MBA Training Finance

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MBA Training Finance. Daily strategy in corporate finance, FP&A, M&A, treasury and ESG, for finance leaders and aspiring CFOs. New episode every day at mba-training.com.

  1. 1d ago

    30-year Treasury yield at 24-year high: stress test debt at 6%

    Oil above $102 pushed the 30-year Treasury yield to 5.683% and the 10-year to 5.342%, levels last seen in 2002. Is the driver Fed repricing, as Bank of America argues, or a term premium driven by US government debt, as JPMorgan argues? The episode leans toward JPMorgan, citing the bear steepener, while treating Thursday's solid 30-year auction as a fragile window. You will be able to explain term premium and credit spread, weigh short versus long funding against your maturity wall, see how higher risk-free rates lift cost of equity, and reprice 24 months of maturities at Pimco's 6% ten-year scenario against your interest coverage covenant. 0:00 Oil above $100 lifts Treasury yields 1:26 Term premium and the bear steepener 2:33 JPMorgan vs Bank of America on causes 3:58 Pimco's 6% ten-year scenario 4:51 Short vs long debt and cost of equity 7:07 Stress test maturities at 6%

  2. 4d ago

    Asset life vs debt tenor: SpaceX's $40bn chip deal

    Can you fund four-year Nvidia hardware with thirty-year paper and keep an investment-grade rating? SpaceX is trying, with roughly $10bn of bank loans and $30bn of bonds led by Apollo, and the position here is that the structure sells residual value rather than credit. The episode walks through the BBB threshold, the June $25bn deal that drew $90bn of orders then traded near 85 cents with a 2.27 point spread, Michael Burry's $176bn depreciation claim, and the Bank of England's circular arrangements warning. You leave with a three-part test, life, lock and residual, plus the CoreWeave, Meta and Blue Owl precedents, an asset-life ladder to build, and the purchase obligations footnote to check. 0:00 Asset life versus debt tenor mismatch 1:09 Why $10bn loans plus $30bn bonds 2:32 Three claims about chip collateral tested 4:51 Life, lock, residual: the CFO test 6:13 The refinancing bet, costed 7:07 Mid-cap version: covenants and purchase obligations

  3. 4d ago

    Schneider Electric's PTC deal: the 42% premium test

    Schneider Electric agreed to pay $205 a share in cash for PTC, a 42.3% premium and about $22.6 billion in equity value, and its own shareholders cut roughly 15 billion euros of market value the same day. The position here is that the strategic slide matters less than the financing structure: the price only looks defensible at 13 times 2027 adjusted EBITA once 800 million euros of revenue synergies are counted, and those are the hardest to deliver. You come away able to separate cost from revenue synergies, read a bridge facility and accelerated bookbuild, track net debt to EBITDA against a Category A rating, and tell EPS accretion apart from a return on capital employed that clears WACC. 0:00 The $22.6bn price and 42% premium 1:42 Synergy math: 21x, 17x, 13x EBITA 2:34 Bridge financing and the equity raise 3:58 Leverage, net debt to EBITDA, Category A ratings 5:57 EPS accretion versus ROCE by year five 7:03 PTC's recurring revenue and what to watch

  4. Oct 2

    AI debt issuance: what $450bn does to your spreads

    Does a Bank of England warning about AI borrowing change anything for a CFO in packaging or healthcare services? The position here is yes, because you borrow in the same pond. The Financial Policy Committee's 25 September record flags opacity and circular arrangements, Morgan Stanley puts AI-related issuance near $450 billion by early September, and JP Morgan sees about $4.1 trillion of debt-financed capex to 2030. You leave able to read the evidence already in prices: SoftBank's 8.625% to 9.75% coupons, hyperscaler ABS at 150 basis points over the five-year Treasury, CLO demand clustering on double-B names, and Goldman's $510 billion capacity counterargument. 0:00 Circular arrangements in AI financing explained 1:35 Sizing AI debt: $450bn and $4.1trn 3:00 Why CLO buckets set your loan pricing 4:03 Hyperscaler ABS spreads widen over Treasuries 5:58 Goldman's capacity argument against the worry 7:37 Repricing your 18-month maturity schedule

