India Treasury Brief

A Agarwal
  • 0.0 (0)
  • Management
  • Updated Daily

India Treasury Brief is a twice-weekly, ten-minute podcast for Indian corporate treasurers — group and regional treasurers, CFOs and controllers. One theme per episode: what's moving for corporate treasury in India, and what to do about it. Every episode is built around one question a treasurer would ask, and closes with something concrete to act on, not just why the story matters. Built from exchange filings, regulator circulars, RBI data and public reporting. Sources listed in every episode's notes. Personal views. Not investment advice.

  1. 1d ago

    EP13: The 2013 rupee playbook is back — four lessons for treasury

    The Reserve Bank of India announced new foreign exchange measures on 10 October 2026: a special dollar window for Indian Oil, Hindustan Petroleum and Bharat Petroleum, a ban on rebooking cancelled rupee hedges, a lower documentation threshold, and a 20% Foreign Exchange Risk Reserve on large hedges of current account payments. This episode sets the Reserve Bank's 2026 defence of the rupee against its 2013 playbook, and looks at what it changes for corporate treasury in India: forward contracts and cancellation, shipment delays, the one-bank undertaking, the cost of import cover, and four lessons from 2011 to 2014. (0:00) The oil window is back(0:43) History repeating: 2013 and 2026(2:59) What it changes for us(5:47) The new rules and the first days(8:34) Four lessons from 2013 Listen on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music and YouTube. Personal views. Not investment advice. SOURCES• RBI press releases of 10 October 2026 on foreign exchange market measures and the oil company dollar window• RBI A.P. (DIR Series) Circulars 25, 26 and 27 of October 2026, and the April 2026 circular and its withdrawal• RBI notifications on cash reserve maintenance and export realisation, 2026• RBI circulars of 2011 to 2014 on cancelling and rebooking forward contracts• Business Standard and Reuters reporting from 2013 on the oil window, the deposit swap window and forward premiums• Reuters, Business Standard and market reports on the rupee, forward premiums and bank pricing, October 2026• Clearing Corporation of India forward data, as reported by Reuters Figures are as reported. Check against the underlying data before relying on them.

    EP13: The 2013 rupee playbook is back — four lessons for treasury

  2. 6d ago

    EP12: How a rate cut goes missing between the RBI and your loan

    The Reserve Bank of India raised the repo rate on 7 October 2026, its first increase in nearly four years, and moved its stance to calibrated tightening. This episode looks at how a policy rate move actually reaches an Indian corporate borrower: the benchmark a bank lends off, the spread on top of it, reset dates in facility agreements, the long road from the prime lending rate through the base rate and MCLR to the external benchmark, the Reserve Bank's 2017 study group on why transmission stalled, and the draft Interest Rates on Loans and Advances Directions now proposed to take effect in 2027. (0:00) The cut that expired (1:40) Four benchmarks in fifteen years (4:46) What it cost us this cycle (6:54) A fifth rewrite, in draft (9:15) What I'd do about it Personal views. Not investment advice. SOURCES • RBI monetary policy — the October 2026 resolution and Governor's statement, and the April 2026 Monetary Policy Report • RBI Working Paper Series — transmission under the base rate and MCLR regimes (Chattopadhyay and Mitra, 2022) • RBI Internal Study Group on the working of the MCLR system, 2017, and the Reserve Bank's addendum to it • RBI Master Directions on interest rates on advances, and the September 2019 external benchmark circular • RBI draft Interest Rates on Loans and Advances Directions, 2026, and the press release inviting comments • Business Standard and Bank of Baroda analyses of what the 2025 cuts reached • Governor Rajan's 2015 remarks on asymmetric transmission, as reported at the time Figures are as reported. Check against the underlying data before relying on them.

