The Mustard Seed—a bitcoin and long-term thinking podcast

Joe Burnett
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Joe Burnett is Vice President of Bitcoin Strategy at Strive (Nasdaq: ASST) following the Strive + Semler Scientific transaction. He previously served as Director of Bitcoin Strategy at Semler Scientific, helping build a treasury of over 5,000 BTC, and as Director of Market Research at Unchained, which secures more than 100,000 BTC. Joe hosts The Mustard Seed podcast and previously worked at Blockware Solutions and Ernst & Young. He holds degrees in Information Systems, Computer Science, and Business Analytics from the University of Georgia.

  1. 4D AGO

    When will the Bitcoin Bear Market End? w/ Rational Root

    Root returns to break down where bitcoin stands in the current cycle, using on-chain data, macro signals, and historical patterns to assess whether a bottom is forming. This conversation explores diminishing returns, institutional adoption, long-term holder sell pressure, and why the next major bull market could emerge once scarcity and demand realign. Timestamps: 00:00 Root returns: where bitcoin is in the cycle 00:44 Four-year cycle still “right on track” 03:49 Spiral chart: where bottoms land in prior cycles 05:10 Breaking the bull trend in late 2025 09:42 What’s driving the current bear market 15:51 Short-term holder bands: mezzanine vs floor 18:50 Realized price at ~$55k and downside scenarios 20:42 Halving cycle vs business cycle (PMI) 24:22 Do PMI and other narratives actually predict price? 31:56 Gold at extreme RSI and why bitcoin behaves differently 37:54 OG holder sell pressure and the “bitcoin IPO phase” 41:02 On-chain value map: undervalued vs heavily undervalued 42:21 Diminishing returns, diminishing drawdowns, and future upside 51:51 Stock-to-flow, power law, and which models matter 54:39 What would break the bitcoin thesis? Hyperbitcoinization timeline

    1h 2m

  2. FEB 7

    The 4 Year Bitcoin Cycle is Dead, MSTR, Extreme Vol, and Gold Treasury Companies

    Bitcoin’s volatility is shaking out weak hands and setting the stage for a stronger market structure. In this conversation with CJ from Strategy, we break down why volatility is expected, how bitcoin treasury companies and digital credit are reshaping capital markets, and where institutional adoption goes next. If you want to understand what’s really happening beneath the price action, this episode connects the dots. 00:00 Why bitcoin’s volatility is a feature, not a bug 08:11 Are bitcoin cycles still real or just liquidity driven 14:12 Why billion-dollar buys barely move the bitcoin price 18:00 Digital credit and the new bitcoin capital markets 24:10 From stablecoins to yield-bearing bitcoin money 27:05 The infinitely scalable bitcoin treasury model 31:30 Where digital credit yields go from here 34:00 Could a gold treasury company ever work 39:45 Why bitcoin volatility will keep compressing 43:25 Quantum fears and securing bitcoin for decades 49:15 Biggest myths about bitcoin treasury companies 55:10 Why critics make bitcoin stronger

    56 min

  3. FEB 4

    Resetting the Global Monetary System on Gold and Bitcoin 🟡🟠

    In this conversation, Joe Burnett sits down with Mark Valek of Incrementum to unpack why today’s debt-based monetary system remains structurally fragile and how it may ultimately be recapitalized. They explore gold and bitcoin as monetary anchors, central bank behavior, inflationary reset scenarios, and why gold has recently outperformed bitcoin despite their shared role as sound money assets. Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and the claim that the current monetary system is unsustainable 02:00 From gold-backed money to debt-based money and the exponential debt problem 05:20 Can the system break, or can fiat last longer than expected? 08:20 How fiat systems may be recapitalized through gold and sound assets 10:48 Do central bankers still understand gold and sound money? 13:30 Long-term outlook: deficits, inflation, and social consequences 20:14 How far gold and bitcoin could run in a recapitalization scenario 24:34 Who is buying gold and why the gold market regime has changed 29:00 Total gold market size and liquidity considerations 32:26 Why bitcoin has lagged gold and how to interpret the divergence 37:34 Closing thoughts and where to find Mark Valek’s work

