Protein Pulse Podcast

Shawn Sparks

The Protein Pulse Podcast delivers concise, commercially focused protein market intelligence for buyers, sellers, traders, procurement leaders, processors, and executives across the beef, pork, chicken, feed, and global protein markets. Each episode translates USDA data, market pricing, slaughter trends, trade flows, imports, feed costs, policy developments, and supply-chain signals into clear, practical market context. The focus is simple: cut through the noise, explain what the numbers mean, and give protein professionals the market context they need before making their next decision. Your Daily Market Update on All Things Protein.

  1. 11h ago

    THE PROTEIN PULSE — DRIVE TIME Monday Market Open | October 26th, 2026

    Protein Pulse Drive Time — Monday Market Open | October 26th, 2026 HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Monday Market Open, October 26th. From The Sparks Group. SHAWN: September cattle placements fell twelve percent, the lowest September number since 1996. That tightens the 2027 pipeline, but it doesn't make every beef cut worth chasing today. Avian influenza is hitting egg and turkey operations. Screwworm is raising new border questions. Neither headline tells you what's available on a truck this week, and neither gives packers automatic pricing power. Watch the actual restrictions, the product, and the delivery date. Price what your plant needs, not what the rumor says. Separate the noise from the inventory. HOST: The Choice grade cutout closed at three sixty-five seventy-nine, down three sixty-eight. The Select grade gained two twenty-eight to three fifty-two sixty-nine. Fresh nineties at three eighty-seven F-O-B. Imported nineties near three oh eight F-C-A. Pork cutout at seventy-four oh nine, down one fourteen. Bellies down two forty-one. Chicken breast at one thirteen. Thighs at one seventy-five. West Texas Crude at one oh three twenty-seven. Corn at four fifty-six. Soybean meal at three forty-six ten. SHAWN: USDA announced a five billion dollar processing-finance initiative with ninety percent loan guarantees up to one hundred seventy-five million. Lula won reelection in Brazil. Four new screwworm cases confirmed in Texas and New Mexico. Columbus is scheduled to reopen today. Brazil reported a second Newcastle outbreak. The commercial consequences will depend on what actually changes in financing, delivered offers and physical shipments. Stay disciplined. HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group. SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

