Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief

Axel Adler Jr.
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A five-day-a-week morning podcast on Bitcoin market structure, on-chain data, ETF flows, derivatives, macro risk, and key signals for active investors. Each episode turns the latest Adler AM brief into a clear, data-driven audio update. Not financial advice.

  1. 1d ago

    Bitcoin is moving onto exchanges and increasing sell pressure, while stablecoins are leaving

    This brief is about the reversal in flows from May to the present. The logic is simple: BTC inflows to exchanges increase supply pressure, while stablecoin outflows deprive the market of fuel for a rebound.

    22 min

  2. 2d ago

    The Puell Multiple is declining - miners are entering the stress zone

    Miner metrics have entered a stress zone comparable to post-halving drawdowns, but the market has not yet reached a full-scale capitulation on the scale of 2018 and 2022. The key question is whether the Puell 30DMA will hold above 0.50, or whether the market will shift into survival mode.

    22 min

  3. 3d ago

    $12B Left the Network, Loss-Taking Sales Dominate

    Capital is leaving the Bitcoin network, and participant behavior confirms a capitulation regime - sales are being made at a loss. This brief examines how close the current stress is to the March extremes and what needs to happen for the regime to change.

    18 min

  4. 4d ago

    22 Days of Net Losses: MVRV Z Cooled to 0.32

    For 22 straight days, the market has been realizing net losses. But MVRV Z has already cooled to 0.32, versus a historical average of 1.71. Stress is there. Overheating is gone. What this means for Bitcoin right now, I break down in Morning Brief #187.

    21 min

  5. 5d ago

    Price is rising, Open Interest is falling: a rebound without new leverage

    Bitcoin bounced 3.7% off $60K, but Open Interest fell 6% with positive funding - a short-covering rebound, not new leverage. Watch OI for confirmation.

    18 min

  6. Jun 5

    Bitcoin Tests the February Low: $7B in Losses, Nearest Support $54K

    Bitcoin is testing the February low, while the current net realized loss of -$7B is already heavier than it was directly at the February price low. At the same time, it is still below the peak of winter capitulation at -$14B. The key observation - this time, seller pressure is building as price approaches the bottom, rather than fading before it.

    21 min

  7. Jun 4

    $62K Under Pressure Again: Fear at the Extreme

    Over the past month, Bitcoin has pulled back after the May recovery and returned to a test of the February low at 60K - the level that became the local bottom after the decline from the cycle peak of 125K. Against this backdrop, the market structure index shows weakening without capitulation, while the crowd sentiment index has fallen into extreme fear.

    22 min

  8. Jun 3

    Bearish impulse accelerated to -59: taker-order pressure is moving negative again

    Over the past month, the market has pulled back from the May highs to February levels. Both charts capture the same reversal, but at different speeds: the slow Bitcoin Impulse has already dropped to -59, while average monthly demand from takers has only now broken below the zero line.

    20 min
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About

A five-day-a-week morning podcast on Bitcoin market structure, on-chain data, ETF flows, derivatives, macro risk, and key signals for active investors. Each episode turns the latest Adler AM brief into a clear, data-driven audio update. Not financial advice.

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