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Cascadia’s sustainability think tank brings you a feed of its latest research articles, in text-to-audio recordings. Learn how the region can advance abundant housing for vibrant communities; reform our democratic systems and elections to honor the public’s priorities, including its support for climate solutions; make a just transition away from fossil fuels and into a 21st-century energy economy; and model forestry and agricultural practices that rebuild our soils, ecosystems, and rural economies. View articles in full at sightline.org.

  1. HÁ 15 H

    No More 48-Candidate Races Reasonable filing fees would help voters, parties, and serious contenders alike in Alaska and Portland. Case Study: Alaska's 2022 US House seat race Case study: Portland's 2024 city council election A better approach Charge a

    A surplus of candidates can ruin any political campaign, and it's happened twice in recent groundbreaking elections in Cascadia. Fortunately, neighboring jurisdictions have demonstrated the solution to this problem: raise filing fees. Alaska and Portland each recently debuted a new, much-anticipated ranked choice voting method. In both places, the trouble was that putting your name on the ballot was so easy (costing less than a tank of gas for a Ford F-150) that the elections were flooded with candidates. The result, in both Alaska and Portland, was an inaugural campaign that tried voters' patience with teeming lists of candidates, many of them narcissistic dreamers with no intention of campaigning, no support from key constituencies, and no chance of winning. One fix to this surplus is simple: charge candidates a filing fee large enough to dissuade dilettantes without deterring contenders. Montana, Alaska's closest cousin among the states, and Portland's urban counterparts in neighboring Washington charge filing fees more than ten times as high. That's why these Cascadian jurisdictions do not attract candidates like fishing derbies draw anglers. Alaska's 2022 inaugural election was run under its top-four law. In top-four, voters choose four finalists in a primary election and then pick among them in a ranked choice voting general election. Voters for an open US House seat confronted a ballot overloaded with 48 candidates (pictured on the website). The state's new election plan was supposed to make things better; instead, voters got a ballot as daunting as The Cheesecake Factory's menu. This race was a special election for the state's sole US House seat, unexpectedly vacated by the death of Rep. Don Young after 49 years in office. The absence of an incumbent and the novelty of the new rules recruited a bumper crop of candidates, and the nominal filing fee of just $100 did nothing to separate the chaff from the grain. For one Benjamin Franklin, you could get your name on every ballot and in every voters' guide in the state and - who knows? - maybe your candidacy would catch fire. However, most did not catch even a spark, and few candidates raised money or ran actual campaigns. Just one-fifth of candidates cracked 2 percent of the vote. At the bottom of the pack, some 19 candidates won fewer than 100 votes each. The same pattern emerged in Portland. The city 's 2024 election was the inaugural run of its new election system, which uses a single round of ranked choice voting for all races. Some 118 candidates surged into municipal contests. City Council Districts 3 and 4 each had 30 candidates for their three seats. (See sample ballots in the online version of this article.) Such races make voting a morass and campaigning a Black Friday crowd scene. At some debates, each candidate got speaking time measured in seconds. In the end, as in Alaska, voters ignored most candidates. In District 4, for example, only 11 voters picked L Christopher Regis. He had enough support to field a kickball team in one of Portland's adult co-ed leagues but fell 11,251 votes short of winning a council seat. Regis was not alone. In Districts 3 and 4 combined, only a quarter of candidates crossed the 2 percent threshold. Most of the also-rans did not actually run. They just made the process of voting feel like scrolling through the dross on Netflix. The sudden opening of every elected office in the city, all at the same time, brought the crush of candidates. Empty chairs attract aspirants. What's more, excitement about the new system itself drew participation, making more candidates believe they could compete. But the fact that securing a spot on the ballot cost nothing but $75 for council or $100 for mayor amplified the gold rush spirit. Low filing fees for open seats elsewhere have also attracted swollen fields of candidates. In 2003, for example, a special election recalled the sitting governor of California, Gray Davis, and voters' plurality winne...

