Bottom Line Up Front

Rules of Engagement

Weekly updates in international security in a nutshell. www.roemedia.org

  1. Apr 5

    BLUF #18: The Iran War in Lebanon

    BLUF Since the missile strikes that killed Ayatollah Khamenei in late February, the Iran War has spilled over into a larger regional conflict, affecting several Gulf states and wide swaths of the Southern Levant. But as new as this war is, it has also revealed long-standing underlying regional tensions, notably the fight between Israel and Iran-backed militia Hezbollah based primarily in Lebanon. Israel had been planning an operation against Hezbollah for over a year, when Israeli intelligence officials had determined that the ceasefire between two was crumbling and the group’s disarmament had not come to fruition. Now, Hezbollah is engaged in what seems to be an existential last stand against Israel, while the strategy from Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz in response to this is to establish a buffer zone in southern Lebanon much like the one in Gaza. Lebanon is facing a humanitarian and refugee crisis, with over 1 million citizens displaced and daily life obliterated for the country’s most vulnerable. Today, I sit down with Katharine Sorensen, a reporter for The Beiruter, who has been covering these stories from the ground since October 2025. We talk about the political and religious structures that underpin Lebanon’s position within the wider war. More specifically, she breaks down why these structures make it functionally difficult for the country to escape spillover effects from regional conflicts, let alone act for itself. About the guest Katharine Sorensen is a reporter for the Beiruter, an English-language online news platform, and has been covering news from the ground in Beirut since October 2025. Previously, she worked as researcher at the Hoover Institution, as well as at Bain & Company in Dubai. Katharine holds a B.A. from Stanford University. Music Tomasz Redman Noah Tan This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.roemedia.org

    49 min

  2. Mar 16

    BLUF #17: Claude in the Crosshairs

    BLUF On February 27th, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth made an unprecedented announcement, listing American AI company Anthropic as a supply chain risk, effectively barring it from all current and future federal contracts. This designation came after the company refused to budge on their red lines preventing the use of Claude for mass surveillance and fully autonomous weapons systems. Anthropic sued the Department of War on the grounds that the government violated their rights to free speech and due process, as well as the on basis that the Department of War’s response was an arbitrary overreach of executive authority. Anthropic has a strong case to vacate the supply chain risk designation, but it may not prevent the Department of War from looking elsewhere for AI integration into the military. Music: Tomasz Redman Noah Tan Video Clips: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxnfu0g5kGI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CHNyvUXQJOI This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.roemedia.org

    17 min

  3. Mar 9

    BLUF #16: The Attritable Soldiers of Modern Warfare

    BLUF On March 1, two Iranian drones operated by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps flew into and struck Amazon Web Services data centers in the United Arab Emirates, and one more struck near a data center in Bahrain. According to the AWS health dashboard, the strikes caused structural damage and disrupted power delivery to a significant portion of the infrastructure at the affected sites. In some cases, AWS needed to suppress fires, which led to additional water damage. This is not an isolated instance. Throughout the war in the Gulf, the Russo-Ukrainian War, the Sudan Civil War, and the Myanmar Civil War, these types of attritable, flying weapons are becoming the tool of choice for militaries and militia groups that want both extended surveillance times and cost-effective weapons systems. Loitering munitions, also known as suicide drones or kamikaze drones, are autonomous or semi-autonomous aerial vehicles designed to hover around an area, collect surveillance data, identify a target, and engage it with their onboard warhead by flying into it. This article examines three such loitering munitions currently deployed in combat zones. The first is the small and common first-person viewer drone. The second is the Switchblade 600, a mid-sized tactical munition. And the third is the Shahed-136, a strategic “one-way attack” munition. While not exhaustive of loitering munitions, these weapons systems are redefining what modern warfighting means in the contexts of attritability, autonomous warfare, and artificial intelligence. Music: Tomasz Redman Noah Tan Video Clip: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Vit4q2RZ3Dc This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.roemedia.org

    15 min

  4. Mar 2

    BLUF #15: Iran's Supreme Leader is Dead. Now What?