  2. 11h ago

    THE PROTEIN PULSE — Monday Market Open | October 26th, 2026

    Monday Market Open | October 26th, 2026Full Executive Briefing — Spoken ScriptHOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast, your daily market update on all things protein. This is Monday Market Open for October 26th, 2026, from The Sparks Group. SHAWN: September cattle placements fell twelve percent, the lowest September number since 1996. That tightens the 2027 pipeline, but it doesn't make every beef cut worth chasing today. Avian influenza is hitting egg and turkey operations. Screwworm is raising new border questions. Neither headline tells you what's available on a truck this week, and neither gives packers automatic pricing power. Watch the actual restrictions, the product, and the delivery date. Price what your plant needs, not what the rumor says. Separate the noise from the inventory. Stay disciplined. HOST: USDA announces a five billion dollar processing-finance initiative. Its new SPUR program offers ninety percent guarantees on eligible commercial loans of up to one hundred seventy-five million dollars for meat, poultry and seafood processors. Implementation remains pending congressionally approved funds. Neither loans nor additional slaughter capacity have been established. Brazil's election triggers a currency shock. Lula won reelection October 25th with fifty-one point seven nine percent of valid votes. The real's reported overnight futures selloff could change Brazilian exporters' dollar-price flexibility, but no corresponding decline in delivered protein quotations has been confirmed. Cattle placements hit their lowest September level since 1996. Placements fell twelve point one percent. October 1st feedlot inventory declined just zero point four percent. Friday's futures settlement preceded the USDA release, so it does not measure the market's reaction. Four new livestock screwworm cases confirmed in Texas and New Mexico. The October 26th Texas Agriculture Department release reports two Hudspeth County cattle, plus a cow and ram in Doña Ana County. Movement controls and today's scheduled Columbus cattle-crossing reopening require separate operational checks. Steiner's October 25th chicken assessment highlights uneven demand. The analysis describes higher 2026 production and competing expectations for 2027. Separate HPAI detections continue to affect egg and turkey operations, not an established national broiler shortage. SHAWN: September feedlot placements totaled one point seven seven seven million head, down twelve point one percent, the lowest September tally since records began in 1996. October 1st cattle on feed totaled eleven point three seven two million, down just zero point four percent. September marketings fell six point six percent, while three point seven one million cattle had been on feed at least one hundred fifty days. Longer feeding sustains current inventories while placements affect future supply. Weekly cattle slaughter totaled five hundred forty-six thousand head, down seven thousand from the prior week. Year-to-date slaughter trailed 2025 by seven point two percent. Friday's Choice cutout fell three sixty-eight to three sixty-five seventy-nine while Select gained two twenty-eight to three fifty-two sixty-nine. The Choice rib primal stood at six seventy-two fifty-seven. Prices diverged by cut. Imported lean trimmings passed for entry reached nineteen thousand four hundred thirty-two metric tons for the latest reported week, up six point four percent week over week and sixty-seven point seven percent year over year. Year-to-date entries reached eight hundred two thousand seven hundred fifty-eight metric tons, up twenty point seven percent. Friday's domestic fresh nineties averaged three eighty-seven F-O-B plant, while Platts assessed imported nineties near three oh eight F-C-A East Coast port on October 22nd. Specifications and delivery bases prevent a direct landed-cost comparison. USDA's new negotiated cash-cattle aggregation for Colorado, Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico is scheduled to begin Monday afternoon. It aggregates existing reporting, not new transactions. HOST: September frozen pork inventories reached four hundred twenty-seven point eight million pounds, nine percent above a year earlier. Hams totaled about one hundred sixty point six million pounds, up twenty-eight percent, and loins forty point six million, up twenty-five percent. Trimmings fell thirteen percent. Stocks are not immediate wholesale offers. Friday's pork cutout fell one fourteen to seventy-four oh nine. Ribs lost nine oh one. Bellies two forty-one. Picnics gained three nineteen. Weekly hog slaughter totaled two point six one five million head, up sixty-two thousand. Ham buyers must distinguish frozen stocks from current offers. Pork muscle-cut net export sales totaled thirty-seven thousand four hundred seventy-five metric tons for the week ended October 15th, about fourteen percent above the recent four-week average. China booked seven thousand two hundred seventy-six metric tons, while South Korean purchases exceeded sixteen thousand metric tons over two weeks. Mexico's weekly sales were below twelve thousand metric tons, about thirty-two percent under its four-week average, and outstanding commitments were approximately eighteen percent lower year over year. Commitments are not completed shipments. SHAWN: Steiner's October 25th analysis cites a 2026 broiler-production forecast near forty-nine point two billion pounds, about three point six percent above 2025. Its forecast vintage differs from USDA's newer October estimate of forty-nine point seven two billion pounds. The report describes domestic availability growing faster than production, with exports absorbing a smaller proportional share and quick-service demand uneven. More than half enters further processing. For 2027, USDA expects continued production growth while an alternative industry forecast points toward possible contraction. Neither outcome is confirmed. For the October 19th to 23rd week, boneless skinless breasts averaged one thirteen, down three ninety-three cents. Thighs one seventy-five, up one forty-eight cents. Wings one ten, up one oh two cents. Tenderloins one twelve, up sixty-nine cents. And leg quarters about fifty-three, down sixty-one cents. Cut prices diverged. A reported Illinois detection involved nine hundred thirty-four thousand six hundred laying hens. Other reported detections involved about twenty thousand meat turkeys in South Dakota, sixty thousand six hundred in North Dakota and forty-one thousand four hundred in Wisconsin, plus another Wisconsin commercial flock without a confirmed size. These detections do not establish a national broiler shortage. Brazil's electoral authority confirmed President Lula's October 25th reelection, fifty-one point seven nine percent to forty-eight point two one percent. Overnight reporting described a roughly ten percent decline in real futures, with dollar-equivalent indications around five fifty-one reais versus Friday spot near four ninety-nine. These are different instruments and sessions. A weaker real can give Brazilian beef, pork and chicken exporters room to negotiate dollar offers, but actual prices depend on destination access, product eligibility, freight, contracts and delivery date. Buyers need executable offers. Brazil's Agriculture Ministry reported a second Newcastle disease outbreak October 25th in Coronel Freitas, Santa Catarina, inside an existing restricted area. Poultry exporters and importers should check destination-specific restrictions already in force. Additional shipment losses or price effects are not confirmed. Low Mississippi River levels prompted restrictions that reduce some barge tows by about five barges, approximately thirteen percent of earlier capacity. That is reduced capacity, not a confirmed freight-rate increase. Friday December West Texas Crude settled at one oh three twenty-seven a barrel, up three eighty. December Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel at four seventy-nine a gallon, up about five cents. No new Strait of Hormuz closure is confirmed. Monday soybeans fell more than one percent to a two-month low amid record U.S. harvest supplies and lower crude oil. Friday corn settled at four fifty-six a bushel and soybean meal at three forty-six ten a short ton. Local delivered basis still matters. HOST: USDA announced at least five billion dollars in financing capacity for eligible U.S. meat, poultry and seafood processing businesses. The new Rural Development SPUR program would guarantee ninety percent of participating lenders' loans, up to one hundred seventy-five million dollars per borrower, for qualified expansion, equipment and other projects. Its program page states that implementation is pending congressionally approved funds. No loans, plant openings or added head-per-day capacity have been established. It is distinct from the earlier five hundred million dollar Farm Service Agency support program, whose deadline was September 30th. Processor investments depend on livestock supply, staffing, inspection and viable throughput. A Texas Department of Agriculture release dated October 26th reports four new livestock screwworm cases confirmed by federal laboratories. Two cattle in Hudspeth County, Texas, and a cow and ram in Doña Ana County, New Mexico. The release groups them under October 24th confirmation. Individual case records distinguish October 23rd Texas cases from October 24th New Mexico cases. Livestock operators must check applicable movement requirements, not assume a statewide restriction. Separately, an October 23rd Texas animal-health order released portions of Crockett and Pecos Counties from Zone 12.A while retaining restrictions in the remaining Zone 12.B. The earlier Pecos County elk detection remains a separate wildlife finding. APHIS...

