Super Tuesdays with Chris Cillizza and Chuck Todd

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Longtime political analysts Chris Cillizza and Chuck Todd discuss the latest political news and how those stories will affect upcoming elections. 

Episodes

  1. 5h ago

    Michigan Democratic Primary Goes Down To The Wire

    Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza burn the midnight oil for a rare Wednesday drop, breaking down a Michigan Senate primary that became the most expensive Democratic Senate primary contest in U.S. history and a genuine proxy war over the party's future. With Abdul El-Sayed leading Haley Stevens by a far narrower margin than the polling suggested, the guys unpack why Michigan is so hard to poll, why Black voters are routinely under-sampled in primary surveys, and what it says that the Whitmer-and-labor-backed machine kept this close — a double-digit El-Sayed win, Chuck argues, would have been a genuine indictment of the establishment. They then game out the general: why Republicans will now dump money into Michigan they'd never have spent against Stevens, why an Islamophobic campaign against El-Sayed could backfire spectacularly, and why the stakes for the progressive movement in 2028 are enormous either way. Plus: how the county-by-county map becomes a strategic document for every 2028 campaign now that Michigan sits in the early window. From there they widen the lens to the sleeper races nobody's watching — Kansas, where megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton emerged from a crowded Democratic field and will face Republican incumbent Roger Marshall in November, plus South Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa, where tariffs, deportations, and the ag economy have made supposedly safe seats interesting. They dig into the ugly Max Miller saga in Ohio ahead of the ballot deadline, why Trump's refusal to push him out is grimly consistent, and the human cost to a family caught in the middle. Then it's a bracing riff on whether Trump actually wants any Republican not named Trump to win in 2028, bearish takes on Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris, a Chuck rant about why abolishing the Senate and packing the Court is magical thinking, and a closing lament about the Nats' fire sale. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 A swing state picks its most liberal Senate nominee ever  00:41 Why Michigan polling is almost always wrong 00:59 The under-polled Black vote and why this race stayed close 01:48 Stevens had the machine — labor, Whitmer, and Wayne County 02:11 Double-digit El-Sayed win is an indictment of the establishment 03:18 The Bernie problem 05:18 Republicans will now spend far more against El-Sayed 05:44 Big money got rejected 06:29 Mike Rogers has never been a great fundraiser 07:16 This is now the only real Republican pickup opportunity 08:16 Maine goes regional — and why Collins is in big trouble 09:20 A loss is a body blow to the progressive movement 13:57 Why they held the episode until Wednesday 14:22 To Kansas: Adam Hamilton, wins the Democratic primary 15:15 Cook moves the race to Likely Republican  16:36 School funding, Johnson County & the issue also lifting Rob Sand 17:49 From anti-Brownback coalition to an actual Democratic Party 18:35 Why South Dakota, Iowa, Nebraska, and Kansas are all suddenly live   19:16 Is MAGA angry enough at Thune to punish Rounds? 20:13 Tariffs and deportations have hammered the ag economy 20:38 Nebraska's hard ceiling vs. Kansas's higher ceiling 22:26 Which is closer in November — Kansas or Nebraska? 23:29 Why the Islamophobia play could backfire  24:29 Republicans' $300M advantage and where they'll actually spend it 27:27 Governing wing vs. movement wing 28:02 Why AOC engaged in Michigan but never for Graham Platner 29:03 The nationalization test: Talarico-Paxton or El-Sayed-Rogers? 32:41 The Max Miller deadline 33:38 Why the orchestrated exit didn't happen 34:00 Bernie Moreno, his daughter, and the family at the center of it 36:31 Why this is arguably bigger than the Platner story 38:52 Trump doesn't close the deal 39:53 Trump never accepts assault allegations as disqualifying 40:15 Trump puts himself before the party, always 41:06 Will he actually spend the MAGA Inc. money? 41:52 Trump doesn't want Vance or Rubio to win in 2028 43:41 Don Jr.'s changing online behavior — and what it might signal 45:05 Guilfoyle, Newsom & the weirdest political fact in America 45:31 Bearish on Gavin Newsom 47:38 Harris on abolishing the Electoral College and packing the Court 48:09 Changing the rules because you can't win under them 49:20 Why the Senate exists as a check on extremism 51:33 Both parties crashed this car 51:56 Why Schumer's anti-corruption bills are useless political theater 53:52 Congress was supposed to be the anti-corruption bureau 54:08 The Nats fire sale 55:26 Great franchises try to win now AND later 55:48 Manfred, the Dodgers & the coming salary-cap fight See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Michigan Democratic Primary Goes Down To The Wire

