Oils and Fats Podcast

Vesper
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Join Gehrman Kosenkov and Maria Cruz, Vesper’s vegetable oils experts, for our bi-weekly Oils and Fats series. Each session dives into price dynamics and trends across palm, soybean, sunflower, rapeseed, and coconut oils, while also unpacking the latest trade flows and sharing forecasts to help you anticipate what’s next in the market. *These video's are part of our bi-weekly webinar series. Want to join our live, interactive session? Sign up free at ⁠vespertool.com/webinars⁠

  1. Oct 14

    Oct. 13, 2026 - Vegetable oils market outlook/ from palm oil surpluses to sunflower oil supply risks

    Malaysian palm oil stocks rose 24.5% in September, but the market had already priced it in. Sunflower oil is rebounding as Black Sea ceasefire hopes fade.Gehrman Kosenkov, Vesper's oils & fats analyst, and Feiko Keilholz go through the whole veg oil complex. In palm oil, funds seem to have found the bottom and India is buying at lower prices, while Indonesian stocks sit at historically low levels and the market looks ahead to a smaller 2027 crop. In soybeans, a delayed US harvest and very long fund positions are keeping prices high, and higher US biofuel mandates could lift soybean oil demand in 2027. In sunflower oil, lower Black Sea exports and a slow season in Argentina keep the market tight. We close on coconut oil and palm kernel oil, and on a proposed 1% SAF blend in the Philippines by 2030.We also announce our new partnership with Noble Ag, whose US market reports will be published on the Vesper platform.This episode is part of our biweekly webinar series. Want timely market intelligence and the opportunity to ask questions live?Register for free and watch more webinars at vespertool.com/webinars.

  2. Oct 1

    Sep. 29, 2026 - Trump-Xi outcome, geopolitics and the veg oil S&D outlook

    The Trump-Xi meeting brought no tariff cut on US soybeans and no new Chinese buying commitments. Palm oil dropped on expectations of a looser Malaysian balance.In week 40 we went through the whole veg oil complex. Malaysian palm stocks could exceed 3.1 million tons by the end of September, with MPOA reporting production up 19% in the first 20 days of the month compared with August, and cargo surveyors putting exports for the first 25 days down 15%. Production is still expected to decline sharply between November and February, especially in Indonesia. Indonesia's parliament also passed an agrarian reform law on September 22, with talk that plantation businesses may need to make 20% of their land available or share an equivalent 20% of profit.In soybeans, China kept its 13% import duty on US beans against 3% for Brazil, so private Chinese buyers keep favoring Brazilian origin. With funds very long and the US harvest progressing, Gehrman sees a possible liquidation that could weigh on CBOT soybeans and Chicago soybean oil, even with strong US biofuel demand underneath.Euronext rapeseed followed soy lower and Coceral raised its EU plus UK crop estimate to 21.3 million tons, while low Rhine water levels, the blocked Black Sea and a possible 10 to 15% cut in French planting area keep bullish risks in play. Sunflower oil keeps easing on ceasefire headlines and a good harvest, even though Russia produced only around 300,000 tons of sunflower oil in August against a 450,000-ton average. We closed on palm kernel and coconut oil, and on an olive oil market already trading near producers' break-even ahead of a large Spanish crop.Hosted by Gehrman Kosenkov, Vesper's oils & fats analyst, with Gabriela Arroyo, veg oil expert.This episode is part of our biweekly webinar series. Want timely market intelligence and the opportunity to ask questions live?Register for free and watch more webinars at vespertool.com/webinars.

  3. Sep 2

    Sep. 1, 2026 - Palm, soy and canola: reading a week of EPA news and trade tension

    GAPKI says El Niño could take up to 3 million tons out of next season's CPO production. The palm curve promptly split in two.In week 36 we went through the whole veg oil complex. Deferred palm contracts repriced on the GAPKI statement, which sits above what other industry bodies and analytical agencies have published, while the front of the curve stayed comfortable on flat-to-higher Malaysian August stocks. Indonesia's new export monitoring system went live on September 1, covering export data, pricing, destinations and the repatriation of export proceeds, with admin fees and any early delays still unknown.In the US, the EPA granted many more small refinery exemptions than the market anticipated, which either removes biodiesel demand or puts it on hold. The reallocation of those volumes to larger refineries is still a proposal, RIN generation has been running short of the pace the mandate needs, and there is speculation the mandate itself could be lowered. Canada feels that directly, since almost all of its canola oil goes to the US.Europe is leaning harder on imports. The EU Commission trimmed its rapeseed crop forecast while raising imports, Ukrainian volumes are well below last season on Black Sea logistics, and drought in Western Europe and Ukraine is complicating the current planting window. Sunflower oil keeps easing regardless, because importers have decided to wait for restored shipping and some form of deal. Gehrman's caution is that the longer the disruption persists the worse it will be, and the price will reverse at some point.Hosted by Gehrman Kosenkov, Vesper's oils & fats analyst, with Feiko Keilholz.This episode is part of our biweekly webinar series. Want timely market intelligence and the opportunity to ask questions live?Register for free and watch more webinars at vespertool.com/webinars.

  4. Aug 18

    Aug. 18, 2026 – Weather, logistics and geopolitics: reading the oils and fats market

    Gabriela and Gehrman review key vegetable oil markets, focusing on rallying palm oil forward prices versus softer spot prices. They attribute forward strength to rising energy prices, El Niño concerns, lower palm production forecasts for H2 2026 and 2027, and fund speculation, while spot is capped by high Malaysian stocks and recovered Indian stocks. They expect short-term profit-taking but continued support, with Q4 bullish risks from potential weaker Indonesian production (El Niño, lower fertilizer use, land seizures, high diesel), Indonesia’s October P50 sales, and government price-setting procedures. Matif rapeseed rises on disrupted Ukrainian logistics, Danube constraints, low river levels, higher transport costs, and dry-soil planting risks. Sunflower oil prices fall despite logistics issues due to crop expectations and Europe-focused flows; Asia may shift to other oils if disruptions persist. Soybean oil and soy rebound on higher Brent, strong US crush with falling soy oil stocks, and Chinese buying. Coconut oil and PKO rebound but are expected mostly sideways to slightly up, with floors supported by spreads, El Niño risk, and possible Philippine biodiesel mandate changes.