  3. 3d ago

    THE PROTEIN PULSE — DRIVE TIME Special Report - Cattle on Feed | October 23rd, 2026

    THE PROTEIN PULSE — DRIVE TIMESpecial Report | October 23rd, 2026Cattle on FeedHOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Special report, October 23rd. Cattle on Feed. From The Sparks Group. SHAWN: The headline says cattle on feed are basically unchanged from last year. I wouldn't confuse that with a stable cattle pipeline. September placements dropped twelve percent, the lowest September number in thirty years of reporting. And here's what catches my attention. The trade was already expecting fewer placements. USDA came in another three point seven percentage points below those expectations. Placements declined across every weight class, and some of the biggest cattle-feeding states took substantial hits. Meanwhile, marketings are running lower. That's helping keep cattle in feedlots today, but it doesn't replace the cattle that aren't coming in. The inventory is holding. The replacement pipeline isn't. HOST: October 1st cattle on feed eleven point three seven two million, down zero point four percent. September placements one point seven seven seven million, down twelve percent. Marketings one point five two four million, down seven percent. Kansas, Nebraska and Texas accounted for about eighty-two percent of the national placement decline. SHAWN: Eleven point three seven million cattle on feed tells us where we are. One point seven eight million placements tells us more about where we are going. Stay disciplined. HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group. SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

