Your security team is watching the front door, and 75% of your retail losses are leaking out somewhere else. In this week's Retail Reality Check, host Claire walks through the new IHL Group and Sensormatic Beyond Shrink study, which found that one administrative error costs $103.40, almost the same as the $107 average for an employee theft. External theft and organized retail crime make up 25% of retail losses, the largest single source. The other 75% sits in supply chains, returns, e-commerce fulfillment and administration. Supply chain losses alone reach 33%, return fraud rose for 68% of retailers, and retailers still rank fraud prevention fifth among seven loss measures. The study drew on responses from 915 retail decision-makers. Then we look at five retailers working on the problem: Cosentino's Food Stores with Axon body cameras and Auror, Kroger with RFID in its bakery, Ahold Delhaize USA with NCR Voyix, and Estée Lauder with Microsoft. A 12-item lightning round follows. Retail Agent Con, the free half-day conference on November 17, 2026, is also covered at the top of the show. Shoplifting and organized retail crime are 25% of retail losses. The other 75% sits in supply chains, returns, e-commerce fulfillment and administration. One administrative error costs $103.40, almost the same as the $107 average for an employee theft. Supply chain losses reach 33%, and return fraud rose for 68% of retailers. Among the largest retailers, 71% reported increased shoplifting, compared with 28% of the smallest. Retailers spending more than 2% of sales on loss prevention were the only group reporting more declines than increases across loss categories. Kroger's RFID bakery pilot delivered nearly 70% faster inventory counts and 50% less waste, with a 98% read rate. Retailers deploying AI and machine learning in inventory-critical applications achieve 2.3 times the sales growth and 2.5 times the profit growth of competitors that do not. Greg Buzek set up this week's theme in the release for the Beyond Shrink study. His point: external theft and shoplifting is real and rising globally, but it is not where the majority of loss dollars go, so retailers need to examine losses across the entire business. Connect: ihlservices.com 00:00 - Cold open: the front door versus the 75%00:21 - Welcome to Retail Reality Check00:44 - Retail Agent Con, November 17, 202601:07 - Greg Buzek and the Beyond Shrink study01:41 - The numbers: 25% external theft, 75% everywhere else02:32 - Organized retail crime and the $142 billion shrink problem03:02 - Cosentino's Food Stores, Axon body cameras and Auror03:51 - Kroger's RFID bakery pilot04:20 - IHL's RFID payoff data and Ahold Delhaize USA with NCR Voyix05:32 - Estée Lauder and Microsoft: the data foundation06:03 - What the five stories have in common06:36 - Lightning round: Walmart, Amazon, P&Co, Accor, B&Q and more08:48 - Question to take back to your team09:14 - Closing Research and studies IHL Group and Sensormatic Beyond Shrink study (ihlservices.com) IHL midmarket research on legacy POS systems and IT budgets IHL research on RFID profit growth and AI in retail Loss Prevention Research Council 60-day repeat offender study Companies and vendors named Retailers: Cosentino's Food Stores, Kroger, Ahold Delhaize USA, Estée Lauder, Walmart, Amazon, P&Co, Central Park St. Pete Food Hall, Your Retail Coach, Accor, Auchan Romania, B&Q, Nash & Smashed, JINS, WHSmith, Lowes Foods Vendors: Axon, Auror, NCR Voyix, Microsoft, Symbotic, Reveni, Epson, Kluck, IDeaS, shopreme, Hanshow, Google, Deliveroo, Qu, Adyen, Wildix, Flashfood
