Futures Research Unpacked

Wensupu Yang
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Futures Research Unpacked explores thought-provoking research in futures studies, strategic foresight, and related fields. Each episode breaks down one paper in a way that's easy to follow but still rich in ideas.

  1. 4h ago

    #56 - Futures literacy and the diversity of the future

    Have you ever wondered why we treat 'the future' like a storm on the horizon we have to prepare for, rather than a house we are currently designing? Most of us act based on hidden assumptions about what’s coming next, yet we rarely stop to ask if our way of 'using' the future is actually helping us solve the complex crises of the 21st century. In this episode, we dive into research that argues being truly 'futures literate' is about much more than mastering scenario planning or trend analysis. It introduces the concept of 'reflexivity'—the capacity to critically examine the underlying assumptions, expectations, and power structures that shape how we think about the 'later-than-now.' By becoming literate about the different attitudes we hold toward the future, we can move from being passive observers to active designers of meaning. The authors unpack how different intellectual traditions—from risk management to critical sociology—make fundamentally different claims about what the future is and how it manifests in the present. They warn that an over-reliance on predictive, data-driven models can 'close down' our collective imagination, making us reactive rather than transformative. To combat this, they propose a framework that embraces a diversity of approaches, including experimental and critical methods that can open up new pathways for social change. Ultimately, the research suggests that 'Techniques of Futuring' are not just tools for accuracy, but social practices that bring people together around shared orientations for action. By understanding which approach is 'fit-for-purpose' for a given challenge, we can better navigate the ideological power that goes into shaping our world. • Reflexivity as a core component of futures literacy, allowing us to identify the 'prior commitments' framing our knowledge. • A categorization of four distinct epistemological attitudes: Predictive, Plausible, Experimental, and Critical. • The insight that shaping the future is a form of 'ideological power' that coordinates action in the present. • The role of 'Techniques of Futuring' in creating shared realities that can inspire transformative change. Tune in as we explore how to broaden your perspective and become an active designer of meaning in an uncertain world. Ref: Astrid C. Mangnus, Jeroen Oomen, Joost M. Vervoort, Maarten A. Hajer. Futures literacy and the diversity of the future. Futures, 132, 2021, 102793. ISSN 0016-3287. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2021.102793

  2. 1d ago

    #55 - The Forthcoming Artificial Intelligence (AI) Revolution: Its Impact on Society and Firms

    Imagine it is 1995 and someone tells you that in just twenty years, you will carry a device in your pocket more powerful than a supercomputer, capable of navigating complex cities and translating foreign languages in real-time [1]. This paper explores the next leap: the "forthcoming AI revolution," arguing that its impact will likely surpass that of the Industrial and Digital revolutions combined [2], [3]. The author, Spyros Makridakis, evaluates his own past predictions from 1995—noting where he correctly foresaw wireless connectivity but missed the explosive rise of the smartphone—to set the stage for what he expects by the year 2037 [4], [5], [6]. The core of the research delves into how AI differs from previous technologies by moving beyond pre-programmed logic to "deep learning" that mimics the human mind [7], [8]. This shift creates a competitive landscape where firms must navigate four potential futures: a techno-utopia, a dystopian loss of human agency, a pragmatic human-AI partnership, or a world where human creativity remains the ultimate un-hackable asset [9], [10], [11], [12]. Makridakis argues that while the risks are profound, the potential for augmenting human intelligence offers a path toward unprecedented productivity and wealth [13], [14]. • The AI revolution aims to substitute or amplify practically all mental tasks, posing the first serious challenge to human supremacy [15], [16], [17]. • Firms of the future will likely be smaller and more innovative, driven by "big data" and intense global competition that favors early adopters of AI [18], [19], [20]. • While nearly half of existing occupations face automation, new roles emphasizing social skills, creativity, and interpersonal expertise will likely emerge to fill the gap [21], [22], [23]. Tune in as we unpack whether we are heading toward a life as leisurely "modern Athenians" or running the risk of becoming well-fed pets of our own inventions [24], [25], [10]. Ref: Makridakis, S. The Forthcoming Artificial Intelligence (AI) Revolution: Its Impact on Society and Firms. Futures, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2017.03.006

  3. 2d ago

    #54 - To Augment Human Capacity—Artificial Intelligence Evolution through Causal Layered Analysis