    EP12: How a rate cut goes missing between the RBI and your loan

  3. Sep 30

    EP11: Quarter-end special — the rupee, rates and what to watch

    A special quarter-end edition. Between July and September, Brent crude rose by about 40% and the rupee fell only about 1.4%. This episode looks at where that pressure went: how the Reserve Bank held the rupee with its swap windows, record reserves and a forward book that nearly doubled; what happened to foreign direct and portfolio investment; why three-month money got cheaper while everything from six months out got more expensive; how June's rupee forecasts turned out; and the four signals and four dates worth watching between now and December. (00:00) Oil up 40%, the rupee barely moved (00:59) The rupee, and how it was held (02:22) FDI and FPI (03:27) Where the pressure went: rates (06:11) How June's forecasts did (07:24) What to watch into December THE QUARTER IN NUMBERS (July–September 2026) USD/INR (close): 94.65 → 95.95, +1.4% (rupee −1.4%) Brent crude ($/bbl): 71.57 → 102.59, +43.3% FX reserves ($bn): 666.93 → 765.90, +14.8% Repo rate: 5.25% → 5.25%, unchanged 3-month T-bill: 5.23% → 5.35%, +12 bp (+2.3%) 6-month T-bill: 5.30% → 5.67%, +37 bp (+7.0%) 10-year G-sec: 6.75% → 7.15%, +40 bp (+5.9%) 1-year forward premium: 2.81% → 3.17%, +36 bp (+13.0%) Start: 30 June (Brent 1 July; reserves week to 26 June). Close: USD/INR 30 September; Brent 29 September; reserves week to 18 September; T-bills and forward premium 22 September; 10-year 30 September. DATES TO WATCH 7 October: RBI rate decision · 28 October: US Federal Reserve · 4 December: RBI · 9 December: US Federal Reserve · 31 December: last date to draw down under the RBI's swap facility for PSU external commercial borrowings Personal views. Not investment advice. SOURCES • Money-market rates, forward premia and reference rate — FBIL • Rupee closes — PTI • Brent — Fortune (1 July); Reuters (29 September) • Foreign exchange reserves and swap-window inflows — RBI, via Business Standard, ANI and Entrepreneur India • RBI forward book — RBI monthly bulletin via Business Standard (July); Bloomberg and Reuters (August) • Foreign portfolio investment — NSDL • Foreign direct investment — RBI monthly bulletin via Business Standard; balance of payments, April–June — RBI via Business Standard • RBI bond sales and liquidity — Business Standard • Rate-hike calls — SBI (Soumya Kanti Ghosh) via Business Standard; HSBC Global Investment Research via ANI • 10-year G-sec — countryeconomy; Trading Economics • Forecasts — Reuters poll (26 June–1 July) via The Wire; Business Standard poll (8 June); Goldman Sachs (8 June) via Bloomberg and Business Standard; Reuters poll (August) via Yahoo Finance; bank forecast range via exchangerates.org.uk • ECB swap facility for PSUs — RBI circular of 8 June 2026, via EY • Meeting dates — RBI MPC calendar; US Federal Reserve Figures are as reported. Check against the underlying data before relying on them.

    EP11: Quarter-end special — the rupee, rates and what to watch

  4. Sep 27

    EP10: India's digital rupee and tokenised bonds

    The Securities and Exchange Board of India and the Reserve Bank of India have launched Demat 2.0, a pilot in which corporate bonds are issued as tokens and paid for in the wholesale digital rupee. REC, Larsen & Toubro and IIFL Finance issued the first bonds in September 2026. This episode is about the digital rupee wallet at the centre of it: what the wallet is and how it works day to day, whether a corporate treasury can open one and invest, what changes for settlement and coupon payments, and how long the Reserve Bank's pilots have taken to move beyond the pilot stage. (00:00) India's first tokenised bonds (00:49) What happened, and what's different (03:36) The new wallet (06:10) The catch, and how long it takes (07:22) What I'd do now Personal views. Not investment advice. SOURCES • The pilot, the three issues and investor counts — SEBI press release and FAQs on Demat 2.0, September 2026 • Eligible investors, wallet and registration terms — Key Information Documents for the REC and L&T issues, NSE electronic bidding platform • The wallets and the path to production — NSDL's managing director, interviewed by ANI • Wholesale and retail digital rupee, and the Reserve Bank's plans — RBI Annual Report 2025-26 • Pricing of the REC issue — Business Standard • Start of the digital rupee pilots — Reserve Bank of India Figures are as reported. Check against the underlying data before relying on them.