  2. Jul 28

    The Democrats’ 2028 Primary Map Is a Nightmare for Progressives

    Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza dig into the biggest structural story of the 2028 race: the DNC's proposed new Democratic nominating calendar, which would open in South Carolina and run through Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, and Virginia. The guys make the case that a calendar starting in the least progressive early state and ending in another one looks engineered to stop a Bernie- or AOC-style insurgent — then debate who it actually helps. Chris sees a raised bar and a no-backup-plan trap for Kamala Harris; Chuck argues the map is a dream scenario for Wes Moore, with three heavily African-American states and two big military populations, while making the counterintuitive case that a splintered field could still let a progressive win South Carolina on a McCain-in-2008-style plurality. Along the way they weigh Buttigieg's veterans play, Mark Kelly's underrated prospects, Pritzker's self-funding edge, and why they'd have picked Arizona over Nevada. From there they turn to an idea from Chuck's wife for reinventing the White House Correspondents' Dinner — hand the South Lawn to reporters and their families once a year, and keep the president and the TV cameras out of it — before tackling the deepening mystery around Mitch McConnell's health and monthslong public silence, and why the conspiracy theories collapse the moment you ask what the upside would be. Then it's on to the stakes of next week's Michigan Senate primary between Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens, which both sides are treating as the first existential fight over the Democratic Party's identity, and how Zohran Mamdani may have reshaped it. They close, as always, with the Nats: the looming trade deadline, why Foster Griffin is expendable but CJ Abrams isn't, and the case for building a brand around the team's young Black stars. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 The DNC's proposed 2028 Democratic nominating calendar 01:00 The six-state lineup  01:42 Why South Carolina and Virginia matter most 02:56 Going first means six months of attention, not a week 03:52 Is South Carolina good for Kamala Harris? 04:54 Win the Black vote, win South Carolina 06:32 The Black vote isn't a monolith  07:51 The calendar is a dream scenario built for Wes Moore 08:34 Is Jon Ossoff the real winner? The neighbor-state theory 10:45 A map that looks designed to stop a Bernie or AOC insurgency 12:24 The progressive math — how 15% could be enough 13:04 A four-state path for the left: fourth, first, second, first 14:41 South Carolina as a race-ender i 15:23 The McCain lesson: 42% as a loss in 2000, 33% as a win in 2008 17:43 Southern Super Tuesday was built to stop liberals  20:08 Use the primary calendar to build the party 21:52 South Carolina's growth & the rural Black voters Democrats ignore 23:00 Why start where you can't win in November? 25:26 Why it's actually a good map for Pete Buttigieg 27:53 Why the expensive states favor self-funder JB Pritzker 30:21 Michigan gets its own week — just as the Israel issue splits the party 31:24 Why Nevada was picked for the interest groups 32:10 White House Correspondents' Dinner and why it felt so off 35:13 The pitch: hand over the South Lawn to the press corps  36:18 Keep the cameras and the president out 38:16 Trump will always make it about himself  40:13 The Mitch McConnell timeline 41:20 A proof-of-life photo — but not a proof-of-speech one 43:03 McConnell has always been intensely private  45:23 The most important Democratic primary in the country 45:49 Why Abdul El-Sayed is all but running for president 46:56 Mamdani's "arrest Netanyahu" speech reshaped the movement 48:24 Gary Peters, Whitmer & the raised stakes 50:00 The morning-after narratives already written for either outcome 53:36 El-Sayed's real problem: little traction in the Black community 54:00 To the Nats: the trade deadline is the biggest day  54:52 Trade Foster Griffin — but don't you dare trade CJ Abrams 57:03 The case for building a DC brand around Abrams & James Wood See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    The Democrats’ 2028 Primary Map Is a Nightmare for Progressives

