In this snack-sized episode of Home: The Second Story, we talk about uncertainty and how much of it shows up when homeowners are deciding whether to renovate, build new, or take on a custom residential project. Big projects come with big unknowns. There is uncertainty in the market, in the environment, in pricing, in interest rates, and in our own lives. No one has a crystal ball. No architect can predict exactly what will happen with school systems, real estate, gas prices, construction costs, or a family’s future needs. What we do have is experience working inside uncertainty every day. Uncertainty is not new. It can feel like this moment is more unstable than any other, but every era has had its own major disruptions. The 2008 housing crash changed the path of Sheri’s career. COVID changed the way projects were built, priced, and planned. Those events were not neat, singular moments. They created ripple effects that are still shaping the construction industry, especially in pricing, supply chains, and client expectations. We also talk about the uncertainty that lives inside the project itself. In renovation work, we can plan carefully and still discover hidden problems the first time a contractor opens a wall. There may be rot, structural issues, or conditions that no one could have seen ahead of time. The way to prepare is not to pretend those surprises will not happen. The way to prepare is to build in contingency money, extra time, and emotional capacity. On new custom homes, uncertainty often shows up through cost tracking and decision making. Even when most choices have been made, a team may need to pause, review the budget, and adjust. Sometimes that means removing a design feature that would have been beautiful but is not essential. That does not mean the team failed. It means the team stayed aware, communicated, and corrected course before the end of the project. We also remind homeowners to look at how they already handle uncertainty in daily life. A family vacation can be disrupted by weather. A dinner plan can change when the grocery store is missing an ingredient. These moments require contingency planning, flexibility, and calm decision making. A residential project is the same kind of problem, just at a much larger scale. The key is knowing your own tolerance for change. A fully custom home involves the most decisions and the most uncertainty. A renovation, semi-custom home, or existing house may be a better fit depending on your capacity, life stage, and appetite for decision making. There are ways to reduce the unknowns, but there is no way to remove them completely. We close by talking about timing. Many clients wait because they hope prices will come down, but construction rarely gets cheaper over time. Commodities like lumber can fluctuate, but labor shortages, manufacturing costs, and long-term market pressures continue to push prices up. The best time to do a project is usually now or ten years ago. A strong team will not promise that nothing will go wrong. A strong team will help you prepare, react well, and keep moving when surprises happen. (00:00) Welcome & introducing today's topic: uncertainty (01:15) Why clients want someone to tell them what to do (02:52) Career milestones: the 2008 crash & COVID's lasting impact (04:05) Supply chain ripple effects and permanent price changes (05:26) Two questions: should I do the project, and how do I design for longevity? (06:22) Renovation surprises: why contingency budgets matter (08:02) Managing budget in new construction — staying aligned as a team (10:43) Drawing parallels: how you handle everyday uncertainty applies here (13:01) Knowing your tolerance for change and decision fatigue (15:33) Why waiting for prices to drop is usually a mistake (17:53) The skilled trades shortage and rising labor costs (19:30) Final thoughts: making uncertainty more manageable Have questions? Want to be on our show? Email us! admin@htsspodcast.com Learn about our hosts: Marilyn: Runcible Studios: https://runciblestudios.com SherI: Springhouse Architects: https://springhousearchitects.com Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
