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Britain's Independent Economic Think Tank

  1. 1d ago

    £45m to make one station step-free? | Growth, the Bank's QT losses and the universal credit trap

    David Belle, macro trader and founder of FINK, has written a report on Britain's economy and its debt. His diagnosis: Westminster has set the wrong incentives, and the blame then lands on pensioners, the rich or people on universal credit. He joins Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank, to work through it. They cover the Treasury's indemnity on the Bank of England's QT losses, £45m to make one station step-free, the M4 relief road, taxing land while cutting capital gains tax to 5%, the universal credit taper and Japanification. Damian brings new research on migration and wages outside London, and argues for entrepreneurs on the Monetary Policy Committee and an end to inheritance tax. Chapters0:00 Pints & Policy0:08 David's report: Britain's problem is incentives1:53 Skin in the game: a long-dated gilt4:43 America's long end v Britain's5:39 The Treasury insures the Bank's bond losses7:42 The QT pause and the "moron premium"8:50 Interest on reserves: what Reform miss10:27 Energy and structural inflation12:49 Growth first: £45m for a station14:19 M4 relief road and the Thames crossing16:01 Devolution: moving the problem out of London?17:31 Georgism: tax land, not enterprise19:23 Land v property, and stamp duty20:47 Tax the land, cut capital gains to 5%21:50 Which party would do it?24:03 Anti-business, anti-growth25:27 GDP per head and migration25:56 Wages After the Wave28:33 Universal credit: an incentive not to work30:42 Does it take a bond crisis?31:35 Japanification32:45 Empty high streets34:00 The fourth way: fiscal policy and the OBR35:27 Debt is fine if it buys growth36:53 More entrepreneurs on the MPC37:32 Inheritance tax is morally wrong39:43 Pay MPs for performance?41:29 Wrap The numbers- Universal credit: above the work allowance, the taper withdraws 55p of universal credit for every extra £1 of take-home pay (DWP rates, 2026-27).- Bank of England, 17 September 2026: gilt sales paused until April 2027; gilts maturing in 2049 or later stay on the balance sheet; £146bn of 2035-49 gilts to be sold at about £20bn a year. Losses on the Asset Purchase Facility are indemnified by HM Treasury.- The £45m step-free scheme is at Peckham Rye station, for which Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh launched a petition on 6 October 2026 (City AM). David says Hackney on air.- M4 relief road: the Welsh Government spent £135.7m on the scheme before it was scrapped in 2019. Damian says £128m on air.- Cambridge Circus Research, "Wages After the Wave" (Hubert Kucharski, October 2026, foreword by Damian Pudner): payrolled jobs in England rose by 2.8m between 2015 and 2025, and 2.3m of them (82%) went to non-UK nationals. The report finds the rise in migrant employment held down pay for British workers outside London.- Industrial energy: David says French industry pays 80% less. The government's own 2026 estimate for supported energy-intensive firms is £86/MWh in the UK against £69/MWh in France, so UK firms pay about a quarter more.- Payrolled employees: 30.2m in August 2026 (early estimate), down 145,000 on the year (ONS).- The Office for Budget Responsibility was set up in 2010. An MP's basic salary is over £90,000.- Other figures in conversation are the speakers' own. Nothing in this episode is investment advice. Pints & Policy talks to guests from across politics and policy. Their views are their own. Guest: David Belle, macro trader and founder of FINK, former UK Growth Director at TradingView (X: @Fink_Money · YouTube: @DavidBelleFink · fink.money)Host: Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank (X: @DamianPudner) Great British Think Tank. Data. Not vibes.gbtt.info · X: @GreatBritishTT

  2. 2d ago

    No inheritance tax on the family home? | Stamp duty, legal migration and Tories v Reform

