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Capital flows, power transitions and monetary cycles, read before the market prices them. Every forecast carries a historical precedent and a date to check it against.

  1. 4d ago

    CATO — Geopolitics & Macro

    Capital flows, power transitions and monetary cycles, read before the market prices them. Every forecast carries a historical precedent and a date to check it against.

  2. 4d ago

    Circular AI Investment: What the BIS Numbers Reveal

    The BIS has measured the closed loop of artificial intelligence investment: more than half of incoming capital comes from other AI firms, and almost half the value of the deals carries a supply relationship with it. Precedents from 1847, Tokyo and Lucent, the accounting mechanism and three implications for anyone managing capital.

  3. 5d ago

    AI Agents: Only 7.2% Know Who Is Accountable

    At the US Senate, on 30 September 2026, the «Rogue AI» hearing opened with an empty chair. Inside companies the chain of accountability over AI agents breaks before it reaches a person: 7.2% name someone formally accountable. Three precedents in corporate governance (2002, 2011, 2016) show where this structure leads, and how late.

  4. 6d ago

    China's Central Bank Is Buying the Risk on AI Capex

    On 29 September 2026 China's central bank cut the pledged supplementary lending rate to 1.5% and raised the support ratio on science and technology relending to 100%, with the quota at 1,400 billion yuan. Chinese tech capex thus stops being a private credit bet and becomes a contingent liability of the state, while American capex stays hung on corporate bonds and private credit. Precedents: Korea 1973, Japan through 1991, France from 1945.

  5. Oct 3

    ECB: in Europe, AI capex is paid for with cash

    The ECB's SAFE survey of 2 October 2026 measures how euro area firms will pay for AI: 72% are counting on their own resources. In Europe, technology capex forms outside the credit channel, and that changes the transmission of monetary policy, the hierarchy among firms and the risk profile compared with the American debt-funded model.

  6. Oct 2

    Central bank AI: FRED becomes power infrastructure

    On October 1, 2026, at FRED Con 2026, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller called FRED the greatest public good the central bank has ever created, at a conference devoted to trust in data in the age of AI. This analysis reads that sentence as an act of monetary policy applied to information: with readers becoming automated agents, a central bank's advantage moves from owning the historical series to controlling the access protocol. Three precedents (1815, 1850, 1866) show the pattern, and the close brings three implications for capital, a dated forecast and the signals to watch.

  7. Oct 1

    Stellantis Halts EV Lines as Beijing Publishes Its Battery Plan

    Stellantis is suspending French electric vehicle lines over a shortage of long-range cells, while Beijing sets out its 2026-2030 battery plan. The European rule of origin rewards whoever owns industrial capacity, and that capacity today is Asian.

  8. Sep 30

    The AI Arms Race Will Be Decided on Verification

    AI arms control rests on verification: a cap on training compute becomes enforceable where that compute can be counted physically, in chips, data centres and energy. On 23 September 2026 the United Nations Security Council devoted a session to artificial intelligence and international security; five days later the Lowy Institute proposed Australia as verifier, citing the 1996 precedent of the nuclear test ban. Whoever measures gains a right of inspection over the capital that funds AI capex.

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Capital flows, power transitions and monetary cycles, read before the market prices them. Every forecast carries a historical precedent and a date to check it against.

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