  4. 3d ago

    THE PROTEIN PULSE Special Report - Cattle on Feed Report | October 23rd, 2026

    THE PROTEIN PULSESpecial Report | October 23rd, 2026Cattle on Feed Report — Spoken ScriptHOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast, your daily market update on all things protein. This is a special report for October 23rd, 2026, from The Sparks Group. Placements drop to a record September low and miss trade expectations. SHAWN: The headline says cattle on feed are basically unchanged from last year. I wouldn't confuse that with a stable cattle pipeline. September placements dropped twelve percent, the lowest September number in thirty years of reporting. And here's what catches my attention. The trade was already expecting fewer placements. USDA came in another three point seven percentage points below those expectations. We're not talking about one bad weight category or a handful of feedlots. Placements declined across every weight class, and some of the biggest cattle-feeding states took substantial hits. Meanwhile, marketings are running lower. That's helping keep cattle in feedlots today, but it doesn't replace the cattle that aren't coming in. For the packer, this is a future throughput problem. For the cattle feeder, it reinforces the supply advantage. And for beef buyers, the calendar matters just as much as today's price. That doesn't mean beef prices go straight up. Demand still has a vote, and packer margins still matter. But I wouldn't build a purchasing plan around the idea that cattle supplies are about to loosen. The inventory is holding. The replacement pipeline isn't. HOST: USDA's October Cattle on Feed report reveals a significant contraction in the forward cattle supply pipeline despite nearly unchanged current feedlot inventory. September placements declined two hundred forty-four thousand head year over year, reaching a record September low. Marketings fell one hundred eight thousand head, helping explain why October 1st inventory remained comparatively stable. The placement result was three point seven percentage points below the pre-report trade average, reinforcing the forward-supply concern. The updated ProteinPulse.AI COF Reaction Model v1 projects positive COF-only futures moves ranging from sixty-eight cents to one oh three per hundredweight, with the largest indicative responses in February and April. All four contracts remain within the model's neutral score classification, reflecting a positive but moderate standardized surprise. For beef buyers and processors, the report increases the importance of forward cattle availability, supplier coverage and future slaughter capacity. SHAWN: As of October 1st, cattle and calves on feed in U.S. feedlots with capacity of one thousand head or more totaled eleven point three seven two million head, slightly below a year ago. September placements fell twelve percent to one point seven seven seven million head, the lowest September total since USDA began the current series in 1996. Fed-cattle marketings declined seven percent to one point five two four million head, also a record September low. The market expected placements at ninety-one point seven percent of last year. USDA reported eighty-eight percent. That three point seven percentage-point surprise is the report's biggest forward-supply development. USDA reported net placements of one point seven two eight million head during September. Both placements and marketings were the lowest September totals since the series began in 1996. September placements declined from two point zero two one million head in 2025 to one point seven seven seven million head in 2026. That represents two hundred forty-four thousand fewer cattle entering feedlots compared with last September. The weakness was particularly significant across major cattle-feeding states. Nebraska four hundred ninety thousand head, down sixteen percent. Colorado one hundred thirty thousand head, down sixteen percent. Kansas four hundred twenty thousand head, down ten percent. Texas three hundred thirty thousand head, down fifteen percent. Iowa seventy thousand head, down eight percent. Oklahoma forty-eight thousand head, up four percent. Kansas, Nebraska and Texas accounted for approximately seventy percent of national September placements. Those three states collectively placed two hundred thousand fewer cattle than in September 2025, accounting for approximately eighty-two percent of the national decline. That concentration matters because these feeding regions supply major portions of the U.S. fed-cattle processing network. Fewer placements in those areas can translate into tighter slaughter-ready cattle availability and increased competition for throughput as those cattle reach market weight. HOST: The September decline extended across every major placement weight category. Under six hundred pounds three hundred sixty thousand, down eleven point one percent. Six hundred to six hundred ninety-nine pounds two hundred sixty thousand, down sixteen point one percent. Seven hundred to seven hundred ninety-nine pounds three hundred eighty-five thousand, down eleven point five percent. Eight hundred to eight hundred ninety-nine pounds four hundred twenty-two thousand, down thirteen point two percent. Nine hundred to nine hundred ninety-nine pounds two hundred fifty-five thousand, down ten point five percent. One thousand plus pounds ninety-five thousand, down five percent. The largest absolute decline occurred among eight hundred to eight hundred ninety-nine pound cattle, down sixty-four thousand head. The largest percentage decline occurred among six hundred to six hundred ninety-nine pound cattle, down sixteen point one percent. This was not simply a lightweight-calf timing issue. Fewer cattle entered feedlots across the entire weight spectrum. Heavier placements generally reach market weight sooner than lighter cattle, making the reduction relevant to several future marketing periods. The ProteinPulse.AI COF Reaction Model measures USDA results against pre-report market expectations, identifying the unanticipated portion of the report. On feed one hundred percent actual versus one hundred point three percent pre-report, a zero point three point surprise. Placements eighty-eight percent versus ninety-one point seven percent, a three point seven point surprise. Marketings ninety-three percent versus ninety-two point eight percent, a zero point two point surprise. The dominant fundamental surprise is placements. The trade anticipated September placements approximately eight point three percent below last year. USDA reported a decline of approximately twelve percent. The result strengthens the forward-supply signal, although analysts were already anticipating exceptionally low placements. The model assigns the largest indicative reactions to February and April, where placement data carry greater relevance to forward fed-cattle availability. October twenty-six plus sixty-eight cents to two thirty forty-three, neutral. December twenty-six plus eighty-six cents to two thirty-one ninety-nine, neutral. February twenty-seven plus one oh three to two thirty-four forty-eight, neutral. April twenty-seven plus one oh one to two thirty-five eighty-nine, neutral. The positive forecasts reflect a supportive supply surprise. The neutral classifications indicate that the standardized composite scores have not reached the model's bullish thresholds. The projections use October 22nd settlement references and the existing v1 model assumptions, including its September reference volatility settings. These are indicative COF-only projections, not guaranteed futures prices. Cash cattle, boxed beef, macroeconomic conditions, positioning and other market developments can alter the actual reaction. SHAWN: Feedlots began September with eleven point one six eight million head on feed. During the month placements were one point seven seven seven million head. Marketings were one point five two four million head. Other disappearance was forty-nine thousand head. That produced an October 1st inventory of eleven point three seven two million head. Current inventory was only forty-six thousand head below the previous year. But September marketings were also one hundred eight thousand head lower than a year earlier. Slower movement out of feedlots helped sustain inventory even as incoming placements contracted sharply. That is the distinction buyers need to recognize. Current feedlot inventories reflect cattle already in the feeding system. Placements indicate how the supply of future market-ready cattle is being replenished. The two figures are sending different signals. Near term, more than eleven point three seven million cattle remain on feed. This report does not indicate an immediate shortage of slaughter-ready cattle. Forward supply, September placements declined two hundred forty-four thousand head year over year, strengthening the signal of tighter future fed-cattle availability. Cash cattle, reduced forward supplies can improve cattle-owner negotiating leverage. Actual cash trade will continue to depend on packer demand, regional availability and slaughter requirements. Live cattle futures, the ProteinPulse.AI v1 model projects positive COF-only moves of sixty-eight cents to one oh three per hundredweight, with greater sensitivity in the deferred contracts. Boxed beef, a tighter cattle pipeline does not independently establish higher cutout prices. Consumer demand, carcass weights, slaughter pace and processing margins remain critical. Lean beef and grinding, this is not a cow-slaughter or nineties report. Continued domestic cattle constraints nevertheless reinforce the importance of imported lean beef and grinding blend economics. Processing capacity, fewer future slaughter-ready cattle could intensify competition for available supplies and increase pressure on plants requiring consistent...