    Have you ever wondered why our visions of artificial intelligence seem to constantly oscillate between a tech-fueled paradise and a dystopian nightmare? It turns out, these stories aren't just modern reactions to Silicon Valley—they are part of a five-thousand-year-old human journey to expand the boundaries of our own minds, bodies, and social structures. This episode dives into a fascinating genealogical study that moves beyond the typical timeline of microchips and algorithms. Instead, the research uses Causal Layered Analysis to peel back the historical layers of AI, examining how our cultural worldviews and deep-seated myths have shaped the technology we see today. By looking at "discontinuities" in history—moments where society fundamentally changed how it thinks—the paper reveals that our current obsession with AI is deeply rooted in an ancient drive for "advantage," whether that’s military, economic, or spiritual. The author traces AI through five distinct eras, starting from ancient calculation tools like the abacus to the modern era of machine-inspired hope and vulnerability. This perspective is crucial because it helps us understand that AI isn't just a technical achievement; it's a reflection of our collective psyche. By analyzing the "litany" of news headlines alongside the deeper "myths" of the brain-as-machine, the study offers a powerful framework for anticipating how AI might evolve over the next twenty years and how we might steer it toward a more humanitarian future. • AI development is cyclical rather than linear, characterized by alternating "winters" of disillusionment and "summers" of intense investment. • The core worldview driving AI has consistently been the pursuit of "advantage," shifting from the physical mechanization of labor to the centrality of data-driven reasoning. • Deep-seated metaphors, such as the "brain as a machine," have remained remarkably stable for millennia, continuing to bias our current policy and design choices. • Current global tensions have created a "risk-benefit duality" where machine-inspired hope and human vulnerability coexist in our daily digital interactions. Tune in to explore how the ghosts of 5,000 years of human ambition are still haunting the code of our newest AI assistants. Ref: Farrow, E. To Augment Human Capacity—Artificial Intelligence Evolution through Causal Layered Analysis. Futures, 2019. ISSN 0016-3287. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2019.02.022

  4. 3d ago

    #53 - Organisational Artificial Intelligence Future Scen

    Imagine a Tuesday in 2038. You arrive at 'work,' but the very meaning of the word has shifted. Your closest collaborator isn’t a human colleague, but a sophisticated algorithm you’ve come to regard as your 'Best Robot Friend Forever.' While it handles the data-heavy drudgery you never enjoyed, you are free to focus on higher-level strategy and creative problem-solving. This isn't just a scene from a sci-fi novel; it’s a plausible future for the organizations we inhabit. In this episode, we explore research that moves beyond the binary 'man vs. machine' debate to examine how Artificial Intelligence is fundamentally reshaping organizational ecology. By synthesizing insights from professional futurists using the 'Six Pillars' methodology, the study unpacks how our deeply held metaphors—often inherited from fiction—shape our readiness for an automated world. It challenges the traditional view of workers as 'cogs in a machine' and proposes a future where leadership and team structures are redefined by inclusivity, experimentation, and shared agency between humans and AI. • The 'Best Robot Friend Forever' (BRFF) metaphor highlights a transition from viewing AI as a tool to seeing it as a collegial partner in a diverse workforce. • Future leadership must shift from hierarchical control to a facilitator role, managing the emotional and ethical implications of a hybrid human-AI environment. • Organizational adaptation is framed as a multi-layered process, where success depends on navigating the 'weight' of historical capitalist systems and the 'push' of emerging technological drivers. • By 2038, AI is predicted to become ubiquitous—a technology so woven into the fabric of daily operations that it is no longer discussed as a separate entity. Tune in as we deconstruct the roadmap to a truly augmented organizational future. Ref: Farrow, Elissa. Organisational Artificial Intelligence Future Scenarios: Futurists Insights and Implications for the Organisational Adaptation Approach, Leader and Team. Journal of Futures Studies, 24(3), 2020, 1–15. ISSN 1027-6084. https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.202003 24(3).0001

  5. 4d ago

    #52 - Evolution of framework foresight

    Have you ever felt overwhelmed by a mountain of scanning data, trying to figure out which trends actually matter for your organization's future? The challenge of professional foresight isn't just finding information; it's organizing it into a coherent story that leads to meaningful action. In this episode, we explore 'Framework Foresight,' a systematic methodology developed to guide projects from initial framing to final implementation. Author Andy Hines traces the evolution of this 'Houston Way' of doing futures work, detailing how the method has been refined through a continuous feedback loop between graduate-level teaching and real-world client engagements. The result is a modular 'meta-method' that allows practitioners to swap in various techniques while maintaining a logical flow from research to strategy. We break down the significant upgrades made to the framework over the last decade, including the integration of the Three Horizons model for timing and a modified version of Jim Dator’s four archetypes for scenario development. By shifting from a cluttered set of inputs to a streamlined 'TIPPS' model and using thematic drivers as building blocks, the framework helps bridge the gap between identifying 'weak signals' and making high-stakes strategic choices. • The TIPPS model (Trends, Issues, Plans, and Projections) provides a simplified structure for categorizing complex future research. • The use of four scenario archetypes—Continuation, Collapse, New Equilibrium, and Transformation—ensures a robust range of alternative futures is explored for any domain. • A specialized rating exercise helps organizations prioritize strategic attention by measuring scenario likelihood against their own levels of unpreparedness. Tune in to learn how to turn the messy art of futures exploration into a disciplined, evolving framework for long-term success. Ref: Andy Hines. Evolution of framework foresight. foresight, 2020. ISSN 1463-6689. https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-03-2020-0018

