Deep Values: Value Investing Deep Dives

DeepValues
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Value investing and stock analysis, Buffett-style. Each episode audits one company or market story: intrinsic value, discounted cash flow, margin of safety, moats and balance-sheet risk, ending with a clear Bullish, Neutral or Bearish stance. From Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst at deepvalues.ai. Open-source research on 300+ companies at research.deepvalues.ai; the DeepValues app for iPhone and Android values any stock. Video: YouTube @TheDeepValues. Chinese edition: 深度价值. Also on Apple Podcasts. Educational content, not investment advice.

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  1. 7h ago

    Anthropic's $2T IPO Needs $1T in Yearly Revenue

    Aswath Damodaran's model puts Anthropic's intrinsic value near $1.5 trillion, while IPO talk runs as high as $2 trillion. Through a Graham-Buffett lens, we test the $1 trillion revenue and 9.74% cost of capital assumptions behind that gap, and what margin of safety means for frontier AI. • Free DeepValues app, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock: iPhone https://apps.apple.com/us/app/deepvalues/id6775568608 · Android https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=app.deepvalues.android&referrer=utm_source%3Dspotify%26utm_medium%3Ddescription%26utm_campaign%3Dcompany Chapters (0:00) Value in the AI Era (4:08) Redefining the Tech Moat (6:57) Path to $1 Trillion Revenue (7:59) Key Financial Inputs (9:43) Capital Allocation and Compute (13:42) The Cost of Capital Delusion (15:47) Historical Market Returns (16:25) Capital Allocation and Compute (17:23) Redefining the Tech Moat (18:43) Governance and Regulation Risks (19:59) Redefining the Tech Moat (21:39) Governance and Regulation Risks (22:39) Margin of Safety Trap (25:33) Surviving Uncertainty (27:15) The Cost of Capital Delusion (28:35) Historical Market Returns (30:25) Implied Market Returns (31:43) P/E Paradox (33:48) Hurdle Rate Trap (37:12) The Cost of Capital Delusion (40:40) Verdict for Long-Term Investors (44:13) Intelligent Value Investing Tools (44:39) Get the free apps Full open-source research report: https://research.deepvalues.ai/insights/2026-11-03-anthropic-valuation-feedback-loop/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=company&utm_content=why_anthropic_s_ipo_is_overvalued_2 DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free: https://app.deepvalues.ai/?ref=podcast&src=why_anthropic_s_ipo_is_overvalued_2-en • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed): https://app.deepvalues.ai/letter?src=spotify&ref=why_anthropic_s_ipo_is_overvalued_2 • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS): https://apps.apple.com/us/app/buffett-indicator/id6747404614 • The same market gauge on Android, Bubble Watch: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.luluventures.bubblewatch.android&referrer=utm_source%3Dspotify%26utm_medium%3Ddescription%26utm_campaign%3Dcompany • Open-source research on 300+ companies: https://research.deepvalues.ai/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=company&utm_content=why_anthropic_s_ipo_is_overvalued_2