  5. 3d ago

    THE PROTEIN PULSE — DRIVE TIME Closing Bell Friday | October 23rd, 2026

    THE PROTEIN PULSE — DRIVE TIMEClosing Bell Friday | October 23rd, 2026HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Closing Bell Friday, October 23rd. From The Sparks Group. SHAWN: This week's animal-health developments are significant, but they are three different stories, not one industrywide supply problem. The screwworm detections in Texas and New Mexico bring renewed attention to livestock movement requirements in affected areas. Brazil's Newcastle disease case has prompted different poultry import restrictions depending on the destination. Finland's African swine fever detection in wild boar has affected pork exports to China and Japan. What matters commercially is how narrowly or broadly each restriction applies. A regional poultry restriction is not a ban on every Brazilian shipment. A livestock movement zone is not a closure of every border crossing. And an export restriction does not automatically mean a shortage in the domestic market. The takeaway is to understand the specific consequences of each development without assuming a wider disruption than the evidence supports. That's how we separate meaningful market intelligence from unnecessary alarm. HOST: Choice closed at three sixty-nine forty-seven, down three twelve. Select fell four ninety-three to three fifty forty-one. Imported frozen nineties at three thirteen C-I-F East Coast. Pork cutout at seventy-five twenty-three. Bellies at eighty-four fifty-nine. Chicken breast at one seventeen. West Texas Crude at ninety-nine forty-seven. Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel at four ninety-three. SHAWN: Wisconsin confirmed another commercial HPAI flock. Brazil faces destination-specific poultry restrictions. The October 26th Columbus reopening remains conditional. Separate confirmed restrictions from expected market effects. Stay disciplined. HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group. SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

