The ELEVEN: US Markets

The ELEVEN
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A fast-paced, weekly round-up, for this week of the US and global markets, covering 11 critical news items.

Episodes

  1. 6d ago

    CHIPS ARE DOWN - When AI Hits a Speed Bump

    THE ELEVEN: US Markets, Episode 10 - June 2 to June 6, 2026 🔑 Key Themes & Analysis The AI Repricing: Broadcom beat earnings but held guidance flat, and the market took a trillion dollars off chips in two days. The AI trade isn’t over, but the ‘buy everything with silicon’ era is. Quality AI revenue generators will be rewarded. Narrative-driven names will be punished. Jobs Beat = Rate Hike Risk: May payrolls at 172,000, more than double the 80,000 consensus. With inflation already at 3.8%, a strong jobs print complicates the Fed’s calculus and raises December rate hike odds to roughly 40%. Warsh’s Opening Act: The new Fed Chair steps into his first FOMC meeting June 16-17 with inflation above target, a divided committee, and a market still processing a tech shock. His language at the press conference will set the tone for H2 2026. SpaceX: Event of the Decade: A $75 billion raise at $1.75 trillion valuation. The largest IPO in history. Retail gets 30%. Starlink is the engine. The week of June 8 is a market catalyst regardless of broader conditions. Iran -Still Unresolved: The ceasefire holds, but barely. Talks stalled on enrichment, missiles, and the Strait. Every week this drags is another week of elevated energy costs embedded in global inflation.

    14 min

  2. Jun 1

    DEAL OR NO DEAL - The Peace Rally That's Playing Chicken With Inflation

    THE ELEVEN: US Markets - Episode 9 | Week 22 | 26-30 May2026 | 'DEAL OR NO DEAL'  The S&P 500 extended its winning streak to nine consecutive weeks, closing May at a record 7,580 while the Dow Jones crossed 51,000 for the first time. The Nasdaq surged 8% in May alone, driven by one of the most consequential AI earnings weeks of 2026.  This episode covers: Dell Technologies' record 33% single-daysurge on AI server revenue growth of 757% year-over-year and a $9.7 billion Pentagon contract. Micron Technology crossing $1 trillion in market cap, up tenfold in 12 months on AI memory chip demand. Snowflake's AI platform inflection point and Palantir's 10% rally on partnership validation.Robinhood's launch of Agentic Trading - AI models executing stock trades on retail investors' behalf. The tentative US-Iran 60-day ceasefire MOU and why Trump's final approval decision this weekend could move oil markets on Monday. Brentcrude's worst monthly performance since Covid, down 19% in May on peace hopes.New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh facing stagflation risk, Fed minutes showing rate-hike discussions, and the critical June 16-17 FOMC meeting. European GDP contraction forecasts, Asian AI export boom, and gold's persistent safe-haven strength above $4,500. Key Themes - Week 22 The Peace Trade vs The Inflation Reality:  Markets are rallying on the prospect of an Iran deal that isn't yet signed. Brent fell19% in May. But oil infrastructure in the Gulf is damaged, mines need clearing, and tanker logistics need rebuilding. Even in a best-case peace scenario, energy prices normalise slowly , the inflation wound from three months of Hormuz closure doesn't heal overnight.  AI Hardware Is No Longer Speculative:  Dell's 757% AI server revenue growth and Micron's trillion-dollar market cap are backed by real orders and sold-out supply chains. The AI buildout is the largest infrastructure expansion in history, per Nvidia's CEO. The risk is not whether the demand is real- it is. The risk is whether equity valuations have already priced in years of future growth.  The Warsh Dilemma:  The new Fed chair wants lowerrates. Trump wants lower rates. But inflation is near 4% - double the Fed's target and the Fed's own meeting minutes show a majority of officials think rate hikes may be needed. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting is the most consequential in years. Watch the dot plot.  Agentic Finance Arrives:  Robinhood's launch of AI-poweredtrading and spending tools is a genuine structural shift, not just for Robinhood, but for the entire retail brokerage industry. The regulatory framework for AI-executed trades is still being written. The accountability gap your AI makes the trade, you own the loss is a risk most retail investors haven't fully thought through.

    16 min

  3. May 25

    DEAL OR NO DEAL - The Market Holds Its Breath

    THE ELEVEN: US Markets | Episode 8 : "DEAL OR NO DEAL - The Market Holds Its Breath"  Key Themes - THE DEAL THAT CHANGES EVERYTHING: Trump announced Saturday that a US-Iran peace deal is 'largely negotiated.' If signed and if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, oil prices fall, inflation pressure eases, the Fed gets breathing room, and equities could rally hard. But key sticking points - Iran's nuclear programme, sanctions, and uranium, remain unresolved. Watch Monday morning.THE BOND MARKET IS SCREAMING: The 30-year Treasury yield sat above 5% mid-week, a level last seen in 2007.Moody's just downgraded US debt. Congress just passed a bill adding $3.8 trillion to the deficit. The bond market is sending a clear fiscal warning that equities are choosing to ignore, for now.NVIDIA IS THE AI ECONOMY: $81.6B in Q1 revenue, $91B guided for Q2. The AI infrastructure buildout is the most powerful structural force in markets. But investors must separate companies with real AI revenue from pure narrative plays. Nvidia itself proved this week that even perfection isn't enough to avoid a sell-the-news reaction.EIGHT WEEKS UP- BUT NOT WITHOUT CRACKS: The S&P's 8-week winning streak is impressive but was tested by volatile sessions mid-week. Fear & Greed has flipped toGreed after weeks in Fear. That sentiment turnaround creates vulnerability-complacency is the enemy of portfolio protection.

