The Spillover

5.0 (25)
Business News
Updated Weekly

How do critical international developments shape economic and financial markets worldwide? Each week, The Spillover examines the ripple effects of global events across policy, geopolitics, economics, finance, and technology. This podcast helps you better understand what’s happening, and why it matters to businesses, global markets, and the world.

1d ago

The AI Trilemma + Open-Weight Proliferation + the “Singularity Delusion”

In this episode, The Spillover’s Sebastian Mallaby is hosted by Dan Kurtz-Phelan, editor of Foreign Affairs, to discuss the “AI trilemma”—the challenge U.S. policymakers face in encouraging enough innovation to stay ahead of China while addressing public anxiety about AI. Drawing on Mallaby’s recent Foreign Affairs essay and his new book, The Infinity Machine, this episode explores the stakes of the AI race and how its trajectory will reshape economies, societies, and global politics. Host: Dan Kurtz-Phelan, Editor, Foreign Affairs Guest: Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
6d ago

Rahm Emanuel Talks Israel, Midterm Elections, and the Democratic Party

Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby are joined by Rahm Emanuel, who served as President Bill Clinton’s political strategist, President Barack Obama’s first White House chief of staff, and President Joe Biden’s U.S. ambassador to Japan. The trio discuss Emanuel’s recent speech in Israel, the state of the U.S. Democratic Party, and the outlook for the upcoming midterm elections. Hosts: Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: Rahm Emanuel, Former U.S. Ambassador to Japan (2022–2025), Former Mayor of Chicago (2011–2019), Former White House Chief of Staff (2009–2010) Mentioned on the Episode: Emma Graham-Harrison, “Israeli Former Leaders and Security Chiefs Threaten Legal Action Over ‘Jewish Terrorism’,” The Guardian Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
Jul 13

Washington Considers a Stake in OpenAI + Altman’s Gambit + America, Inc.

On this episode of The Spillover, Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby, joined by CFR expert Jonathan Hillman, examine the U.S. government's rapidly growing portfolio of equity stakes in private companies, including a potential stake in OpenAI. Hosts: Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: Jonathan E. Hillman, Senior Fellow for Geoeconomics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Mentioned on the Episode: Jonathan E. Hillman, “Washington’s Growing Portfolio: Tracking U.S. Government Investments,” CFR.org Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
Jul 9

Gold vs. Bitcoin Showdown

Cohosts Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby stage a friendly debate over two so-called dollar alternatives—gold and bitcoin—weighing whether either has truly earned its reputation as a store of value. Patterson defends gold’s centuries of institutional credibility and diversification track record, while Mallaby makes the bull case for bitcoin’s finite supply and upside potential. Hosts: Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Mentioned on the Episode: SPDR Gold Shares (GLD): The largest and most highly traded physical gold ETF, holding bullion in secure London vaults. It carries an expense ratio of 0.40 percent. This is just for information; it is not a trading recommendation. Rebecca Patterson, “Gold as an Equity Hedge Requires Patience,” Financial Times “CLARITY Act Countdown: Crypto Bill Misses July 4 Target, August 7 Deadline Looms,” Yahoo Finance “Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey 2026,” World Gold Council Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
Jul 1

Two Brits Unpack America’s 250th Birthday + The Cultural Civil War

America’s 250th birthday is the talk of the nation. But the more important story might be what the milestone reveals about the fragile bargain between democracy and markets, and whether the republic can survive its own cultural divisions. Host: Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: Martin Wolf, Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times Mentioned on the Episode: Martin Wolf, The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism: A Diagnosis of Decline and Prescription for Repair Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
Jun 23