  6. 3d ago

    THE PROTEIN PULSE Closing Bell Friday | October 23rd, 2026

    Closing Bell Friday | October 23rd, 2026Full Executive Briefing — Spoken ScriptHOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast, your daily market update on all things protein. This is Closing Bell Friday for October 23rd, 2026, from The Sparks Group. SHAWN: This week's animal-health developments are significant, but they are three different stories, not one industrywide supply problem. The screwworm detections in Texas and New Mexico bring renewed attention to livestock movement requirements in affected areas. Brazil's Newcastle disease case has prompted different poultry import restrictions depending on the destination. Finland's African swine fever detection in wild boar has affected pork exports to China and Japan. What matters commercially is how narrowly or broadly each restriction applies. A regional poultry restriction is not a ban on every Brazilian shipment. A livestock movement zone is not a closure of every border crossing. And an export restriction does not automatically mean a shortage in the domestic market. The takeaway is to understand the specific consequences of each development without assuming a wider disruption than the evidence supports. That's how we separate meaningful market intelligence from unnecessary alarm. HOST: The first U.S. wildlife screwworm detection, in a Texas elk, has triggered renewed surveillance and zone revisions. A separate beef-cow detection in New Mexico adds livestock-movement concern ahead of a scheduled border-crossing reopening. Poultry trade faces a separate disruption after Newcastle disease was detected in turkeys in Brazil's Santa Catarina state. Mexico and Malaysia suspended covered poultry imports from all Brazil. China, Saudi Arabia and Chile restricted specified products from Santa Catarina. Wisconsin reported another commercial HPAI detection. Alberta reported affected broiler, duck and mixed flocks. Restrictions following an African swine fever detection in Finnish wild boar are disrupting pork sales into China and Japan. Diesel futures sharpened transportation-cost exposure. Four USDA reports due later today will inform next week's outlook. SHAWN: Cattle on Feed prereport estimates point to fewer placements and marketings. Ahead of today's USDA report, analysts estimate October 1st cattle on feed at one hundred point three percent of a year earlier, up three tenths of a percent. September placements at ninety-one point seven percent, down eight point three percent. And September marketings at ninety-two point eight percent, down seven point two percent. These are prereport analyst estimates, not USDA findings. Boxed-beef prices retreated despite smaller slaughter. Choice closed Thursday at three sixty-nine forty-seven, down three twelve. Select fell four ninety-three to three fifty forty-one. The Choice Select spread widened one eighty-one to nineteen oh six, with one hundred twenty-three negotiated loads. Thursday's estimated cattle slaughter was one hundred three thousand head. Year-to-date slaughter stands seven point two percent below 2025. September beef output fell about six percent year over year despite heavier cattle. January through September beef production totaled eighteen point four one billion pounds versus nineteen point three six billion in 2025. Imported lean beef offers a different price picture. Platts assessed frozen imported nineties at three thirteen C-I-F U.S. East Coast and three zero zero F-C-A East Coast on October 21st. Argentina-origin nineties were indicated around three zero zero at the Philadelphia port of entry for November through December. National fresh eighty-fives averaged three oh two Thursday. National fresh nineties were not established October 22nd. Their last established average was three ninety on October 19th. HOST: Thursday's belly rebound fails to erase earlier weakness. The pork carcass cutout rose seventy-three cents to seventy-five twenty-three, led by bellies up six ninety-three to eighty-four fifty-nine. Butts declined two ninety-four to ninety-nine sixty-eight. Negotiated hogs averaged sixty-six forty-eight, down one twenty-two, and Thursday slaughter was four hundred ninety-seven thousand head. Processor and producer economics diverge. Sterling estimates packer margins at twelve sixty-two per head for the week ended October 17th, versus six ninety-nine the previous week. Farrow-to-finish returns slipped to seven eighty-four per head from sixteen eighty-seven. January through September pork production totaled twenty point three seven billion pounds, slightly above 2025 despite September's three percent decline. Weekly export sales for October 15th were reported at thirty-seven thousand four hundred seventy-five metric tons. Mexico slowed, while China accounted for seven thousand two hundred seventy-six tons. SHAWN: Wisconsin reports another commercial HPAI detection. State officials confirmed a thirteen thousand four hundred sixty-three bird commercial flock in Barron County on October 22nd, quarantined the premises and depopulated the birds. These are localized flock losses, not a quantified national chicken-supply change. Alberta losses span different poultry operations. Three commercial flocks confirmed October 1st through 8th totaled a reported seventy-seven thousand seventy-seven affected birds. Sixty-nine thousand one broilers in Strathcona County, two thousand four hundred forty-four duck breeders in Sturgeon County and five thousand six hundred thirty-two mixed broilers, turkeys and geese in Two Hills County. These are flock sizes, not deaths. Brazil's Newcastle restrictions disrupt trade. The reported infection involved commercial turkeys in Santa Catarina, not a confirmed nationwide broiler outbreak. Reported restrictions differ by destination. Mexico and Malaysia cover Brazilian-origin poultry shipments more broadly, while China, Saudi Arabia and Chile target specified products from Santa Catarina. Rules differ by product and destination. Thursday's U.S. broiler trade was generally steady, with some breast, wing and tender weakness. Chicken prices split by cut. For October 12th through 16th, national fresh conventional F-O-B boneless skinless breasts averaged one seventeen, down one seventy-five cents week over week. Tenderloins averaged one eleven, down two oh six cents. Boneless skinless thighs rose five thirty-eight cents to one seventy-three. Whole wings averaged one oh nine, down one twenty cents. These weekly figures are not Thursday spot quotes. The cuts did not move together. Finland's pork export access takes a hit. Following an African swine fever detection in wild boar, restrictions on Finnish pork exports to China and Japan disrupted business for Atria. The processor reported third-quarter sales of four hundred seventy-five point two million euros, up four percent, but lower Finnish export sales. It estimated a four million to five million euro 2026 operating-profit effect, including about two million in the third quarter. The European Union weighs Brazilian poultry reopening, not beef. The European Commission intends to propose restoring Brazil's eligibility to export poultry meat and honey after positive audit findings, but member states have not yet voted. The Commission does not plan to restore Brazilian beef eligibility because lifetime-compliance certification remains unresolved. Poultry importers cannot treat the proposal as an active authorization. Beef buyers face a distinct unresolved barrier. Brazilian cattle procurement remains tight. Platts reported shortened slaughter schedules as packers competed for finished cattle. Brazilian beef sellers and Chinese buyers remained apart on price after SIAL Paris. The Brazil Beef Marker was six thousand seven hundred eighty dollars per metric ton F-C-A Santos October 21st, unchanged. HOST: Energy jumps as grains diverge. December West Texas Crude rose two thirty-two to ninety-nine forty-seven a barrel and November Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel jumped sixteen eighty-eight cents a gallon to four ninety-three Thursday. December corn fell two seventy-five cents to four sixty-one a bushel. December soybean meal eased one dollar to three forty-seven thirty a short ton while November soybeans gained seven seventy-five cents to twelve fifty-three a bushel. The October 19th retail diesel average was six twenty-eight a gallon, a different price basis from Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel futures. Low Mississippi water levels remain a potential barge constraint, with no new restriction confirmed. Futures gains do not establish higher delivered freight rates. Screwworm reaches wildlife and another beef cow. An elk harvested in Pecos County was confirmed infested October 21st, the first U.S. wildlife detection in the current response. Officials are modifying an existing Texas infested zone. Separately, New Mexico reported an affected beef cow in Otero County, distinct from earlier Grant County cases. Movement requirements remain tied to designated zones rather than broad assumptions about every border route. Producers moving cattle through affected zones face inspection and treatment-documentation requirements. The October 26th reopening at Columbus, New Mexico, remains conditional. An announced date is not confirmation of unrestricted cattle movements. Cattle price transparency changes Monday. USDA plans to publish a new five-state Southern Plains aggregate of negotiated cash-cattle transactions beginning October 26th. A prerelease survey expects fewer September cattle placements. Results remain pending. Procurement radar. Affected poultry origins. Watch. Destination-specific Brazilian restrictions remain in force. The proposed EU reopening is not yet authorization. Chicken cut pricing. Watch. Weekly breast and tender averages eased while boneless thighs advanced. Watch individual...