    13min

  2. HÁ 15 H

    Will an Electoral Glitch Send a Republican to Patty Murray's Seat in 2028? Washington's top-two primary elections can misfire - but there's an easy fix. A glitch in top-two The Upthegrove anomaly Is the anomaly curable? Ranked top-two It's time Appendix

    When six-term US Senator Patty Murray is up for reelection in 2028, the Washington state leader will be 78 years old. If she does not retire on her own, she may well find herself challenged by younger Democrats, as is now happening to 79-year-old Senator Ed Markey of Massachusetts. Gerontocracy is out of vogue among Democrats; many blame their party's loss of the presidency on 81-year-old Joe Biden's delay in stepping aside. If Murray forgoes the race, expect a stampede of eager Democrats hoping to succeed her. Her seat has not been vacant since 1992, so every ambitious politician in the Evergreen State will be eyeing it. Indeed, during her 2022 run for reelection, when no other big-name Democrats entered the race, Murray still drew 17 primary challengers. In Alaska that same year, when a US House seat opened for the first time in decades upon the death of Rep. Don Young, who held the office for 49 years, some 48 candidates threw their hats into the ring. Imagine how many will file if (and when) Murray steps aside. The line of Democratic contenders could resemble the throngs of hikers on the trail to Camp Muir on a summer weekend. In other words, it will practically be a mob scene. Unlike in Alaska's pioneering election system, though, platoons of candidates can be a problem in Washington - a big problem. That's because Washington's unusual top-two elections are haunted by a mathematical anomaly that could hand Murray's seat to a Republican, even in deep-blue Washington. Fortunately there are fixes, and one of them is about to debut in Seattle: unaltered top-two in general elections combined with a targeted occasional use of ranked choice voting in certain overcrowded primary elections. (For brevity, we'll call it "ranked top-two.") If the state legislature adopts this Seattle plan in 2026, it could be up and running statewide in time for the August 2028 US Senate primary. To understand ranked top-two, you need to understand the anomaly, in which top-two misfires and elects a less-popular candidate over a more-popular one. The easiest way to understand it is through the 2024 election of Dave Upthegrove, a veteran Democrat, to the state's public lands commissioner post. In that race, Upthegrove came within a hair's breadth of losing the primary, in which two Republicans and five Democrats faced off. The five Democrats gained 57 percent of the 1.9 million votes cast, but they divided their share many ways. During most of the vote-counting process, the two Republicans led, with 22 percent for Jaime Herrera Beutler and 21 percent for Sue Kuehl Pederson. Only when the final batch of ballots was tallied, days after the election, did Upthegrove's count exceed Pederson's - and by only 49 votes. Had he fallen short, the general election would have been between Republicans Beutler and Pederson, and one of them would be holding the office now. Instead, after clearing the primary, Upthegrove quickly consolidated Democrats' support and won the general with a five-point margin. A similar scenario unfolded in 2016, when three Democrats split the field for state treasurer, two Republicans advanced to the general election, and the state elected one of them, Duane Davidson. What's more, Davidson, who ended up being a one-term office holder, was the only Republican in that seat in six decades. The same thing could happen in an open US Senate race in 2028: a huge field of Democrats could hand the race to two Republicans. The Upthegrove anomaly in top-two is specific and mathematical. It's not just that both finalists are from the same party. That's normal in districts that lean red or blue. For instance, of the nine races for open congressional seats in Washington since the advent of top-two in 2008, three of them have paired two members of the same party. Most recently, in 2020, Marilyn Strickland and Beth Doglio, both Democrats, competed for the US House seat in District 10. Indeed, such same-party runoffs are a feature of top-two, not a bug...