  5. Oct 1

    AI concentration risk: what it does to bank NPL ratios

    KKR's co-CEO flagged overcrowding in AI-related lending, and the question here is whether bank credit dashboards can see it. The position: they cannot. Cost of risk at 30 to 40 basis points and a eurozone NPL ratio near 1.9 percent describe 2023 to 2025 default behaviour, not what happens if AI capital spending disappoints. Coverage ratios only cushion loans already flagged, and IFRS 9 staging models watch borrowers one at a time. You come away knowing how to read cost of risk, NPL ratio, coverage ratio and Stage 1 to Stage 2 migration together, how to treat Moody's and S&P AI-exposure estimates, and how to build a correlated AI capex stress overlay. 0:00 KKR's AI concentration warning explained 0:46 Why cost of risk looks suspiciously calm 1:27 Eurozone NPL ratio as lagging indicator 2:06 Coverage ratio and rating agency AI data 2:51 IFRS 9 staging misses correlated exposure 4:17 Running one correlated AI stress scenario

  6. Sep 30

    $100/kWh batteries: where EV break-even math breaks

    Does a $100 per kilowatt-hour battery cell price actually make an electric vehicle cost-competitive with petrol? The answer here is no. The $100 figure is a cell-level number, and once housing, cooling, wiring and safety electronics are added, pack cost sits nearer $130 to $140. An automotive finance leader explains why he shelved a mid-size crossover when the pack hit forty percent of the bill of materials. You come away able to rebuild an EV break-even model on real pack cost, test the three assumptions that fail (price premium, volume, residual value), read BloombergNEF cell data as directional, account for falling used EV values after the Hertz Tesla sell-off, and compete on five-year total cost of ownership. 0:00 Why a crossover program got shelved 0:48 Cell price versus pack cost 2:00 Three places EV break-even breaks 2:38 Residual values and lease payments 3:12 LFP cells and sub-$80 packs 3:44 Rebuilding models on total cost of ownership

  7. Sep 29

    Buybacks vs dividends: returning an oil price windfall

    Oil prices jumped on the back of the Iran war and TotalEnergies raised both its ordinary dividend and its buyback. The question here is not how much cash goes back to shareholders but through which channel. The position taken: a dividend is a permanent promise, a buyback is discretionary, so windfall cash belongs in buybacks while the dividend stays boring and progressive. You come away with a test for overcommitment, the break-even oil price where operating cash flow covers spending plus the dividend, and Total's move toward the low fifties per barrel. Also covered: Shell's comparable position, BP's 2020 payout cut, ExxonMobil's Pioneer purchase, and when buybacks at cycle peaks destroy value. 0:00 TotalEnergies returns its war-price cash 0:38 Dividends are a marriage, buybacks a fling 1:38 Break-even oil price as the safety test 2:06 Mistaking a price spike for a trend 3:14 Buying back shares at cycle peaks 4:02 Return cash through the channel you can switch off

  8. Sep 27

    Biobucks: why reversion rights beat headline deal value

    What should a biotech CFO actually negotiate in a milestone-based pharma partnership, when the headline number is mostly contingent? The position here is blunt: a 900 million dollar deal with 40 million upfront is aspiration, and with only 5 to 7 percent of oncology drugs entering Phase 1 reaching approval, most of that value should be priced at pennies on the dollar. You walk away able to rebuild deal value using stage by stage transition probabilities, write reversion rights that return the compound and the safety file together, set diligence obligations with minimum annual spend and fixed development dates, and judge an 8 to 15 percent royalty range against a thin upfront. Vertex style clean reversion is the benchmark. 0:00 When a partner walks away mid-trial 0:49 Biobucks: reading the real deal value 1:35 Reversion rights and data return clauses 2:29 Diligence obligations that stop shelving 3:27 What to trade and what to protect 3:53 Rebuilding deal value with transition probabilities

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MBA Training Finance. Daily strategy in corporate finance, FP&A, M&A, treasury and ESG, for finance leaders and aspiring CFOs. New episode every day at mba-training.com.

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