    Anthropic's $2T IPO Needs $1T in Yearly Revenue

  2. 8h ago

    Why Midterms Can't Save a Market at 40x Earnings

    Elections change Washington's brakes, not the earnings engine under your stocks. With the Shiller P/E near 41 the day after the midterms, we show why valuation, not who wins, decides your margin of safety. • Free DeepValues app, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock: iPhone https://apps.apple.com/us/app/deepvalues/id6775568608 · Android https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=app.deepvalues.android&referrer=utm_source%3Dspotify%26utm_medium%3Ddescription%26utm_campaign%3Dmarket Chapters (0:00) Stock Market Snapshot (4:07) Elections Change the Brakes (5:10) High Cost of Holding the Brakes (5:58) Case Study: Richest Man Donor (7:00) Mechanics of Gridlock (9:27) High Cost of Holding the Brakes (11:14) Case Study: Richest Man Donor (14:01) Wall Street's Conflicting Playbooks (16:05) Post-Midterm Win Rate (16:46) Mechanics of Gridlock (20:10) Post-Midterm Win Rate (22:15) AI Reality Check (22:57) Risks: Market Priced for Perfection (25:27) Real Macro Drivers (27:31) 2018 Parallel: Politics Masked Macro (29:16) AI Reality Check (36:36) Sector Impacts (43:23) Real Macro Drivers (44:41) Master Your Margin of Safety (45:30) Get the free apps DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free: https://app.deepvalues.ai/?ref=podcast&src=why_midterms_won_t_save_overvalued_markets-en • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed): https://app.deepvalues.ai/letter?src=spotify&ref=why_midterms_won_t_save_overvalued_marke • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS): https://apps.apple.com/us/app/buffett-indicator/id6747404614 • The same market gauge on Android, Bubble Watch: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.luluventures.bubblewatch.android&referrer=utm_source%3Dspotify%26utm_medium%3Ddescription%26utm_campaign%3Dmarket • Open-source research on 300+ companies: https://research.deepvalues.ai/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=market&utm_content=why_midterms_won_t_save_overvalued_marke • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst: https://deepvalues.ai/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=market&utm_content=why_midterms_won_t_save_overvalued_marke

    Why Midterms Can't Save a Market at 40x Earnings

  3. 14h ago

    Binance Lost $6.3B to a Fake Zoom Call and 50 Lines of Code

    A fake HR recruiter on Zoom and 50 lines of valid code let attackers drain $6.34B from Binance without cracking a single key. For investors, it shows how operational fragility can empty even a strong moat in hours. • Free DeepValues app, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock: iPhone https://apps.apple.com/us/app/deepvalues/id6775568608 · Android https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=app.deepvalues.android&referrer=utm_source%3Dspotify%26utm_medium%3Ddescription%26utm_campaign%3Dcompany Chapters (0:00) Binance Breach Autopsy (3:23) Takeaway for Long-Term Investors (4:05) AI System as Lateral Bridge (6:07) DPRK TraderTraitor Operation (7:50) Takeaway for Long-Term Investors (8:31) DPRK TraderTraitor Operation (10:09) AI System as Lateral Bridge (10:51) Permissions for Catastrophic Control (13:37) AI Threat Model Shift (16:17) AI System as Lateral Bridge (17:45) AI Threat Model Shift (18:28) Permissions for Catastrophic Control (21:09) Largest Digital Theft on Record (21:49) EIP-7702 Exploit Mechanics (28:44) MPC Vulnerability Matrix (30:43) EIP-7702 Exploit Mechanics (31:59) Aftermath and Liquidity Stress Test (35:05) AI Threat Model Shift (36:50) Aftermath and Liquidity Stress Test (37:51) AI Threat Model Shift (38:33) Aftermath and Liquidity Stress Test (41:02) Takeaway for Long-Term Investors (42:46) AI Threat Model Shift (44:46) Intelligent Value Investor Apps (44:56) Get the free apps Full open-source research report: https://research.deepvalues.ai/insights/2026-11-03-the-binance-breach-anatomy-of-a-crypto-heist/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=company&utm_content=how_fake_zoom_calls_drained_binance DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free: https://app.deepvalues.ai/?ref=podcast&src=how_fake_zoom_calls_drained_binance-en • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed): https://app.deepvalues.ai/letter?src=spotify&ref=how_fake_zoom_calls_drained_binance • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS): https://apps.apple.com/us/app/buffett-indicator/id6747404614 • The same market gauge on Android, Bubble Watch: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.luluventures.bubblewatch.android&referrer=utm_source%3Dspotify%26utm_medium%3Ddescription%26utm_campaign%3Dcompany

    Binance Lost $6.3B to a Fake Zoom Call and 50 Lines of Code

  4. 14h ago

    Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) — AMD's 97% AI Surge Hides a $3B Inventory Pile

