This episode explores the tension between confidence and vulnerability in leadership, showing when each serves you and when it can harm outcomes. Confidence vs Vulnerability: How Much Should a Leader Show? You're asking investors to back a plan you know is partly a best guess, or you're a few weeks into a new role and everyone's waiting for you to set direction in a business you've barely got to know. Kate and Maddie look at the pull between projecting confidence and being open about what you don't know yet: what each one does for you, what happens when you lean too far either way, and how to work out which end you tend to default to. In this episode Why the most confident voice in the room tends to win the argument, even when it isn't the right one Overestimation, overplacement and overprecision: three kinds of overconfidence, and the signs you might be leaning on one of them A neurosurgeon who pairs complete certainty about what needs to happen with an open conversation about the options Process, outcome and emotional vulnerability, and why it's usually the emotional kind that makes leaders want the ground to swallow them When sharing how you feel helps your team, and when it hands them something heavy to carry Try this: this week, pair confidence with vulnerability in the way you talk to your team. If you tend to lead with uncertainty, swap "I don't know if this will work" for something like "There are parts of this project I'm still working out, and I'm confident in our ability to figure them out together." If you tend to lead with certainty, try "I'm confident this is the right direction, and please tell me if there's anything else we should be thinking about." Notice which one felt harder to say, as that's probably a clue about which end of the spectrum you spend less time at. Over to you Kate has said "overindex" so many times while planning this series that it's stopped sounding like a word. If you've got a better one, we'd love to hear it. Write to us at hello@latenightleadership.com. Research and resources Jessica A. Kennedy, Cameron Anderson and Don A. Moore (2013), "When overconfidence is revealed to others: Testing the status-enhancement theory of overconfidence", Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. The research behind the idea that confidence, even when it isn't justified, raises your status with peers. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4d61t8rg Don A. Moore and Paul J. Healy (2008), "The trouble with overconfidence", Psychological Review. Where the three "overs" come from. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18426301/ Brené Brown, Atlas of the Heart (2021). Grounded confidence, humility, armouring, and "I'm here to get it right, not to be right", a line that came out of her Dare to Lead research. [ADD LINK] Brené Brown, "The power of vulnerability", TED talk (2010). Vulnerability as uncertainty, risk and emotional exposure. https://www.ted.com/talks/brene_brown_the_power_of_vulnerability Edgar H. Schein, Humble Inquiry: The Gentle Art of Asking Instead of Telling (2013; second edition with Peter Schein, 2021). Asking questions as an act of vulnerability that builds trust, and a very thin book, if you want something to read next. Kevin Novak on three types of vulnerability in leadership: process, outcome and emotional. https://www.2040digital.com/change-and-transformation-leadership/leading-with-measured-vulnerability/ Past episode: the 15 Commitments of Conscious Leadership (Jim Dethmer, Diana Chapman and Kaley Klemp), and being "above" or "below the line". Season 1, Episode 2: how-culture-is-shaped-leaders-founders Past episode: emotional contagion. Season 1, Episode 2: how-culture-is-shaped-leaders-founders Further reading: the idea that showing vulnerability after you've shown competence makes you more likeable is often traced to Elliot Aronson's "pratfall effect" research from the 1960s, though later studies have found the effect depends a lot on context. Next episode 23rd October: Our embodied leadership special. The easiest way to find out what that is? Listen next time. Enjoying the show? Follow us on Spotify or Apple Podcasts, and a rating or review makes a real difference to a small podcast like ours. About your hosts Kate Nicholroy (Good Ideas Agency, https://www.goodideasagency.com) and Maddie Fox (MadFox Group, https://www.madfoxgroup.com) are coaches who work with senior leaders and their teams, and Late Night Leadership grew out of the conversations we kept having with them. Produced by Tim Fox. Music by Richard Flindell. Late Night Leadership was formerly A Curious Space.