The PredictIt Podcast

PredictIt
  • 5.0 (6)
  • Politics

The PredictIt Podcast is your weekly deep dive into political prediction markets — election odds, market prices, and the trades behind the biggest stories in American politics. Hosts Jacob Studwell and Garth Juckem, two prediction market veterans, break down what's moving on PredictIt every week: Senate and House races, primaries, presidential politics, polling vs. market prices, and where traders are finding value. No punditry, no partisanship — just a strictly-business read on political markets, contracts, and prices. If you want to know what election betting markets are really saying about the 2026 midterms, the 2028 presidential race, and every race in between, this is the best prediction market analysis available in podcast form. New episodes Wednesday weekly. Follow us on X @PredictItPod and YouTube @predictitofficial. Trade the markets at PredictIt.org.

  1. 4d ago

    We Can't Stop Watching This AI Attack Ad

    An AI-generated attack ad against James Fishback aired during the World Cup final and it's so absurd we watched it three times! Jacob and Garth break down why AI ads are about to be everywhere in 2028, who's actually behind this one, and whether the "$10 million ad buy" claim passes the smell test. (Actual ad here: https://x.com/TeamFishback/status/2078957886403670411/video/1) Then the real news: Lindsey Graham's sister, Darline Graham Nordone, has been sworn in to finish his term — but the August 11 special primary is where it gets interesting. Traders have her at 67 cents against Russell Fry and Ralph Norman, and the guys debate whether a Trump endorsement plus the family name makes her inevitable or whether this primary blows up. Plus: Troy Jackson leads Susan Collins 49-46 in the first Maine poll since Platner's exit (don't run away with it), AOC won't rule out 2028 and Jacob calls her 55-cent "runs for president" contract the bargain of the week, and the fundraising numbers that should terrify Republicans: Talarico's $54.5M to Paxton's $3.9M in Texas, Ossoff sitting on a mountain in Georgia. Chapters: 00:00 The AI attack ad (watch #1) 06:50 Arizona primary results 07:40 Graham's seat: Darline, Fry, Norman and the Aug 11 primary 17:12 Maine: Troy Jackson's first poll vs. Collins 20:35 AOC and the 2028 market 22:30 Fundraising blowouts: Texas, Georgia, Alaska 25:40 The ad, one more time (watch #3) Full episode also on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and iHeart. Markets on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026 #AIAds #LindseyGraham #PredictionMarkets

  2. Jul 15

    Is the Socialist Wave Finally Cracking in Michigan?

    Two weeks ago Abdul El-Sayed was trading at 93 cents to win Michigan's Democratic Senate primary. He's now at 63. Jacob and Garth break down what changed: McMorrow's exit turned it into a clean head-to-head, a fresh Tavern Research poll has Stevens up a point (a statistical tie), and the outside money keeps pouring in. Is the progressive wave that swept New York and Colorado finally hitting resistance, or do the August 4 demographics still favor El-Sayed? Plus the trade the guys made from 6 cents and why they're saying take the profit now. Then: the Iran escalation is pushing gas toward $4 a gallon, and why that makes the House market (Democrats at 77 cents) Jacob's biggest buy of the day. Florida's wide-open governor primary and the AI-generated Fishback ad. Schumer stepping back from the Maine replacement fight. And a tangent on why the deepest political benches always seem to belong to the teams that keep losing. Market reads inside: Michigan, the House, and Senate control. Full episode also on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and iHeart. Markets on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026 #Michigan #Senate2026 #PredictionMarkets

  3. Jul 8

    Platner Implodes and McConnell Vanishes

    The Senate map just got scrambled in a single week. Graham Platner's Maine campaign implodes after a sexual assault allegation, and nearly every Democrat who backed him is now calling for him to step aside before the July 13 deadline. Jacob and Garth break down who replaces him (Troy Jackson? Janet Mills?) and whether Susan Collins is now the safest incumbent on the board. Then: Michigan tightens dramatically after McMorrow drops out, with a fresh poll showing El-Sayed and Stevens nearly tied heading into the August 4 primary. Plus the Mitch McConnell health mystery and what a Kentucky opening could mean for control of the chamber, Ken Paxton spending July 4th in London, and why the World Cup turned into a political headache for Trump. All the market reads inside: where PredictIt traders have Maine, Michigan, and Senate control right now. Full episode also on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and iHeart. Markets on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026 #Senate2026 #Platner #PredictionMarkets

  4. Jul 1

    Which Senate Races Are the Polls Getting Wrong?