    Deep value research on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) as of 2026-11-03: +$3.0B inventory added in Q3. AMD's data center revenue nearly doubled to a record $8.5B, yet a $3B inventory build and rising receivables absorbed the cash while dilution quietly grew. We trace what owners actually kept before the 10-Q lands, because headline EPS hides it. • Free DeepValues app, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock: iPhone https://apps.apple.com/us/app/deepvalues/id6775568608 · Android https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=app.deepvalues.android&referrer=utm_source%3Dspotify%26utm_medium%3Ddescription%26utm_campaign%3Dcompany Chapters (0:00) AMD Q3 2026 Data Center Revenue (1:16) Net Income to Owner Earnings (5:59) Management Adjustments Analysis (8:02) Capital Efficiency and Margins (8:42) Balance Sheet Expansion for 2027 (9:27) Capital Efficiency and Margins (10:31) Management Adjustments Analysis (14:00) Moat Trajectory in Data Center (16:25) Management Adjustments Analysis (18:26) Net Income to Owner Earnings (19:46) Management Adjustments Analysis (21:08) Moat Trajectory in Data Center (22:27) Filing Status Notice (24:37) AMD Q3 2026 Data Center Revenue (32:47) Moat Trajectory in Data Center (33:47) Balance Sheet Expansion for 2027 (36:14) Final Verdict on Valuation (44:11) Get the free apps Full open-source research report: https://research.deepvalues.ai/insights/2026-11-03-advanced-micro-devices-q3-2026-earnings-financial-research/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=company&utm_content=amd DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free: https://app.deepvalues.ai/?ref=podcast&src=the_hidden_cost_of_amd_ai_growth-en • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed): https://app.deepvalues.ai/letter?src=spotify&ref=amd • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS): https://apps.apple.com/us/app/buffett-indicator/id6747404614 • The same market gauge on Android, Bubble Watch: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.luluventures.bubblewatch.android&referrer=utm_source%3Dspotify%26utm_medium%3Ddescription%26utm_campaign%3Dcompany • Open-source research on 300+ companies: https://research.deepvalues.ai/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=company&utm_content=amd • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst: https://deepvalues.ai/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=company&utm_content=amd

    Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) — AMD's 97% AI Surge Hides a $3B Inventory Pile

  5. 15h ago

    Amgen (AMGN) — Bearish? Amgen: $54B Debt, Flat Owner Earnings, a MariTide Bet

    Bearish on Amgen (AMGN) as of 2026-11-03: $54B total debt load. Amgen's $461 share price implies roughly 17% yearly growth, yet its owner earnings have barely moved in a decade. With Q3 just out, we trace how $54 billion of debt, fading blockbusters and the MariTide obesity bet fit together. • Free DeepValues app, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock: iPhone https://apps.apple.com/us/app/deepvalues/id6775568608 · Android https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=app.deepvalues.android&referrer=utm_source%3Dspotify%26utm_medium%3Ddescription%26utm_campaign%3Dcompany Chapters (0:00) Amgen (AMGN) (3:55) The Non-GAAP Wedge: Q3 2026 Operating Margin (7:57) THE OWINER EARNINGS BRIDGE (Q3 2026, $ (11:39) VERDICT (14:21) Return on Capital vs. Cost of Capital (16:06) What Would Make This Thesis wrong? (20:25) The Footnote Ledger: Intangibles & (22:24) The Footnote Ledger: Debt & Working Capital (25:10) Balance Sheet & Covenants (As of Sept 30 (28:31) Capital Allocation & Management Candour (31:00) The Footnote Ledger: Intangibles & (33:01) The Footnote Ledger: Debt & Working Capital (34:19) Balance Sheet & Covenants (As of Sept 30 (34:59) Valuation Il DCF & Margin of Safety (35:39) owner earnings for the next 5 (41:41) What Would Make This Thesis wrong? (43:01) VERDICT: OVERVALUED (43:18) Get the free apps Full open-source research report: https://research.deepvalues.ai/insights/2026-11-03-amgen-q3-2026-earnings-financial-research/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=company&utm_content=amgn DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free: https://app.deepvalues.ai/?ref=podcast&src=amgen_s_54_billion_debt_and_maritide_gamble-en • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed): https://app.deepvalues.ai/letter?src=spotify&ref=amgn • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS): https://apps.apple.com/us/app/buffett-indicator/id6747404614 • The same market gauge on Android, Bubble Watch: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.luluventures.bubblewatch.android&referrer=utm_source%3Dspotify%26utm_medium%3Ddescription%26utm_campaign%3Dcompany • Open-source research on 300+ companies: https://research.deepvalues.ai/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=company&utm_content=amgn

