Tepp Talks: A podcast with David Tepp

David Tepp
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David Tepp is founder and CEO of Tepp Wealth Management, a SEC registered investment adviser. Through Tepp Talks: A podcast with David Tepp, Dave shares audio versions of his articles covering the state of the US economy, US and global markets, and the evolving effects of politics and current events on the economy.

  1. Jul 22

    Tepp Wealth Management 3rd Quarter 2026 Outlook

    The end of the Iran conflict was, in many ways, anti-climactic: a memorandum of understanding, a partially reopened shipping lane, and a great deal of squinting at tanker-tracking data. Our second-quarter outlook was written with oil tankers idling outside the Strait of Hormuz and markets pricing catastrophe. Three months later, the United States and Iran have signed a 14-point framework, the Strait is haltingly reopening and oil prices have collapsed. We said the Strait would be substantially open by late May; the ceasefire came in April and the framework in June. We said the technology selloff was a valuation problem, not an earnings problem, and an attractive entry point; as of this writing, semiconductor stocks have since risen roughly 80% this year, which is the market’s way of agreeing with unnerving enthusiasm. And we warned of an inflationary impulse which has already occurred. For the 3rdQ, our advice is simple: take profits where success created concentration and diversify holdings for greater protection against market risk. SOURCES Absolute Strategy Research, “Return to risk-on,” Asset Allocation Quarterly, Zahra Ward-Murphy & ASR Research Team, June 17, 2026Absolute Strategy Research, “Resilient Economy Drives Sector Shift,” Nick Nelson, June 25, 2026Absolute Strategy Research, “Stick with Japan, Asia ex-Japan & US,” Nick Nelson, July 2, 2026Alpine Macro, “Further And Longer,” Global Strategy, Chen Zhao, June 22, 2026Alpine Macro, “The Aftermath Playbook,” Global Asset Allocation, Bassam Nawfal, June 16, 2026Alpine Macro, “WACC Attack,” Equity Strategy Monthly, Nick Giorgi, July 1, 2026BCA Research, “Monthly TAA: Monetization — The Next Frontier Of The AI Bull Market,” Juan Correa et al., June 1, 2026BCA Research, “Geopolitical Outlook For Q3, 2026,” Matt Gertken et al., June 29, 2026BCA Research, “Is The US Labor Market Tightening Or Easing?” US Bond Strategy, Ryan Swift, July 3, 2026Center for Strategic and International Studies, “Why Russia Is Changing Its Nuclear Doctrine Now,” Heather Williams, September 27, 2024Oxford Economics, “Good news is bad news for the Fed,” Country Economic Forecast US, Michael Pearce, June 10, 2026Oxford Economics, “Job market losing its sheen adds to the case for an extended Fed pause,” Weekly Economic Briefing US, Bernard Yaros, July 2, 2026

  2. May 28

    The Energy Pivot: Establishing Supply in the Face of Historic Demand

    Artificial intelligence has relentlessly inundated every facet of our lives, sparking a massive surge in energy demand to power this new technology. At the same time, the Iran conflict has critically disrupted global energy markets. Energy has always been top of mind for nations around the world, but a clear shift is now taking place: those who do not invest appropriately will almost certainly fall behind. How, then, will nations generate the electricity to meet the demands of AI?   By David Tepp for Advisor Perspectives, published May 22, 2026 Sources Alpine Macro, "Post-War Oil Market: From Scarcity To Glut?", written by Kelly Xu, April 20, 2026 Alpine Macro, "Uranium: The Bull Case Deepens", written by Noah Ramos, February 17, 2026 Alpine Macro, "The AI Commodity Nexus: Powering Demand For Energy And Metals – Special Report", written by Kelly Xu, February 2, 2026 Alpine Macro, "AI, Energy, And The Grid – A Collision Course", written by Noah Ramos, August 6, 2025 Alpine Macro, "Renewable Energy: Exploring Unconventional Opportunities", written by Noah Ramos, October 29, 2025 Absolute Strategy Research, "Funky Correlations & Missing Links #19: Is the Market Complacent about the Risk of Stagflation?", written by David Bowers and Ian Harnett, April 22, 2026 Absolute Strategy Research, "Investing in a Resource-Constrained World", written by Michael Hessel, March 4, 2026 BCA Research, "Uranium: The Bull Case Just Got Enriched", written by Jeremie Peloso, April 13, 2026 Rosenberg Research, "Middle East Crisis Makes Alternative Energy a Big Winner", written by Robert Embree, March 25, 2026 Rosenberg Research, "Building the Future: The Investment Case for Private Infrastructure", written by John Smolinski and David Rosenberg, September 4, 2025 Rosenberg Research, "Early Morning with Dave", written by David Rosenberg, March 19, 2026 Oxford Economics, "Global oil demand set to peak in 2028", written by Jack Reid, February 11, 2026 Oxford Economics, "Stable long-run inflation expectations argue against a rate hike", written by Grace Zwemmer, March 30, 2026

