In this third and final part of the conversation, Marxist economist Michael Roberts brings the argument of his 2016 book The Long Depression into the present. He begins with the view that the system works as long as decisions are good, which he finds unconvincing: a system that produces for profit, he argues, delivers both vitality and grotesque inequality, and cannot continue as it is. He describes a generation now worse off than its parents and presents the postwar golden age as the exception, a period when profitability was high enough for capitalism to make concessions. Turning to the current cycle, Roberts considers whether the long depression that followed 2008 may be ending, whether AI could lift profitability for a time, and why he expects the law of profitability to reassert itself, possibly in the 2030s or later. He answers economist Robert J. Gordon on stagnation and Thomas Piketty on taxing billionaires, and closes on three futures: a renewed expansion, a longer stagnation, or, if working people do not change the system, fascist and military regimes and what he calls barbarism, drawing on the fall of Rome. About Our Guest Michael Roberts worked in the City of London as an economist for more than thirty years before retiring. He is the author of The Great Recession: A Marxist View (2009) and The Long Depression (2016), the book at the center of this conversation; joint editor of The World in Crisis (2018); author of Marx 200: His Economics (2018) and Engels 200: His Economics (2020); and, with Guglielmo Carchedi, Capitalism in the 21st Century (2023). His next book, Time Is Running Out: The World Economy in the 2020s, is expected in December 2026. He writes regularly at thenextrecession.wordpress.com. Show Notes & Timestamps 00:00 Capitalism Fails People 01:17 Welcome and Recap 01:37 Financialization and Crisis Myths 03:02 How Capitalism Works 04:06 A Generation Worse Off 06:12 Golden Age Was Exception 08:19 Inflation and Profitability Shift 10:19 Another Expansion or New Slump 12:49 Who Benefits From Profits 13:49 Working Class Alternative 16:04 Reaction and Fascism Risk 17:01 Three Future Scenarios 21:06 Rome and Barbarism Warning 23:34 Closing Thanks and Wrap Key Concepts & Terms Law of Profitability — Roberts’s name for the pattern, set out in the earlier parts, by which the rate of profit falls over time. In Part Three he applies it to the present: the pandemic slump and technologies such as AI may create the conditions for a new level of profitability in some sectors, particularly in the United States, but on his account profitability would start to fall again if too much is invested in machines and AI relative to labor, which could bring a serious slump in the 2030s or a little later. The Golden Age — Roberts’s label for the postwar decades, when, as he remembers it, young people did better than their parents and housing, health, and education were expanding. He calls this the exception. On his account capitalism could make concessions then, such as the universal healthcare Britain has had since 1948, because profitability was high, and today’s struggle to raise living standards is the norm. Counter-Reforms — Roberts’s term for the period from the 1980s and 1990s onward in which, on his account, gains workers had won were rolled back: wages, trade union rights, state ownership through privatization, and welfare. He says calls to cut welfare continue because capitalists do not want to fund it when profitability is low, and remarks that arms spending is rarely named as an alternative. The Stagnation Thesis — The view Roberts attributes to the American economist Robert J. Gordon: that capitalism is doing badly, with productivity growth slowing right down and a stagnant economy as the result. Roberts treats stagnation as a possibility for a while longer, expects the economy to move either down or up, and says that in his view the stagnation is starting to come to an end. Fascinating Historical Insights A Reversal Since 2008 — Roberts observes that after the Second World War young people did better than their parents, and that since 2008 the pattern has run the other way. He says twenty years of depression amounts to a generation, and he points to Generation X and the millennials, who on his account will not match the living standards or the housing of his own generation, with problems across housing, roads, health, and education. Marx and the Materialist Conception of History — Roberts says that Marx described capitalism as the dominant system of the present, and that in Roberts’s view the next system will work only if it is socialist. He adds that Marx’s phrase, the materialist conception of history, did not mean an automatic passage from capitalism to socialism, and he warns of forces of reaction that seek to reverse workers’ gains and could bring fascist and military regimes. Who Is Utopian? — Roberts notes that Marxists are usually accused of being utopian for envisioning a socialist society, and turns the charge on Thomas Piketty. In Roberts’s account, Piketty holds that Marx was wrong and that inequality, not profitability, is now the central issue, and so proposes taxing the wealthy. Roberts has no objection to taxing billionaires heavily, but asks whether that can happen while billionaires control the means of production and the governments that support them. A program limited to taxation, he argues, leaves the big banks, energy companies, and tech firms untouched. Barbarism and the Fall of Rome — Roberts explains his use of the word barbarism through the Roman Empire. Writers after that period described a civilization of aqueducts and production that collapsed over a long time; from about 400 AD, on his account, roads and buildings deteriorated, small farming communities were left unable to maintain the system, and people were reduced to subsistence. He warns of a similar descent if working people cannot change the system in a further crisis. Resources & Further Reading Primary Sources Michael Roberts, The Long Depression (2016) — the book at the center of this conversation, in which Roberts says he shows the fall in profitability across the major economies in a graph.Michael Roberts, Time Is Running Out: The World Economy in the 2020s (forthcoming, December 2026) — the book in which Roberts says he raises the possibility of a renewed period of expansion. Works Discussed Thomas Piketty, Capital in the 21st Century — the book Roberts says made Piketty well known in the 2010s, and whose argument for taxing the wealthy he answers.Roberts names Piketty’s book by title only, and no edition or year is cited in this episode. He describes Robert J. Gordon’s argument and Marx’s materialist conception of history in his own words, without naming specific works, and refers to writers on the Roman Empire without naming them; none of these are listed here. Coming Up Next Next, “From Liberal to Liberalism: Helena Rosenblatt on the History of a Word” opens a three-part conversation with the historian Helena Rosenblatt, distinguished professor at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York, on her book The Lost History of Liberalism: From Ancient Rome to the 21st Century. Rosenblatt follows the word liberal from Cicero’s Rome, where she says the Latin liber meant both free and generous, through the Enlightenment and the circle around Madame de Staël and Benjamin Constant after the Terror, where she places the origins of liberalism around 1813. Part One lands in two weeks. Listen & Subscribe Apple Podcasts Spotify YouTube Amazon Music Website — notionsofprogress.com Email: marshall@notionsofprogress.com About the Show Notions of Progress is a podcast tracing ideas of progress from antiquity to the age of artificial intelligence. Hosted by Marshall Madow — an independent researcher whose MA in History (Cambridge) examined Georges Sorel’s epistemology of myth, and whose MSc (Oxford, Saïd Business School) focused on Complexity Science and Leadership — the show surfaces the debates rather than settling them, tracing how thinkers from Hesiod to Hayek, Plato to Peter Haff, have understood what it means for humanity to move forward, at what cost, and for whom. [EMBEDDED YOUTUBE VIDEO] — paste manually in Podpage after publishing. For full transcript, visit: notionsofprogress.com