    Amgen (AMGN) — Bearish? Amgen: $54B Debt, Flat Owner Earnings, a MariTide Bet

  6. 16h ago

    Nick Train Cut Thermo Fisher 24%: Priced Too High? | Investor Playbook

    In Q3 2026 Nick Train cut his Thermo Fisher stake by 24%, while our worksheet shows the stock at a -130.6% margin of safety. Find out why even one of the most patient investors trims a great business when its price runs far ahead of its value. • Free DeepValues app, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock: iPhone https://apps.apple.com/us/app/deepvalues/id6775568608 · Android https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=app.deepvalues.android&referrer=utm_source%3Dspotify%26utm_medium%3Ddescription%26utm_campaign%3Dinvestor Chapters (0:00) Q3 2026 13F Deep Review (4:46) Nick Train Portfolio Overview (6:08) Valuation: Thermo Fisher (7:05) Valuation: Walt Disney (8:01) Behavioral Analysis (10:43) Portfolio Size and Concentration (11:45) Top 10 US Holdings (14:05) Portfolio Size and Concentration (14:48) Behavioral Analysis (17:31) Deep Value Terminal Activity (20:46) Behavioral Analysis (24:13) Valuation: Thermo Fisher (25:54) Valuation: Alphabet (27:15) Valuation: Walt Disney (28:19) Valuation: Thermo Fisher (31:21) Valuation: Alphabet (35:44) Valuation: Walt Disney (40:26) Valuation: Thermo Fisher (42:32) 10-Year Track Record (46:13) Limits of 13F Filing (47:53) Lessons for Investors (48:32) Deep Value Terminal Activity (49:08) Valuation: Thermo Fisher (50:34) KKR and TKO Moves (51:16) Lessons for Investors (52:57) Investor Toolkit (53:18) Get the free apps DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free: https://app.deepvalues.ai/?ref=podcast&src=why_nick_train_trimmed_thermo_fisher-en • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed): https://app.deepvalues.ai/letter?src=spotify&ref=why_nick_train_trimmed_thermo_fisher • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS): https://apps.apple.com/us/app/buffett-indicator/id6747404614 • The same market gauge on Android, Bubble Watch: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.luluventures.bubblewatch.android&referrer=utm_source%3Dspotify%26utm_medium%3Ddescription%26utm_campaign%3Dinvestor • Open-source research on 300+ companies: https://research.deepvalues.ai/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=investor&utm_content=why_nick_train_trimmed_thermo_fisher • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst: https://deepvalues.ai/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=investor&utm_content=why_nick_train_trimmed_thermo_fisher

    Nick Train Cut Thermo Fisher 24%: Priced Too High? | Investor Playbook

  7. 17h ago

    Markel's Tom Gayner Traded Just 0.6% of $12.8B | Investor Playbook

    In Q3 2026, while Wall Street traded nonstop, Tom Gayner turned over just 0.6% of Markel's $12.8B stock portfolio. We break down what the 'next Berkshire' holds, why staying still has compounded so well, and what a 13F filing can't show you. • Free DeepValues app, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock: iPhone https://apps.apple.com/us/app/deepvalues/id6775568608 · Android https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=app.deepvalues.android&referrer=utm_source%3Dspotify%26utm_medium%3Ddescription%26utm_campaign%3Dinvestor Chapters (0:00) Deep Value 13F Review (5:00) Q3 2026 Portfolio (8:03) Top 10 Holdings (13:13) Macro Stats Turnover (14:53) Alphabet Trim Move (16:59) Macro Stats Turnover (17:38) Zoetis Valued Move (22:54) Meta Platforms Trim (25:33) Alphabet Trim Move (28:07) 10-Year Clone Track (30:26) Patient Investor Lessons (32:29) Get the free apps DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free: https://app.deepvalues.ai/?ref=podcast&src=the_tom_gayner_do_nothing_portfolio-en • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed): https://app.deepvalues.ai/letter?src=spotify&ref=the_tom_gayner_do_nothing_portfolio • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS): https://apps.apple.com/us/app/buffett-indicator/id6747404614 • The same market gauge on Android, Bubble Watch: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.luluventures.bubblewatch.android&referrer=utm_source%3Dspotify%26utm_medium%3Ddescription%26utm_campaign%3Dinvestor • Open-source research on 300+ companies: https://research.deepvalues.ai/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=investor&utm_content=the_tom_gayner_do_nothing_portfolio • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst: https://deepvalues.ai/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=investor&utm_content=the_tom_gayner_do_nothing_portfolio • Developer API for your AI agents: https://app.deepvalues.ai/developers?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=investor&utm_content=the_tom_gayner_do_nothing_portfolio Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate. • This episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/CQteUV6e-0w