    It's a full Senate polling roundup — every race that matters, poll by poll, checked against where PredictIt traders actually have the money. Texas is a dead heat: Paxton and Talarico tied 47-47 in the NYT/Siena poll, with real signs of Paxton weakness under the surface. Maine tells a different story — Collins holds a steady edge while Platner's campaign gets buried under a staggering outside-money gap ($4.3M vs $440K in a five-day span). Michigan's Democratic primary is effectively over, with El-Sayed running away and traders having already called it. Plus, a Florida poll that traders think is flat-out fake, the generic ballot tightening toward Republicans, and why Jacob likes buying Republican on the Senate control market right now. Then: Garth's case that the smartest Democratic play heading into August is to get out of the way and let Trump be Trump. Chapters: 00:00 Colorado results and the anti-incumbent wave 06:30 SCOTUS: Alito retirement watch + FECA caps overturned 15:40 Texas Senate: Paxton vs. Talarico (dead heat) 22:45 Maine: Collins vs. Platner and the money bomb 30:20 Michigan: El-Sayed, Stevens, McMorrow 35:00 Generic ballot + the Senate control market read Full episode also on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and iHeart. Markets on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026 #Senate2026 #Polling #PredictionMarkets

  5. Jun 24

    Mamdani Sweeps New York

    Mamdani went 3-for-3 last night — sweeping all three New York City congressional primaries and ousting two incumbents, including Hakeem Jeffries-backed Adriano Espaillat in NY-13. Brad Lander flattened Dan Goldman in NY-10. Claire Valdez dominated Antonio Reynoso in NY-7. The left now has a kingmaker. But the real result nobody is covering: Cait Conley in NY-17 — the West Point grad, former NSC counterterrorism director, and MIT/Harvard alum who just became the Democrats' best shot at flipping a swing seat in November. In this episode of The PredictIt Podcast, Jacob Studwell and Garth Juckem cover: 00:00 — Mamdani sweeps NYC: Brad Lander, Claire Valdez, and Darializa Avila Chevalier all win 08:00 — NY-17: Cait Conley wins — Democrats at 87¢ to flip Mike Lawler's seat 12:00 — NY-12: Micah Lasher beats Alex Bores, Schlossberg hits 11%, Conway at 6% 16:00 — The Iran deal is in the garbage — and we called Israel as the wildcard last week 20:00 — War powers resolution passes the Senate: three months too late, but fine 23:00 — Housing bill passes bipartisan — Byron Donalds' "no" vote and what it signals for his Florida governor race 26:00 — MTG and Tucker Carlson leave the GOP: welcome to the political wilderness 28:00 — Trump approval at 40% — does America 250 paper over the cracks? 32:00 — The Reflecting Pool disaster: algae, a $14M contractor, and government waste 36:00 — July calendar: jobs report, CPI, Fed rate decision, and the World Cup wild card Trade these markets on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026 PredictIt is a real-money prediction market for U.S. politics. Subscribe: https://youtube.com/@PredictItOfficial X: https://x.com/PredictItPod #PredictionMarkets #Mamdani #NewYorkPrimary2026

  6. Jun 17

    Iran Deal Done. Gas Prices Down. Is the GOP Back?

    For the first time since Venezuela, Republicans have real momentum — and it came from three places at once: an Iran deal signed in Geneva, gas prices falling week over week, and UFC 250 entering through the Oval Office. Democrats are still at 71¢ to take the House, but the environment is tightening. In this episode of The PredictIt Podcast, Jacob Studwell and Garth Juckem cover: 00:00 — Knicks win, Trump's off the hook? The White House visit debate 04:30 — Herschel Walker, Bahamas safety alerts, and jet ski diplomacy 07:00 — Georgia runoff results: Ossoff cruises to 88¢, governor race hits 52-49 10:00 — UFC at the White House: effective propaganda or birthday party? 13:00 — Iran deal: what we know, what Bloomberg leaked, and why it's still a win regardless 17:00 — Gas prices down three weeks straight — Trump claims victory he may have earned 19:00 — Trump's approval bounces, generic ballot narrows: what prediction markets say 21:00 — NY-12: Lasher 63¢, Boris 34¢, the establishment machine takes over 25:00 — Brad Lander at 97¢, NY-7 Valdez vs. Reynoso — Jacob likes Reynoso at 49¢ Trade these markets on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026 PredictIt is a real-money prediction market for U.S. politics. Subscribe: https://youtube.com/@PredictItOfficial X: https://x.com/PredictItPod #PredictionMarkets #IranDeal #2026Midterms

  7. Jun 10

    Is Graham Platner Underpriced to Beat Collins in Maine?