    15 min

  4. May 18

    THE WARSH FACTOR - New Chair, Hot Inflation, and the AI Gold Rush

    THE ELEVEN: US Markets: Week 20, May 12-17, 2026 The Warsh Factor: A new Fed chair inheriting 3.8% inflationand an energy shock. Hawkish by instinct but open to cuts if inflation falls. With CPI this hot, that flexibility is theoretical. Watch his first public comments closely. AI Boom vs. Energy Shock: The Cerebras IPO illustrates thebifurcation , AI infrastructure is real and growing fast. But the same economy faces energy-driven inflation that could force rate hikes. These forces are on a collision course. The Stagflation Watch: Real wages now negative. Goldman,Moody's, and OECD all have recession/stagflation probabilities above 30%. The Fed is frozen between high inflation and slowing growth. Trump-Xi: Deferred, Not Resolved: The hardest issues -tariffs, chips, Taiwan, kicked to September and beyond. Uncertainty premium stays in the market until then.

    15 min

  5. May 11

    ALL-TIME HIGHS, HALF-TIME PEACE!!

    Episode 6 | Week 19 | May 4 – May 8, 2026  The Teflon Market: Six straight weekly gains for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, the longest streak since 2024, driven entirely by strong corporate earnings. The market is choosing profits over geopolitics, at least for now. The Iran Halfway Point: Operation Epic Fury is officially concluded, a deal framework is emerging : 12-15 yearnuclear enrichment moratorium in exchange for sanctions relief and Hormuz reopening, but no signatures yet. Oil is down from $111 to $95, but the Strait is still partially blockaded. The Fed Transition: Powell's era ends May 15th. Warsh is expected to be confirmed this week. His first FOMC meeting is June 17th. The market expects a more dovish stance. The risk: cutting too early into still-elevated inflation repeats the errors of 2021–22. CPI Tuesday: April CPI on May 12th is the single most important data point of the month. Above 3.2% = yields jump, tech sells off. Below 3.0% = risk-on rally, rate cut hopes revive.Watch core CPI especially, if services inflation is rising, it's not just an oil shock anymore. Trump-Xi Summit: May 14-15 in Beijing. Iran will dominate. Boeing aircraft purchases and soybean commitments expected. A 'Board of Trade' managed framework is on the table.Don't expect a tariff breakthrough; but don't underestimate the oil diplomacy angle. This week in THE ELEVEN: Markets just posted their sixth consecutive weekly gain, with the S&P 500 closing at a record 7,399 and theNasdaq surging 4.5% to 26,247. But record highs are only part of the story.Johan Durden and Tyla Didrikson unpack what's really driving this rally and what could derail it. This week's eleven stories cover: the April jobs report beat (115K vs 55K forecast), AMD's revenue surprise, Datadog's 28% surge on AI cloud demand, Corning's Nvidia supply deal, a fresh low in US consumer confidence (48.2), the Federal Reserve's final meeting under Jerome Powell, Kevin Warsh's imminent confirmation as the new Fed Chair, the Iran ceasefire progress and the emerging nuclear deal framework, oil pricesfalling from $111 to $95, the upcoming Trump-Xi summit in Beijing (May 14-15), and why Tuesday's April CPI print could set the tone for the entire summer. Whether you're managing a portfolio or just trying to understand what's moving markets this week, THE ELEVEN gives you real analysis in real time : No jargon, No padding, No agenda!

    8 min

  6. May 4

    MAG 7 COMET — Records, Reads & a Fed Farewell

    Episode 5 | Week 18 | April 28 – May 2, 2026  This week Wall Street hit record highs: S&P 500 and Nasdaq both at all-time closes, even as oil spiked toward multi-year records and the Strait of Hormuz remained 90% shut. The Engine: a blowout Magnificent Seven earnings week. Meta revenue +33%, Apple posted its best March quarter ever and a $100 billion buyback, AWS grew 28%, Alphabet's Search accelerated. S&P earnings growth is now tracking at 27.8% for Q1 , the strongest since 2021. Johan and Tyla break it all down in eight tight minutes. Plus: Jerome Powell's dramatic final Fed meeting, a rare 4-way FOMC dissent, Kevin Warsh's path to the chairmanship, the UAE's seismic OPEC exit, Iran's 14-point peace proposal, SpaceX's confirmed June IPO targeting $1.75T, and what OpenAI's revenue miss means for the AI investment thesis. Looking ahead: May 8 jobs report, May 13 CPI, and the Hormuz deal that could change everything. THE ELEVEN: US Markets - Eleven stories, Zero fluff!!