    Markel's Tom Gayner Traded Just 0.6% of $12.8B | Investor Playbook

  8. 1d ago

    Palantir Technologies (PLTR) — Bearish? Palantir at $428.6B: The Risks Hidden in Footnotes

    Bearish on Palantir Technologies (PLTR) as of 2026-11-03: $428.6B market value. We strip Palantir's record quarter down to true owner earnings, from a 1.2% tax rate to one unnamed client behind 27% of receivables. At a $428.6 billion valuation, those footnotes decide whether any margin of safety is left. Chapters (0:00) Priced for Perfection to Infinity (3:30) What Would Make This Thesis Wrong (4:11) Priced for Perfection to Infinity (4:53) Moat Trajectory: WIDENING (9:32) Non-GAAP Reconciliation Autopsy (14:08) Implied Price vS.Intrinsic Value (15:26) Forensic Footnote Leager (Part 1) (18:54) Forensic Footnote Ledger (Part 2) (20:12) Non-GAAP Reconciliation Autopsy (22:51) Forensic Footnote Leager (Part 1) (27:24) Capital Allocation & Candour (28:22) The Forensic Ledger: Operational vs. (29:25) Non-GAAP Reconciliation Autopsy (30:50) Moat Trajectory: WIDENING (35:18) Capital Allocation & Candour (38:42) What Would Make This Thesis Wrong (39:59) Implied Price vS.Intrinsic Value (40:39) OVERVALUED (42:02) Implied Price vS.Intrinsic Value (42:42) OVERVALUED (44:36) Get the free apps Full open-source research report: https://research.deepvalues.ai/insights/2026-11-03-palantir-q3-2026-earnings-financial-research/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=company&utm_content=pltr DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free: https://app.deepvalues.ai/?ref=podcast&src=palantir_stock_valuation_and_hidden_financia-en • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed): https://app.deepvalues.ai/letter?src=spotify&ref=pltr • DeepValues for iOS, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/deepvalues/id6775568608 • DeepValues for Android: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=app.deepvalues.android&referrer=utm_source%3Dspotify%26utm_medium%3Ddescription%26utm_campaign%3Dcompany • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS): https://apps.apple.com/us/app/buffett-indicator/id6747404614 • The same market gauge on Android, Bubble Watch: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.luluventures.buffett&referrer=utm_source%3Dspotify%26utm_medium%3Ddescription%26utm_campaign%3Dcompany • Open-source research on 300+ companies: https://research.deepvalues.ai/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=company&utm_content=pltr

    Palantir Technologies (PLTR) — Bearish? Palantir at $428.6B: The Risks Hidden in Footnotes
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About

Value investing and stock analysis, Buffett-style. Each episode audits one company or market story: intrinsic value, discounted cash flow, margin of safety, moats and balance-sheet risk, ending with a clear Bullish, Neutral or Bearish stance. From Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst at deepvalues.ai. Open-source research on 300+ companies at research.deepvalues.ai; the DeepValues app for iPhone and Android values any stock. Video: YouTube @TheDeepValues. Chinese edition: 深度价值. Also on Apple Podcasts. Educational content, not investment advice.

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