    14min

  3. HÁ 6 DIAS

    Yukoners to Weigh in on Ranked Voting Will Alaska's neighbor be the next to upgrade its elections? How ranked voting would work in the Yukon What could ranked voting do for Yukoners? Preventing spoiled elections with real voter choice Incentives for mor

    If you had a chance to overhaul your government, where would you begin? Last year, 38 Yukoners from every corner of the territory stepped up to answer that question in a citizens' assembly on electoral reform. Their recommendation? Upgrade the Yukon Legislative Assembly's first-past-the-post elections to ranked voting, much like Alaskans did in 2020. Voting is already underway for a statewide plebiscite on the assembly's reform of choice. Though the vote is advisory, two of the Yukon's three major parties have committed to respecting the will of the voters if they win control of the assembly this year. So, will the reform that let Alaskans vote their values and produced a more politically diverse and functional legislature inspire a similar change in the Yukon? Residents will know more after polls close at 8:00 p.m. on November 3. In general elections, rather than filling in a single ballot bubble for a candidate for member of the legislative assembly (MLA) in their district, voters could rank party nominees in order of preference, starting with their first choice for MLA, then second, and so on. If no candidate were to win a majority in the first round of tallying, officials would eliminate the lowest-performing candidate, redistributing their votes to voters' second choices. The process would continue until a candidate won a majority, or as close to a majority as possible. (Elections Yukon has an overview on their website.) In general elections, rather than filling in a single ballot bubble for a candidate for member of the legislative assembly (MLA) in their district, voters could rank party nominees in order of preference, starting with their first choice for MLA, then second, and so on.2 If no candidate were to win a majority in the first round of tallying, officials would eliminate the lowest-performing candidate, redistributing their votes to voters' second choices. The process would continue until a candidate won a majority, or as close to a majority as possible. Elections Yukon has published an overview here. In Alaska, the ranked voting upgrade has prevented "spoiled" elections, given voters more viable choices, encouraged candidates to work toward common goals, and created a cross-partisan, solutions-focused legislature. Though the Yukon's governmental structure and political makeup differ from Alaska, similar dynamics and incentives would likely carry over. In general elections, the Yukon's single-member electoral districts are prone to the same plurality winner problem that prompted Alaskans to adopt ranked voting in the first place. When there are more than two candidates in the running, as has been the case in 94 percent of general election assembly contests since 2000, voting blocs may fracture. If like-minded voters split their vote between two similar candidates, a conservative district can send a liberal MLA to office (or vice versa) with only plurality support - more votes than anyone else, but not reflective of majority preference. As such, voters may feel compelled to vote strategically, rather than for their favorite candidate, to avoid splitting the vote. At its most extreme, vote-splitting can deliver one party a number of seats that is vastly out of line with what the voters wanted. Take for example the 2001 British Columbia general election. BC Liberals won 97 percent of seats in the provincial assembly with only 58 percent of the popular vote, all because the NDP and Green Party divvied up a similar voter base. Could the same thing happen in the Yukon? To some degree, it already does; just not to the benefit of any one party. For the last three elections, MLAs who got less than 50 percent of the vote in their district won well over half of assembly seats: 12 members in the 2021 election, 17 members in 2016, and 16 in 2011. In other words, it's possible for every riding to go the way of Kluane, where MLA Wade Istchenko has won three consecutive elections even though most voters preferred other can...

    7min

  4. HÁ 6 DIAS

    To Build Fast, Think Small How re-legalizing small apartment buildings would spur the homes city dwellers need now. Big projects are not delivering enough homes