What Will the Fed Become Under Chair Kevin Warsh? + Greenspan's Legacy

In this episode of The Spillover, host Rebecca Patterson and former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Roger W. Ferguson Jr. reflect on the legacy of recently deceased former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, and examine what may lie ahead for the Fed under its new chair Kevin Warsh. Hosts: Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: Roger W. Ferguson Jr., Steven A. Tananbaum Distinguished Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR); Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman (1999–2006) Description: On this episode of The Spillover, cohost Rebecca Patterson speaks with CFR Distinguished Fellow for International Economics Roger Ferguson about Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting as Chair of the Federal Reserve, which played out largely as predicted. To bring in fresh perspectives, Warsh has created five task forces. They cover communication, the inflation mandate, productivity and jobs, data collection, and a balance sheet framework. Well-led task forces have historically moved the Fed forward, but progress will likely be uneven and slower than hoped. As Roger Ferguson notes, “This is the kind of thing where you want to measure twice, cut once. Once you make the change, you're gonna have to live with it for a period of time.” Current conditions point to a rate hike rather than an ease. Core inflation appears stuck above three percent, energy-driven price pressures from the Iran war remain unresolved, while labor market and financial conditions are resilient. The Fed works with blunt tools and within limited frameworks. Its single national interest rate cannot target individual sectors like housing or specific prices, and its goal remains controlling inflation rather than propping up housing, or equity prices. The Fed also never established a clear framework for when and how to use its balance sheet as a monetary or financial-stability tool, or how quickly to unwind quantitative easing. AI is currently acting as an inflationary force, not a disinflationary one. It is driving a surge in capital expenditures that should push market rates somewhat higher to balance increased demand for capital. Patterson and Ferguson discuss the life of Alan Greenspan—including his daily engagement with the U.S. economy for over fifty years, his habit of tracking unconventional indicators like railroad car loadings, and the fact that he was more often right than wrong on major issues. As Ferguson notes, Greenspan was part of a group of economic policymakers in the second half of the 20th century that helped the U.S. economy grow globally, overcoming the Soviet Union. Mentioned on the Episode: Sebastian Mallaby, “Alan Greenspan Understood Power and Was Not Afraid to Wield It,” The Washington Post “Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement,” Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
Jun 19

"A Job Beats a Handout" + Why the World Bank Is Betting Everything on Employment

In this episode of The Spillover, host Sebastian Mallaby and CFR President Michael Froman speak with former U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and World Bank President Ajay Banga about the global jobs challenge facing millions of young people in emerging markets. Hosts: Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Michael Froman, CFR President Guests: Gina Raimondo, Distinguished Fellow, CFR; Former U.S. Secretary of Commerce (2021–2025) Ajay Banga, President, World Bank Group Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
Jun 10

SpaceX Goes Public + What IPOs Tell Us About Capital Markets

The scale of the SpaceX IPO is dominating financial headlines, but the more important story might be what the sale reveals about the structure of modern capital markets, corporate governance, and the blurry line between public and private investing. This episode unpacks what the numbers actually show, why much of the popular narrative is overblown, and what investors should actually be paying attention to. Hosts: Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) We discuss: How the SpaceX IPO could raise around $75 billion, making it the largest IPO in history, and value the company at $1.77 trillion. How subsequent IPOs by Anthropic and OpenAI could bring a wave of funding valued at close to $200 billion in total. Why the equity supply panic is overblown. SpaceX's alarming governance structure, under which Musk serves as CEO, CTO, and chairman simultaneously, holding a supermajority of votes despite a minority equity stake. How growth equity, unlike traditional private equity, offers zero oversight, often granting founders supervoting shares and investor loyalty pledges that amount to anti-governance rather than governance. How SpaceX's initial index weight will be tiny, since only a small fraction of the company will actually be publicly floated. How the S&P's profitability requirement is a deliberate lesson from the dot-com bust. Why SpaceX's revenue projections sound dazzling but tell only half the story, given that estimated capital expenditure could far outpace revenue through the end of the decade. Mentioned on the Episode: “IPOs: Number and Proceeds,” U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Jason Dean, “U.S. Officials Said to Discuss Taking Stakes in AI Companies,” The Information Natalia Emanuel, Emma Harrington, and Amanda Pallais, “Remote Work Leaves Younger Workers Sidelined,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

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Trailer

Introducing The Spillover

How do critical international developments shape economic and financial markets worldwide? Each week, The Spillover examines the ripple effects of global events across policy, geopolitics, economics, technology, and finance. This podcast helps you better understand what’s happening, and why it matters to businesses, the markets, and the world. Hosts: Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

5

out of 5

25 Ratings

Great content and very engaging format

Mar 21

TBN4life

Excellent podcast. Highly engaging and informative. Just the right amount of substance; smart but not too wonky. Great chemistry between hosts.
A new fan!

Mar 7

justsomekid

Brilliant and fresh take on what’s going on now in the global economy
Fast Paced & Informative

Feb 24

PodsforPeoplePayingAttention

Enjoyed the episode on the Supreme Court ending the tariffs. The show flies by and you realize you learned a lot. The host was very likable.
A whirlwind discussion of the fragile four economies and worldwide implications …

Feb 15

Dr. Eddey

The goals of this podcast were met without exception and in an entertaining fashion. Looking forward to the next episode!

How do critical international developments shape economic and financial markets worldwide? Each week, The Spillover examines the ripple effects of global events across policy, geopolitics, economics, finance, and technology. This podcast helps you better understand what’s happening, and why it matters to businesses, global markets, and the world.