  6. 5d ago

    #51 - Building Foresight Capacity Toward a Foresight Co

    Imagine you're asked to lead your organization through a period of radical uncertainty. Do you rely on gut instinct, or is there a specific set of professional skills you can sharpen to navigate what's coming? While many of us 'think about the future' as a part of our daily lives, the question of what actually constitutes professional expertise in foresight has remained surprisingly elusive—until now. In this episode, we dive into a landmark effort to professionalize the field of futures studies. We examine a multi-year journey by a global task force that sought to define the specific knowledge, skills, and attributes required to be a professional futurist. This work shifts the conversation from foresight as a property of an organization to foresight as a cognitive ability of the individual, providing a rigorous benchmark for what it means to lead in an increasingly complex world. By breaking down the practice into six core technical competencies—framing, scanning, futuring, visioning, designing, and adapting—this research provides a roadmap for practitioners to move beyond simple trend-watching toward intentional system transformation. This model offers a structured way to turn the 'intangible asset' of human foresight into a measurable professional advantage, whether through individual career development or organizational team building. • Distinguishes between basic 'competence' (threshold performance) and 'competencies' required for superior performance in identifying emergent patterns. • Identifies six core technical practices that define the professional toolkit: framing, scanning, futuring, visioning, designing, and adapting. • Bridges the gap between traditional strategic planning and modern design-led foresight through the inclusion of prototyping and artifact creation. • Provides practical use cases for both individuals and team leaders to map strengths and systematically address skill gaps. Tune in as we unpack the essential toolkit for anyone serious about professionalizing the way we anticipate and shape the future. Ref: Andy Hines, Jay Gary, Cornelia Daheim, Luke van der Laan. Building Foresight Capacity: Toward a Foresight Competency Model. World Futures Review, 2017, 1-19.

  7. 6d ago

    #50 - Farewell Alternative Futures?

    Imagine you're standing at a crossroads where every path leading to a bright, prosperous tomorrow seems to be closing off, one by one. For decades, the field of futures studies promised us a menu of "alternative futures" we could choose and build. But what if that menu is being pulled from the table? In this episode, we explore Richard Slaughter's sobering yet essential reflection on the current state of foresight. Slaughter argues that the classic optimistic notion of "alternative futures"—where humanity has unqualified agency to design its destiny—no longer holds the same credibility. He examines how massive systemic shifts like the Anthropocene, the rise of organized denialism, and the "progress traps" of our own history have funneled us toward a far more constrained global trajectory. We’ll look at how the evolution of futures studies itself has moved from simple trend-counting to a deep "critical turn" that incorporates values, power structures, and integral theory. Slaughter suggests that while the dream of generically different global macro-futures may be fading, human agency hasn't been nullified. Instead, it has shifted to more localized, "mosaic" responses centered on renewal, resilience, and navigating the inevitable "bottleneck" of our high-tech civilization. • The end of "unqualified agency" in the face of planetary boundaries and the Anthropocene. • The impact of "unreality industries" and neoliberalism in sabotaging collective foresight. • The concept of "progress traps"—how past successes, from farming to the internet, created deferred costs we are now forced to pay. • A shift toward "integral futures" that uses interpretive power and visionary potential to find meaning within a singular, challenging macro-future. Tune in as we say "farewell" to easy optimism and "hello" to the hard work of building a viable path through the civilisational bottleneck. Ref: Richard A. Slaughter. Farewell Alternative Futures?. Futures, 2019, 102496. ISSN 0016-3287. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2019.102496

  8. Jun 10

    #49 - Not Organic Gardening or Rocket Science New Metap

    If someone told you that dumping 100 tons of iron into the Pacific Ocean was just 'organic gardening,' would you believe them? This is the starting point for a fascinating exploration into the power of the metaphors we use to describe geoengineering—large-scale interventions designed to fix our climate. In this episode, we dive into John Sweeney’s analysis of how these stories aren't just colorful language; they are political tools that shape which futures we can imagine and which ones we've already given up on. Sweeney uses Causal Layered Analysis to peel back the levels of our 'geoengineered imaginaries.' He examines the maverick 'geo-vigilante' persona of entrepreneurs alongside the formal, regulatory 'Oxford Principles.' What he finds is a field stuck in a 'used future'—a reliance on old institutional rules and binary politics that fails to address the radical uncertainty of our current climate emergency. By deconstructing these narratives, the paper challenges us to move beyond mere strategic foresight toward something more transformative. • Deconstructs the 'organic gardening' metaphor used to mask the ethical and ecological risks of ocean iron fertilization. • Critiques current regulatory frameworks for prioritizing existing rules over deep, participatory engagement with future generations. • Proposes a shift from 'finite games'—where the goal is a specific technical win—to 'infinite games' that aim to keep the planet and its people 'in play.' • Introduces the reframed metaphor of 'Joyful Poets' to represent a new, collaborative politics of collective experimentation. Tune in as we unpack why saving the world might require us to start playing a completely different kind of game. Ref: Sweeney, John A. Not Organic Gardening or Rocket Science: New Metaphors (and a Politics) for Geoengineered Imaginaries. Journal of Futures Studies, 28(1), 2023, 101-113. https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.202309_28(1).0009

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Futures Research Unpacked explores thought-provoking research in futures studies, strategic foresight, and related fields. Each episode breaks down one paper in a way that's easy to follow but still rich in ideas.

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  • Creator
    Wensupu Yang
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    56
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2026 Wensupu Yang
  • Show Website
    Futures Research Unpacked