  3. Jul 21

    Why The 2026 Fundamentals Spell Disaster For Trump's GOP

    With just 105 days until the 2026 midterms, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza use their last Super Tuesday before the sub-100-day mark to take stock of what they think they know. The headline: with Trump's approval stuck below 40, gas back over $4, an Iran conflict reigniting, and an ICE controversy dominating the news, nearly every fundamental points toward Republicans losing both chambers — and the guys argue the only thing standing between Democrats and a monster year is the Democrats themselves. They dig deep into the polling weeds, unpacking why the generic ballot has quietly become more of a party-ID number, why you can't compare it across cycles anymore, why independents are breaking hard left, and what to make of the model giving Democrats a 62% shot at the House while Republicans hold a 59% edge in the Senate. From there it's onto the races reshaping the map: South Carolina, where Trump ally Russell Frye jumps into the special and Lindsey Graham's appointed sister surprises everyone by running for a full term — a rare bit of GOP pragmatism that hands John Thune a much-needed win — and Maine, where Troy Jackson is set to be coronated at the Democratic convention and the ICE story has erased Susan Collins's post-Platner breathing room. Chuck and Chris also weigh the stalled Todd Blanche confirmation, the $400 million Qatari plane suddenly deemed too unsafe to fly, and why character and temperament remain the whole ballgame. Then they close on LeBron's looming decision — Heat, Cavs, or Sixers — and Chuck plugs the summer slate across the "Chuck Todd expanded universe." Timeline: 00:00 105 days out from the midterms 02:07 Why August, not July, is when politics really kicks off 03:01 Why campaigns no longer wait for Labor Day to run their hits 04:34 Trump's approval is stuck below 40 a recipe for losing both chambers 05:44 ICE story erases whatever Collins got from the Platner disaster 06:49 Democrats are more motivated 07:23 Arizona Republicans line up to nominate a candidate who can't win 08:08 Trump's primetime speech relitigating 2020 09:26 GOP candidates on the trail are running as far from Trump as possible 10:50 Trump is too lazy to be a dictator 11:54 On 2020, Trump is on an island — even his own party won't follow 14:14 The history: 20 of the last 22 midterms punish the president's party 15:05 The generic ballot vs. 2018 and 2010, for reference 15:51 Why the generic ballot is now really a party-ID number 17:31 Trust the trend lines, not the raw numbers 19:59 The StateNavigate Georgia poll that floored them 20:49 Why Democrats peak in summer polling  22:19 A smarter "informed ballot" experiment using Google search results 24:36 Democrats 62% to win the House, Republicans 59% to hold the Senate 25:20 Why the Senate number is lower than it should be  26:54 Iowa as the 50-yard line for a wave 27:42 The daunting Senate map for Dems 30:04 Why the 62% House number surprised Chris 31:52 The one thing that changed all summer — a possible new forever war 32:56 The math favors the GOP: Democrats are playing a road game 34:18 No swing districts left, and a country sorted to the bone 36:03 South Carolina: Trump ally Russell Frye jumps into the special 36:56 Graham's appointed sister surprises by running for a full term 37:30 A rare case of Trump and the GOP doing the pragmatic thing 41:13 Troy Jackson set for a coronation 42:53 The stalled Todd Blanche confirmation & the $1.8B slush fund 43:15 Why the ICE story is a real problem for Collins 44:02 Ambition as a drug — Homan, Bovino, Noem & the $50k question 45:09 The Odyssey movie and how online discourse isn't real life 47:07 The $400M Qatari plane is suddenly too unsafe to fly 48:07 Character and temperament as the whole ballgame 50:20 Quotes that aged badly 52:05 Trump as Grover Cleveland  53:34 LeBron's decision: Heat, Cavs, or Sixers 56:20 Miami and Denver as the best physical fits for a 40-year-old LeBron 57:34 The Hall of Fame "five rings table" and the chase for a fifth title 1:00:17 What the prediction markets say  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Why The 2026 Fundamentals Spell Disaster For Trump's GOP

