If you listened to the headlines this week, you probably thought he market dipped, but in fact it didn't. Let's find out why. Full video available on our YouTube Channel: https://youtu.be/w-MFbHfFHIY Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis CHAPTERS 0:00 Intro 3:40 Investor sentiment this week 4:11 Big number on the Jobs Report 7:11 Net interest will exceed key programs in 2036 10:55 Where did the jobs come from? 13:20 Service PMI is expansionary 14:46 Data centers outpacing all other private construction 16:20 Hyperscaler debt has doubled in nine months 17:55 Credit markets not showing signs of stress 19:16 Rates lower no matter what? 20:24 Inflation pressure broadens 22:55 Gas price increases since Iran War 25:50 Bonds have lost their hedge against inflation 27:14 Bond drawdowns are far smaller than in 2022 28:00 Rolling 10-year returns stocks vs bonds 28:20 Gold and stocks correlation finally separating 30:44 10-year treasury 31:10 Mortgage rates...dropping? 32:58 Oil this week 36:45 Gold recovered, silver may have survived 37:32 Bitcoin standing pat after a jump 38:00 Ethereum set to break out? 39:00 S&P 500 actually beat last week, equally weighted a different story 40:25 Agg bond market getting worn out? 42:15 Volatility really low References: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/which-impacts-mortgage-rates-more-the-fed-or-10-year-treasury-yield-experts-weigh-in/ https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mortgage-rates-average-671 https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202609 https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/services-pmi-at-55-4-august-2026-ism-services-pmi-report-302868046.html https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-54-6-august-2026-ism-manufacturing-pmi-report-302865127.html https://www.cbo.gov/publication/62105 https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey https://ycharts.com

    Why Mortgage Rates Are Rising While the Fed Holds Steady
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About

Understanding the stock market and economy probably wasn’t on your bucket list when you were a kid, when you graduated high school or even today 😂.  And yet there it is, day after day, looming in the background and affecting real life events for you and your family, good and bad.  Why’d it go up?  When’s it going down?  Wait, is “the market” actually much bigger than just 500 US stocks?  It’s complicated.  And they make it complicated on purpose!  On The Markets gives context to complexity.  A stock market and economy show in plain English.  Hosted by Fermata Advisors co-founders Daren Blonski CFP® AIF®, Chris Sipes CFP ® AIF®, podcast host Dano Weir and more. The team shares the weekly economic, governmental and technical inputs that may be affecting the performance outputs in your portfolio, tax situation and more.  Powered by the brands of Fermata Advisors, including Sonoma Wealth, Fermata 401k and Fermata Tax, headquartered in Sonoma, California with offices across Northern California in Santa Rosa, San Rafael, Auburn and Chico.

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  • Channel
    707 Media
  • Creator
    707 Media
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    105
  • Rating
    Clean
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    © 707 Media, Fermata Advisors
  • Show Website
    On The Markets

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