    Speed matters. And to people looking for a home today, it matters a great deal whether that home is built next year, or in ten. If Cascadia's leaders really believed in speed, then they would focus more on re-legalizing small, neighborhood-size buildings with 6 to 12 homes each. But despite recent reforms, small apartment buildings remain illegal almost everywhere in Cascadian cities and across North America. Meanwhile, advocates and leaders in the region have legalized medium-sized and large apartment buildings via transit-oriented development, which smartly co-locates new apartment homes alongside transit infrastructure. California now allows up to 9 stories next to major transit stops, Washington up to 6, and British Columbia up to 20. This is praiseworthy progress, but it's limited to larger buildings that will take many years to plan and build. An example from our pro-housing forbearers illustrates just how long we might wait for larger projects to materialize: in 2014, 31-year-old Graham Jones spoke hopefully to Vancouver City Council and then-Mayor Gregor Robertson, pleading for more homes at the old Oakridge Mall site. Jones asked council to, quote "please consider that this project will be phased in over the next 10-15 years. It will represent current city residents, but also many who are not represented today," endquote. That was 11 years ago; Robertson is now the federal housing minister; and no one has yet moved into the Oakridge development. The fastest way - the only fast way - to build a lot of homes is simple: re-legalize small apartment buildings, generally no taller than a mature tree, in all neighborhoods, just like they used to be. All other solutions ask today's beleaguered 31-year-olds to wait many years to see results. For politicians working within four-year electoral windows, moving fast means thinking small. It's the only way to deliver the new homes their constituents need within a single term of office. Small apartment buildings have been all but illegal to build here in Vancouver for nearly a century. City leaders began implementing zoning restrictions in the 1920s "largely to prevent the intrusion of apartment houses in single- or two-family areas," wrote Harland Bartholomew, who drew Vancouver's first zoning map. In the US, the Supreme Court justified zoning regulations in 1926, writing: "the apartment house is a mere parasite." As a result, much of Vancouver's planning energy has gone into transit-oriented towers, often on old industrial sites, limiting new homes to fewer centralized nodes. This political compromise has been in place locally for decades, known as The Grand Bargain: exclusively zoned land remains so, while towers on busy streets accommodate some growth, aka "high-rise density, low-scale suburbia, little in between." The Grand Bargain promises new homes. Just not built quickly, or in the nicest places, or at the lowest cost. It's an attempted sleight of hand by civic leaders: they promise greater access to nice homes in desirable neighborhoods, but they deliver large apartment buildings, slowly, on just 10 percent of the city's land. Large apartment buildings on busy streets are wonderful; this article was written in one. But zoning that proscribes the housing types between towers and single-detached homes leaves much of the land in our cities off-limits - and many residents or would-be residents without affordable options to call home. The redevelopment of False Creek's north shore by Concord Pacific is Vancouver's largest and most significant example of Grand Bargain planning. It was a visionary project that reshaped the city for the better and gave Vancouver its iconic skyline. But this project also underlines how long even successful megaprojects can take to deliver the full measure of homes they promise. At the site's eastern end, fully 40 years after it broke ground, 380,000 square feet of prime, waterfront land still sit barren and undeveloped. A similar story has played...

    6min

  5. HÁ 6 DIAS

    Time to Tune Up Washington's Primaries Once the most innovative in the nation, the top-two model is showing cracks. Here's how the Evergreen State can upgrade. Top-two primaries: A step in the right direction… …But there have been bumps in the road

    On September 4, 2024, Democrats across Washington State let out a collective sigh of relief. A recount of the primary election finally confirmed that one of their own, then-King County Councilor Dave Upthegrove, would appear on the November ballot. Even though Democrats had won 270,000 more votes than Republicans in the primary for Commissioner of Public Lands, Upthegrove squeaked into second place by just 49 votes. This math story problem gone awry is a hiccup of Washington's top-two primaries, in which the two candidates with the most votes, regardless of party, square off in the general election. Democratic voters split their majority five ways, allowing two Republicans to float toward the top of the pool with a combined 43 percent of the vote. Only the narrowest of margins spared blue-leaning Washington an all-Republican ticket in the general election. (It wouldn't have been the first time.) So do Washington's nonpartisan top-two primaries need to go? Certainly not. Two decades of research point to their overall positive impact on elections and governance. Compared with the 47 states that use partisan primaries, the top-two model has a depolarizing effect on lawmakers, gives candidates an incentive to appeal to wider audiences, and turns out a more representative electorate. But while Washingtonians could claim for years to be leading the pack on primary reform, the top-two model has also stumbled, occasionally producing backward results and unfavorable conditions for third parties. Since 2020, Alaska's top-four primaries and ranked choice general elections have avoided top-two's tripping points while still retaining and building on its positive qualities. Washington's not down and out by any means; with a simple top-four (or top-five) tune-up, Evergreen state voters could get the same results. In 2004, Washington voters approved Initiative 872, which created top-two unified (or nonpartisan) primaries. In these races, all candidates appear on the ballot together and the top two vote-getters (of any party) advance to the general election. California adopted the model six years later. Most states hold partisan primaries, which are exclusive to candidates of a given major party and tend to produce combative campaigns and extreme legislators. But reformers theorized that unifying the races - i.e., making them nonpartisan and allowing all voters to participate - would produce more moderate legislators who better represented the majority of voters. They were right. Political polarization stabilized in the California and Washington legislatures post-reform while the problem worsened in most states with partisan primaries. Why such a dramatic difference? For one thing, unified primaries tend to turn out more voters that better represent the overall electorate than partisan primaries, which skew older, whiter, wealthier, and, some researchers suggest, more ideologically extreme than those who show up for general elections. Because Washington's unified primary voters look more like the general voting public than most other states, candidates and lawmakers have cause to court voters from all sides (not just a narrow base) to secure one of the top two spots. Another key element is that the top two candidates regardless of party advance out of the primary. Two Democrats or two Republicans can face off in the general election if an area skews heavily toward either party. Voters of the dominant party get more options in the general election, while voters in the political minority can sometimes "play kingmaker," putting a more moderate candidate over the top. There's no better illustration of the dynamics top-two has introduced than Washington's Fourth Congressional District. About 60 percent of voters in the district backed Donald Trump in 2016, 2020, and 2024. But Rep. Dan Newhouse, one of only two US House Republicans to vote to impeach Donald Trump and win reelection in 2022, has won out over a more conservative fellow Republican i...