    39 min

  4. JAN 28

    Understanding the Parabolic Rise of Gold (Analog Bitcoin) with Joe Consorti

    Gold and silver are sending a signal that few are prepared to hear, while bitcoin quietly trades far below its long-term implications. In this conversation, Joe Consorti breaks down sovereign flows, monetary metals, yen carry dynamics, and why bitcoin’s underperformance may be the setup, not the conclusion. If hard money is being repriced globally, the ceiling for bitcoin just moved much higher. Timestamps: 00:00 The Surge of Gold and Silver Prices 05:30 Understanding the Shift in Global Monetary Dynamics 10:14 Bitcoin's Performance in a Changing Market 17:40 The Future of Bitcoin and Its Market Potential 27:58 Bitcoin and Gold Parity: A New Era 31:51 The Yen Carry Trade: Implications for Global Markets 36:51 The Future of the Federal Reserve: Rate Cuts and Inflation 44:56 AI and Its Impact on Productivity and Asset Valuation

    59 min

  5. JAN 21

    The Next Liquidity Wave Will Look Completely Different w/ Peter Dunworth

    Bitcoin did not rally in 2025, yet the foundations for the next decade were laid quietly and decisively. This conversation breaks down why ETFs ended the four-year cycle, how the global collateral crisis points toward bitcoin, and why AI-driven abundance makes fixed digital scarcity more valuable over time. It is a long-term, low-time preference discussion on where capital ultimately settles when incentives, regulation, and technology align. Timestamps: 00:00 - Why bitcoin underperformed in 2025 but fundamentals strengthened 03:06 - Why the four-year bitcoin cycle is ending 05:17 - ETFs changed bitcoin’s market structure permanently 07:33 - How fast bitcoin adoption is really happening 10:13 - What if a bitcoin ETF launched in 2013? 12:18 - Strategic bitcoin reserves and unmet price expectations 15:12 - Why bitcoin supply no longer matters 17:44 - The global collateral crisis and why bitcoin solves it 23:32 - Larry Fink, ETFs, and financializing bitcoin 25:26 - The bamboo analogy for bitcoin’s next growth phase 28:50 - Why a US bitcoin reserve would trigger global adoption 36:19 - Liquidity, manufacturing, and a new economic cycle 40:14 - AI, abundance, and why scarcity makes bitcoin inevitable 47:27 - Bitcoin treasury companies, sentiment, and opportunity 57:57 - Why bitcoin reaching $10 million is plausible

    1 hr

  6. JAN 14

    Deflationary Crunch, The Big Print & Buying Bitcoin Back Lower w/ Luke Gromen

    In this episode, Luke Gromen explains why U.S. fiscal math is breaking down, why the Fed is being forced toward monetization, and why real assets are quietly reasserting themselves as paper systems weaken. We discuss the growing divide between the financial world and the physical world, China’s long-term commodity strategy, AI-driven labor disruption, and what these shifts mean for bitcoin, gold, and institutional capital. Timestamps: 00:00 - Introduction and setting the macro context 00:50 - Trump, the Fed, and why deficit monetization is unavoidable 03:20 - Why U.S. fiscal math is already broken 06:40 - The split between the paper economy and the physical world 09:10 - How China traded dollars for commodities and leverage 12:40 - Why the dollar no longer guarantees access to real resources 13:55 - Supreme Court tariffs and whether policy choices still matter 15:10 - Why markets remain complacent despite rising global risk 18:05 - Where real stress is showing up beneath the surface 21:15 - AI as a productivity shock to white-collar employment 24:00 - Lessons from China joining the WTO and job displacement 26:45 - Political consequences of economic dislocation 29:10 - Deflationary crash versus inflationary reset scenarios 32:50 - Why execution and communication determine outcomes 34:40 - Why Luke reduced his bitcoin exposure 37:05 - Bitcoin versus gold and changing macro relationships 40:40 - Institutional behavior and long-term technical signals 44:00 - What would bring Luke back into bitcoin 48:15 - How low bitcoin could fall in a deflationary shock 52:35 - Unknown risks and why position sizing matters 56:20 - Can bitcoin surpass gold’s total market value

