True Odds: A Prediction Markets Podcast

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True Odds: A Prediction Markets Podcast is a collaborative weekly series from Stocktwits, powered by Polymarket. Bringing listeners a sharp, data-backed look at how prediction markets price the future, what those probabilities reveal about politics/culture/finance/sports/global events and trade in real-time on the Polymarket platform.

  1. Apr 2

    March Madness Final Four: Michigan–Arizona Coin Flip + Illinois–UConn Debate

    The Final Four is set in Indianapolis — and the college season is almost over. Mikey Markets and Joey Rockets recap the all-time Duke vs UConn collapse (including the near-technical moment with Hurley), then break down the Final Four with updated odds: Michigan 35%, Arizona 34%, Illinois 17%, UConn 13%. They split picks on both games: Illinois vs UConn (Joey leans UConn, Mikey rides with Illinois) Michigan vs Arizona (Joey sticks with Arizona, Mikey takes Michigan) Then they talk strategy: whether to take profit on Arizona, the Big Ten to win the title market, and a simple “seed to win” market where you can back the 1-seed to win it all. They wrap with “one shining moment” — UConn’s miracle buzzer beater and a personal Michigan moment at the United Center. #MarchMadness #FinalFour #NCAATournament #CollegeBasketball #TrueOdds Chapters 00:00 — Intro: Final Four is set 00:41 — Duke vs UConn: 19-point lead blown + miracle shot 02:26 — Houston out, Illinois gets respect 02:56 — 0.3 seconds + Hurley confrontation controversy 04:48 — Updated odds: Michigan 35%, Arizona 34%, Illinois 17%, UConn 13% 06:05 — Final Four Game 1: Illinois vs UConn (split picks) 09:49 — Final Four Game 2: Michigan vs Arizona (“true national championship”) 13:51 — Sight lines in football stadiums + free throws factor 15:18 — KenPom nugget: best matchup since 1996/97 16:35 — Recap: Mikey on Illinois/Michigan, Joey on UConn/Arizona 17:04 — Arizona futures: take profit or let it ride? 17:42 — Conference champ market: Big Ten angle 20:10 — Seed-to-win market: 1-seed at 75 cents 22:05 — One shining moment: UConn buzzer beater + Michigan moment 25:35 — Wrap Disclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/

    26 min

  2. Mar 25

    March Madness Sweet 16 Preview: Purdue, Iowa, Arizona, Houston + Friday Bangers

    March Madness rolls on, and so do we. Mikey Markets is joined by Joey Rockets and Coach Ryan — fresh off an all-time debut where he called a sharp first-round upset and now sits 99.8th percentile in his bracket. Joey admits basketball isn’t his thing (and he’s basically throwing darts), but Arizona is still alive — and the Sweet 16 slate is stacked across Thursday and Friday. We break down every game we cover: Purdue vs Texas Nebraska vs Iowa (Cornpocalypse) Arizona vs Arkansas Houston vs Illinois (late-night sweat) Duke vs St. John’s (Mikey goes contrarian) Alabama vs Michigan UConn vs Michigan State Iowa State vs Tennessee Then we hit two markets: Which conference wins the title? (Big Ten vs Big 12) How many buzzer beaters in the tournament? Drop a comment with your picks and your best upset. #MarchMadness #Sweet16 #NCAATournament #TrueOdds #CollegeBasketball #bracketology  Disclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/ Chapters: 00:00 — Intro + Coach Ryan’s insane bracket start 01:14 — Joey’s bracket pain + tournament chaos recap 02:15 — Updated title odds (Arizona/Michigan favorites) + Cash Tag Awards plug 04:11 — Purdue vs Texas (Coach Ryan: Purdue by double digits) 06:26 — Nebraska vs Iowa (“Cornpocalypse”) 10:23 — Arizona vs Arkansas (Acuff Jr. vs Arizona defense) 12:23 — Houston vs Illinois (pace + defense vs offense) 16:12 — Friday slate begins: Duke vs St. John’s (Mikey’s upset pick) 20:05 — Alabama vs Michigan (Michigan defense + Chicago crowd) 22:58 — UConn vs Michigan State (Izzo second-half territory) 27:06 — Iowa State vs Tennessee (Jefferson injury watch) 29:35 — Conference winner market (Big Ten vs Big 12 + ACC value note) 32:30 — Buzzer beater market (3+ vs 4+ discussion) 34:24 — Wrap + Indy Final Four talk