  7. 4d ago

    THE PROTEIN PULSE — DRIVE TIME Thursday Margin Monitor | October 22nd, 2026

    THE PROTEIN PULSE — DRIVE TIMEThursday Margin Monitor | October 22nd, 2026HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Thursday Margin Monitor, October 22nd. From The Sparks Group. SHAWN: I don't care how strong the rib is if the rest of the carcass isn't pulling its weight. That's where I think this beef market is getting tested. Cattle remain scarce. That is real. But scarcity doesn't force a restaurant to keep a steak on the menu, a retailer to feature the same cut, or a grinder to ignore imported lean. Customers have choices, and they're using them. Look at pork. Bellies just took a hard hit. Chicken production is expanding. Both are competing for the same food dollar while beef packers are trying to protect the value of every animal they harvest. You can't buy the headline and hope the customer follows. You have to know which product will move, what it really costs you, and how long you'll own it. The profit is in the decision, not the prediction. HOST: Choice closed at three seventy-two fifty-nine, down seventy-one cents. Select fell six twenty to three fifty-five thirty-four. Fresh nineties at three eighty-five F-O-B. Pork cutout at seventy-four fifty, down four oh three. Bellies at seventy-seven sixty-six. Chicken breast at one seventeen. Diesel at six twenty-eight. SHAWN: Kayem is recalling about one point five eight million pounds. Texas confirmed screwworm in an elk in Pecos County. Brazil faces new poultry restrictions. Margin is determined by actual product economics, not the headline. Stay disciplined. HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group. SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

