SpaceX Bagholder Podcast

Smellyfingernail
  • 5.0 (1)
  • Investing
  • Updated Weekly

Podcast about SpaceX from the world’s number one SpaceX bagholder

Episodes

  1. Oct 6

    Starship to Orbit, TSMC in Terafab?, AI progres

    00:00 - Back at $170, up ~15% in two sessions: the "visible incremental progress" trade 02:20 - Starship Flight 14: first Starlink V3s to orbit, engine-outs, and the call to go orbital 07:36 - Flight 15/16 NET dates vs reality: Raptor V3 engines pulled for cryo testing 09:08 - Terafab: Intel vs TSMC fighting over allocation, advanced facility ahead of schedule 13:32 - AI roundup: Grok 4.7 sucks, Opus 5.5 top dog, Meta's Muse vs Grokbot, Gemini 4, Reflection AI 28:25 - White House AI summit nothingburger, Anthropic's wet lab, Elon/Shivon split

  2. Sep 15

    AI "Pause"? + Massive construction progress

    00:00 - The AI "pause" / frontier pacing push, and why SpaceX shareholders hate it 06:45 - Construction pace: Starbase, TerraFab, Giga Texas fab, and the Louisiana island site 10:38 - Grok 4.7 still not out, now "Opus 5 tier"; Elon pivots hype to Grok 4.8 13:49 - Meta's Muse clones Grokbot, and why that's bullish for compute demand 16:30 - GPT-6 Astra: OpenAI is out of compute, the Microsoft-via-SpaceX angle 18:25 - CFO Brett Johnson at Goldman Sachs: $1.1B/month compute deal, 2027 guide cut to 5-10 GW 21:06 - Starship Flight 14: "revenue generating" but still slipping to Sept 19/22

  3. Sep 1

    Starbase LA, Openai vs Cursor, and more

    00:00 - Starbase Louisiana: $100B spaceport, $100M for 125,000 acres; Starship Flight 14 set for September 15 06:16 - Orbital AI data centers pulled forward to Q4 2027; NVIDIA Q2 earnings and TerraFab tenant speculation 09:53 - OpenAI roundup: Jalapeno chip vs NVIDIA, Cursor cut from ChatGPT subscriptions, Astra hacking report 18:51 - Grok 4.6 now on AWS, Google Cloud, and Azure; Starshield AI Pentagon contract 21:30 - Wrap-up and positions

  4. Aug 24

    OpenAI and Anthropic Q2 2026 numbers not good enough for SpaceX. Grokbot to the rescue?

    We discuss OpenAI and Anthropic's reported Q2 2026 numbers and whether or not their growth rates are sufficient for SpaceX's needs. Can Grokbot spur more growth? 00:00 - Intro: Anthropic and OpenAI Q2 revenue numbers, and why SpaceX bag holders care 03:40 - Fable 5 is the smartest model, but it's stuck at ~10% of Anthropic's revenue mix 05:07 - The math: OAI And Anthropic Revenues 07:26 - The two lanes of AI spend: building the app vs serving the customer (Duolingo example) 12:54 - Grokbot: from harness to wholesale employee replacement, and salary-sized token budgets 17:20 - September releases: GPT-6 Astra, Fable 5.1, and Grok 4.7 21:25 - Starship Flight 14 slips to September 15 — and will they catch the ship?

  5. Aug 18

    SpaceX's Todo list for the rest of 2026 to get to 300 by end of 2027

    To remain on track to get to 300 by january 2028, SpaceX needs to get these items done in 2026

  6. Aug 14

    SpaceX Completes Cursor Merger

    00:00 - The Cursor acquisition closes: Cursor's dual role at SpaceX — Grok training and driving usage 04:47 - Grok bot vs. OpenClaw: a managed agent at ~10x cheaper token prices 10:29 - The culture edge: acceleration vs. safety-minded competitors 11:57 - Deal financials: $60B all-stock, ARR doubled to $4B, Q3 AI segment set to turn profitable 15:49 - Terafab construction has started — ahead of the 2029-2030 consensus

  7. Aug 11

    SpaceX to 500b compute ARR by Q4 2027?

    Analysis on recent compute growth estimates and really the insane ramp available in 2027 00:00 - Highest morale yet: the $100B ARR math (2 GW × $50B/GW) 02:44 - 2027: is Elon's 10 GW target actually plausible? 03:55 - The build-out: locations, turbines, and the labor bottleneck 09:50 - Who pays: frontier labs, 50% margins, and the Microsoft workaround 16:55 - Demand check: OpenRouter tokens 6.4T → 69T in half a year 19:59 - NVIDIA's $500B fund → $6T valuation by 2028

  8. Aug 6

    SpaceX Q2 2026 Earnings Reaction

    low key best earnings report ive ever seen tbh 00:00 - Intro 00:36 - AI segment: revenue, compute buildout & capex 09:23 - Space segment & Starship 11:04 - Starlink & direct-to-cell 18:30 - Guidance & outlook 20:27 - NVIDIA exclusivity & orbital compute 25:22 - Position recap

  9. Jul 30

    SpaceX Earnings Preview Q2 2026

    An earnings preview/walkthrough and personal estimate for Q2 2026 SpaceX earnings 0:00 Intro & Q2 2026 expectations ($7.23B vs Street $6.87B) 0:38 Space Launch segment 1:34 Launch mix: customer vs. internal payloads 2:38 Starship R&D costs & segment losses 4:51 Connectivity segment: subscribers & ARPU 7:20 Government, enterprise & mobile revenue drivers 10:20 AI segment: Anthropic compute ramp 11:46 AI operating loss & adjusted EBITDA turning positive 13:41 Questions for management & wrap-up

  10. Jul 28

    Bagholder reacts to Starship flight 13, flight 14 announcements

    Successful flight 13 + elon announces flight 14 will land the ship and more

  11. Jul 25

    The Bagholder Journey Begins

    I am the worlds number one spacex bagholder Current position: 1529 shares, weighted average 209.70 x @daeron0x reddit @smellyfingernail

  • 11 Episodes

About

Podcast about SpaceX from the world’s number one SpaceX bagholder

Information

  • Creator
    Smellyfingernail
  • Years Active
    2026
  • Episodes
    11
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Smellyfingernail
  • Show Website
    SpaceX Bagholder Podcast

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