    36 min

  3. Mar 18

    March Madness 2026 Predictions: First Round Upsets & Final Four Dark Horses

    March Madness is officially here! The True Odds crew is joined by college hoops aficionado Ryan to break down the 2026 NCAA Tournament. From double-digit seeds ready to bust brackets to a heated debate over BYU vs. Gonzaga, we’re covering every angle of the road to Indianapolis. 🏆 In this episode: First Round Upsets: Why High Point, USF, and Mizzou are on upset alert. Sweet 16 Locks: Joey’s bold Vanderbilt play vs. Mike’s BYU hype. Final Four & National Title: Is Duke playing the best ball in the country, or are they walking into a "Group of Death"? The Triple-Double Prop: Will we see history made in the 2026 tournament? 🎟️ CASH TAG AWARDS: Don't miss the best of market culture on May 4th in NYC. Get your tickets at cashtag.stocktwits.com! 0:00 – Intro: Meet Ryan (The Brackets Expert) 1:30 – Productivity vs. The Tournament: Office Culture in March 2:15 – The "First Four" & UMBC Magic 3:00 – ROUND 1 UPSETS: High Point, USF, and UCF 7:30 – Mizzou vs. Miami: The "Hornet's Nest" in St. Louis 9:45 – SWEET 16 RUNS: Yukon, Gonzaga, and Vanderbilt 11:45 – The BYU Hype: Is AJ Dybantsa the Real Deal? 15:30 – FINAL FOUR PICKS: Duke’s Pace vs. The "Group of Death" 19:00 – Why Arizona has the Easiest Path to Indy 21:30 – NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP: Duke, Arizona, or Houston? 26:00 – Wacky Prop Bet: Will we see a Triple-Double? 32:00 – Outro: Join the Conversation! Disclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/

    33 min

  4. Mar 12

    Max Crosby Deal COLLAPSES + Palantir Rumors + March Madness Picks

    Welcome back to True Odds with Mikey Markets and Joey Rockets — and this episode is loaded. We start with World Baseball Classic chaos: Team USA manager Mark DeRosa said they’d already clinched… then the U.S. lost 8–5 to Italy and now needs help based on a wild pool-play math scenario (Italy/Mexico runs matter). Meanwhile, the other must-watch game is Dominican Republic vs Venezuela — with huge implications for the bracket and for our picks (Joey’s Samurai Japan is cruising; Mikey’s on the DR). Then we hit a headline we’ve basically never seen: the Ravens backed out of the Max Crosby trade after the deal was “done,” sending Crosby back to Vegas… and the Ravens immediately pivoted to Trey Hendrickson. We talk buyer’s remorse, what it does to Crosby’s price, and why the Bears odds just got interesting. We also recap an all-time sleeper stock: Casey’s (the “rural rocket”) continuing its insane long-term run. Finally, we preview March Madness with a practical champion checklist (KenPom offense/defense + early AP poll trends), give early picks (Arizona) and a value angle (Houston), and close with an all-time comparison:  Arizona to win the Natty… or Kim Kardashian to pass the bar exam? Drop a comment with your WBC take and your March Madness winner. Chapters 00:00 — Intro + why this episode is chaos 00:35 — WBC drama: Mark DeRosa “clinched” comment + USA loses to Italy 02:47 — Pool B math: how USA advances (runs scored scenarios) 03:37 — Why this is a bad look for Team USA 05:14 — Can teams “manage” a low score? What to watch for 06:38 — Mikey on DR; Joey on Samurai Japan (knockout round implications) 09:10 — Max Crosby trade reversal: Ravens back out + Trey Hendrickson pivot 11:26 — Bears odds + what this does to Crosby’s market 14:39 — Casey’s recap: 27,000%+ return “rural rocket” 16:28 — Palantir rumor: monitoring bets + insider deterrence 22:00 — March Madness preview: champion criteria + early picks 23:41 — Joey’s pick: Arizona 25:05 — Mikey’s value pick: Houston (8 cents) 28:20 — Arizona title odds vs Kim Kardashian passing the bar 33:13 — Closing: fingers crossed Team USA (and tonight’s huge games) #trueodds  Disclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/

