A model that fits your data isn't the same as a model that predicts accurately. In this episode, Dr. Philip Ramsey and Dr. Tiffany Rau make the case that science and engineering have a prediction crisis, and talk through what it takes to build models that hold up at conditions you haven't run yet. In this episode What "prediction" actually means: how a model performs at settings that weren't used to train itWhy complex systems break simple models, and what a nanoscale map of human brain tissue says about complexityLessons from hurricane forecasting, and why Tiffany took a programmer into the labPredictive models as learning tools, not just deliverablesProcess characterization, scale-down models, and thought experiments in drug developmentWhy the "optimum" in your design space may be somewhere you'd never want to operateA step-by-step workflow: quality data, space-filling designs, measurement system checks, machine learning, validation, and studying the modelWhat to do tomorrow: scope your first model small enough to finish, and learn from people who do this work every dayFurther reading Shapson-Coe A, et al. "A petavoxel fragment of human cerebral cortex reconstructed at nanoscale resolution." Science 384, eadk4858 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adk4858 — the Harvard–Google study Phil mentions: about 57,000 cells and 150 million synapses in roughly one cubic millimeter of cortex, 1.4 petabytes of data.Hosts Nathaniel Leies (host)Philip Ramsey, Ph.D. — Emeritus Professor of Statistics, University of New Hampshire; VP of Data Science and Analytics, Predictum Inc.Tiffany Rau, Ph.D. — Owner, Rau Consulting, global biotechnology consultant specializing in R&D, process development, and the commercialization of biopharmaceutical manufacturing processes-- Got a question? Want to hear your voice on a future episode? 📬 Write to us at beyondthebatch@predictum.com We read everything, and we'd love to feature listener questions on the show. ⭐ If this episode was useful, please subscribe, rate the show, and share it with someone who'd get value from it. 🌐 Visit us on https://beyondthebatch.io to learn more. -- Produced by Predictum Inc., in partnership with Rau Consulting. Questions, feedback, or a topic you'd like us to cover? Write to beyondthebatch@predictum.com. All platforms: beyondthebatch.io