    EP10: India's digital rupee and tokenised bonds

  5. Sep 23

    EP09: Why the mega IPOs didn't move the money market — and what did

    The National Stock Exchange's ₹22,562 crore share sale closed on 21 September, and Jio Platforms has filed for one larger still. Neither is doing much to India's money market. This episode looks at what that means for corporate treasury in India: why application money is blocked rather than paid away, the cap on borrowing to bid, the Reserve Bank's standing deposit facility and its reverse repo auctions, the ₹1 lakh crore of open market bond sales running through September, what allotment day actually moves between banks, and how I'd time a commercial paper roll or a surplus placement around all of it. (00:00) Why the NSE issue didn't move rates (01:29) What a big IPO used to do (02:09) Three things that changed (04:29) What's left of the old effect (05:39) What I'd watch instead Personal views. Not investment advice. SOURCES • Call money, triparty repo, standing deposit facility, reverse repo and net liquidity — Reserve Bank of India, Money Market Operations, daily releases • Policy rates — Reserve Bank of India • Open market bond sales through September — RBI announcements and auction results • NSE issue size, subscription and bids — Business Standard and market reporting • Jio Platforms' draft offer document, June 2026 — press reporting of the filing • Blocked-amount application rules — SEBI circulars of 2011 and 2015 • The cap on non-bank lending against IPO applications — RBI Scale Based Regulation and the 2023 Master Direction • Coal India's 2010 issue and the liquidity that week — contemporaneous Business Standard reporting Figures are as reported. Check against the underlying data before relying on them.

    EP09: Why the mega IPOs didn't move the money market — and what did

  6. Sep 20

    EP08: The Fed's first rate rise since 2023, and what it did to the rupee premium

    The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates on 16 September, its first increase since 2023, and its own projections no longer show cuts next year. This episode looks at what that means for corporate treasury in India: the Federal Reserve's own votes and projections, oil prices after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, inflation, the Indian rupee and its forward premium, the Reserve Bank of India's currency swaps and forward book, Indian interest rates before the October monetary policy decision, and hedging decisions on imports, exports and dollar loans. (00:00) Why hedging didn't follow the Fed (00:46) How the Fed changed its mind (02:40) Why our hedging cost went up (05:34) What it says about rates and the rupee (06:37) What I'd do on the desk If you'd like a follow-up once the Reserve Bank has decided, let me know on LinkedIn or X. Personal views. Not investment advice. SOURCES • Fed decision, vote records and projections — Federal Reserve press releases, FOMC minutes and Summary of Economic Projections, March to September 2026 • Oil prices through the first quarter — US Energy Information Administration • Forward premia and Indian swap rates — FBIL published benchmarks; US Treasury yields — FRED • Importer and exporter forward cover — Clearing Corporation of India data, reported by Reuters • The Reserve Bank's deposit window, currency swaps and forward book — RBI announcements and the August 2026 Bulletin, reported by Business Standard and Reuters • Indian rate expectations before the October policy decision — Reuters • Removal of the hedging requirement on foreign currency borrowing, February 2026 — Khaitan & Co on the amended regulations Figures are as reported. Check against the underlying data before relying on them.

