Hodl Up Podcast

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your exit liquidity guys

  1. Sep 19

    Futarchy and Decision Markets | Robin Hanson

    The economist who coined "futarchy" explains what decision markets are, why almost nobody has adopted them, and why every complaint about prediction markets applies to journalism first. Robin Hanson's market scoring rule work founded the modern field. Across this conversation he applies one yardstick to every objection we put to him: compare prediction markets to the information institutions we already have, rather than to perfection. In this episode: • Why most traders lose, and why that is not unique to prediction markets • The insider trading double standard — roughly half of a stock's move around an announcement happens before it • What a decision market is, and how futarchy applies it to governance • Why organisations reject the mechanism, and the C-suite analogy that explains it • Why complaining about a resolution error is a compliment to the market Robin Hanson is Associate Professor of Economics at George Mason University and the originator of futarchy. (00:00) Intro (04:00) Most traders lose — the poker table problem (07:54) Insider trading, and the double standard (11:15) Decision markets and futarchy, explained (16:49) Why organisations reject prediction markets (21:16) What a real backlash would look like (25:09) "Just buy the index fund" (29:12) Resolution disputes: your complaint is praise (32:26) What betting does to ordinary language (34:30) Journalism had to earn its reputation too (38:50) AI traders and why he isn't worried (40:40) The Hollywood Stock Exchange warning (42:26) Closing: the early web comparison Nothing here is financial, investment or legal advice.

  2. Sep 19

    Prediction Market Manipulation | Rajiv Sethi

    A prediction market nobody can rig is a market nobody believes in. Columbia economist Rajiv Sethi explains the paradox at the centre of the category, and the study that found wash trading peaking near 60% of Polymarket volume. Rajiv Sethi has studied prediction market manipulation for more than twenty years, back through PredictIt and InTrade to the DARPA fight of 2003. This is the version of the story that does not appear in the pitch decks. In this episode: • What a prediction market price actually means, and why it is not an average belief • Three distinct kinds of manipulation — resolution, derivative markets, and reflexive events • The Romney whale: a third of Romney-side transactions, seven million dollars lost • How the Columbia wash trading study works, and why the method matters more than the number • Zombie forecasts — the month in 2024 when every major election model had to be suspended • Why his first fix is enforceable third-party KYC rather than a ban Rajiv Sethi is Professor of Economics at Barnard College, Columbia University, and an External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute. (00:00) What a prediction market price actually means (02:48) Whales, and the 87–90% who never switch sides (05:47) DARPA, Poindexter and the 2003 shutdown (11:32) Three kinds of manipulation (17:27) How insider information bleeds into oil and the S&P (24:21) The wash trading study: 60% of Polymarket volume (29:46) Is this gambling? (31:45) Where the real value sits: public health forecasting (35:10) Zombie forecasts (38:33) KYC, zero-knowledge identity and what he would regulate (46:10) Breaking the Kalshi–Polymarket duopoly (50:00) The paradox: neither excessive nor absent Note on the 60% figure: it is a December 2024 peak, not a steady state. The paper's headline aggregate is closer to 25%, and the rate had fallen to roughly 20% by October 2025. Nothing here is financial, investment or legal advice.

  3. Sep 19

    Hyperliquid Prediction Markets | Wasim Fukase

    Stratium's founder does not call them prediction markets. He calls them binary options, and he says the reason is regulatory. A candid conversation with a builder about Hyperliquid prediction markets, oracle risk, and the liquidity problem most operators will not name on the record. Wasim Fukase founded Stratium on Hyperliquid in 2025 and reports roughly $400M cumulative volume. In this episode: • Why he calls them binary options instead of prediction markets, and what that buys him • Why Hyperliquid, and the 2022 thesis behind the choice • Where the volume comes from — and why a venue that does not want sports took its biggest month from the World Cup • "Right now of course the liquidity is the issue, and this is being honest about it" • Oracle manipulation, and HIP-4's staked and slashable design versus a token-holder vote • Which markets should not exist, and where the filter belongs Wasim Fukase is the founder of Stratium, built on Hyperliquid, and previously of the oracle project ChainSight. (00:00) Intro: who is Wasim Fukase, and what is Stratium (04:29) Why build on Hyperliquid (07:15) Binary options in TradFi, and what actually changed (08:43) Where the volume comes from — $400M and the World Cup (11:35) "If there's manipulation, would you really call it on chain?" (14:49) Oracle risk, staking and slashing under HIP-4 (18:36) Which markets should not exist (23:03) Is the sector durable, or is it rotated crypto flow? (26:58) The business model, and why he says binary options (31:19) VPN bans, and who access controls actually bind (34:25) "Wall Street itself is an entire gambling platform" Note: the episode describes the EU as contemplating a VPN ban. A European Parliament think-tank paper floated restrictions in May 2026; there is no European Commission proposal to ban VPNs. Nothing here is financial, investment or legal advice.

  4. Aug 12

    Corey Petty (Logos): Privacy Can't Be Bolted On

    Corey Petty (Logos) on why crypto's adoption looks like TradFi on the internet, why privacy has to live at the base layer instead of the ledger, and how AI hyperscalers came to own the entire information pipeline. Plus: mining your first transaction to bootstrap an anonymity set.

  5. Jul 1

    Jesus Lander | Proof of Talk Series

    We met with Jesus Lander to talk about how institutional-grade investment strategies can move onchain through tokenized vaults, connected apps, protocols, and advisor platforms.

  6. Jul 1

    Merita Spahiu @ CashXChain | Proof of Talk Series

    While there, we had the chance to interview Merita Spahiu from CashXChainand discuss about the real world issues stablecoins can be used to solve.

  7. Jun 12

    Crypto. Democratizes. Finance.

    While in Paris, we had an insightful discussion with Ben Nadareski, the CEO of Solstice, about the recent SLX TGE, the community feedback, the whole thought process behind it, and what lies ahead.

  8. Jun 10

    Legion’s Next Move Could Change Web3

    We stood up (literally) with Matt O’Connor from Legion to discuss Legion’s next chapter and how builders are adapting. For them, the next step is leading the evolution of private markets.

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About

your exit liquidity guys

Information

  • Creator
    Hodl Up
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    47
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © Hodl Up
  • Show Website
    Hodl Up Podcast