    10min

  6. 29 DE SET.

    For Oregonians, Better Elections Are Hidden in Plain Sight The state's constitution lets localities opt for methods that better reflect their mix of voters. Common models of unstable representation Bloc voting doesn't stack up Numbered seats can be prec

    In 2024, Democrat-endorsed candidates swept all seven seats on the Bend Oregon, city council - even though city elections are technically nonpartisan. Democrats certainly outnumber Republicans in Bend, but 20 percent of city voters are registered with the G.O.P., and many more are not affiliated or are registered with smaller parties. Those voters don't get their views represented in their city government. In southern Oregon's Jackson County, the representation failure is reversed. Democratic or Independent candidates have won more than 40 percent of the vote for every county commissioner contest over the last five general elections - but Republicans consistently hold all three seats. Even though county voters are split between the two major parties, Democrats are locked out of county policy decisions. Sightline catalogued voting methods in all Oregon counties and the 50 most populous cities (view and download the list here). The findings: Almost all of Oregon's cities and counties operate with election methods that tend to fall into the same pattern of misrepresentation. These local governments use outdated, easily gamed voting methods. Fortunately, Oregon's constitution, unlike those of neighboring states, enables localities to choose a more effective path: proportional representation. Nearly all local governments in Oregon - every county and all but one of the state's 50 largest cities - use one of three methods of electing councils and commissions, or some combination. While each of them can, and often does, achieve adequate representation for residents, all three are susceptible to political manipulation and to oscillation between political extremes. Bloc voting can shift governing bodies wholesale based on whatever group turns out the most voters. At-large positions similarly give majority viewpoints unfair sway and set up additional avenues for political gamesmanship. And single-winner wards (or districts) put voters at the mercy of artificial lines, including gerrymandering. Voters in more than one-third of Oregon's 50 largest cities and many more smaller towns, from Baker City to Yachats and Lake Oswego to Redmond, are familiar with bloc voting, even if they don't know it by name; it's a common method for electing multiple people to city council at once. But those candidates are not assured to reflect the diversity of public preferences. With bloc voting, voters get the same number of votes as there are council seats up for election. In a three-seat election, for example, voters pick their three choices from the list of all candidates, and the three with the most votes win spots on the council. Some cities use bloc voting for all seats at once, while others elect some of their members in midterm years and the rest in presidential years. Bloc voting might seem like a simple method - choose three, elect three - but the outcomes can belie what voting is supposed to achieve. Instead of electing a council that can represent everyone, whichever group or faction gets the most votes can easily win all the seats. In partisan elections, bloc voting frequently means that the party with the most votes sweeps the board; in nonpartisan elections, candidates on either side of local wedge issues (like police funding or low-income housing) might win every single position even if voters are closely divided. A small shift in voter preference can flip half or all of a local council, so residents might have to endure dramatic policy swings; a policing or housing ordinance adopted one year could be reversed the next. Plus, when votes are close, there's no guarantee that the top vote-getters are actually the most popular candidates. Take the city of Forest Grove, for example. In 2024, six candidates ran for the three open seats in a bloc voting election, and all received between 12 and 19 percent of the vote. The third-place winner, Brian Schimmel, beat out next-place runner-up, Peter Truax, by less than half a percentage point. With few...