    EP08: The Fed's first rate rise since 2023, and what it did to the rupee premium

  7. Sep 16

    EP07: The FEMA trade rules that change on 1 October: your bank decides now

    The new FEMA regulations for exports and imports take effect on 1 October 2026, and most of the decisions in them now sit with your AD bank rather than the Reserve Bank. This episode looks at what that means for a corporate treasury: realisation periods and advances for exporters, payment terms and advances for importers, netting and central treasury arrangements, and the documentation that comes with all of it. If you'd like a follow-up episode once banks publish their policies, let me know on LinkedIn or X. Personal views. Not investment advice. SOURCES - Foreign Exchange Management (Export and Import of Goods and Services) Regulations, 2026 — RBI Notification FEMA 23(R)/2026-RB, 13 January 2026; Directions on Export and Import of Goods and Services, 16 January 2026; effective 1 October 2026 — regulation text as reproduced by World Trade Scanner; summaries by PwC India, EY India, AZB & Partners - Export realisation 15 months, 18 months where invoiced or settled in rupees (Regulation 5); earlier history: 9 months, 15 months from 13 November 2025, 9 months from 5 June 2026 — CorpLawUpdates - Earlier rule on export advances (shipment within one year; refund thereafter needed RBI approval) — RBI Master Direction – Export of Goods and Services, via TaxGuru; three-year extension, 13 November 2025 — Council for Leather Exports - Import payments per the underlying contract (Regulation 9), replacing the six-month rule; USD 200,000 guarantee threshold on import advances replaced by bank discretion (Regulation 10(3)); consequences if an import doesn't materialise (Regulation 12) — regulation text; EY India - Set-off of export receivables against import payables with the same overseas buyer or supplier or their overseas group or associate companies (Regulation 7); third-party receipts and payments (Regulation 8) — regulation text - Group set-off through a centralised settlement arrangement — RBI A.P. (DIR Series) Circular No. 08, 4 December 2020, via TaxGuru - Credit or debit only after the bank is satisfied of genuineness, with EDPMS/IDPMS updated simultaneously (Regulation 4(2)); bank internal policy and SOP (Regulation 19) — regulation text - RBI framework for invoicing and settlement of international trade in rupees, 11 July 2022 — PIB Figures are as reported. Check against the underlying regulation text before relying on them.

    EP07: The FEMA trade rules that change on 1 October: your bank decides now

  8. Sep 13

    EP06: India's rating just went up. Your cost of capital hasn't.

    On the second of September, Japan's JCR gave India its best sovereign credit grade from a major international agency in over 35 years - A minus, with the country ceiling raised too. It's real, and it's a genuinely good story for India. But does it move the number that actually decides your India cost of capital? This episode is about the gap between a rating headline and what's still sitting inside a treasury's own model. Moody's, S&P and Fitch - the three agencies most hurdle rates and country risk premiums are actually built on - haven't moved, and are all on stable outlook. What does a sovereign rating actually do to a company's cost of funding, in two separate channels? And where has the market itself already been pricing India, ahead of every rating agency, JCR included? We also look at the honest counter - where a smaller agency's move can matter contractually, in a facility's rating-linked clauses, even while it changes nothing in the model. Personal views. Not investment advice. SOURCES - JCR upgrades India's FCY/LCY long-term issuer rating BBB+ to A-, stable outlook, raises country ceiling to A, unsolicited, 2 September 2026 - India TV, OpIndia, Organiser - Fitch affirms India at BBB-, stable outlook, August 2025 - Yahoo Finance / Fitch, newsonair.gov.in - S&P upgrades India to BBB, stable, from BBB-, 14 August 2025 - first S&P India upgrade in 18 years - Business Standard topic archive - Moody's rates India Baa3, stable - Business Standard topic archive - R&I (a separate Japanese agency from JCR) upgraded India to BBB+, September 2025 - newsonair.gov.in - Damodaran country risk premium table: Baa3 default spread 1.87%, A3 default spread 1.02% - pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/ctryprem.html, last updated 5 January 2026, data vintage January 2026 - India sovereign 5-year USD CDS spread, one recent reading, approximately 0.88% (87.67bp, near a 52-week high) - Investing.com, India CDS 5 Year USD page; flagged in the episode itself as needing a refresh before anyone builds on it Figures are as reported. Check against the underlying data before relying on them.

See All (13)

About

India Treasury Brief is a twice-weekly, ten-minute podcast for Indian corporate treasurers — group and regional treasurers, CFOs and controllers. One theme per episode: what's moving for corporate treasury in India, and what to do about it. Every episode is built around one question a treasurer would ask, and closes with something concrete to act on, not just why the story matters. Built from exchange filings, regulator circulars, RBI data and public reporting. Sources listed in every episode's notes. Personal views. Not investment advice.

Information

  • Creator
    A Agarwal
  • Years Active
    2026
  • Episodes
    13
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © A Agarwal
  • Show Website
    India Treasury Brief