    1 hr

  7. JAN 7

    Bitcoin to $10,000,000 with Rajat Soni

    Bitcoin stands as a transformational tool for saving and capital allocation in a digital world. Rajat Soni explains how legacy finance models break down when applied to bitcoin and why the characteristics of money matter more than traditional valuation models. Viewers will gain a clear framework for thinking in decades and for understanding how Wall Street will eventually reprice the economy in bitcoin terms. Timestamps: 00:00 - Introduction and goals for the episode 01:06 - Rajat Soni’s background in fixed income management 03:04 - Discovering bitcoin through reading The bitcoin standard 05:18 - Leaving traditional finance and finding purpose in bitcoin 07:15 - Origins of the CFA Institute investigations 10:01 - How loan collateral works in bitcoin 12:19 - Why bitcoin functions as money 16:30 - Misconceptions about intrinsic value 18:09 - Characteristics of effective money 22:00 - Global demand for bitcoin as a medium of exchange 25:38 - Real estate as a savings vehicle 31:01 - Incentives shaping economies with bitcoin 34:19 - Bitcoin’s long-term outlook 36:34 - Integration of bitcoin and digital credit markets 40:06 - Future implications for investors 47:51 - Demand shocks and supply tightness 56:07 - Digital credit instruments and bitcoin 57:12 - Closing remarks and where to follow Rajat’s work

    59 min

  8. 12/23/2025

    MSTR’s Evolution into a Bitcoin Capital Markets Machine with Brian Brookshire

    MSTR’s bitcoin strategy is no longer a theory. It is a proven capital markets machine reshaping how corporations accumulate bitcoin through preferred equity, digital credit, and disciplined balance-sheet design. In this episode, we examine why volatility is being monetized, why fixed income is the next frontier, and why this strategy is built to compound over decades, not quarters. 00:00 - Why MicroStrategy’s bitcoin strategy was misunderstood 02:30 - The 2024 blow-off top that ignited bitcoin treasury adoption 05:00 - Why price action is the true signal for corporate bitcoin adoption 07:45 - How the strategy model survived the bear market 09:15 - The pivot from convertible bonds to perpetual preferred equity 12:10 - Why preferred equity works better in volatile markets 15:00 - Digital credit and unlocking the $300 trillion fixed-income market 18:45 - How long the bitcoin capital-markets arbitrage can last 22:45 - Bitcoin’s end game, AI, and long-term growth limits 27:20 - What digital credit looks like in the next bitcoin bull market 31:30 - Is BTC Yield a flawed or misunderstood metric 36:45 - Digital money, stablecoins, and building on bitcoin credit 44:00 - Has Saylor actually changed the core bitcoin strategy 49:15 - OG selling, volatility suppression, and market structure 54:30 - Why holding a USD reserve strengthens the bitcoin strategy

    1h 6m
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4.3
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About

Joe Burnett is Vice President of Bitcoin Strategy at Strive (Nasdaq: ASST) following the Strive + Semler Scientific transaction. He previously served as Director of Bitcoin Strategy at Semler Scientific, helping build a treasury of over 5,000 BTC, and as Director of Market Research at Unchained, which secures more than 100,000 BTC. Joe hosts The Mustard Seed podcast and previously worked at Blockware Solutions and Ernst & Young. He holds degrees in Information Systems, Computer Science, and Business Analytics from the University of Georgia.

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