    11min

  7. 15 DE SET.

    Homes on Wheels Are Filling a Big Gap in Portland Three personal stories show how these small, affordable, flexible homes provide big solutions for families. A fast solution for a family in crisis Tiny homes on wheels: A Portland success story A grandma

    The Maine family needed a cheaper place for one of them to live. And quickly. It was 2024. Synia Maine, 56, had just developed a back injury so severe that she had to retire from her career as a hairstylist a decade earlier than planned. Suddenly, she had increased medical bills and no income. Her daughter-in-law, Ember DeVaul, recounted that they'd explored multiple options to try to keep Synia in Arizona, where she lived. Even the lowest-cost housing option, manufactured homes, required a permanent foundation and tens of thousands of dollars in permitting costs. Ember and her husband, who live in East Portland, looked into converting their own garage into housing. Only one contractor bothered to reply to them after they stated their budget was just $100,000. The verdict? It would take $150,000 minimum to convert the garage, but the resale value of the property would only increase by half that amount. Another issue was the estimated six months to get through design and permitting. "We didn't have time to wait," Ember said. Because Synia was an independent contractor, she didn't have health insurance, and she had used up her savings just to keep up with the bills. "It's crazy how fast everything can change," said Ember. Kol Peterson, the sole contractor who showed up at Ember's home, proposed another idea: a tiny home on wheels. Unlike a traditional backyard cottage, tiny homes on wheels and recreational vehicles (RVs) are legally considered vehicles. This means that they aren't subject to the building permit process and its associated fees. All that the city requires is an additional utility connection, or access to the main house if the external dwelling doesn't have internal plumbing. "It ended up being realistically our only option, other than her being homeless, really," said Ember. Synia ended up settling on a park model RV, which is larger and designed as a long-term residence rather than for cross-country voyages. Even with upgrades like four-season insulation and a 35-year warranty on the roof, the total cost came to $104,000. Adding the water and sewer connection only cost another $5,000. The new home is being delivered in mid-September. Though it's intended to be permanent, the fact that it could move elsewhere in the future made everyone more comfortable. Ember recalled, "She is just so scared of being a burden. If she doesn't want to live with us anymore, she can take it somewhere else and not feel indebted to us." Synia is lucky that her son and daughter-in-law moved to Portland five years ago. It's possibly the only city in the United States that has fully legalized living in wheeled dwellings on residential lots instead of just within commercial RV parks. In both of the Arizona cities where Synia's other daughters live, Synia's new living arrangement would be illegal, as it is in the vast majority of North American jurisdictions. Portland first started creating a legal pathway to this low-cost shelter option in 2017, after Luz Gomez, an immigrant from Honduras, brought a spotlight to the issue alongside the Leaven Community, a faith group in NE Portland she was involved with. At the time it was estimated that at least 100 of these homes already existed illegally, and their residents could lose their homes if neighbors reported them. City Commissioner Eudaly, elected to city council as a housing advocate, directed the Bureau of Development Services to stop enforcing prohibitions against them in 2017. Four years later, Portland passed an ordinance fully legalizing tiny homes on wheels and RVs as permanent housing options on residential lots with an existing home. Because so little paperwork is required, there is no official count of how many Portlanders live in homes on wheels. But it's likely more common than people realize. Peterson, the contractor who worked on Synia's project, counted more tiny homes on wheels and occupied RVs in his neighborhood than traditional ADUs on foundations back in 2020. In other ...

