One day, the red star on Orion's shoulder will explode. If it happened tonight, it would shine like a half Moon squeezed into a single point, cast shadows at night, and stay visible in daylight for about a year. And the first warning wouldn't come from a telescope. It would come from a tank of water under a mountain in Japan. 🎧 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6Ac2pRp4qYvJ2C7NLenHr3 ▶ Watch the video, with every source and image credit: https://youtu.be/Gu6x4eNXmaU Eight Minutes Old on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@EightMinutesOld · TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@eightminutesold · Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/eightminutesold Chapters 0:00 Tonight, a star changes 0:41 Meet Betelgeuse 1:26 The Great Dimming 2:13 A hidden companion 3:06 When will it explode? 3:49 The collapse 4:32 The warning from underground 5:22 The sky lights up 6:10 Are we in danger? 6:47 What's left behind 7:19 Has it already exploded? 7:48 Everything in the sky is a memory From 3:45 the explosion is imagined ("So let's imagine it does"); the best estimates put it about 100,000 years away. Sources • Joyce et al. 2020, ApJ 902, 63: size, mass, distance, stage (https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.09837) • Harper et al. 2017, AJ 154, 11: distance (https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.06020) • Montargès et al. 2021, Nature 594, 365: the Great Dimming dust veil (https://www.eso.org/public/news/eso2109/) • Dupree et al. 2022, ApJ 936, 18: surface mass ejection (https://arxiv.org/abs/2208.01676) • NASA Hubble (2022): https://science.nasa.gov/missions/hubble/hubble-sees-red-supergiant-star-betelgeuse-slowly-recovering-after-blowing-its-top • Goldberg, Joyce & Molnár 2024 and MacLeod et al. 2024: companion predictions (https://arxiv.org/abs/2408.09089, https://arxiv.org/abs/2409.11332) • Howell et al. 2025, Gemini North (https://noirlab.edu/public/news/noirlab2523/) • Dupree et al. 2026: the companion's wake (https://www.cfa.harvard.edu/news/cfa-scientists-detect-wake-betelgeuses-elusive-companion-star) • Montargès et al. 2026, ESO VLT/SPHERE (https://www.eso.org/public/news/eso2611/) • Saio et al. 2023 (carbon-burning hypothesis) and Molnár, Joyce & Leung 2023 (rebuttal): https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.00287, https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.05600 • Anderson et al. 2014, ApJ 786, 67: Type II supernova brightness and plateau (https://arxiv.org/abs/1403.7091) • Super-Kamiokande Collaboration 2024, PTEP 103H01: neutrino counts for a Betelgeuse supernova (https://academic.oup.com/ptep/article/2024/10/103H01/7739178) • KamLAND & Super-K 2024: pre-supernova neutrino alert (https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.09920) • SNEWS 2.0, Al Kharusi et al. 2021 (https://arxiv.org/abs/2011.00035) • Gehrels et al. 2003, ApJ 585, 1169: ozone-damage distance (https://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0211361) • Brunton et al. 2023, ApJ 947, 42: X-ray danger zone (https://chandra.cfa.harvard.edu/press/23_releases/press_042023.html) • Sukhbold et al. 2016, ApJ 821, 38: which stars explode, neutron star or black hole (https://arxiv.org/abs/1510.04643) Labels: in the video every claim carries an on-screen label (FACT, THEORY, ESTIMATE, HYPOTHESIS, SPECULATION); in this audio edition the narration says out loud when something is an estimate or a thought experiment. Narration: synthetic voice. Music: original. #space #astronomy #science #eightminutesold