Prediction Market Movers

Prediction News

Each week, Chris Gerlacher talks to industry insiders, financial analysts and legal experts on all of the latest developments in prediction markets.

  1. 6d ago

    How River Markets is Transforming Prediction Market Trading | Prediction Market Movers

    In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Oscar Levy, founder of River Markets, to discuss how his company is building prime brokerage infrastructure for prediction markets. Oscar explains why liquidity is fragmented across exchanges, how River Markets uses smart order routing to help traders find the best available prices, and why execution quality becomes increasingly important for professional and institutional traders. The conversation dives into multi-venue execution, machine learning for market mapping, slippage reduction, portfolio and risk management, and how River Markets approaches trading across major prediction market platforms. Oscar also explains how professional traders differ from recreational traders, why prediction market contracts require sophisticated execution tools, and how River Markets is designed to optimize trading across multiple exchanges. Chris and Oscar also discuss the future of prediction market infrastructure, the expanding landscape of CFTC-regulated exchanges, Y Combinator, and River Markets' roadmap for supporting additional trading venues and financial products.  👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. Learn More: Prediction News https://predictionnews.com Prediction Edge https://predictionedge.com River Market https://www.rivermarkets.com/ 0:00 - Intro 1:15 - Why fragmented exchanges and River Market? 3:30 - On River Market’s algorithm 4:30 - Protecting customers and resolutions 6:15 - Splitting prices and navigating volatility 8:45 - What strategies are used? 9:45 - Every trader has a process 10:30 - Underrated features of River Market 12:00 - On River Market's forecast models and patterns 14:45 - How safe is River market from disruptions? 15:45 - Risk management products 17:05 - Y-combinator experience 20:00 - Future plans for River Market #PredictionMarkets #RiverMarkets #OscarLevy #PredictionMarketMovers #Kalshi #Polymarket #Trading #Finance #AlgorithmicTrading #MachineLearning #Fintech #CFTC #MarketStructure #Liquidity #PredictionNews

  2. Jul 8

    How Hunter Guo Built a Prediction Market Watchdog | Prediction Market Movers

    Chris Gerlacher welcomes Hunter Guo, founder of Verdict HQ, on Prediction Market Movers to discuss Polymarket resolution risk and how a controversial MicroStrategy Bitcoin market led Hunter to build an independent watchdog for prediction market contracts. Hunter explains how Verdict HQ scores markets using six factors: time clarity, resolution source, outcome definitions, edge cases, and post-trade risk. The goal is to help traders identify contracts that may be difficult to resolve cleanly before they place a trade. The conversation covers ambiguous market wording, UMA voting, and examples from crypto, geopolitics, sports, and breaking news. Chris and Hunter also discuss which types of markets tend to be safer or riskier. They close by talking about the future of prediction markets, including AI-assisted analysis, community reputation features, and why clearer standards and independent oversight matter as the industry grows. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge and the upcoming midterms visit www.predictionedge.com 00:00 - Intro 1:30 - Crypto trading to prediction Markets 3:10 - Getting involved with trading on Polymarket 5:20 - Market resolution incident 11:05 - Launching Verdict 13:30 - Detecting market clarity 17:35 - Which markets are high risk? 20:35 - Upcoming features on Verdict #PredictionMarkets #Polymarket #HunterGuo #PredictionMarketMovers #Crypto #Bitcoin #Blockchain #Kalshi #DeFi #UMA #Forecasting #ElectionMarkets #PredictionNews #Trading #CryptoTrading

  3. Jul 6

    Gaeten Dugas Exposes Spotify Streaming Fraud That Broke Kalshi Markets | Prediction Market Movers

    On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with top 100 Kalshi trader Gaeten Dugas to break down how suspicious Spotify streaming activity allegedly manipulated prediction markets, and what the data reveals about coordinated botting campaigns. The conversation explores how fraudulent Spotify streams affected Kalshi Culture Markets, why Ella Langley appeared destined to win before unexpected market shifts, and how traders identified unusual U.S.-only streaming spikes tied to specific artists. They also discuss the broader implications for prediction markets, market integrity, regulation, and the CFTC, including the growing challenge of third-party manipulation, flawed resolution sources, and what exchanges like Kalshi may need to change moving forward. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge and the 2026 midterms visit www.predictionedge.com 0:00 - Intro 1:30 - Spotify stream market 3:15 - Timeline of issues 24:00 - Kalshi’s resolution 28:05 - Kalshi’s response 30:00 - Spotify’s updated figures 33:30 - How should Kalshi adjust? 36:30 - Cleaning up market resolution 38:45 - 3rd party manipulation #PredictionMarketMovers #PredictionMarkets #Kalshi #Spotify #SpotifyStreams #MarketManipulation #Polymarket #Crypto #StreamingFraud #PredictionNews #Trading #CFTC #MarketIntegrity #MusicIndustry #ElectionMarkets

