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Inferred Research

Intelligence for the AI economy. Briefings on the forces reshaping technology — venture capital, policy moves, OSS and frontier models, compute infrastructure, China, energy, and the tools and technology moving the industry. Get Inferred in your inbox https://inferredresearch.com

Episodes

  1. S&P 500 CAPE Hits Dot-Com-Era High Amid AI Spending Surge

    2D AGO

    S&P 500 CAPE Hits Dot-Com-Era High Amid AI Spending Surge

    The S&P 500's CAPE ratio has returned to dot-com era heights, fueled by a surge in AI-related investment. However, a deepening divide has emerged: while AI-related categories now drive a substantial share of U.S. GDP growth, aggregate productivity data has yet to show a matching breakout. In this episode, we explore the widening gap between AI investment and measurable output—and why it sits at the center of the current valuation debate. In this episode: The Valuation Peak: Why the S&P 500's CAPE ratio hit 39.8, a level not seen since the dot-com era, and the role of AI optimism in driving it. The Investment Engine: Breaking down the St. Louis Fed data showing AI-related categories contributed 39% of total GDP growth through Q3 2025. The Productivity Paradox: Why San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly compares the AI arc to the long adoption curve of electricity. Executive Confidence vs. Revenue Data: Analysis of the Atlanta Fed survey showing a disconnect between internal AI gains and measurable financial results. Concentration Risk: Why the top 10 companies now dominate global equity market weighting and what this narrow leadership means for index stability. Benchmarks to Watch: The upcoming BLS and BEA productivity releases as the ultimate test for AI's impact on economic output. Topics: CAPE ratio, AI productivity, market concentration, valuation, Federal Reserve, Peter Oppenheimer, Mary Daly Get Inferred in your inbox https://inferredresearch.com

    4 min

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Intelligence for the AI economy. Briefings on the forces reshaping technology — venture capital, policy moves, OSS and frontier models, compute infrastructure, China, energy, and the tools and technology moving the industry. Get Inferred in your inbox https://inferredresearch.com