    33 min

  5. Mar 4

    Casey’s Pizza, WBC Futures, Bears Trade Hopes & GTA 6 Price Market

    Welcome back to True Odds with Mikey Markets and Joey Rockets. We open with a quick recap: NVIDIA beat (and basically “saved the market”), CrowdStrike beat after peers signaled strength, and Mikey celebrates a win on Traitors USA — plus Joey officially got hooked. Then we check in on Bitcoin after John Morgan’s call: it didn’t tag 60K, bounced hard, and is now ripping higher — with 80K looking closer than a retest of the low 60s. This week’s main earnings watch is a sneaky one: Casey’s General Stores (CASY) — the Midwest convenience store legend and fifth-largest pizza retailer in the U.S. Joey highlights a perfect recent track record of earnings beats, while Mikey confirms the real alpha: Casey’s breakfast pizza. Sports are back: the World Baseball Classic is underway. Mikey doubles down on Dominican Republic to win Pool D, Joey rides Japan to win Pool C, and we both agree the USA should handle Pool B unless something goes sideways. Then we hit NFL transaction chaos: Where will Maxx Crosby play in 2026? The Bears odds jumped from 23% to 48% in a day, and Mikey is fully manifesting an elite pass rusher in Chicago — especially after surprise news that center Drew Dalman retired at 27, opening more cap questions. We wrap with the random market of the week: Will GTA 6 cost over $100? We debate “standard edition” vs bundles, why $100 would be wild, and then Joey casually nails a GTA: Vice City release date question like it’s nothing. Drop a comment: Who are you taking in the WBC? Is Maxx Crosby actually headed to Chicago? And what’s your GTA 6 price prediction? Disclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/ Chapters 0:00 - Welcome + recap setup 0:20 - Earnings recap: NVDA beat, market reaction 0:45 - CrowdStrike beat + thesis confirmed 1:10 - Traitors USA finale: Rob wins + Joey gets hooked 2:50 - Bitcoin 60K vs 80K recap + John Morgan nailed it 4:05 - Earnings of the week: Casey’s (CASY) preview 4:40 - Casey’s pizza angle + 10/10 earnings beats 5:20 - Mikey’s Casey’s breakfast pizza endorsement 6:55 - World Baseball Classic underway: DR vs Japan positions 7:30 - DR to win Pool D: lineup looks stacked 8:45 - Japan to win Pool C + USA Pool B flag planting 10:40 - Maxx Crosby 2026 market: Bears jump 23% to 48% 12:00 - Drew Dalman retires at 27 + cap space theory 13:55 - Detroit trades David Montgomery: “Sonic & Knuckles” broken up 16:15 - Random market: Will GTA 6 cost over $100? 17:25 - Standard edition rule + why “no shot” 20:05 - Vice City release date trivia + Joey nails it 21:20 - Outro + comment/market suggestions

    23 min

  6. Feb 26

    SaaSpocalypse Explained + CrowdStrike Earnings + Stripe Buying PayPal?

    Welcome back to True Odds with Mikey Markets and Joey Rockets — Episode 12, “The Dirty Dozen.” We start by recapping last week’s State of the Union timing market… and wow: it ran a record 1 hour 48 minutes. We were on the over, but still didn’t land the perfect range — close, but no cigar. Then we hit earnings and market vibes: Walmart beat, NVIDIA is the main event (conference call and forward guidance matters most), and Mikey’s Discord IPO call got spicy fast — but Joey drops a key rules lesson: IPO plans can get delayed, so if you’ve already doubled, take the cash and move on. Next up: Joey’s big earnings look-ahead is CrowdStrike, plus a full breakdown of the SaaSpocalypse — AI agents, “build-a-knockoff” software fears, and how market stupidity can go further than you think. We also dig into a new market: Will Stripe acquire PayPal in 2026? and why buying the whole company might not make sense… but buying parts might. Sports are back too: we lock in World Baseball Classic futures (Dominican Republic vs Japan) and talk trading strategy if they reach the later rounds. Then we jump to a “trap opportunity” market: Who goes #1 in the 2026 NBA Draft? and why we like buying NO on Darren Peterson. We wrap with listener theory: Bitcoin $60K or $80K first? with a John Morgan quote, and finish with our random markets: Traitors US finale bet and a fun one — Apple’s March 4 NYC event and “what will they say” markets like M5, Apple Intelligence, Siri, and iPad. Comment your favorite market from this episode — and what you’re trading next. Disclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/