    For more context, listen to BLUF #9: Regime Change in Iran Will Require the Perfect Storm, but One Might Be Brewing: BLUF: On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a massive coordinated military campaign (Operations “Epic Fury” and “Roaring Lion”) that effectively decapitated Iran’s top leadership, confirming the deaths of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several key military commanders. Following the failure of nuclear talks in Geneva and a massive U.S. naval buildup, the strikes targeted IRGC command centers, air defenses, and naval assets, prompting immediate Iranian retaliation against U.S. bases and Gulf allies. While President Trump has called for the Iranian people to seize this “hour of freedom” and overthrow the clerical regime, the path to successful regime change remains uncertain due to a burgeoning power vacuum, the lack of a clear U.S.-backed successor, and the risk of a protracted regional war involving Iranian proxies. Music: Tomasz Redman Noah Tan Video Clips: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Hjft_AZogE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DovpSDbZSy0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FyOkDvgnDhM This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.roemedia.org

    15 min

  5. Feb 22

    BLUF #14: SCOTUS Says, "No Taxation Without Congressional Authorization!"

    BLUF In a 6-3 ruling on Friday, the Supreme Court concluded that the Trump administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to levy broad global tariffs was an executive overreach of power. The majority argued that the language of IEEPA was not explicit enough to justify granting President Trump the ability to impose taxes, a power expressly reserved for Congress. Additionally, it agreed that the legislative history behind Congressional authority to regulate imports did not support an interpretation that Congress could even delegate such authority. The dissent argued that the national security rationale behind Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs granted broad authority to regulate importation as a means of conducting foreign policy, an authority that encompassed taxation. This ruling does little to stop Trump’s use of tariffs to carry out his foreign policy agenda. Still, it does open the door for up to $175 billion of tariff refund requests and potential renegotiations of trade agreements. Music: Tomasz Redman Noah Tan Video Clips: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnMQnVTaydQ https://www.youtube.com/shorts/uVqODqu3uIk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l5-e8fN1E7I This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.roemedia.org

    17 min

  6. Feb 15

    BLUF #13: The Munich Security Conference in a Nutshell

    BLUF The 2026 Munich Security Conference highlighted a shift toward “wrecking-ball” politics, where the U.S. favors dismantling the traditional rules-based order for a more transactional, “personalist” approach. In response to American volatility and issues like the diplomatic rift over Greenland, European and Indo-Pacific nations are pursuing “strategic realignment” and “double-hedging” to secure their own interests. This includes major initiatives like the India-EU trade deal, the “middle corridor” in the Caucasus, and the controversial “Board of Peace” for Gaza. Ultimately, the conference signaled a global acceptance that the old international order has collapsed, forcing a new focus on regional hegemony and self-sufficiency. Music: Tomasz Redman Noah Tan Video clips: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-eKsD-LMdk This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.roemedia.org

    10 min

  7. Feb 8

    BLUF #12: Dollar Dominance, Dollar Downfall, Dollar Domino

    BLUF Recent reports and statements from President Trump signal a weakening dollar. The U.S. dollar maintains its status as the world’s reserve currency, granting the U.S. the power of effective economic sanctions and the privilege of low borrowing costs. However, this position also demands balancing domestic stability with the global need for dollar liquidity, all while navigating the risks of a volatile exchange rate. Current 2026 policies favoring a weaker dollar aim to boost domestic manufacturing and narrow the trade deficit, but they risk eroding international confidence and inviting “de-dollarization” by adversaries and allies alike. Ultimately, a significant loss of reserve status would cripple Washington’s ability to fund massive deficits and signal an end to U.S. economic unilateralism in international security. Music: Tomasz Redman Noah Tan Video clips: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eoOpLkBVyXI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgD2f_Pgcko https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UsKE3dm-cfs This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.roemedia.org

    11 min

  8. Feb 1

    BLUF #11: The End of New START

    BLUF The New START Treaty—the last remaining nuclear arms treaty between the U.S. and Russia—is set to expire in four days. Give the state of U.S.-Russia tensions, China’s nuclear modernization, and ongoing threats from Iran’s nuclear development, the world will become a more dangerous place without New START. This won’t be due to explosive nuclear action but a quiet inaction on nuclear disarmament agreements. Music: Tomasz Redman Noah Tan Video clips: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzrkB-zfmdo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CbI-_UZQEqs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZLynlQ0UiU This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.roemedia.org

    13 min
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Weekly updates in international security in a nutshell. www.roemedia.org

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    Rules of Engagement
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  • Episodes
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