  5. Aug 4

    Aug. 04, 2026 - Geopolitical nerves, a muted palm oil, and the crop watch ahead

    Gabriela and Gehrman introduce Vesper’s new home screen and “Connect the Dots” feature that summarizes weekly price moves, news, and machine-learning forecasts with bull/bear drivers. They discuss escalating logistics disruptions: attacks in the Black Sea limiting deep-sea exports of sunflower oil, rapeseed, wheat and corn, keeping sunflower oil firm and raising concern for September–October shipments; and low Rhine and Danube river levels increasing barge costs and threatening irrigation and yields in Romania. In energy markets, Brent falls below $84 after Donald Trump calls off a planned strike on Iran and announces renewed negotiations, though Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab traffic remains low, pressuring most oils. Weather risks include EU heat, MARS yield cuts, and El Niño expected strongest Sep–Jan, with MPOB estimating late-2027 palm output down 10–14%. They review palm oil’s July supply/stocks rise, support from India demand and Indonesia B50, lauric oils tied to copra dynamics, soybean oil weakness from lower Brent and improved US rains amid China buying uncertainty, and rapeseed oil pressured by Brent but supported by Black Sea, EU logistics costs, and potential tighter Canadian exports due to US biofuel demand.

  6. Jul 22

    Jul 22, 2026 - Brent rally versus record palm stocks: where veg oils go next

    In a bi-weekly Oils and Fats webinar, analyst Ermin and host Gabriela review key market drivers across energy and vegetable oils. Brent crude rises to about $91–$93/bbl amid escalating Middle East shipping risks (Bab al-Mandab, Hormuz traffic declines), supporting veg oils. Indonesia will start a state-led export governance/data system on Sept. 1 as a commitment ahead of tighter “phase two” export channeling expected in January. Palm oil supply looked comfortable in H1 with strong early-year output and Indonesian/Malaysian stocks, but agencies warn H2 and 2027 could tighten due to El Niño, higher input costs, and policy-related investment risks. US tariffs on Brazilian tallow increase to 25%, supporting Chicago soybean oil alongside strong NOPA crush and lower soy oil stocks. Rapeseed prices hit multi-year highs on European heat, forecast cuts, Black Sea disruptions, and Australia El Niño risk. Sunflower oil gains but is capped by hopes for a larger upcoming crop; Europe remains tight due to weak Ukraine/Europe production despite improved Russian output. Coconut oil rebounds with volatile copra; PKO stays firm, and traders add EUDR premiums to Q4 PKO quotes.

  7. Jul 7

    Jul 7, 2026 - Does a bearish energy market mean bearish veg oils?

    In a bi-weekly oils and fats webinar, Vesper’s veg oils analyst reviews June supply-demand and key price drivers across markets. For palm oil, estimates suggest Malaysian stocks rose 3–5% in June, with production up 7–11% and exports up 14–17%, keeping stocks historically high and pressuring prices alongside weaker Brent and delays to Indonesia’s B50 rollout. Brent futures fell to just under $72/bbl as Strait of Hormuz flows recover and OPEC+ signals higher output; recent attacks did not spike prices. Indonesia’s B50 is now expected to start around October after a transition period, implying a more sideways-to-slightly-up Q3 outlook supported by Indian festive demand and El Niño concerns. Soybean oil fell on reduced biofuel feedstock share (EIA) but rebounded on Chinese buying and US heat/dryness forecasts. Crop updates include record Canadian canola area, tighter EU rapeseed prospects, and higher sunflower production expectations in Russia/Ukraine with weather risks. Coconut oil prices bottomed and rebounded on higher copra costs, supply tightness, typhoon/El Niño risk, and possible Philippines B5; Q4 lauric oils carry upside risk due to seasonal production/crushing declines.

  8. Jun 23

    Jun 17, 2026 - Energy, Indonesia’s export centralization, and the crop outlook

    Brent has slipped to its lowest in weeks, yet vegetable oils have not fallen as far. The question is what comes next.A fragile Middle East ceasefire and a reopening Strait of Hormuz have pulled energy lower, while palm, soy, rapeseed and sunflower oils are holding more of their ground. At the same time, Indonesia’s move to route strategic exports through a new central body is reshaping how the world’s largest palm supplier reaches the market, and exporters are already adjusting. With a strong El Niño now declared, the crop outlook for palm, canola and Black Sea sunflower is far from settled.In this session you will get:• Where energy and veg oils are pulling apart, and what that tension means for price direction•️ The latest on Indonesia’s export centralisation and how it could move supply• A read on the crop outlook into the new season, El Niño included

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About

Join Gehrman Kosenkov and Maria Cruz, Vesper’s vegetable oils experts, for our bi-weekly Oils and Fats series. Each session dives into price dynamics and trends across palm, soybean, sunflower, rapeseed, and coconut oils, while also unpacking the latest trade flows and sharing forecasts to help you anticipate what’s next in the market. *These video's are part of our bi-weekly webinar series. Want to join our live, interactive session? Sign up free at ⁠vespertool.com/webinars⁠

Information

  • Creator
    Vesper
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    18
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Vesper
  • Show Website
    Oils and Fats Podcast