  4. Jul 1

    SafeBets Wants to Reward Skill, Not Losses | Prediction Market Movers

    Welcome back to Prediction Market Movers! In this episode, Chris Gerlacher sits down with Gina Antoniello of SafeBets to discuss a new approach to prediction markets that rewards users for accurate forecasting without requiring them to risk their own money. Gina explains how SafeBets uses Unicoin, an "accuracy economy," and institutional market intelligence to create a different model from traditional sports betting and prediction platforms. The conversation explores how SafeBets identifies top forecasters, monetizes aggregated prediction data instead of user losses, and approaches consumer protection through product design. Chris and Gina also discuss the role of crypto, regulatory challenges, prediction market innovation, sports betting psychology, academic research at NYU, and the future expansion of prediction markets into politics and other categories. Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge and the 2026 midterms visit www.predictionedge.com 00:00 - Intro 1:15 - How does SafeBets work? 6:30 - Company growth tied to a coin 8:00 - Operating without much regulation 11:00 - Markets insiders and available markets 13:10 - Navigating through an unknown crypto space 19:30 - SafeBets research strategy 22:00 - Utilizing user psychology 24:20 - Response after launching SafeBets 27:45 - Bets outside of sports 30:20 - Are political bets in the future? 31:30 - Sports and politics intersecting   #PredictionMarkets #SafeBets #Crypto #SportsBetting #Web3 #Forecasting #PredictionNews #PredictionMarketMovers #SportsPrediction #Blockchain #CryptoNews #BehavioralEconomics #Unicoin #SportsAnalytics #Fintech

  5. Jun 26

    Inside Professional Prediction Market Trading with Domer | Prediction Market Movers

    Prediction market trader Domer joins host Chris Gerlacher on Prediction Market Movers for an in-depth discussion about the evolution of prediction markets, professional trading strategies, political forecasting, and the future of market resolution. Domer shares his experience trading across hundreds of prediction markets, explains how his approach has evolved since the early PredictIt days, and discusses finding an edge as prediction markets become increasingly efficient. The conversation explores political forecasting, reacting to breaking news, information asymmetry, insider activity, and why understanding market rules is just as important as understanding the underlying event. The episode also takes a deep dive into one of the industry's most debated topics: market resolution. Chris and Domer discuss Polymarket's UMA resolution controversies, Kalshi's centralized resolution process, contract interpretation, prediction market governance, and what improvements could help prediction markets continue to mature. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge and the 2026 midterms visit www.predictionedge.com 00:00 - Intro 1:30 - When the bets get bigger 2:15 - Which markets are for Domer  3:45 - PredictIts model 4:50 - Political trading changes 6:30 Finding an edge 7:30 - Dabbling with new topics and markets 10:00 - Details of a market 11:45 - hasn’t improved 14:00 - Adjusting to the political environment 15:40 - Reading into political movements 20:00 - Signs you’re trading against a pro 22:00 - Pulling back from a market 26:00 - History in unique markets 29:30 - Market resolution 38:00 - non-binary payouts 40:20 - Improving market resolution 43:45 - On Conspectus 47:15 - Future investments #PredictionMarkets #PredictionMarketMovers #PredictionNews #Kalshi #Polymarket #Forecasting #ElectionMarkets #PoliticalForecasting #Trading #SportsPrediction #Crypto #AI #Investing #MarketAnalysis #EventContracts

  6. Jun 17

    Will AI Replace Jobs? Metaculus' Christian Williams Breaks It Down | Prediction Market Movers