  3. May 12

    How Far Can Optimism Stretch Valuations? What Investors Should Know

    By most metrics, the U.S. stock market is exorbitantly expensive. The S&P 500’s price-to-earnings ratio remains well above historical averages, and valuations in the technology sector are stretching into territory that makes even seasoned investors anxious. And yet, many buyers remain fully committed. This leaves investors and analysts arguing over whether current prices are justified by earnings expectations or whether the market is pricing in a level of perfection that is rarely delivered. By David Tepp, 'Forbes Councils Member' for Forbes Finance Council Published October 21, 2025

  4. May 6

    TrumpBessenomics: The First-Semester Report Card

    Now that we are six months into the second Trump administration, it is worth revisiting the economic philosophy that I refer to as “TrumpBessenomics.” The term captures the fusion of Donald Trump’s populist, growth-oriented agenda with the strategic and data-driven approach of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. While it is too early to evaluate the effectiveness of "TrumpBessenomics", what follows is a targeted assessment of actual policy execution and economic outcomes so far, focused on four key areas: growth and markets, fiscal policy, trade strategy, and institutional integrity. By David Tepp Published in Advisor Perspectives August 12, 2025 Sources: https://www.wsj.com/opinion/bessents-3-3-3-economic-growth-plan-and-the-5-4-3-threat-treasury-secretary-nominee-387250a8Oxford Economics, “Q2 GDP Rebound Masks Glowing Fundamentals,” written by Bernard Yaros, July 30, 2025BCA Research, “One Big Beautiful Basket,” written by Max Malakveitshouk, July 16, 2025https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/30/politics/doge-musk-government-savingsJP Morgan Chase, “Guide to the Markets,” July 31, 2025Oxford Economics, “Made in America – The Manufacturing Sectors With the Best Prospects,” written by Nico Palesch, July 22, 2025Oxford Economics, “PCE Nowcast – Tariffs Are Starting to Hit Inflation,” written by Grace Zwemmer, July 16, 2025Oxford Economics, “ICE Arrests Proving a Hinderance to Labor Force Growth,” written by Matthew Martin, August 4, 2025

  5. Apr 30

    The Tangible Side of a Digital World: Don't Overlook the Inputs

    In an age when investors obsess over quarterly earnings, AI hype, and the Federal Reserve, it’s easy to overlook what actually makes the global economy tick: the inputs that power, build, and sustain growth. By David Tepp Published in Advisor Perspectives October 13, 2025 Sources: Absolute Strategy Return, “From Weaponised Trade to Weaponised Capital:, written by Ian Harnett, April 3, 2025Absolute Strategy Return, “Controversies, Convictions & Context #4”, written by Ian Harnett and David Bowers, May 8, 2025Absolute Strategy Return, “Water, Food & Climate: The New Security Imperative”, written by Michael Penn, May 30, 2025Absolute Strategy Return, “The Critical Metal Catalysts”, written by Michael Hessel, July 4, 2025Absolute Strategy Return, “Energy Transition: Myths & Realities”, written by Michael Penn, July 22, 2025Absolute Strategy Return, “Real Asset Revival”, written by Zahra Ward-Murphy, August 8, 2025Alpine Macro, “Future Water Security Hinges on Innovation”, written by Noah Ramos, November 20, 2024Alpine Macro, “Adapting Commodity Strategy to Shifting Correlation Dynamics, written by Kelly Xu, August 5, 2025Alpine Macro, “AI, Energy, And the Grid – A Collision Course”, written by Noah Ramos, August 6, 2025Rosenberg Research, “Making Uncertainty Great Again: Take Three”, written by David Rosenberg, September 2025Oxford Economics, “ICE Arrests Proving a Hinderance to Labor Force Growth”, written by Matthew Martin, August 4, 2025Oxford Economics, “The Young and the Anxious”, written by Ryan Sweet, March 26, 2025