    9 min

  7. Apr 27

    All-Time High, All-Time Anxiety!!

    THE ELEVEN: US Markets | Ep. 4| "ALL-TIME HIGH, ALL-TIME ANXIETY" Week 17| April 21–25, 2026 Records on Wall Street. Dread on Main Street. This week the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both hit all-time highs — and yet consumer confidence just hit its lowest level in history. Johan and Tyla break down the paradox, the earnings fireworks, and the most consequential data week of 2026 that starts right now. Why this episode matters: The data week starting April 28th - FOMC decision, Big Tech Q1 results, and the first GDP print of 2026 will set the tone for the entire second half of the year. This episode is your complete briefing before it all lands. THE ELEVEN is your essential weekly US markets briefing Eleven critical stories, sharp analysis, zero fluff. New episodes every week. ⚠️ For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always consult a qualified financial professional. This episode was produced with AI assistance for data research and synthesis.

    10 min

  8. Apr 20

    OPEN FOR BUSINESS — The Week Wall Street Rewrote Its Record

    THE ELEVEN: US Markets | Ep. 3| "OPEN FOR BUSINESS — The Week Wall Street Rewrote Its Record Book" Week 16| April 14–18, 2026 One of the most dramatic and consequential weeks of the year. The S&P 500 surged 4.5% to close above 7,100 for the first time in history, the Nasdaq posted an 11-day winning streak unseen since 1992, and the Dow recouped all its Iran war losses in a single week. Johan Durden and Tyla Didrikson cover: the Strait of Hormuz partial opening and its market impact, WTI crude's collapse from $111 to under $84, Goldman Sachs's record equities trading quarter ($5.33B, +27% YoY), TSMC's blowout Q1 results ($35.9B revenue, 66% gross margin), BlackRock's AUM surging to $13.89 trillion, March CPI printing 3.3% headline but a tame 2.6% core, gold approaching $4,900/oz with JPMorgan targeting $5,000 by Q4, the Live Nation antitrust verdict, and the safe haven regime shift identified by UBS strategists. The week ahead preview covers: US-Iran talks in Pakistan (Monday), Tesla Q1 earnings on April 22nd, March PCE on April 26th, and the pivotal Fed FOMC meeting April 28th–29th.

    19 min

  9. Apr 12

    The Deal That Wasn't

    THE ELEVEN: US Markets | Ep. 2 | "The Deal That Wasn't" Week 15 | April 7–11, 2026 The market got its ceasefire, then got blindsided. This week on THE ELEVEN, Johan Durden and Tyla Didirikson breakdown one of the most volatile weeks of 2026: the Dow's best single session in a year, WTI oil's biggest daily crash since 2020, and a March CPI print hitting a two-year high of 3.3%. Then, Sunday night, the Islamabad peace talks betweenthe US and Iran collapsed after 21 hours. VP Vance left without a deal. The ceasefire expires April 22nd. Monday is going to be interesting. In under 15 minutes: S&P 500 weekly recap| Iran ceasefire market impact | oil price outlook | CPI & Fed ratedecision preview | Delta Air Lines Q1 earnings | private credit crisis (Carlyle, Blue Owl, Apollo) | TSMC AI chip demand |JPMorgan earnings setup |Tesla Q1 preview | FOMC April 29th. Your fastest weekly fix for US stock market news, macro analysis, and what to watch next week. 🔔 Subscribe.New episode every week.

    19 min

  10. Apr 6

    FIRST BLOOD — The Bull Blinks Back

    THE ELEVEN: US Markets | Ep. 1 — "First Blood: The Bull Blinks Back"Week 14 | March 30 – April 4, 2026 The bulls finally showed up — but is it a recovery or just a bounce? In our debut episode, Johan Durden and Tyla Didrikson break down the week Wall Street snapped a six-week losing streak, with the S&P 500 posting its best weekly gain in four months. But don't pop the champagne yet. This week: oil at $111 a barrel, a Strait of Hormuz that's effectively closed, a Fed caught between inflation and recession, Tesla's worst delivery miss of 2026, Coinbase making crypto history, and a private credit story quietly building in the background that nobody's talking about loudly enough. Eleven stories. Real analysis. Zero fluff. 🔑 This week's big themes: Iran war energy shock · S&P technical levels to watch · Fed rate hike odds cross 50% · Goldman vs. BofA on rate cuts · Tesla delivery miss decoded · SpaceX IPO filing · CPI on April 10th & why it changes everything 🎙️ Hosted by Johan Durden & Tyla Didrikson For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

    25 min
  • 10 Episodes

About

A fast-paced, weekly round-up, for this week of the US and global markets, covering 11 critical news items.

Information

  • Creator
    The ELEVEN
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    10
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © The ELEVEN
  • Show Website
    The ELEVEN: US Markets