    14min

  8. 8 DE SET.

    How Cascadia Can Maintain Its Heat Pump Momentum Three tools to help the region's low-income families afford more efficient heating and cooling systems - even as public dollars dry up. Amid dwindling subsidies, Cascadians face heat pump sticker shock St

    Meeting Cascadia's climate goals will require millions of households to stop burning fossil fuels for warmth. In Oregon and Washington, buildings emit more pollution than any other sector besides transportation. (The building sector is the third highest emitting in British Columbia and Idaho, and fifth in Montana.) Heat pumps powered by renewable electricity are what the International Energy Agency calls the "proven technology of choice to decarbonize heating," and several Cascadian jurisdictions are working hard to expand access to the technology. Oregon, for example, set itself a goal of heat pumps accounting for 65 percent of new residential heating, cooling, and water heating equipment sales by 2030. British Columbia resolved for all new space and water heating equipment sales and installations to be at least 100 percent efficient by 2030, a standard that favors heat pumps, which can exceed this threshold. Heat pumps have now outsold gas furnaces and central air conditioners for two consecutive years in Cascadia; nearly three heat pumps sold for every two gas furnaces in 2023. Still, heat pumps are prohibitively expensive in upfront costs, and that fact, coupled with tightening public budgets, could threaten their rapid scale-up, especially among low-income families. In this challenging context, leaders in Cascadia would do well to direct their limited treasuries of funds for public subsidies toward low-income households for whom heat pumps offer the biggest reductions in both utility bills and greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time, policymakers can support creative funding models, such as tariffed on-bill investments and green banks, to help more households get heat pumps installed. They can also strengthen building codes to ensure heat pumps are installed in new homes, avoiding costly future retrofits. This multi-pronged approach stretches scarce public dollars, while still reaching families that stand to benefit most from these clean, cost-saving, and comfortable systems. Many families, particularly those with low incomes, cannot afford heat pumps. A medium-efficiency heat pump can cost between $14,000 and $22,000 in Cascadian states. The median heat pump costs $8,200 more than installing fossil-fuel heating equipment (such as a gas boiler) and air conditioning in Oregon; in Montana, that figure is $16,200. Steep costs stem from expensive manufacturing and labor, installer shortages and inexperience, the need for electrical upgrades in some homes, and the added cost of backup heating systems where required. Governments have stepped in to help. The 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) provides rebates of up to $8,000 for low-income households purchasing medium- or high-efficiency heat pumps. These rebates have so far withstood roll-back attempts by the Trump administration; Oregon and Washington have already secured hundreds of millions of federal dollars to launch their rebate programs. (Montana has paused its rebate rollout, while Idaho has provided no public timeline.) But the IRA rebates are a one-time, capped allocation, and the Trump administration eliminated tax incentives for energy-efficient home improvements in July 2025, including heat pumps. States and provinces also subsidize heat pumps, but tight budgets have led to substantial cutbacks. Washington scaled back funding for heat pump programs from $80 million in the 2023 budget cycle to $30 million in 2025. Oregon lawmakers appropriated $25 million to heat pump rebates in 2022 and added another $4 million in 2024, but allocated no new funds in 2025. British Columbia lowered its heat pump program budget from Can$150 million in 2024 to Can$50 million in 2025. (Idaho and Montana do not offer any state-funded heat pump rebates.) Several utilities in the region chip in heat pump rebates of their own, though amounts tend to be modest. For example, Puget Sound Energy offers $3,900 rebates to low-income households, and Idaho Power offers $500. Crucial as they a...

    18min
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Cascadia’s sustainability think tank brings you a feed of its latest research articles, in text-to-audio recordings. Learn how the region can advance abundant housing for vibrant communities; reform our democratic systems and elections to honor the public’s priorities, including its support for climate solutions; make a just transition away from fossil fuels and into a 21st-century energy economy; and model forestry and agricultural practices that rebuild our soils, ecosystems, and rural economies. View articles in full at sightline.org.

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