Always fun to see investors trying to piece together the same puzzle right now, why the AI infrastructure sell-off is starting?? But there are many reasons, not just one. One important factor is just good ‘ole liquidity, or the potential lack thereof. Joe Duarte of Joe’s Smart Money Passport flagged that the Chicago Fed’s financial conditions index rose last week, a sign the September rate hike is finally working its way into the system and tightening things up, and that scarcity of liquidity is exactly what has traders rethinking AI and semiconductor stocks. You can see it in Caterpillar, Micron, and the whole AI infrastructure complex selling off, with the bears calling the glory days over. As an optimist and a long-term investor, I think it is too soon for them to celebrate. The most exposed corner is the debt-fueled NeoClouds like CoreWeave, because in a higher-rate world the interest on all that debt becomes a real problem, which is the concern Kevin Bagholder laid out on the show last week. Regardless of their debt, I never understood the arbitrage play when you could just own the hyperscalers or Nvidia, and in a future this uncertain, where Meta and Alphabet keep shipping new frontier models and OpenAI and Anthropic risk getting commoditized, I would rather own the Nasdaq 100 and chill. If you want international diversification, the Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF is approaching its 200-day and looks a lot better than a KOSPI that fell another 7%. On earnings, Bank of America looked awful, but I see that as an execution story rather than a macro one, while Goldman, Citi, and JPMorgan held up and BlackRock just keeps expanding margins quarter after quarter. I also give an update on my own margin balance and why I held off selling into yesterday’s crash, break down the narrative behind Micron’s selloff tied to a Chinese memory breakthrough, and share a brilliant Attio commercial that finally makes agentic AI click, along with a little compounding experiment going back to the iPhone launch in 2007. Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. You can find every episode on Substack, YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, and iHeart Radio. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore. Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com Timestamps:0:00 Intro & market overview0:29 Margin balance & interest rates2:11 CoreWeave debt & NeoClouds5:28 Taiwan Semi earnings6:21 Economic data & Fed policy7:08 Bank earnings: BofA vs Goldman/JPM9:45 Joe Duarte / NFCI financial conditions11:01 M2 money supply & liquidity11:40 AI infrastructure selloff (Caterpillar, Micron)14:27 BlackRock Q3 earnings16:54 MetaMuse AI market briefings20:28 Attio agentic AI commercial28:24 Outro & sign-off Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. #investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #investing101 #personalfinance #wealthbuilding #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #AI #semiconductors #Nvidia #CoreWeave #NeoClouds #Nasdaq #QQQ #Micron #BlackRock #TaiwanSemi #bankearnings $NVDA $CRWV $QQQ $SMH $MU $CAT $TSM $GS $BLK $FRDM