    In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Christian Williams of Metaculus to discuss AI forecasting, labor automation, and the future of work. Christian explains how Metaculus differs from traditional prediction market platforms, why reputation-based forecasting can produce valuable insights, and how forecasters approach complex questions involving AI, geopolitics, biosecurity, technological change, and long-term societal trends. The conversation also explores what separates top forecasters from the crowd and how forecasting competitions identify forecasting talent. Chris and Christian take a deep dive into Metaculus' Labor Automation Forecasting Hub, discussing projections for job growth and decline, AI’s impact on occupations, workforce development, unemployment trends, and how policymakers and state governments are beginning to use forecasting tools to prepare for AI-driven economic shifts. The episode also covers AI forecasting competitions, forecasting bots, state-level AI planning, long-term forecasting, and the growing role forecasting platforms may play in helping society navigate the next decade of technological change. 🔔 Subscribe to Prediction News for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com 👍 Like this video and leave a comment: Which profession do you think will be most impacted by AI over the next 10 years? Metaculus features and research: https://www.metaculus.com/midterms-2026/ — live midterms tracker https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/midterms-2026/ — $10k prize pool https://www.metaculus.com/labor-hub/ — AI-and-jobs dashboard https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/labor-hub/ — $35k prize pool https://www.metaculus.com/futureeval/ — AI forecasting benchmark https://www.metaculus.com/futureeval/participate/ — Participate — build-a-bot resources + explainer video: $175k prize pool / yr https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/43357/bot-advice-fall-2025/ (Fall 2025) — what winners did https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/metaculus-cup-summer-2026/ — generalist forecasting, short turnaround, pegged to the news $5k -- Dylan Matthews as current challenger https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/33016/ — $3k+ Save Our Bacon Act and more on animal welfare https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/ — (yearly, now closed) $30k prize pool + recruiting Metaculus Pro Forecasters - https://www.metaculus.com/services/pro-forecasters/ https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/epoch-ai-robotics/ — robotics timelines https://www.metaculus.com/news/ — latest updates https://x.com/metaculus — launches and announcements 00:00 - Intro 1:40 - Why Metaculus? 4:30 - Forecast slider accuracy 6:45 - AI additions 8:40 - AI’s relationship with the next generation 20:45 - What’s next for Metaculus? 24:45 - Lawmakers implementation 25:40 - The future of Robotics and AI 27:00 - Most important questions for Metaculus 30:00 - Credibility of forecasting 31:15 - Limits on AI bots 37:00 - What is scaffolding? #PredictionMarketMovers #ChristianWilliams #Metaculous #AIForecasting #ArtificialIntelligence #FutureOfWork #PredictionMarkets #Forecasting #AIJobs #Automation #Superforecasters #PredictionNews #LaborAutomation #MachineLearning #Economy

  7. Jun 10

    Jan Czarnocki Explains How AI Could Transform Prediction Markets | Prediction Market Movers

    In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with Jan Czarnocki of Elastics AI to explore how artificial intelligence could reshape the future of prediction market trading. Jan explains how Elastics AI is building tools that allow traders to turn market convictions into automated strategies. The conversation dives into the growing intersection of AI, forecasting, and financial markets. Jan discusses the challenges of using large language models in prediction markets, the importance of deterministic execution, and how AI agents can help traders process information, manage positions, and identify opportunities more efficiently. They also discuss prediction market infrastructure, market resolution systems, and the evolving role of automation in trading. Chris and Jan examine where the industry is headed as prediction markets continue to mature. They discuss institutional adoption, the growing demand for market intelligence tools, the role of data in forecasting, and how AI-powered systems may become an essential layer of the prediction market ecosystem. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.predictionnews.com 00:00 - Intro edit read 1:30 - Quants at Goldman Sachs 3:30 - How did this become Elastics Ai 4:45 - Inside Elastics Ai 8:20 - Ai bots hallucinating 12:00 - Why hasn’t Ai caught up to it’s maximum possibility 14:00 - On more specialty markets 16:00 - LLMs becoming the next stage of UI 19:00 - Hardcoding LLMs 20:45 - How will markets evolve? 25:00 - Market Resolution evolution 29:30 - Next steps for Elastic Ai #PredictionMarkets #PredictionMarketMovers #AIAgents #Kalshi #Polymarket #ElasticsAI #Forecasting #QuantTrading #ArtificialIntelligence #Fintech #PredictionNews

  8. Jun 9

    Ed Silva on DraftKings, Political Trading & Prediction Market Data | Prediction Market Movers

    Ed Silva joins Prediction Market Movers to discuss his decade at DraftKings, the evolution of sports betting, and how those lessons apply to the rapidly growing prediction market industry. Ed explains the similarities and differences between sports bettors and political traders, liquidity challenges, and why prediction markets still feel like an early-stage industry. The conversation explores prediction market data, election forecasting, user behavior, prediction market infrastructure, and how traders can identify signal in increasingly complex markets. Ed also discusses the challenges of building data products for politics compared to sports, where decades of data already exist. Chris Gerlacher and Ed Silva also break down the future of Prediction Edge, how polling, fundraising, endorsements, and prediction market odds can be combined into actionable insights, and why data-driven election analysis could become one of the most important use cases for prediction markets ahead of the 2026 midterms and beyond. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge visit www.predictionedge.com 00:00 - Intro 1:30 - Time at DraftKings 2:30 - Being on the founder side 3:30 - Going sports to politics 5:30 - Difference between sports and political trading 7:00 - Square trading in politics 10:50 - Price sensitive sports betters 12:30 - Response to Kalish’s tweets 16:45 - How has data been underutilized in the PM industry? 19:00 - What’s missing in prediction markets? 20:30 - Prediction Edge 22:30 - Features on Prediction Edge 25:50 - Screening out bad data   #PredictionMarkets #PredictionMarketMovers #Kalshi #Polymarket #DraftKings #ElectionForecasting #PoliticalBetting #PredictionEdge #SportsBetting #Trading

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About

Each week, Chris Gerlacher talks to industry insiders, financial analysts and legal experts on all of the latest developments in prediction markets.

Information

  • Creator
    Prediction News
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    36
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Prediction News
  • Show Website
    Prediction Market Movers

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