    43 min

  7. Feb 19

    LeBron Retiring Before Next Season? + The Highest Grossing Movie of 2026 Market

    Episode 11 of True Odds starts with a sports reality check: the NBA All-Star “World” pick got torched (thanks to limited minutes from Jokic and Luka), and Mikey Markets + Joey Rockets are officially dialing down NBA and Olympics takes for a bit. The good news? Earnings bailed us out — AppLovin and Palo Alto both beat. Then the guys preview the next wave: Walmart (a “can’t miss” setup with tech-like valuation), Lowe’s (with Home Depot as the key read-through), and Nvidia (the market’s darling that “has to beat”). On the culture side: Will LeBron retire before next season? Then a contrarian movie market: Super Mario Brothers Galaxy vs Spider-Man for highest grossing film of 2026. The episode turns serious with MLB labor talk: Will MLB have a new CBA by Dec 1, 2026? (plus deferred money, minimum payrolls, and lockout fears). Finally, the random market of the week: How long will Trump’s State of the Union be? #trueodds  Chapters 00:00 — Episode 11 intro + sports “bloodbath” PSA 00:51 — NBA All-Star recap: why the World pick failed 03:08 — Earnings winners: AppLovin + Palo Alto beat 03:53 — Walmart earnings preview: “can’t afford to miss” 06:13 — Lowe’s preview: Home Depot as the read-through 08:19 — Nvidia preview: the market’s “must beat” report 10:59 — LeBron retirement market: will he retire before next season? 13:25 — Trading angle: can you scalp the LeBron market? 16:01 — Last Dance + Jordan talk 17:08 — Highest grossing movie of 2026: Super Mario Galaxy case 20:46 — Toy Story 5: toys vs iPad debate 24:00 — MLB CBA market: lockout fears + Tony Clark resignation 26:05 — Fix ideas: deferred money caps + minimum payroll 32:21 — Trading the CBA market as volatility rises 35:47 — Savannah Bananas: who benefits if MLB locks out? 37:24 — Random market: State of the Union length (timed prop) 40:22 — Wrap: what’s next + calls to comment/subscribe Disclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/

    41 min

  8. Feb 12

    Super Bowl Winners Recap + What’s Next: NBA All-Star, Olympics, WBC + Earnings

    Football season is officially over… and True Odds is taking a victory lap. Mikey Markets and Joey Rockets recap an insanely profitable Super Bowl weekend: Seattle + under, Kenneth Walker MVP, AJ Barner TD (plus the legendary Vegas pool promise that actually got paid out). Then they pivot to earnings results (Google/Reddit hit, Uber/Amazon missed), break down why AppLovin is a community darling heading into earnings, and set up Palo Alto Networks as the next cybersecurity “earnings beat machine.” On the sports side, they dive into the new NBA All-Star USA vs World format — and explain why the World roster is absurd. Then it’s Olympics quick-hitters (Eileen Gu and Chloe Kim), a contrarian World Baseball Classic angle on the Dominican Republic at a longshot price, and a fun “random market of the week” debate: Will there be a half-court shot in the All-Star game? Drop a comment with your favorite market to track next. Chapters 00:00 — Intro: football season over, Super Bowl winners recap 01:16 — Super Bowl weekend vibes + Mikey’s Vegas experience 02:11 — The full Super Bowl card: Seattle, under, Walker MVP, Barner first TD, novelty props 03:38 — Joey’s proudest win: Kenneth Walker MVP breakdown 04:22 — Walker legacy + why the kicker MVP sweat got real 05:27 — Seattle defense takeaway: Pats were doomed 06:12 — Earnings recap: Google/Reddit beat, Uber/Amazon miss 07:16 — Prediction markets lesson: research helps, but surprises happen 08:59 — AppLovin deep dive: what it is + what Stocktwits community expects 10:55 — Why AppLovin is a “darling” (and why shorts keep coming for it) 12:04 — Next setup: Palo Alto Networks earnings (cybersecurity tailwinds) 14:35 — Pivot to sports markets: NBA All-Star weekend (USA vs World format) 16:22 — World roster reaction: Giannis, Luka, Jokic, Wemby 17:51 — Do we even need All-Star games anymore? 19:04 — The pick: World team value vs USA pricing 21:12 — Timing note: low volume markets can move fast 22:27 — Olympics check-in: what they’re watching 23:30 — Eileen Gu bounce-back case (halfpipe) 25:18 — Joey’s Olympics play: Chloe Kim halfpipe 26:12 — Chloe Kim and Myles Garrett power couple moment 27:30 — WBC contrarian: Dominican Republic at 15 cents (stacked lineup) 28:27 — Joey’s concern: DR pitching vs USA staff edge 30:55 — Listener theory: biggest IPO of 2026 (SpaceX vs OpenAI) 32:57 — Random market: half-court shot in NBA All-Star game 34:12 — Rule nuance: both feet must be behind half-court line 35:35 — Wrap: what’s next (guests, baseball, college hoops) 36:21 — Parting shots: building the wedding fund, more winners ahead

    36 min
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True Odds: A Prediction Markets Podcast is a collaborative weekly series from Stocktwits, powered by Polymarket. Bringing listeners a sharp, data-backed look at how prediction markets price the future, what those probabilities reveal about politics/culture/finance/sports/global events and trade in real-time on the Polymarket platform.

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