  8. 4d ago

    THE PROTEIN PULSE Thursday Margin Monitor | October 22nd, 2026

    THE PROTEIN PULSEThursday Margin Monitor | October 22nd, 2026Full Executive Briefing — Spoken ScriptHOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast, your daily market update on all things protein. This is Thursday Margin Monitor for October 22nd, 2026, from The Sparks Group. SHAWN: I don't care how strong the rib is if the rest of the carcass isn't pulling its weight. That's where I think this beef market is getting tested. Cattle remain scarce. That is real. But scarcity doesn't force a restaurant to keep a steak on the menu, a retailer to feature the same cut, or a grinder to ignore imported lean. Customers have choices, and they're using them. Look at pork. Bellies just took a hard hit. Chicken production is expanding. Both are competing for the same food dollar while beef packers are trying to protect the value of every animal they harvest. To me, this is where experience matters. You can't buy the headline and hope the customer follows. You have to know which product will move, what it really costs you, and how long you'll own it. The profit is in the decision, not the prediction. HOST: A nationwide ready-to-eat meat and poultry recall has exposed a warehouse cold-chain failure, with affected product shipped to retail and foodservice customers. Restaurant performance also offers a revealing contrast. LongHorn Steakhouse gained guests while Olive Garden lost traffic. Meanwhile, Hormel is moving to expand in value-added chicken as wholesale beef and pork values diverge. Animal health and trade remain consequential. A Texas screwworm detection raises regional livestock-movement questions, while Brazil faces new poultry restrictions in some markets even as the European Union considers restoring access for Brazilian poultry. Across the industry, the bigger picture is clear. Food safety, shifting consumer demand, changing trade relationships and uneven protein markets are creating new challenges and opportunities for businesses throughout the supply chain. SHAWN: The October 21st afternoon Choice cutout closed at three seventy-two fifty-nine, down seventy-one cents. Select fell six twenty to three fifty-five thirty-four, widening the Choice Select spread to seventeen twenty-five. Grade-flexible buyers should revisit offers. Choice heavy boneless ribeyes averaged fifteen fifty-four, while blended steer heifer cow-source eighty-one percent ground beef stood at three forty-five. Demand remains uneven across cuts. Grinding beef requires separate calculations. National fresh nineties averaged three eighty-five, eighty-fives three eighteen and fifties eighty-four. Grinders must evaluate formulation yields, origin, freight, storage and handling before switching supply. The five-area live F-O-B steer average for the week ended October 18th was two twenty-four nineteen. Wednesday cattle slaughter was estimated at one hundred ten thousand head, bringing the week-to-date total to three hundred twenty-seven thousand. Sterling estimates packer margins at positive one hundred fifty-five oh six per head and feedlot margins at negative two hundred forty-four seventy per head. Those are modeled results, not actual company earnings. December live cattle futures settled at two thirty-one thirteen, up ninety-five cents, while October feeder cattle reached three forty-seven eighty-three, up one ninety-three, on October 21st. Replacement costs remain firm despite wholesale weakness. In results released September 24th for the fiscal quarter ended August 30th, LongHorn Steakhouse posted six point two percent same-restaurant sales growth, including one point six percent higher guest counts and a four point five percent larger average check. Olive Garden increased same-restaurant sales one point one percent, but guest counts declined two point two percent while the average check rose three point four percent. The difference matters. Some diners are still choosing steak while other restaurant formats depend more on pricing than additional visits. HOST: The October 21st pork cutout dropped four oh three to seventy-four fifty. Bellies fell twelve oh one to seventy-seven sixty-six. Picnics declined nine seventeen to fifty-five fifty-one. Butts eased just forty-six cents to one oh two sixty-two. For bacon processors, the belly break creates negotiating leverage. For butt buyers, the same broad concession is not supported. Purchasing decisions should follow primal specifications, shipment timing and actual customer commitments. For October 9th to 15th, pork net export sales totaled thirty-seven thousand five hundred metric tons, up three percent from the previous week. Mexico, South Korea and China led the commitments. Physical exports totaled thirty-two thousand seven hundred metric tons. Export commitments temper the belly signal without proving wider demand strength. Wednesday hog slaughter was estimated at four hundred ninety-five thousand head, bringing the week-to-date count to one point four five nine million. Sterling estimates farrow-to-finish profits at seven eighty-four per head and packer margins at twelve sixty-two per head for the week ended October 17th. December lean hog futures settled at sixty-five seventy-three, down one forty-three, and February at sixty-seven ninety-three, down one twenty-five, on October 21st. Producers should assess forward hedging separately from current cash trade. Bacon buyers can seek concessions without assuming another wholesale decline. SHAWN: Broiler chick placements reached one hundred ninety-three point two nine eight million for the week ended October 17th, up two percent year over year, while eggs set reached two hundred forty-five point seven six four million, up three percent. Those birds cannot fill today's orders. Processors must assess when they reach market, at what weights and in which product mix. Buyers should not convert higher placements directly into expectations for cheaper breasts or wings. Breasts, tenders and wings were described as barely steady Wednesday, with dark meat fully steady. For October 12th to 16th, weekly fresh F-O-B averages were one seventeen for boneless skinless breasts and one oh nine for whole wings. On September 30th, Hormel Foods announced an agreement to acquire Brakebush Brothers for approximately one point oh six billion, subject to regulatory approval and other closing conditions. The proposed deal would add value-added chicken products and deepen Hormel's foodservice customer relationships. It is not a completed acquisition. Wisconsin's HPAI detection still warrants regional supply and movement checks. Buyers should cover nearby requirements against current offers, then reassess longer commitments as production reaches processing plants. A Newcastle disease outbreak involving turkeys in Santa Catarina has changed Brazilian poultry export eligibility. Brazil's agriculture ministry reported restrictions by Saudi Arabia and China on specified products originating in that state. Mexico and Malaysia imposed broader Brazil-origin restrictions covering specified poultry categories. Importers and distributors should review outstanding purchase contracts for eligible origin, product classification and shipment status. Where supply no longer qualifies, buyers must check eligible replacement suppliers. Canada remains a competitive destination for U.S. beef. Canadian imports of U.S. beef and beef products were valued at eight hundred sixty-nine point two million dollars in 2025, representing forty-three percent of the category's imports. Exporters should protect account-level economics against competing origins and changing delivered terms. Separately, the European Commission said it intends to propose restoring Brazilian poultry and honey import eligibility, subject to a member-state vote. Its position on Brazilian beef remains different. Importers must distinguish proposed approvals from permissions already in force. HOST: Procurement radar. Beef trim. Watch. Compare domestic fresh nineties against equivalent delivered imported frozen offers. Switch only when formulation yield and total cost justify it. Pork bellies. Wait. Negotiate against Wednesday's wholesale decline without extending inventory beyond confirmed bacon requirements. Chicken breast and wings. Hold. Cover immediate needs at current offers. Reassess longer commitments when additional placements reach processing plants. Cash cattle. Watch. Confirm negotiated trade, processing schedules and delivery availability. In affected screwworm territories, verify movement and inspection requirements before committing cattle. Freight and fuel. Watch. Review current diesel surcharges and refrigerated freight quotes before committing delivered purchases. Falling Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel futures do not guarantee lower carrier charges. Texas wildlife authorities confirmed New World screwworm in a hunter-harvested elk in Pecos County on October 21st. The Texas Animal Health Commission will revise an existing infested zone, with additional surveillance planned. Regional feeders, packers and transporters should check affected shipments. On October 17th, USDA FSIS announced a Class I recall of approximately one point five eight million pounds of Kayem ready-to-eat meat and poultry distributed to retail and foodservice customers nationwide and in Hong Kong. A customer complained of warm product at delivery. The subsequent investigation identified temperature deviations in a warehouse cooler. At the time of the announcement, no associated illnesses had been confirmed. The recall highlights the importance of cold-chain controls, traceability and removing affected products from distribution. Additional product-identification details are available in FSIS recall zero two six dash two zero two six. Mexican cattle-import reopening...

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The Protein Pulse Podcast delivers concise, commercially focused protein market intelligence for buyers, sellers, traders, procurement leaders, processors, and executives across the beef, pork, chicken, feed, and global protein markets. Each episode translates USDA data, market pricing, slaughter trends, trade flows, imports, feed costs, policy developments, and supply-chain signals into clear, practical market context. The focus is simple: cut through the noise, explain what the numbers mean, and give protein professionals the market context they need before making their next decision. Your Daily Market Update on All Things Protein.

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  • Creator
    Shawn Sparks
  • Years Active
    2026
  • Episodes
    82
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Copyright 2026 Shawn Sparks
  • Show Website
    Protein Pulse Podcast