AI Economics Research Podcast

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A podcast where AI hosts explain central bank and economics research papers. Each episode breaks down academic work in a clear conversational format, covering monetary policy, inflation, forecasting, macroeconomics, and financial stability.

  1. 16h ago

    FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS: Does Money Supply Really Predict Inflation? (Explained)

    This episode dives into a Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis research paper asking a crucial question: Do monetary aggregates actually help forecast inflation? We break down the paper's novel approach using neural networks and kernel regression to evaluate money's predictive power for US inflation in the early 2000s, explaining the findings in plain English. For more details, find the original paper at https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlwp/10440/original, and we welcome your feedback and discussion at feedback@econpod.org. This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general audience. Source paper: FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS Does Money Matter in Inflation Forecasting? - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2009.030 Keywords: Inflation, Money Supply, Forecasting, Macroeconomics, Central Banking, Neural Networks

    7 min

  2. May 29

    FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS: How Combining Recursive and Rolling Forecasts Boosts Accuracy (Explained)

    This episode dives into a Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis research paper that examines how to make economic forecasts more accurate, particularly in an environment of structural change. We break down how combining "recursive" (using all available data) and "rolling" (using only recent data) forecasting methods can significantly improve prediction quality. Learn about this innovative strategy and share your feedback at feedback@econpod.org, or read the full paper at https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlwp/9611/original. This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general audience. Source paper: FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS Improving Forecast Accuracy by Combining Recursive and Rolling - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2008.028 Keywords: forecasting, macroeconomics, structural change, central banking, model averaging, forecast accuracy

    9 min

  3. May 23

    Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development: OECD: Predicting Recessions – Why 'Wisdom of Crowds' Rivals Machine Learning (Explained)

    This episode delves into an OECD research paper that challenges conventional wisdom on forecasting recessions. We explore how a "wisdom of crowds" approach, averaging predictions from multiple simple models, can be as effective as advanced machine learning techniques like Random Forests for predicting economic downturns in OECD countries. Do you have thoughts on the best forecasting methods? Share them with us at feedback@econpod.org. This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general audience. Source paper: Harnessing the wisdom - Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2025/12/harnessing-the-wisdom-of-crowds-to-assess-recession-risks-in-oecd-countries_d197200d/46880adc-en.pdf Keywords: Recession, Economic Forecasting, Macroeconomics, Machine Learning, Wisdom of Crowds, OECD

    8 min

  4. May 16

    Bank of England: Uncovering 'Non-Standard Errors' – How Researcher Choices Sway Economic Results (Explained)

    This episode explains a Bank of England Staff Working Paper, "Non-standard errors," by Albert J Menkveld et al., exploring how variations in researcher choices introduce significant "non-standard errors" into scientific findings. We break down their study of 164 teams testing hypotheses on the same data, revealing these errors are substantial, decrease with peer feedback, and are often underestimated by participants. Have thoughts or questions on how researcher bias impacts economic insights? Send them to feedback@econpod.org. This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general audience. Source paper: Keywords: non-standard errors, research methodology, scientific uncertainty, economics research, central banking, data analysis

    8 min

  5. May 8

    Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports: Federal Reserve: How to Guarantee Honest Information Disclosure from Regulators? Cryptography is Key (Explained)

    This episode dives into a Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report that explores a critical challenge in information disclosure: how to ensure a sender, like a bank regulator, can truly commit to a disclosure rule without manipulating signals after the fact. We'll break down how the paper introduces 'Receiver-Private Certified Bayesian Persuasion,' revealing why cryptography, specifically secure two-party computation, is not just a tool but a necessary condition to prevent ex-post information suppression in economic settings like bank stress tests. This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general audience. Source paper: MAY 2026 and Cryptography Bayesian Persuasion and Cryptography - Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports https://doi.org/10.59576/sr.1194 Keywords: central banking, financial stability, information disclosure, stress testing, cryptography, economic commitment

    9 min

  6. May 4

    Bank of England: How UK Recessions Make Negative Income Shocks More Likely (Explained)

    This episode breaks down a new Bank of England research paper that explores how economic cycles, like recessions, impact the stability of earnings for UK households. It reveals that during downturns, negative income shocks become more frequent, even if the overall spread of income changes remains similar, and introduces a new model to track these crucial dynamics for policymakers. Tune in to understand why this matters for financial stability and macroeconomic policy, and share your thoughts with us at feedback@econpod.org. This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general audience. Source paper: Modelling income risk dynamics in - Bank of England https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2025/modelling-income-risk-dynamics-in-the-uk-a-parametric-approach.pdf Keywords: Income Risk, UK Economy, Macroeconomics, Financial Stability, Central Banking, Earnings Dynamics

    7 min

  7. May 3

    Bank of England: Picking the Right Tools for Macroeconomic Model Estimation (Explained)

    This episode breaks down a recent Bank of England working paper, exploring the best econometric methods for accurately estimating structural parameters in complex economic models. We demystify Local Projections (LP) versus Vector Autoregressions (VAR), and compare Impulse Response Function (IRF) matching with Indirect Inference. Discover why Indirect Inference is often the more robust and reliable approach for central banks and researchers. This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general audience. Source paper: Local Projections vs. VARs for - Bank of England https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2025/local-projections-vs-vars-for-structural-parameter-estimation.pdf Keywords: DSGE models, Econometrics, Macroeconomics, Indirect Inference, VAR models, Local Projections

    8 min

  8. May 2

    Bank for International Settlements: Unlocking Financial Stability with AI-Powered Market Monitoring (Explained)

    This episode delves into a groundbreaking research paper from the Bank for International Settlements, exploring how artificial intelligence is being harnessed to monitor and predict financial market stress. We break down a novel approach that combines recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to forecast market dysfunction with large language models (LLMs) to explain the underlying drivers. Discover how this dual AI system can identify "canaries in the coal mine" like deviations in currency arbitrage, offering early warnings for financial stability. This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general audience. Source paper: Harnessing artificial - Bank for International Settlements https://www.bis.org/publ/work1291.pdf Keywords: Financial Stability, Forecasting, Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, Central Banking, Market Stress

    7 min
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A podcast where AI hosts explain central bank and economics research papers. Each episode breaks down academic work in a clear conversational format, covering monetary policy, inflation, forecasting, macroeconomics, and financial stability.

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