  4. Jul 14

    Why Losing Lindsey Graham Is Trouble For Trump & The Senate's Vanishing Center

    Chris Cillizza and Chuck Todd open on a jolting weekend in politics: the sudden death of Lindsey Graham and the frantic — and faintly unseemly — scramble to replace him. Rather than relitigate Graham through the usual partisan lens, the guys argue that his loss, alongside the coming departures of Cornyn, Tillis, Cassidy, Durbin and others, amounts to a gutting of the Senate's dealmaking center, and they lay out their favorite framework for understanding him: the difference between "ideologues" and "politicians," and why the politicians are the ones who actually get things passed. They break down the near-term fallout for Trump, who just lost his most effective back-channel to skeptical senators and to Ukraine, and handicap the wide-open South Carolina race — from Henry McMaster's likely caretaker appointment to a crowded August primary featuring Pamela Evette, Nancy Mace, and a possible Trey Gowdy compromise play. From there it's on to two health stories the news cycle nearly buried — the mystery around Mitch McConnell's fall, pneumonia and rehab stay, and Trump's latest Walter Reed cognitive test — before a deep dive into Maine, where Susan Collins suddenly has no opponent after Graham Platner's exit and seven Democrats will fight it out at a 600-person nominating convention. Chuck and Chris debate whether Collins is now more or less vulnerable, take a spirited detour through New England blue bloods and Platner's "oyster farmer" branding, and skewer the knives-out world of political consultants. Then they close personal and sporty: their National Journal origin story, and a nerdy back-and-forth on the reinvented Home Run Derby, All-Star nostalgia, a World Baseball Classic pitch, and the Nats' latest heartbreak. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Welcome to Super Tuesdays  01:29 Lindsey Graham dies Saturday night of an aortic rupture 02:01 When death hits mid-campaign, everything accelerates  03:59 The "humans vs. aliens" acting analogy, applied to politicians 04:43 Ideologues vs. politicians — and why Graham was the latter 05:42 Democratic senators genuinely liked working with Graham 06:21 The real story: the gutting of the Senate's dealmaking center 11:33 Graham would've been a Democrat if he'd grown up in Oregon 14:26 Near-term fallout — Graham was Thune & Trump's whisperer 14:59 Why Todd Blanche's confirmation just got harder 16:14 Zelensky lost his best Trump whisperer, too 17:30 Republicans have functionally lost control of the Senate 19:37 An open South Carolina Senate seat comes once a generation 22:09 South Carolina's factional GOP sets up a free-for-all 24:43 A full six-year term raises the stakes  29:06 Could Trey Gowdy be the compromise candidate? 31:02 What is going on with Mitch McConnell? 35:45 The buried health story: Trump's new Walter Reed cognitive test 36:36 Should cognitive tests be mandatory for presidents over 75? 38:26 On Graham, Trump can only make it about himself 39:32 The Butler anniversary crowd-size claim 40:32 To Maine: Collins is the most vulnerable Republican  41:02 Handicapping the seven-Democrat nominating convention 45:07 Is Susan Collins more or less vulnerable than a month ago? 47:13 Why the right Democratic nominee could actually beat her 51:15 Platner's privilege & the "oyster farmer" brand 51:39 The knives-out world of nepo-baby campaign consultants 51:56 Chuck & Chris's National Journal origin story 54:35 Why "he's a farmer, not a politician" branding is hypnotic nonsense 56:20 To sports: the reinvented, 20-swing Home Run Derby 56:41 The Nats blow three leads  58:04 Empty-nesting & the streaming shows worth your night 59:42 All-Star nostalgia in the age of the MLB app and interleague play 1:02:42 A pitch for a two-week WBC break every July 1:04:25 The Futures Game & Nats prospect Eli Willits 1:05:06 Wrap-up: subscribe to Super Tuesdays See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Why Losing Lindsey Graham Is Trouble For Trump & The Senate's Vanishing Center

  5. Jul 7

    Trump’s Admission Of Corruption + Will Trump Break NATO? + Platner Mired In Scandal