    Graham Platner won the Maine Democratic primary last night with 77% of the vote — Is the Market Overreacting to the Platner Scandal? We broke down the thesis weeks ago: scandals with diminishing returns, outsider energy in a fighter's environment, and a Democratic electorate ready to act like toddlers when told who not to vote for. Democrats are now at 59¢ to beat Susan Collins in November. In this episode of The PredictIt Podcast, Jacob Studwell and Garth Juckem cover: 00:00 — Trump at MSG: the booing, the suit, and what it tells you about the secret New Yorker 06:00 — California's two-week vote count: sus, legal, and a structural problem only one state has 10:00 — Maine Senate: Platner wins, thesis confirmed, Collins vs. the oyster farmer is on 18:00 — Why scandals with diminishing returns make Platner the Democrats' Trump 22:00 — Iran: Trump says "deal is close" 38 times, then fires again — and the market for that quote 25:00 — Inflation up most since April 2023: what it does to the Senate market at 64¢ for Republicans 27:00 — Texas Senate AI ad, Talarico shifts on trans surgery, Tarico vs. Cornyn tightening 29:00 — House market breakdown: Dems at 71¢, Senate at 40¢, or take the combo at 36¢? 31:00 — LA mayor runoff: Bass wins easy, Ramen too progressive even for LA, Spencer Pratt voters stay home 34:00 — World Cup picks: Jacob takes South Korea, Garth has a team in every group Trade these markets on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026 PredictIt is a real-money prediction market for U.S. politics. Subscribe: https://youtube.com/@PredictItOfficial X: https://x.com/PredictItPod #PredictionMarkets #GrahamPlatner #Maine2026

  8. Jun 3

    AI, Aliens, and the Age of Aquarius with Dr. Laurence Hillman (Part 2)

    An astrologer's archetypal forecast for 2026... without making a single prediction. Dr. Laurence Hillman returns for Part 2 with his most provocative takes: AI acceleration, alien disclosure, the Leo-Aquarius tension defining our era, and why "expect the unexpected" isn't a joke right now: 00:00 — How archetypes shape entire electorates: post-war America vs. now 06:00 — The three archetypes America has lost: nurture, real dreamer, and sovereignty 11:00 — The Age of Aquarius: what the Leo-Aquarius tension means for politics 18:00 — Uranus in Gemini: why 2026 is particularly unpredictable 22:00 — AI, decentralization, and nervous system exhaustion 27:00 — Alien disclosure and the collective consciousness shift 32:00 — Discernment as the most important skill for 2026 and beyond 36:00 — "I wouldn't bet a cent on the future" Watch Part 1: https://youtu.be/4pnS6H0dlc8?si=pjPTyOLyp67XEkzE Trade 2026 political markets on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026 Subscribe: https://youtube.com/@PredictItOfficial X: https://x.com/PredictItPod #PredictionMarkets #AgeOfAquarius #Astrology2026

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Ratings & Reviews

5
out of 5
6 Ratings

About

The PredictIt Podcast is your weekly deep dive into political prediction markets — election odds, market prices, and the trades behind the biggest stories in American politics. Hosts Jacob Studwell and Garth Juckem, two prediction market veterans, break down what's moving on PredictIt every week: Senate and House races, primaries, presidential politics, polling vs. market prices, and where traders are finding value. No punditry, no partisanship — just a strictly-business read on political markets, contracts, and prices. If you want to know what election betting markets are really saying about the 2026 midterms, the 2028 presidential race, and every race in between, this is the best prediction market analysis available in podcast form. New episodes Wednesday weekly. Follow us on X @PredictItPod and YouTube @predictitofficial. Trade the markets at PredictIt.org.

Information

  • Creator
    PredictIt
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    36
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2025 PredictIt