John Mearsheimer - Offensive Realism

John Mearsheimer
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The official podcast of Prof. John Mearsheimer

  1. 1d ago

    The Korean War: America vs China | Ask The Professor

    YouTube Channel member ⁠@spacecometrue ⁠ asked me to share my analysis of the causes and course of the Korean War. North Korea invaded the South on June 25, 1950, and nearly won before the U.S. stepped in. MacArthur's Inchon landing pushed the North Koreans back to the 38th parallel. When we crossed it and headed for the Yalu River, China entered the war in October 1950, and from that point it was really a war between the U.S. and China. It ended in an armistice in July 1953, not a peace agreement. I also explain why each side fought. North Korea wanted to unify the peninsula. The U.S. came in after Dean Acheson's blunder, because a Soviet ally controlling Korea threatened Japan and Northeast Asia. China found U.S. troops on its border unacceptable, much as Russia saw Ukraine in NATO. I also cover how the war militarized the Cold War, and why I think the Korean Peninsula is stable today despite North Korea's nuclear weapons. ————————————————————  CHAPTERS 0:00 Intro: 0:04 A member's question on Korea 0:41 How the Korean War unfolded 1:36 The U.S. enters and the Inchon landing 2:08 Crossing the 38th parallel 3:15 China enters the war 4:31 Really a U.S.–China war, and the 1953 armistice 5:28 How Korea militarized the Cold War 6:55 Why North Korea invaded 8:27 Why the U.S. came in: Acheson's blunder 10:24 Why China came in 11:16 The Ukraine–NATO parallel 12:41 The Korean Peninsula today 14:01 Why North Korea's nukes are defensive 15:24 Verdict: another war is unlikely ————————————————————

  2. 3d ago

    Episode 11: Trump Can’t Bluff Iran into Surrender

    DESCRIPTION It seems clear that the Trump administration and its allies are working overtime to create the false impression that the United States is well on its way to defeating Iran and that Tehran should therefore submit to American demands sooner rather than later. If it does not, so the argument goes, not only will the economic punishment inflicted on Iran reach crushing levels, but President Trump will launch a devastating military attack that might even include putting U.S. ground forces into Iran. I will argue in this episode that this is largely a propaganda campaign—and that it is unlikely to work because Iran, not the Trump administration, is in the driver’s seat. ———————————————————— CHAPTERS 0:00 Intro 0:42 The Administration's Propaganda Campaign 3:41 A Two-Pronged Approach 4:12 The Economic Argument: Blockade & Bessent's Strategy 6:21 The Military Argument: More Troops & Carriers 8:48 Why the Story Is Deeply Flawed 9:16 Why a New Air Campaign Won't Work 10:51 The "Three Carriers" Myth 14:28 Striking Oil Infrastructure & Iran's Second Strike 15:35 The Ground Invasion: How Many Combat Troops? 20:23 What Can You Do With 7,500 Troops? 23:05 Body Bags & Getting the Marines Ashore 25:19 Will Economic Pain Make Iran Surrender? 26:28 Lesson of History: Blockades Alone Don't Win Wars 28:38 Facing an Existential Threat 29:23 Iran's Doomsday Option 31:14 Is the West Really Doing Well? 32:01 New Strait Attacks & the Houthi Threat to Saudi Oil 34:30 Oil Is Flowing, but Economies Are Still Hurting 36:01 Bottom Line ———————————————————— MUSIC "The Ice Giants" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Music modified (edited/remixed) from the original.

  3. 5d ago

    Forget Vietnam, You Get Iran And Iraq | Ask The Professor

    I'll explain how the Vietnam War shaped my thinking about international relations, and the lessons it holds for today.

  4. Oct 2

    Will China Attack Taiwan? | Ask The Professor

    I'll explain why I believe a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in the next decade is unlikely, and the one scenario that could change that.

  5. Sep 29

    Episode 10: The Inescapable US-China Rivalry

    President Trump and President Xi Jinping just concluded a three-day summit in Washington, DC, that was noteworthy for its lofty rhetoric and almost complete lack of progress in dealing with a host of truly important issues: AI, Iran, Taiwan, trade, and Ukraine. The Economist maintains that the two leaders “squandered a chance to tackle the world’s gravest threats,” which it argues “amounts to a dereliction of duty, and leaves the rest of humanity as the losers.” I disagree. I will review what happened at the summit regarding each of these issues and explain why, with the possible exception of trade, the underlying conflicts of interest between China and the United States leave little room for meaningful agreement.

  6. Sep 22

    Episode 9: Is Ukraine Committing National Suicide?

    Iuliia Mendel, who served as President Zelensky’s press secretary from 2019 to 2021, published an article in The Spectator on September 15, 2026, titled “Zelensky’s Strategy Is National Suicide.” In essence, she makes a compelling case that Ukraine is not simply losing its war with Russia but is being so thoroughly wrecked in the process that it is effectively committing national suicide.   Mendel made much the same case the following day, September 16, in a virtual address to an event at the European Parliament. She had intended to deliver the speech in person but was denied entry to the Parliament building and therefore had to appear virtually. Mendel attributes that decision to the sanctions President Zelensky had imposed on her three days earlier, although the European Parliament has not said why she was barred.   Mendel’s article and speech have generated substantial controversy, which is hardly surprising given the severity of her indictment and the fact that she served as Zelensky’s press secretary. My aim in this episode is to examine the arguments she makes in both her article and her European Parliament speech and explain why I think her description of what is happening to Ukraine is fundamentally correct.

  7. Sep 16

    Episode 8: The Russia I Saw

    I recently spent 8 days in Russia – September 5-12, 2026 – mainly in Moscow and St. Petersburg. I gave a series of talks and interviews and spoke with numerous people in the Russian security community, including senior figures like Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. In this episode, I describe what I learned during my trip.

  8. Sep 9

    Episode 7: A Must Read Book on the Israel Lobby

    Eli Clifton and Ian Lustick have just published a terrific new book called Israel’s Lobby: America in the Grip of a Foreign Power. It appears twenty years after Steve Walt and I published “The Israel Lobby” in The London Review of Books (March 2006), which we turned into a book a year later. Much has happened regarding Israel, the Israel lobby, and the US-Israeli relationship in the two decades since Steve and I first addressed those subjects. Clifton and Lustick do a great job explaining those fundamental changes. In this episode, I will discuss their new book and explain how it differs from what Steve and I wrote in our article and book on the lobby. ———————————————————— BUY THE BOOKS 1. Israel's Lobby: America in the Grip of a Foreign Power  by Eli Clifton and Ian Lustick Purchase Here: https://amzn.to/4gMNJey 2. The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy by John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt Purchase Here: https://amzn.to/3SL2M0o (As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases.) ———————————————————— CHAPTERS 0:00 Intro 0:28 The book: Israel's Lobby by Eli Clifton and Ian Lustick 2:38 The core arguments 5:15 The conceptual framework: discourse vs. policy 7:29 Where the new book breaks from Mearsheimer & Walt 8:01 How the discourse changed: dual loyalty and "Israel Firsters" 12:42 The internet and the collapse of media gatekeeping 15:08 Israeli behavior after October 7th 17:45 Israel as a "crazy state" 22:11 Israeli identity: "a nation that dwells alone" 27:51 Why Americans turned on Israel 29:29 The lobby fights back: redefining antisemitism 32:54 Government crackdowns on campus protests 35:40 Plutocrats, Citizens United, and policy capture 39:11 The bottom line and the big question ahead 41:14 Closing thoughts ———————————————————— MUSIC "The Ice Giants" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Music modified (edited/remixed) from the original.

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