  6. Apr 15

    Tepp Wealth Management 2ndQ 2026 Quarterly Outlook

    Our first quarter outlook described 2026 as a story of steady growth in the first half, with the potential for inflation to re-emerge later in the year as fiscal stimulus, deregulation, and improving business conditions combined to reignite demand. The Iran conflict, which began on February 28th with coordinated US and Israeli strikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure, compressed and scrambled that sequence. SOURCES - Absolute Strategy Research, “Asset Allocation: Reduce Risk as Iran War Extends,” Zahra Ward-Murphy, March 18, 2026- Absolute Strategy Research, “Six Big Investment Issues from Our Global Marketing,” March 25, 2026- Absolute Strategy Research, “The High-Flation Regime & Bonds,” written by Ebrahim Rahbari, April 1, 2026- Alpine Macro, “Tropic Thunder: War Time Equity Positioning,” Nick Giorgi, April 1, 2026- Alpine Macro, “In Brief: Iran — Winner, Winner, TACO Dinner?,” Dan Alamariu, April 1, 2026- BCA Research, “Quarterly TAA: Anatomy of a Supply Shock,” Juan Correa, Lucas Laskey et al., April 1, 2026- BCA Research, “Geopolitical Strategy: The Shortest Geopolitical Outlook for Q2 2026,” Matt Gertken et al., April 3, 2026- GeoFutures, “Sketches of the Middle East After the Iran War”, written by Kamran Bokhari, April 2, 2026- Numera Analytics, “Global Asset Allocation: The Fog of War — Should Investors Buy the Dip?,” Joaquin Kritz Lara et al., March 17, 2026- Numera Analytics, “US Asset Allocation,” Joaquin Kritz Lara et al., March 19, 2026- Oxford Economics, “GAA Equities: US Equities Can Weather the Oil Shock,” Daniel Grosvenor, March 16, 2026- Oxford Economics / Alpine Macro, “GAA Cross Asset: Move Closer to Benchmark as We Dial Back Risk,” Ainsworth-Grace, Corominas & Grosvenor, March 12, 2026- Oxford Economics / Alpine Macro, “GAA Fixed Income: Central Banks Will Need to Lean Against the Wind,” Javier Corominas, March 13, 2026

  7. Apr 3

    Quantum Computing: Swapping Traffic Lanes for Jetpacks

    The leap from traditional computing to quantum computing is a revolutionary economic event. Quantum computing could alter productivity, industrial structure, capital allocation, and even the balance of global power. The transformation won’t happen overnight, but investors who wait for proof may find they have waited too long. By David Tepp  Published in Advisor Perspectives January 12, 2026 Sources Alpine Macro, “Opportunities in the Quantum Ecosystem”, written by Noah Ramos, November 12, 2025 Alpine Macro, “The Dawn of Quantum Utility”, written by Noah Ramos, March 5, 2025 Alpine Macro, “The Quantum Landscape: Accelerating Disruption”, written by Noah Ramos, October 30, 2024 Deloitte Insights, “Quantum Computing Over the Next Five Years”, written by Deloitte Insights Contributers, May 2025 Financial Times, “Google and IMB Believe First Workable Quantum Computer is in Sight”, written by Richard Waters, August 12, 2025 Financial Times, “The World Should Prepare for the Looming Quantum Era, written by the Editorial Board, August 21, 2025 McKinsey Digital, “Quantum Technology Monitor”, written by McKinsey Technology Council, McKinsey & Co, June 2025 Wall Street Journal, “Trump Administration in Talks to Take Equity States in Quantum Computing Firms”, written by Amrith Ramkumar, October 23, 2025

  8. Apr 3

    Silver And Gold: Shining Metals

    Gold’s rally may have grabbed more headlines, but both silver and the yellow metal warrant closer analysis. Both commodities are surging—gold setting fresh highs above $2,500 an ounce and silver crossing $50 for the first time—and yet, neither may have reached their ceiling. By David Tepp, Forbes Councils Member, for Forbes Finance Council. Published December 9, 2025

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About

David Tepp is founder and CEO of Tepp Wealth Management, a SEC registered investment adviser. Through Tepp Talks: A podcast with David Tepp, Dave shares audio versions of his articles covering the state of the US economy, US and global markets, and the evolving effects of politics and current events on the economy.

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