    Kemi Badenoch used her Conservative conference speech to promise that nobody pays inheritance tax on their family home, and to scrap stamp duty on the homes people live in. Benedict Spence joins Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank, to go through what that means for families, why inheritance tax now reaches far beyond the 1% it was once said to touch, and what scrapping stamp duty could do for a gummed-up housing market. They also cover legal migration and the Tories' record on it, why voters still hold back their trust, whether Reform or the Conservatives can land a knockout on the right, whether Restore could follow Giorgia Meloni's route to power, and the two ideas from this conference season that both of them like. The numbers: Badenoch pledged no inheritance tax on the family home, no stamp duty on primary residences and a National Insurance cut for 21 to 24-year-olds (7 October 2026). 4.72% of UK deaths resulted in an inheritance tax charge in 2023-24 (HMRC). From 6 April 2027, most unused pension funds count towards an estate for inheritance tax. Other figures in conversation are the speakers' own. Guest: Benedict Spence, political commentator (X: @BenedictSpence). Host: Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank (X: @DamianPudner). Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/SfPn8112R3U Great British Think Tank. Data. Not vibes. gbtt.info · X: @GreatBritishTT

  3. 3d ago

    Britain's capitalist command economy | Christopher Snowdon on a BBC tax, vaping and 20mph

    Is Britain a "capitalist command economy"? Dr Christopher Snowdon, Head of Lifestyle Economics at the Institute of Economic Affairs, joins Damian Pudner to explain how government now steers private industry with targets and fines, from heat pumps and electric cars to supermarket calories, and why it keeps the blame at arm's length. They also cover a proposed £11-a-month broadband levy to fund the BBC, why more vapers than smokers is good news, Wales's new 65p minimum price for alcohol, 20mph limits, impact assessments with billions in costs and no monetised benefit, the mini-budget compared with today's gilt market, and the one reform Chris would make first. Chris's new book, Inside the Sausage Factory: The Illusion of Evidence-Based Policymaking (IEA): https://iea.org.uk/publications/inside-the-sausage-factory/ Guest: Dr Christopher Snowdon, Head of Lifestyle Economics, Institute of Economic Affairs. X: @cjsnowdonHost: Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank. X: @DamianPudner Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/D0MD0O_1jpw The numbers: the government is reported to be weighing an £11-a-month levy on home broadband bills to replace the TV licence (September 2026). Wales raised its minimum unit price for alcohol from 50p to 65p on 1 October 2026. ONS figures show more adults in Great Britain now vape than smoke (10.0% v 9.1% of adults aged 16 and over, 2024). The 30-year gilt yield went above 6% on 1 October 2026, higher than at the peak of the September 2022 mini-budget sell-off. Other figures quoted in conversation are the speakers' own. Pints & Policy talks to guests from across politics and policy. Their views are their own. Great British Think Tank. Data. Not vibes.gbtt.info · X: @GreatBritishTT

  4. 4d ago

    Vannda's Matt Cull on agents, costs and jobs

    Matt Cull, founder and CEO of Vannda, has spent 25 years putting finance and operations systems into businesses. He joins Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank, to talk about what AI is already doing inside companies and what it means for the rest of us. They cover why the doom narrative and the hallucination complaints cannot both be right, automating the finance department, what a small firm should plug in now, why nobody tests a new AI model before relying on it, giving an AI access to your email without letting it send, what tokens cost, staying model-agnostic, running your own model, the EU AI Act, and whether our children should still go to university. The numbers - AI-written code: Anthropic reports that more than 80% of the code merged into its production codebase in May 2026 was written by Claude (Anthropic Institute, "When AI builds itself", June 2026). Matt puts it at 90%. - EU AI Act: the Act classes AI used in hiring and managing staff as high-risk, with extra obligations for firms that use it in the EU. - Student debt: the average borrower entering repayment in England in 2024-25 owed £53,010 (Student Loans Company, provisional). Damian rounds it to £60,000. Guest: Matt Cull, founder and CEO of VanndaHost: Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank (X: @DamianPudner)Pints & Policy talks to guests from across business and politics. Their views are their own. Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/fzLDvKDIybI Great British Think Tank. Data. Not vibes. gbtt.info · X: @GreatBritishTT

  5. Oct 3

    30-year gilts break 6% for the first time since 1998 | France, the Budget and an early election

    Thirty-year gilt yields broke 6% this week for the first time since 1998. Marcus Ashworth and Michael Brown join Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank, to work out what is driving the global bond sell-off and how far it has to run. They cover forced sellers and the French spread, whether central banks step in, why markets still price UK rate hikes, the diesel squeeze, the 28 October Budget and its thin headroom, the risk of an early general election, and how they would position for it. The numbers: the 30-year gilt yield rose above 6% on Thursday 1 October 2026, the first time since 1998. Chancellor John Healey delivers his first Budget on 28 October 2026. Rate-hike pricing and bond spreads are the panel's figures as of recording; 17 December is the date from GBTT's own election model. Portfolio talk is conversation between the panel, not investment advice. Guests: Marcus Ashworth, markets commentator (X: @marcusashworth), and Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone (X: @MrMBrown). Host: Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank (X: @DamianPudner). Their views are their own. Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/I3V3qCOqMAM Great British Think Tank. Data. Not vibes. gbtt.info · X: @GreatBritishTT

