NFL & College Football Picks: 5 Bets Riding Our Full $5,817 Paper Bankroll | Paper Ledger #4 — football picks for this week, sports betting with paper money only, graded in public. Last week went 2-3 and lost $4,239.02; this week the full remaining $5,816.65 simulated bankroll splits across five picks by conviction — every pick graded in public on Thursday, November 12. Simulated betting experiment — paper money only. No real money is wagered, and nothing can be won or cashed out. 18+. Not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. The scoreboard so far: 19 settled (9-10-0), down $4,183.35 on $28,735.05 staked (-14.56% ROI), average closing line value +0.08 points over 18 bets. Last week: 2-3-0, -$4,239.02 — Washington and Chicago (both below-bar fills) won; Minnesota, the Cleveland/Pittsburgh over, and Baltimore lost as bad theses. The conviction ranking was perfectly inverted (ranks 1-3 lost, ranks 4-5 won) — disclosed in the episode. Chapters: 0:00 Cold open — last week 2-3, -$4,239.02; the full $5,816.65 rides again The frame + the full scoreboard (9-10, -$4,183.35, -14.56% ROI, CLV +0.08) Last week's receipts, graded by thesis The cuts, named — Oregon at Ohio State (+7.5) and Georgia at Ole Miss (college); Detroit at Miami and Arizona at Seattle (NFL) Pick 1 — Vikings +3.5 vs Bills: the proven-backup shape, 7/10 Pick 2 — Buccaneers +6.5 at Bears: short rest + defensive-line attrition, 6/10 Pick 3 — Colts +6 vs Cowboys: the largest model gap, capped at 5/10 Pick 4 — Miami +7 at Notre Dame: fading the over-move on a receiver absence, 5/10 Pick 5 — Ravens +10 vs Jaguars: the below-bar fill, 4/10 The rule: a Wednesday practice report is not corroboration The honest math — if all five hit (+$5,306.00, bankroll to $11,122.65; ~3.9% at market-implied odds) and the binary question graded November 12 Stat table — this week's five (all logged before kickoff, Thu Nov 5, 2026; bet-025 to bet-029). All prices are the market price at log time. 1. Minnesota Vikings +3.5 vs Buffalo Bills (-110), Mon Nov 9 — stake $1,508.01, stands to win $1,370.92 of paper money. Implied 52.4%. Conviction 7/10. 2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5 at Chicago Bears (-110), Sun Nov 8 — stake $1,292.59, stands to win $1,175.08. Implied 52.4%. Conviction 6/10. 3. Indianapolis Colts +6 vs Dallas Cowboys (-110), Sun Nov 8 — stake $1,077.16, stands to win $979.24. Implied 52.4%. Conviction 5/10. 4. Miami Hurricanes +7 at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-108), Sat Nov 7 — stake $1,077.16, stands to win $997.37. Implied 51.9%. Conviction 5/10. 5. Baltimore Ravens +10 vs Jacksonville Jaguars (-110), Thu Nov 5 — stake $861.73, stands to win $783.39. Implied 52.4%. Conviction 4/10. BELOW-BAR FILL, disclosed. If all five hit: +$5,306.00, bankroll to $11,122.65. The model note (standing): the ratings model was backtested walk-forward over 27 seasons — 51.08% against the spread; its claimed ~75% bucket cashed 52.6%. Model numbers are quoted only as what the model said, never as chances. Market-implied probabilities are arithmetic from the prices. The rule: a Wednesday practice report is not corroboration — a pick earns top weight only from a Sunday-grade input, a ruled-out designation, a quantified number, or a price through a key number. Sources: paper_ledger.jsonl via bet.py (bets bet-025 to bet-029, logged before kickoff, Nov 5, 2026); candidates_evaluated_week9.json (Thursday placement sweep); review_log.md (Nov 3 review classifications); prices = market/consensus lines at log time. Full public track record — every pick, wins and losses: https://stratiqai.app/track-record Narration: AI voice (Alex) for StratIQ, an AI-assisted research publication. Not financial advice Simulated betting experiment — paper money only. No real money is wagered, and nothing can be won or cashed out. 18+. Not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. AI Generated StratIQ publishes AI-powered trading ideas every weekday morning —…