Thinking about buying, renewing, or refinancing? Book a free call at www.chatwithjonah.com Reach Zack directly at Zack@phippsbrittain.com Lending is going one direction, asset values are going the other, and consumer sentiment is going somewhere else entirely. That's the whole problem right now. In this Temp Check episode of the Keys and Capital Show, Zack Brittain and I break down what's actually happening on both sides of the table, the financing environment and the Waterloo Region market, so you know what to expect whether you're buying, selling, renewing, or making your next acquisition. On the financing side: Why fixed and variable rates follow two completely different indicators, and what that means for your decisionBond yields explained in plain terms, and how they moved from 2.7% in February to roughly 3.65% by mid-SeptemberWhat that move did to fixed rates: from the mid-to-high threes earlier this year to the mid-to-high fours nowThe rough rule of thumb: a one point move in yields translates to roughly a one point move in fixed ratesWhat's actually driving yields higher right now, including trade uncertainty, oil prices, and fertilizer costsThe current spread between fixed and variable, and why that spread matters most for anyone renewing or refinancingThree-year versus five-year fixed, and the argument that three-year products are dominating the landscape right nowWhy Jonah is more confident than he's ever been that fixed rates keep climbing, based on where yields sat in mid-2024 versus where rates are todayThe actionable move: locking in today's rate and holding it for 120 days, plus which lenders will stretch that to 180On the market side: Why Waterloo Region is technically still a seller's market at three and a half months of inventory, and why it's really a buyer's market in disguiseHow the townhouse and condo market is skewing the supply numbers, and why detached inventory has almost never hit three months in over a decadeAverage detached price at $828K, down about 2% year over yearVacancy rates by unit size, and where the softness actually isThe "spicy ratio," Zack's own name for the list-to-sale price ratio, and why 99.8% is the first real break from a decade above 100%Why two to six unit properties are sitting, and why investors won't even walk a lot of themWhy finding a good deal on a detached home is still genuinely hard even in a down marketWhat we're telling people right now: buyers, stop being flexible on too many things and get specific instead, because within 10 to 20 showings you should know exactly what you want and what it costs. Investors, have a five to ten year strategy in place before you shop, find the motivated sellers, and start writing offers. Jonah Hoyos is a Smith Manoeuvre Certified Professional and mortgage agent Level 1 with Tango Financial, FSRA licence #13691. Zack Brittain is a real estate sales representative with Flux Realty Brokerage in Kitchener, Ontario. This content is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be taken as legal, financial, tax, or investment advice. Rates and market data referenced were current at the time of recording. Always consult a professional for advice tailored to your circumstances.