  6. Oct 2

    Nearly £40bn a year on housing benefit | SDP's Ross Baglin on debt, migration and defence

    Ross Baglin, interim leader of the SDP, joins Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank, to make the case for an "investment state": a government that spends to build things that pay back, rather than on transfers it cannot afford. They go through the flip from investment to entitlements, a debt interest bill now close to the whole education budget, nearly £40bn a year on housing benefit since the state stopped building homes, the SDP's 50,000 net migration target and its Ascension Island plan for small boats, and a homeland-first defence policy. The numbers: the DWP projects a record £38.8bn on housing support (Housing Benefit plus Universal Credit housing costs) in 2026-27. Public sector net debt was 93.8% of GDP at the end of August 2026 (ONS); the OBR expected debt interest of about £111bn in 2025-26. The entitlements v investment ratios are the SDP's own green paper analysis. Net migration of 50,000 and Ascension Island processing are SDP policy as Ross describes it. Guest: Ross Baglin, interim leader of the SDP (X: @ross_baglin). Host: Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank (X: @DamianPudner). Pints & Policy talks to guests from across politics; their views are their own. Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/CE_CFlV4wkY Great British Think Tank. Data. Not vibes. gbtt.info · X: @GreatBritishTT

  7. Sep 30

    The triple lock is no longer taboo | £15bn by 2040, a care service and an early election?

    Andy Burnham used his Labour conference speech to put the triple lock on the table. Benedict Spence joins Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank, to go through what actually changes, what it saves, who pays in the meantime, and why a speech this big looks like the first draft of a manifesto: a National Care Service, closer ties with Europe, electoral reform and, perhaps, an early election. The numbers: the triple lock is unchanged for the rest of this Parliament. From April 2030 the state pension would rise each year by at least prices or 2.5%, with the annual earnings leg replaced by a pledge to hold its value relative to earnings over time (Labour conference speech, 29 Sep 2026). Government estimates put the saving at about £15bn a year by 2040, earmarked for a National Care Service in the next Parliament. Damian's "about £9bn a year" for the early years is his own estimate on air. Burnham has ruled out an early general election; Ben does not believe him. The Budget is on 28 October 2026. Guest: Benedict Spence, political commentator (X: @BenedictSpence). Host: Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank (X: @DamianPudner). Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/VqIMFWinoX0 Great British Think Tank. Data. Not vibes. gbtt.info · X: @GreatBritishTT

  8. Sep 29

    Mansion tax from £1.5m? Treble the headache | Mortgage approvals, stamp duty and prime London

    Tom Bill, Head of UK Residential Research at Knight Frank, joins Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank, for a read on the housing market this autumn: mortgage approvals at their lowest since December 2023, why mortgage rates now track the oil price, the reported plan to pull the mansion tax threshold down to £1.5m, prime central London, the return of Help to Buy and the case for stamp duty reform. The numbers: mortgage approvals for house purchase were 54,900 in August 2026, down from 55,900 in July, the lowest since December 2023 (Bank of England). Buyer demand rose 5% in the first week of September against a five-year average of 0.4% (Rightmove). The High Value Council Tax Surcharge ("mansion tax") is due from 2028 on homes worth £2m or more; a cut to £1.5m has been reported as under discussion (The Times) but has not been announced. Prime central London prices are down 23% since mid-2015 (Knight Frank). The 77,000 and 230,000 property figures are Knight Frank estimates given by Tom. Guest: Tom Bill, Head of UK Residential Research, Knight FrankHost: Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/5LeU2ae4lu4 Great British Think Tank. Data. Not vibes. gbtt.info · X: @GreatBritishTT

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About

Britain's Independent Economic Think Tank

Information

  • Creator
    GBTT
  • Years Active
    2026
  • Episodes
    16
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © GBTT
  • Show Website
    Pints & Policy

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