    Chris Cillizza and Chuck Todd launch Super Tuesdays — the now-on-every-feed version of the show they've been doing together — with a wide-ranging conversation that runs from Trump's self-centered Fourth of July to the summer's most consequential Senate primaries.  First, Chris starts with the update that the USMNT lost to Belgium after President Trump intervened to get star striker Falorin Balogun’s red card overturned and wonders if Trump curses every sports team he involves himself with. He also weighs in on the latest developments surrounding Graham Platner. Then, the guys break down why Trump's 250th-anniversary flop and his eye-popping financial disclosure ($2.2 billion in his first year back, $1.4 billion of it from crypto) add up to what Chuck calls "late-stage Trumpism" — a president who's more isolated, less able to self-correct, and increasingly celebrating his own version of patriotism by himself. From there it's onto the world stage: Trump's trip to the NATO summit, his instinct to break the alliance, and why throwing a lifeline to a historically vulnerable Putin makes no strategic sense. The back half turns to the 2026 map and the 2028 shadow race. Chuck and Chris dig into Mallory McMorrow's exit and the now one-on-one Abdul El-Sayed–Haley Stevens fight in Michigan, the outsider-vs-insider dynamic driving Democratic primaries, and what the Black vote means from Detroit to Karen Bass's LA. They size up the Wes Moore–Pritzker–Buttigieg field, decode the Graham Platner drama in Maine and why Susan Collins stays chronically underrated, and offer a sharp consumer's guide to why the NYT and Fox polls tell such different stories. Then they close the way only these two would — Trump's alleged FIFA meddling ahead of USA–Belgium, a lesson on how corruption always comes back around, LeBron's next move, and a deep Nationals All-Star and trade-deadline dive. Timeline: 00:00 USMNT loses to Belgium  07:00 Welcome to Super Tuesdays 09:25 Chuck watched 90% of Trump's July 4th speech 09:45 How it compares to Reagan & the 1986 Statue of Liberty centennial 11:11 Gerald Ford's restrained 1976 bicentennial in an election year 11:31 Trump threw away years of 250th anniversary planning 12:44 Trump's financial disclosure: $2.2B in year one, $1.4B from crypto 13:16 The Trump Bible and the tchotchke economy 14:24 "You should've seen what they wanted to put in that disclosure" 15:45 No elected officials showed up to celebrate the 4th with Trump 16:46 Trump is celebrating his version of patriotism by himself 17:05 The K-shaped economy & why Trump is insulated from the 80% 18:37 The case that we've reached "late-stage Trumpism" 21:06 AI-written speeches Trump can't even stick to 22:00 Expect a staff exodus after the midterms 23:12 Trump will never give a "shellacking" concession speech 23:38 The GOP language shift from "socialists" to "communists" 24:15 Trump heads to the NATO summit — can he actually break NATO? 25:32 Trump the transactionalist & the FIFA-Qatar corruption aside 26:36 Trump, Putin, and the shared goal of weakening Europe 28:50 Putin has never been this vulnerable 31:11 Why Trump is drawn to strongmen and rogues 32:20 Trump has no lifelong friends — everyone he gets close to gets alienated 33:37 Transactional "friends" like Howard Lutnick 34:11 To the Senate: Mallory McMorrow drops out of Michigan 35:44 Democratic primary energy is outsider vs. insider 36:38 El-Sayed is a genuinely talented communicator 38:04 Jackson & Bernie's Michigan wins as a pattern 39:34 Progressives' persistent problem with the Black vote 42:06 Michigan is the Democratic-held seat the party overlooks 43:30 How Michigan slipped from the blue wall 44:46 If El-Sayed and Paxton both win, donors panic 45:37 The 2028 hunt for the "most electable" Democrat 47:32 The real dividing line: fix the institutions or blow them up 49:09 Pritzker is the overlooked progressive-with-a-record 51:07 Pete Buttigieg's Biden baggage is heavier than he thinks 51:35 The Graham Platner story brewing in Maine 51:56 Collins vs. Platner is basically a toss-up 52:38 Trump takes credit for FIFA siding with the US over Belgium 54:50 A generic Democrat would beat Collins by ten 57:23 NYT forecasting vs. Fox snapshot polling 59:53 The real battlegrounds: Iowa, Ohio, Alaska 1:00:11 Where Democrats find another seat — Kansas, Mississippi 1:02:04 Jolly vs. Byron Donalds & the closer-than-you-think governor's race 1:04:00 The World Cup, Balogun's red card & USA-Belgium 1:05:23 No other president would have intervened with FIFA 1:05:49 Left-leaning soccer fans rationalizing corruption that helps them 1:08:16 A birthright-citizen Balogun & soccer's Trump ambivalence 1:08:59 LeBron's "Decision Part 10" & Rich Paul's genius whiteboard 1:10:29 Why the Warriors fit LeBron's game 1:12:19 LeBron wants to play guard, not power forward 1:14:00 Nats All-Stars: James Wood & CJ Abrams snubs and starters 1:16:53 The Aug. 3 trade deadline: buyer, seller, or stand pat? 1:18:19 Abrams & Wood among the game's best Black players 1:18:45 Building the Nats around Black stars in a majority-Black city 1:19:59 Baseball's demographics & the "no Bubbas in Connecticut" bit See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Trump’s Admission Of Corruption + Will Trump Break NATO? + Platner Mired In Scandal

  6. Jul 6

    Introducing: Super Tuesdays with Chris Cillizza and Chuck Todd

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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About

Longtime political analysts Chris Cillizza and Chuck Todd discuss the latest political news and how those stories will affect upcoming elections. 

Information

  • Creator
    iHeartPodcast
  • Years Active
    2026
  • Episodes
    6
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    2026 iHeartMedia, Inc. © Any use of this intellectual property for text and data mining or computational analysis including as training material for artificial intelligence systems is strictly prohibited without express written consent from iHeartMedia
  • Show Website
    Super Tuesdays with Chris Cillizza and Chuck Todd